On the use of Cramér-Rao minimum variance bounds for the design of magnetic resonance spectroscopy experiments

Localized Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (MRS) is in widespread use for clinical brain research. Standard acquisition sequences to obtain one-dimensional spectra suffer from substantial overlap of spectral contributions from many metabolites. Therefore, specially tuned editing sequences or two-dimensional acquisition schemes are applied to extend the information content. Tuning specific acquisition parameters allows to make the sequences more efficient or more specific for certain target metabolites. Cramér-Rao bounds have been used in other fields for optimization of experiments and are now shown to be very useful as design criteria for localized MRS sequence optimization. The principle is illustrated for one- and two-dimensional MRS, in particular the 2D separation experiment, where the usual restriction to equidistant echo time spacings and equal acquisition times per echo time can be abolished. Particular emphasis is placed on optimizing experiments for quantification of GABA and glutamate. The basic principles are verified by Monte Carlo simulations and in vivo for repeated acquisitions of generalized two-dimensional separation brain spectra obtained from healthy subjects and expanded by bootstrapping for better definition of the quantification uncertainties.

Small aliquot and single grain IRSL and post-IR IRSL dating of fluvial and alluvial sediments from the Pativilca valley, Peru

Infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) and post-IR IRSL are applied to small aliquots and single grains to determine the equivalent dose (De) of eleven alluvial and fluvial sediment samples collected in the Pativilca valley, Central Peru at ca. 10°S latitude. Small aliquot De distributions are rather symmetric and display over-dispersion values between 15 and 46%. Small aliquot g-values range between 4 and 8% per decade for the IRSL and 1 and 2% per decade for the post-IR IRSL signal. The single grain De distributions are highly over-dispersed with some of them skewed to higher doses, implying partial bleaching; this is especially true for the post-IR IRSL. Measurements of a modern analog reveal that residuals due to partial bleaching are present in both the IRSL as well as the post-IR IRSL signal. The g-values of individual grains exhibit a wide range with high individual uncertainties and might contribute significantly to the spread of the single grain De values, at least for the IRSL data. Electron Microprobe Analysis performed on single grains reveal that a varying K-content can be excluded as the origin of over-dispersion. Final ages for the different approaches are calculated using the Central Age Model and the Minimum Age Model (MAM). The samples are grouped into well-beached, potentially well-bleached and partially bleached according to the evaluation of the single grain distributions and the agreement of age estimates between methods. The application of the MAM to the single grain data resulted in consistent age estimates for both the fading corrected IRSL and the post-IR IRSL ages, and suggests that both approaches are suitable for dating these samples. Keywords

The effects of isoflurane minimum alveolar concentration on withdrawal reflex activity evoked by repeated transcutaneous electrical stimulation in ponies

The aim of this study was to quantify the effects of isoflurane at approximately the minimum alveolar concentration (peri-MAC) on the temporal summation (TS) of reflex activity in ponies. TS was evoked by repeated electrical stimulations applied at 5 Hz for 2 s on the digital nerve of the left forelimb of seven ponies. Surface electromyographic activity was recorded from the deltoid and common digital extensor muscles. TS thresholds and amplitude of response to stimulations of increasing intensities were assessed during anaesthesia at 0.85, 0.95 and 1.05 times the individual MAC, and after anaesthesia in standing animals. Under isoflurane anaesthesia, TS thresholds increased significantly in a concentration-dependent fashion and at each isoflurane MAC, the responses increased significantly for increasing stimulation intensities. A concentration-dependent depression of evoked reflexes with a reduction in the slopes of the stimulus-response function was observed for both muscles. The results demonstrated that with this model it is possible to describe and quantify the effects of anaesthetics on spinal sensory-motor processing in ponies.

Effects of local continuous release of brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) on peripheral nerve regeneration in a rat model

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of continuously released BDNF on peripheral nerve regeneration in a rat model. Initial in vitro evaluation of calcium alginate prolonged-release-capsules (PRC) proved a consistent release of BDNF for a minimum of 8 weeks. In vivo, a worst case scenario was created by surgical removal of a 20-mm section of the sciatic nerve of the rat. Twenty-four autologous fascia tubes were filled with calcium alginate spheres and sutured to the epineurium of both nerve ends. The animals were divided into 3 groups. In group 1, the fascial tube contained plain calcium alginate spheres. In groups 2 and 3, the fascial tube contained calcium alginate spheres with BDNF alone or BDNF stabilized with bovine serum albumin, respectively. The autocannibalization of the operated extremity was clinically assessed and documented in 12 additional rats. The regeneration was evaluated histologically at 4 weeks and 10 weeks in a blinded manner. The length of nerve fibers and the numbers of axons formed in the tube was measured. Over a 10-week period, axons have grown significantly faster in groups 2 and 3 with continuously released BDNF compared to the control. The rats treated with BDNF (groups 2 and 3) demonstrated significantly less autocannibalization than the control group (group 1). These results suggest that BDNF may not only stimulate faster peripheral nerve regeneration provided there is an ideal, biodegradable continuous delivery system but that it significantly reduces the neuropathic pain in the rat model.

