Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors in clinical trials with historical control information.

Historical information is always relevant for clinical trial design. Additionally, if incorporated in the analysis of a new trial, historical data allow to reduce the number of subjects. This decreases costs and trial duration, facilitates recruitment, and may be more ethical. Yet, under prior-data conflict, a too optimistic use of historical data may be inappropriate. We address this challenge by deriving a Bayesian meta-analytic-predictive prior from historical data, which is then combined with the new data. This prospective approach is equivalent to a meta-analytic-combined analysis of historical and new data if parameters are exchangeable across trials. The prospective Bayesian version requires a good approximation of the meta-analytic-predictive prior, which is not available analytically. We propose two- or three-component mixtures of standard priors, which allow for good approximations and, for the one-parameter exponential family, straightforward posterior calculations. Moreover, since one of the mixture components is usually vague, mixture priors will often be heavy-tailed and therefore robust. Further robustness and a more rapid reaction to prior-data conflicts can be achieved by adding an extra weakly-informative mixture component. Use of historical prior information is particularly attractive for adaptive trials, as the randomization ratio can then be changed in case of prior-data conflict. Both frequentist operating characteristics and posterior summaries for various data scenarios show that these designs have desirable properties. We illustrate the methodology for a phase II proof-of-concept trial with historical controls from four studies. Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors alleviate prior-data conflicts ' they should encourage better and more frequent use of historical data in clinical trials.

Effect of psychological interventions on depressive symptoms in long-term rehabilitation after an acquired brain injury: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE To summarize empirical studies on the effectiveness of psychological interventions in long-term rehabilitation after an acquired brain injury (ABI) in reducing depressive symptoms. DATA SOURCES A systematic literature search was conducted on MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Embase, and CINAHL to identify articles published between January 1990 and October 2011. Search terms included the 3 concepts (1) "brain injur*" or "stroke," (2) "psychotherap*" or "therapy" or "intervention" or "rehabilitation," and (3) "depress*." STUDY SELECTION Studies evaluating psychological interventions in patients after ABI were included. Time since injury was on average more than 1 year. Trials reported data on validated depression questionnaires before and after the psychological intervention. DATA EXTRACTION Two independent reviewers extracted information from the sample, the intervention, and the outcome of the included studies and calculated effect sizes (ESs) from depression questionnaires. Thirteen studies were included in a pre-post analysis. Seven studies were eligible for a meta-analysis of ESs in active interventions and control conditions. DATA SYNTHESIS Pre-post ESs were significant in 4 of 13 studies. The overall ES of .69 (95% confidence interval [CI], .29-1.09) suggests a medium effectiveness of psychological interventions on depressive symptoms compared with control conditions. Moderator analysis of the number of sessions and adequate randomization procedure did not show significant ES differences between strata. Studies with adequate randomization did not, however, suggest the effectiveness of psychological interventions on depressive symptoms after ABI. CONCLUSIONS Psychological interventions are a promising treatment option for depressive symptoms in long-term rehabilitation after ABI. Since only a few adequately randomized controlled trials (RCTs) exist, more RCTs are required to confirm this initial finding.

Biomarker-guided personalised emergency medicine for all - hope for another hype?

Polymorbid patients, diverse diagnostic and therapeutic options, more complex hospital structures, financial incentives, benchmarking, as well as perceptional and societal changes put pressure on medical doctors, specifically if medical errors surface. This is particularly true for the emergency department setting, where patients face delayed or erroneous initial diagnostic or therapeutic measures and costly hospital stays due to sub-optimal triage. A "biomarker" is any laboratory tool with the potential better to detect and characterise diseases, to simplify complex clinical algorithms and to improve clinical problem solving in routine care. They must be embedded in clinical algorithms to complement and not replace basic medical skills. Unselected ordering of laboratory tests and shortcomings in test performance and interpretation contribute to diagnostic errors. Test results may be ambiguous with false positive or false negative results and generate unnecessary harm and costs. Laboratory tests should only be ordered, if results have clinical consequences. In studies, we must move beyond the observational reporting and meta-analysing of diagnostic accuracies for biomarkers. Instead, specific cut-off ranges should be proposed and intervention studies conducted to prove outcome relevant impacts on patient care. The focus of this review is to exemplify the appropriate use of selected laboratory tests in the emergency setting for which randomised-controlled intervention studies have proven clinical benefit. Herein, we focus on initial patient triage and allocation of treatment opportunities in patients with cardiorespiratory diseases in the emergency department. The following five biomarkers will be discussed: proadrenomedullin for prognostic triage assessment and site-of-care decisions, cardiac troponin for acute myocardial infarction, natriuretic peptides for acute heart failure, D-dimers for venous thromboembolism, C-reactive protein as a marker of inflammation, and procalcitonin for antibiotic stewardship in infections of the respiratory tract and sepsis. For these markers we provide an overview on physiopathology, historical evolution of evidence, strengths and limitations for a rational implementation into clinical algorithms. We critically discuss results from key intervention trials that led to their use in clinical routine and potential future indications. The rational for the use of all these biomarkers, first, tackle diagnostic ambiguity and consecutive defensive medicine, second, delayed and sub-optimal therapeutic decisions, and third, prognostic uncertainty with misguided triage and site-of-care decisions all contributing to the waste of our limited health care resources. A multifaceted approach for a more targeted management of medical patients from emergency admission to discharge including biomarkers, will translate into better resource use, shorter length of hospital stay, reduced overall costs, improved patients satisfaction and outcomes in terms of mortality and re-hospitalisation. Hopefully, the concepts outlined in this review will help the reader to improve their diagnostic skills and become more parsimonious laboratory test requesters.

Concepts of Bitemporal Database Theory and the Evolution of Web-Documents

A vast amount of temporal information is provided on the Web. Even though many facts expressed in documents are time-related, the temporal properties of Web presentations have not received much attention. In database research, temporal databases have become a mainstream topic in recent years. In Web documents, temporal data may exist as meta data in the header and as user-directed data in the body of a document. Whereas temporal data can easily be identified in the semi-structured meta data, it is more difficult to determine temporal data and its role in the body. We propose procedures for maintaining temporal integrity of Web pages and outline different approaches of applying bitemporal data concepts for Web documents. In particular, we regard desirable functionalities of Web repositories and other Web-related tools that may support the Webmasters in managing the temporal data of their Web documents. Some properties of a prototype environment are described.