Impact of weather and climate on the incidence of acute coronary syndromes

BACKGROUND: First investigations of the interactions between weather and the incidence of acute myocardial infarctions date back to 1938. The early observation of a higher incidence of myocardial infarctions in the cold season could be confirmed in very different geographical regions and cohorts. While the influence of seasonal variations on the incidence of myocardial infarctions has been extensively documented, the impact of individual meteorological parameters on the disease has so far not been investigated systematically. Hence the present study intended to assess the impact of the essential variables of weather and climate on the incidence of myocardial infarctions. METHODS: The daily incidence of myocardial infarctions was calculated from a national hospitalization survey. The hourly weather and climate data were provided by the database of the national weather forecast. The epidemiological and meteorological data were correlated by multivariate analysis based on a generalized linear model assuming a log-link-function and a Poisson distribution. RESULTS: High ambient pressure, high pressure gradients, and heavy wind activity were associated with an increase in the incidence of the totally 6560 hospitalizations for myocardial infarction irrespective of the geographical region. Snow- and rainfall had inconsistent effects. Temperature, Foehn, and lightning showed no statistically significant impact. CONCLUSIONS: Ambient pressure, pressure gradient, and wind activity had a statistical impact on the incidence of myocardial infarctions in Switzerland from 1990 to 1994. To establish a cause-and-effect relationship more data are needed on the interaction between the pathophysiological mechanisms of the acute coronary syndrome and weather and climate variables.

Mineralogy-based quantitative precipitation and temperature reconstructions from annually laminated lake sediments (Swiss Alps) since AD 1580

[1] We present quantitative autumn, summer and annual precipitation and summer temperature reconstructions from proglacial annually laminated Lake Silvaplana, eastern Swiss Alps back to AD 1580. We used X-ray diffraction peak intensity ratios of minerals in the sediment layers (quartz qz, plagioclase pl, amphibole am, mica mi) that are diagnostic for different source areas and hydro-meteorological transport processes in the catchment. XRD data were calibrated with meteorological data (AD 1800/1864–1950) and revealed significant correlations: mi/pl with SON precipitation (r = 0.56, p < 0.05) and MJJAS precipitation (r = 0.66, p < 0.01); qz/mi with MJJAS temperature (r = −0.72, p < 0.01)and qz/am with annual precipitation (r = −0.54, p < 0.05). Geological catchment settings and hydro-meteorological processes provide deterministic explanations for the correlations. Our summer temperature reconstruction reproduces the typical features of past climate variability known from independent data sets. The precipitation reconstructions show a LIA climate moister than today. Exceptionally wet periods in our reconstruction coincide with regional glacier advances.

High-resolution summer temperature reconstruction from Lake Silvaplana based on in-situ reflectance spectroscopy

Annually laminated (varved) sediments of proglacial Lake Silvaplana (46 ̊27’N, 9 ̊48’E, 1791 m a.s.l., Engadine, eastern Swiss Alps) provide an excellent archive for quantitative high-resolution (seasonal – annual) reconstruction of high- and lowfrequency climate signals back to AD 1580. The chronology of the core is based on varve counting, Cs-137, Pb-210 and event stratigraphy. In this study we present a reconstruction based on in-situ reflectance spectroscopy. In situ reflectance spectroscopy is known as a cost- and time-effective non destructtive method for semi-quantitative analysis of pigments (e.g., chlorines and carotenoids) and of lithoclastic sediment fractions. Reflectance-dependent absorption (RDA) was measured with a Gretac Macbeth spectrolino at 2 mm resolution. The spectral coverage ranges from 380 nm to 730 nm at 10 nm band resolution. In proglacial Lake Silvaplana, 99% of the sediment is lithoclastic prior to AD 1950. Therefore, we concentrate on absorption features that are characteristic for lithoclastic sediment fractions. In Lake Silvaplana, two significant correlations that are stable in time were found between RDA typical for lithoclastics and meteorological data: (1) the time series R 570 /R 630 (ratio between RDA at 570 nm and 630 nm) of varves in Lake Silvaplana and May to October temperatures at nearby station of Sils correlate highly significantly (calibration period AD 1864 – 1951, r = 0.74, p < 0.01 for 5ptsmoothed series; RMSE is 0.28 ̊C, RE = 0.41 and CE = 0.38), and (2) the minimum reflectance within the 690nm band (min690) data correlate with May to October (calibration period AD 1864 – 1951, r = 0.68, p < 0.01 for 5pt-smoothed series; RMSE = 0.22 ̊C, RE = 0.5, CE = 0.31). Both proxy series (min690nm and R 570 /R 630 values) are internally highly consistent (r = 0.8, p < 0.001). In proglacial Lake Silvaplana the largest amount of sediment is transported by glacial meltwater. The melting season spans approximately from May to October, which gives us a good understanding of the geophysical processes explaining the correlations between lithoclastic proxies and the meteorological data. The reconstructions were extended back to AD 1580 and show a broad corresponddence with fully independent reconstructions from tree rings and documentary data.