A prediction model for personal radio frequency electromagnetic field exposure

Radio frequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) in our daily life are caused by numerous sources such as fixed site transmitters (e.g. mobile phone base stations) or indoor devices (e.g. cordless phones). The objective of this study was to develop a prediction model which can be used to predict mean RF-EMF exposure from different sources for a large study population in epidemiological research. We collected personal RF-EMF exposure measurements of 166 volunteers from Basel, Switzerland, by means of portable exposure meters, which were carried during one week. For a validation study we repeated exposure measurements of 31 study participants 21 weeks after the measurements of the first week on average. These second measurements were not used for the model development. We used two data sources as exposure predictors: 1) a questionnaire on potentially exposure relevant characteristics and behaviors and 2) modeled RF-EMF from fixed site transmitters (mobile phone base stations, broadcast transmitters) at the participants' place of residence using a geospatial propagation model. Relevant exposure predictors, which were identified by means of multiple regression analysis, were the modeled RF-EMF at the participants' home from the propagation model, housing characteristics, ownership of communication devices (wireless LAN, mobile and cordless phones) and behavioral aspects such as amount of time spent in public transports. The proportion of variance explained (R2) by the final model was 0.52. The analysis of the agreement between calculated and measured RF-EMF showed a sensitivity of 0.56 and a specificity of 0.95 (cut-off: 90th percentile). In the validation study, the sensitivity and specificity of the model were 0.67 and 0.96, respectively. We could demonstrate that it is feasible to model personal RF-EMF exposure. Most importantly, our validation study suggests that the model can be used to assess average exposure over several months.

Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum

The response of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics to volcanic eruptions and to a decrease in solar activity during the Dalton Minimum is investigated with the fully coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry general circulation model SOCOL-MPIOM (modeling tools for studies of SOlar Climate Ozone Links-Max Planck Institute Ocean Model) covering the time period 1780 to 1840 AD. We carried out several sensitivity ensemble experiments to separate the effects of (i) reduced solar ultra-violet (UV) irradiance, (ii) reduced solar visible and near infrared irradiance, (iii) enhanced galactic cosmic ray intensity as well as less intensive solar energetic proton events and auroral electron precipitation, and (iv) volcanic aerosols. The introduced changes of UV irradiance and volcanic aerosols significantly influence stratospheric dynamics in the early 19th century, whereas changes in the visible part of the spectrum and energetic particles have smaller effects. A reduction of UV irradiance by 15%, which represents the presently discussed highest estimate of UV irradiance change caused by solar activity changes, causes global ozone decrease below the stratopause reaching as much as 8% in the midlatitudes at 5 hPa and a significant stratospheric cooling of up to 2 °C in the mid-stratosphere and to 6 °C in the lower mesosphere. Changes in energetic particle precipitation lead only to minor changes in the yearly averaged temperature fields in the stratosphere. Volcanic aerosols heat the tropical lower stratosphere, allowing more water vapour to enter the tropical stratosphere, which, via HOx reactions, decreases upper stratospheric and mesospheric ozone by roughly 4%. Conversely, heterogeneous chemistry on aerosols reduces stratospheric NOx, leading to a 12% ozone increase in the tropics, whereas a decrease in ozone of up to 5% is found over Antarctica in boreal winter. The linear superposition of the different contributions is not equivalent to the response obtained in a simulation when all forcing factors are applied during the Dalton Minimum (DM) – this effect is especially well visible for NOx/NOy. Thus, this study also shows the non-linear behaviour of the coupled chemistry-climate system. Finally, we conclude that especially UV and volcanic eruptions dominate the changes in the ozone, temperature and dynamics while the NOx field is dominated by the energetic particle precipitation. Visible radiation changes have only very minor effects on both stratospheric dynamics and chemistry.

Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone

We investigate the effects of a recently proposed 21st century Dalton minimum like decline of solar activity on the evolution of Earth's climate and ozone layer. Three sets of two member ensemble simulations, radiatively forced by a midlevel emission scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP4.5), are performed with the atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model AOCCM SOCOL3-MPIOM, one with constant solar activity, the other two with reduced solar activity and different strength of the solar irradiance forcing. A future grand solar minimum will reduce the global mean surface warming of 2 K between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100 by 0.2 to 0.3 K. Furthermore, the decrease in solar UV radiation leads to a significant delay of stratospheric ozone recovery by 10 years and longer. Therefore, the effects of a solar activity minimum, should it occur, may interfere with international efforts for the protection of global climate and the ozone layer.

