Patterned-ground plant communities along a bioclimate gradient in the High Arctic, Canada

Non-sorted circles, non-sorted polygons, and earth hummocks are common ground-surface features ill arctic regions. The), are caused by a variety of physical processes that Occur in permafrost regions including contraction cracking and frost heave. Here we describe the vegetation of patterned-ground forms on zonal sites at three location!: along an N-S transect through the High Arctic of Canada. We made 75 releves on patterned-ground features (circles, polygons, earth hummocks) and adjacent tundra (Interpolygon, intercircle, interhummock areas) and identified and classified the vegetation according to the Braun-Blanquet Method. Environmental factors were correlated with the vegetation data using a nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordination (NMDS). We identified eleven commnunities: (1) Puccinellia angustata-Papaver radicalum community in xeromesic non-sorted polygons of subzone A of the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map; (2) Saxifraga-Parmelia omphalodes ssp. glacialis community in hydromesic interpolygon areas of subzone A; (3) Hypogymnia subobscura-Lecanora epibryon community In xeromesic non-sorted polygons of subzone B; (4) Orthotrichum speciosum-Salix arctica community In xeromesic interpolygon areas of subzone B; (5) Cochlearia groenlandica-Luzula nivalis community in hydromesic earth Mocks Of subzone B; (6) Salix arctica-Eriophorum angustifolium ssp. triste community in hygric earth hummocks of subzone 13; (7) Puccinellia angustata-Potentilla vahliana community in xeromesic non-sorted circles and bare patches of subzone Q (8) Dryas integrifolia-Carex rupestris community in xeromesic intercircle areas and vegetated patches of subzone C; (9) Braya glabella ssp. purpurascens-Dryas integrifolia community In hydromesic non-sorted circles of subzone Q (10) Dryas integrifolia-Carex aquatilis community in hydromesic intercircle areas of subzone C; and (11) Eriophorum angustifolium ssp. triste-Carex aquatilis community ill hygric intercircle areas of subzone C. The NMDS ordination displayed the vegetation types with respect to complex environmental gradients. The first axis of the ordination corresponds to a complex soil moisture gradient and the second axis corresponds to a complex geology/elevation/climate gradient. The tundra plots have a greater moss and graminoid cover than the adjacent frost-heave communities. In general, frost-heave features have greater thaw depths, more bare ground, thinner organic horizons, and lower soil moisture than the surrounding tundra. The morphology of the investigated patterned ground forms changes along the climatic gradient, with non-sorted pollygons dominating in the northernmost sites and non-sorted circles dominating, in the southern sites.

Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: An EMIC Intercomparison

This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to 1) quantify the climate change commitment of different radiative forcing trajectories and 2) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible on human time scales. All commitment simulations follow the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to year 2300. Most EMICs simulate substantial surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is weakened temporarily and recovers to near-preindustrial values in most models for RCPs 2.6-6.0. The MOC weakening is more persistent for RCP8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions after 2300 results in slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. At year 3000 atmospheric CO2 is still at more than half its year-2300 level in all EMICs for RCPs 4.5-8.5. Surface air temperature remains constant or decreases slightly and thermosteric sea level rise continues for centuries after elimination of CO2 emissions in all EMICs. Restoration of atmospheric CO2 from RCP to preindustrial levels over 100-1000 years requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and does not result in the simultaneous return to preindustrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level response exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2.

Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison.

The evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in 30 models of varying complexity is examined under four distinct Representative Concentration Pathways. The models include 25 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) or Earth System Models (ESMs) that submitted simulations in support of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and 5 Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs). While none of the models incorporated the additional effects of ice sheet melting, they all projected very similar behaviour during the 21st century. Over this period the strength of MOC reduced by a best estimate of 22% (18%–25%; 5%–95% confidence limits) for RCP2.6, 26% (23%–30%) for RCP4.5, 29% (23%–35%) for RCP6.0 and 40% (36%–44%) for RCP8.5. Two of the models eventually realized a slow shutdown of the MOC under RCP8.5, although no model exhibited an abrupt change of the MOC. Through analysis of the freshwater flux across 30°–32°S into the Atlantic, it was found that 40% of the CMIP5 models were in a bistable regime of the MOC for the duration of their RCP integrations. The results support previous assessments that it is very unlikely that the MOC will undergo an abrupt change to an off state as a consequence of global warming.