Simulating the temperature and precipitation signal in an Alpine ice core

Accumulation and delta O-18 data from Alpine ice cores provide information on past temperature and precipitation. However, their correlation with seasonal or annual mean temperature and precipitation at nearby sites is often low. This is partly due to the irregular sampling of the atmosphere by the ice core (i.e. ice cores almost only record precipitation events and not dry periods) and the possible incongruity between annual layers and calendar years. Using daily meteorological data from a nearby station and reanalyses, we replicate the ice core from the Grenzgletscher (Switzerland, 4200m a.s.l.) on a sample-by-sample basis by calculating precipitation-weighted temperature (PWT) over short intervals. Over the last 15 yr of the ice core record, accumulation and delta O-18 variations can be well reproduced on a sub-seasonal scale. This allows a wiggle-matching approach for defining quasi-annual layers, resulting in high correlations between measured quasi-annual delta O-18 and PWT. Further back in time, the agreement deteriorates. Nevertheless, we find significant correlations over the entire length of the record (1938-1993) of ice core delta O-18 with PWT, but not with annual mean temperature. This is due to the low correlations between PWT and annual mean temperature, a characteristic which in ERA-Interim reanalysis is also found for many other continental mid-to-high-latitude regions. The fact that meteorologically very different years can lead to similar combinations of PWT and accumulation poses limitations to the use of delta O-18 from Alpine ice cores for temperature reconstructions. Rather than for reconstructing annual mean temperature, delta O-18 from Alpine ice cores should be used to reconstruct PWT over quasi-annual periods. This variable is reproducible in reanalysis or climate model data and could thus be assimilated into conventional climate models.

Historical weather extremes in the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis”

Meteorological or climatological extremes are rare and hence studying them requires long meteorological data sets. Moreover, for addressing the underlying atmospheric processes, detailed three-dimensional data are desired. Until recently the two requirements were incompatible as long meteorological series were only available for a few locations, whereas detailed 3-dimensional data sets such as reanalyses were limited to the past few decades. In 2011, the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis” (20CR) was released, a 6-hourly global atmospheric data set covering the past 140 years, thus combining the two properties. The collection of short papers in this volume contains case studies of individual extreme events in the 20CR data set. In this overview paper we introduce the first six cases and summarise some common findings. All of the events are represented in 20CR in a physically consistent way, allowing further meteorological interpretations and process studies. Also, for most of the events, the magnitudes are underestimated in the ensemble mean. Possible causes are addressed. For interpreting extrema it may be necessary to address individual ensemble members. Also, the density of observations underlying 20CR should be considered. Finally, we point to problems in wind speeds over the Arctic and the northern North Pacific in 20CR prior to the 1950s.