A comparative assessment of torque generated by lingual and conventional brackets

The aim of this study was to assess the effect of bracket type on the labiopalatal moments generated by lingual and conventional brackets. Incognito™ lingual brackets (3M Unitek), STb™ lingual brackets (Light Lingual System; ORMCO), In-Ovation L lingual brackets (DENTSPLY GAC), and conventional 0.018 inch slot brackets (Gemini; 3M Unitek) were bonded on identical maxillary acrylic resin models with levelled and aligned teeth. Each model was mounted on the orthodontic measurement and simulation system and 10 0.0175 × 0.0175 TMA wires were used for each bracket type. The wire was ligated with elastomerics into the Incognito, STb, and conventional brackets and each measurement was repeated once after religation. A 15 degrees buccal root torque (+15 degrees) and then a 15 degrees palatal root torque (-15 degrees) were gradually applied to the right central incisor bracket. After each activation, the bracket returned to its initial position and the moments in the sagittal plane were recorded during these rotations of the bracket. One-way analysis of variance with post hoc multiple comparisons (Tukey test at 0.05 error rate) was conducted to assess the effect on bracket type on the generated moments. The magnitude of maximum moment at +15 degrees ranged 8.8, 8.2, 7.1, and 5.8 Nmm for the Incognito, STb, conventional Gemini, and the In-Ovation L brackets, respectively; similar values were recorded at -15 degrees: 8.6, 8.1, 7.0, and 5.7 Nmm, respectively. The recorded differences of maximum moments were statistically significant, except between the Incognito and STb brackets. Additionally, the torque angles were evaluated at which the crown torque fell well below the minimum levels of 5.0 Nmm, as well as the moment/torque ratio at the last part of the activation/deactivation curve, between 10 and 15 degrees. The lowest torque expression was observed at the self-ligating lingual brackets, followed by the conventional brackets. The Incognito and STb lingual brackets generated the highest moments.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by process-based modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under http://www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws. We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10 m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25 m resolution.

How large are actor and partner effects of personality on relationship satisfaction? The importance of controlling for shared method variance

Previous research suggests that the personality of a relationship partner predicts not only the individual’s own satisfaction with the relationship but also the partner’s satisfaction. Based on the actor–partner interdependence model, the present research tested whether actor and partner effects of personality are biased when the same method (e.g., self-report) is used for the assessment of personality and relationship satisfaction and, consequently, shared method variance is not controlled for. Data came from 186 couples, of whom both partners provided self- and partner reports on the Big Five personality traits. Depending on the research design, actor effects were larger than partner effects (when using only self-reports), smaller than partner effects (when using only partner reports), or of about the same size as partner effects (when using self- and partner reports). The findings attest to the importance of controlling for shared method variance in dyadic data analysis.

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.

Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum

The aim of this work is to elucidate the impact of changes in solar irradiance and energetic particles versus volcanic eruptions on tropospheric global climate during the Dalton Minimum (DM, AD 1780–1840). Separate variations in the (i) solar irradiance in the UV-C with wavelengths λ < 250 nm, (ii) irradiance at wavelengths λ > 250 nm, (iii) in energetic particle spectrum, and (iv) volcanic aerosol forcing were analyzed separately, and (v) in combination, by means of small ensemble calculations using a coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry–climate model. Global and hemispheric mean surface temperatures show a significant dependence on solar irradiance at λ > 250 nm. Also, powerful volcanic eruptions in 1809, 1815, 1831 and 1835 significantly decreased global mean temperature by up to 0.5 K for 2–3 years after the eruption. However, while the volcanic effect is clearly discernible in the Southern Hemispheric mean temperature, it is less significant in the Northern Hemisphere, partly because the two largest volcanic eruptions occurred in the SH tropics and during seasons when the aerosols were mainly transported southward, partly because of the higher northern internal variability. In the simulation including all forcings, temperatures are in reasonable agreement with the tree ring-based temperature anomalies of the Northern Hemisphere. Interestingly, the model suggests that solar irradiance changes at λ < 250 nm and in energetic particle spectra have only an insignificant impact on the climate during the Dalton Minimum. This downscales the importance of top–down processes (stemming from changes at λ < 250 nm) relative to bottom–up processes (from λ > 250 nm). Reduction of irradiance at λ > 250 nm leads to a significant (up to 2%) decrease in the ocean heat content (OHC) between 0 and 300 m in depth, whereas the changes in irradiance at λ < 250 nm or in energetic particles have virtually no effect. Also, volcanic aerosol yields a very strong response, reducing the OHC of the upper ocean by up to 1.5%. In the simulation with all forcings, the OHC of the uppermost levels recovers after 8–15 years after volcanic eruption, while the solar signal and the different volcanic eruptions dominate the OHC changes in the deeper ocean and prevent its recovery during the DM. Finally, the simulations suggest that the volcanic eruptions during the DM had a significant impact on the precipitation patterns caused by a widening of the Hadley cell and a shift in the intertropical convergence zone.