Cold-season temperatures in the European Alps during the past millennium: variability, seasonality and recent trends

This study presents a proxy-based, quantitative reconstruction of cold-season (mean October to May, TOct–May) air temperatures covering nearly the entire last millennium (AD 1060–2003, some hiatuses). The reconstruction was based on subfossil chrysophyte stomatocyst remains in the varved sediments of high-Alpine Lake Silvaplana, eastern Swiss Alps (46°27’N, 9°48′W, 1791 m a.s.l.). Previous studies have demonstrated the reliability of this proxy by comparison to meteorological data. Cold-season air temperatures could therefore be reconstructed quantitatively, at a high resolution (5-yr) and with high chronological accuracy. Spatial correlation analysis suggests that the reconstruction reflects cold season climate variability over the high- Alpine region and substantial parts of central and western Europe. Cold-season temperatures were characterized by a relatively stable first part of the millennium until AD 1440 (2σ of 5-yr mean values = 0.7 °C) and highly variable TOct–May after that (AD 1440–1900, 2σ of 5-yr mean values = 1.3 °C). Recent decades (AD, 1991-present) were unusually warm in the context of the last millennium (exceeding the 2σ-range of the mean decadal TOct–May) but this warmth was not unprecedented. The coolest decades occurred from AD 1510–1520 and AD 1880–1890. The timing of extremely warm and cold decades is generally in good agreement with documentary data representing Switzerland and central European lowlands. The transition from relatively stable to highly variable TOct–May coincided with large changes in atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic region. Comparison of reconstructed cold season temperatures to the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) during the past 1000 years showed that the relatively stable and warm conditions at the study site until AD 1440 coincided with a persistent positive mode of the NAO. We propose that the transition to large TOct–May variability around AD 1440 was linked to the subsequent absence of this persistent zonal flow pattern, which would allow other climatic drivers to gain importance in the study area. From AD 1440–1900, the similarity of reconstructed TOct–May to reconstructed air pressure in the Siberian High suggests a relatively strong influence of continental anticyclonic systems on Alpine cold season climate parameters during periods when westerly airflow was subdued. A more continental type of atmospheric circulation thus seems to be characteristic for the Little Ice Age in Europe. Comparison of Toct–May to summer temperature reconstructions from the same study site shows that, as expected, summer and cold season temperature trends and variability differed completely throughout nearly the entire last 1000 years. Since AD 1980, however, summer and cold season temperatures show a simultaneous, strong increase, which is unprecedented in the context of the last millennium. We suggest that the most likely explanation for this recent trend is anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing.

Temperature and precipitation signal in two Alpine ice cores over the period 1961-2001

Water stable isotope ratios and net snow accumulation in ice cores are commonly interpreted as temperature or precipitation proxies. However, only in a few cases has a direct calibration with instrumental data been attempted. In this study we took advantage of the dense network of observations in the European Alpine region to rigorously test the relationship of the annual and seasonal resolved proxy data from two highly resolved ice cores with local temperature and precipitation. We focused on the time period 1961–2001 with the highest amount and quality of meteorological data and the minimal uncertainty in ice core dating (±1 year). The two ice cores were retrieved from the Fiescherhorn glacier (northern Alps, 3900 m a.s.l.), and Grenzgletscher (southern Alps, 4200 m a.s.l.). A parallel core from the Fiescherhorn glacier allowed assessing the reproducibility of the ice core proxy data. Due to the orographic barrier, the two flanks of the Alpine chain are affected by distinct patterns of precipitation. The different location of the two glaciers therefore offers a unique opportunity to test whether such a specific setting is reflected in the proxy data. On a seasonal scale a high fraction of δ18O variability was explained by the seasonal cycle of temperature (~60% for the ice cores, ~70% for the nearby stations of the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation – GNIP). When the seasonality is removed, the correlations decrease for all sites, indicating that factors other than temperature such as changing moisture sources and/or precipitation regimes affect the isotopic signal on this timescale. Post-depositional phenomena may additionally modify the ice core data. On an annual scale, the δ18O/temperature relationship was significant at the Fiescherhorn, whereas for Grenzgletscher this was the case only when weighting the temperature with precipitation. In both cases the fraction of interannual temperature variability explained was ~20%, comparable to the values obtained from the GNIP stations data. Consistently with previous studies, we found an altitude effect for the δ18O of −0.17‰/100 m for an extended elevation range combining data of the two ice core sites and four GNIP stations. Significant correlations between net accumulation and precipitation were observed for Grenzgletscher during the entire period of investigation, whereas for Fiescherhorn this was the case only for the less recent period (1961–1977). Local phenomena, probably related to wind, seem to partly disturb the Fiescherhorn accumulation record. Spatial correlation analysis shows the two glaciers to be influenced by different precipitation regimes, with the Grenzgletscher reflecting the characteristic precipitation regime south of the Alps and the Fiescherhorn accumulation showing a pattern more closely linked to northern Alpine stations.

Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

Plant diversity effects on the water balance of an experimental grassland

In the literature, contrasting effects of plant species richness on the soil water balance are reported. Our objective was to assess the effects of plant species and functional richness and functional identity on soil water contents and water fluxes in the experimental grassland of the Jena Experiment. The Jena Experiment comprises 86 plots on which plant species richness (0, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, and 60) and functional group composition (zero to four functional groups: legumes, grasses, tall herbs, and small herbs) were manipulated in a factorial design. We recorded meteorological data and soil water contents of the 0·0–0·3 and 0·3–0·7 m soil layers and calculated actual evapotranspiration (ETa), downward flux (DF), and capillary rise with a soil water balance model for the period 2003–2007. Missing water contents were estimated with a Bayesian hierarchical model. Species richness decreased water contents in subsoil during wet soil conditions. Presence of tall herbs increased soil water contents in topsoil during dry conditions and decreased soil water contents in subsoil during wet conditions. Presence of grasses generally decreased water contents in topsoil, particularly during dry phases; increased ETa and decreased DF from topsoil; and decreased ETa from subsoil. Presence of legumes, in contrast, decreased ETa and increased DF from topsoil and increased ETa from subsoil. Species richness probably resulted in complementary water use. Specific functional groups likely affected the water balance via specific root traits (e.g. shallow dense roots of grasses and deep taproots of tall herbs) or specific shading intensity caused by functional group effects on vegetation cover. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Eine tragfähige Datenbrücke – Phänologische Beobachtungen im Amtsblatt des Kantons Schaffhausen 1876–1950

The international standardisation of national meteorological networks in the late nineteenth century excluded biotic and abiotic observations from the objects to be henceforth published in the yearbooks. Skilled amateurs being in charge of three meteorological stations in Canton Schaffhausen (Switzerland) and their successors managed to continuously publish phenological observations gathered in the station environment alongside with meteorological data in the official gazette of this Canton from 1876 to 1950, i.e. up to the onset of phenological network observations in Switzerland. At least ten observations are available for 51 plant and animal phenological phases. Long series were assembled (N → = 30) for 14 plant phenological observations, among them for the first flowering of snowdrop (Galanthus nivalis), of hazel (Corylus avellana), of horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum), of winter rye (Secale cereale) and of grape vine (Vitis vinifera) as well as the beginning of hay, winter rye and grape harvesting. Only the bare data were published without any metadata. The quality of 10 long series (N →=60) was checked by investigating the biographical and biological background of key observers and submitting their evidence to graphical (meteorological plausibility check of outliers) and statistical verification. The long term observers, mostly schoolteachers and high school professors, had a good knowledge of botany and the quality of their observations – disregarding obvious printing errors – is surprisingly good. A number of long series (seven) was completed with applicable data from the Swiss Phenological Network up to 2011. Besides anthropogenic shifts (beginning of hay and grape harvest) there is a contrast between a global warming-related earlier flowering of snowdrop and hazel and a later occurrence of grape vine flowering.

Meteorological and Hydrological Data collected at Gununo SCRP Research Station from 1996 to 2004

Nine years of meteorological and hydrological data collected at Gununo SCRP Research Station are ecoded and available