Daily ozone cycle in the stratosphere: global, regional and seasonal behaviour modelled with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) is utilised to study the daily ozone cycle and underlying photochemical and dynamical processes. The analysis is focused on the daily ozone cycle in the middle stratosphere at 5 hPa where satellite-based trend estimates of stratospheric ozone are most biased by diurnal sampling effects and drifting satellite orbits. The simulated ozone cycle shows a minimum after sunrise and a maximum in the late afternoon. Further, a seasonal variation of the daily ozone cycle in the stratosphere was found. Depending on season and latitude, the peak-to-valley difference of the daily ozone cycle varies mostly between 3 and 5% (0.4 ppmv) with respect to the midnight ozone volume mixing ratio. The maximal variation of 15% (0.8 ppmv) is found at the polar circle in summer. The global pattern of the strength of the daily ozone cycle is mainly governed by the solar zenith angle and the sunshine duration. In addition, we find synoptic-scale variations in the strength of the daily ozone cycle. These variations are often anti-correlated to regional temperature anomalies and are due to the temperature dependence of the rate coefficients k2 and k3 of the Chapman cycle reactions. Further, the NOx catalytic cycle counteracts the accumulation of ozone during daytime and leads to an anti-correlation between anomalies in NOx and the strength of the daily ozone cycle. Similarly, ozone recombines with atomic oxygen which leads to an anti-correlation between anomalies in ozone abundance and the strength of the daily ozone cycle. At higher latitudes, an increase of the westerly (easterly) wind cause a decrease (increase) in the sunshine duration of an air parcel leading to a weaker (stronger) daily ozone cycle.

The coupled atmosphere–chemistry–ocean model SOCOL-MPIOM

The newly developed atmosphere–ocean-chemistry-climate model SOCOL-MPIOM is presented by demonstrating the influence of the interactive chemistry module on the climate state and the variability. Therefore, we compare pre-industrial control simulations with (CHEM) and without (NOCHEM) interactive chemistry. In general, the influence of the chemistry on the mean state and the variability is small and mainly restricted to the stratosphere and mesosphere. The largest differences are found for the atmospheric dynamics in the polar regions, with slightly stronger northern and southern winter polar vortices in CHEM. The strengthening of the vortex is related to larger stratospheric temperature gradients, which are attributed to a parametrization of the absorption of ozone and oxygen in the Lyman-alpha, Schumann–Runge, Hartley, and Higgins bands. This effect is parametrized in the version with interactive chemistry only. A second reason for the temperature differences between CHEM and NOCHEM is related to diurnal variations in the ozone concentrations in the higher atmosphere, which are missing in NOCHEM. Furthermore, stratospheric water vapour concentrations differ substantially between the two experiments, but their effect on the temperatures is small. In both setups, the simulated intensity and variability of the northern polar vortex is inside the range of present day observations. Sudden stratospheric warming events are well reproduced in terms of their frequency, but the distribution amongst the winter months is too uniform. Additionally, the performance of SOCOL-MPIOM under changing external forcings is assessed for the period 1600–2000 using an ensemble of simulations driven by a spectral solar forcing reconstruction. The amplitude of the reconstruction is large in comparison to other state-of-the-art reconstructions, providing an upper limit for the importance of the solar signal. In the pre-industrial period (1600–1850) the simulated surface temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with temperature reconstructions, although the multi-decadal variability is more pronounced. This enhanced variability can be attributed to the variability in the solar forcing. The simulated temperature reductions during the Maunder Minimum are in the lowest probability range of the proxy records. During the Dalton Minimum, when also volcanic forcing is an important driver of temperature variations, the agreement is better. In the industrial period from 1850 onward SOCOL-MPIOM overestimates the temperature increase in comparison to observational data sets. Sensitivity simulations show that this overestimation can be attributed to the increasing trend in the solar forcing reconstruction that is used in this study and an additional warming induced by the simulated ozone changes.