Associating optical measurements and estimating orbits of geocentric objects through population-based meta-heuristic methods

Currently several thousands of objects are being tracked in the MEO and GEO regions through optical means. The problem faced in this framework is that of Multiple Target Tracking (MTT). In this context both, the correct associations among the observations and the orbits of the objects have to be determined. The complexity of the MTT problem is defined by its dimension S. The number S corresponds to the number of fences involved in the problem. Each fence consists of a set of observations where each observation belongs to a different object. The S ≥ 3 MTT problem is an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem. There are two general ways to solve this. One way is to seek the optimum solution, this can be achieved by applying a branch-and- bound algorithm. When using these algorithms the problem has to be greatly simplified to keep the computational cost at a reasonable level. Another option is to approximate the solution by using meta-heuristic methods. These methods aim to efficiently explore the different possible combinations so that a reasonable result can be obtained with a reasonable computational effort. To this end several population-based meta-heuristic methods are implemented and tested on simulated optical measurements. With the advent of improved sensors and a heightened interest in the problem of space debris, it is expected that the number of tracked objects will grow by an order of magnitude in the near future. This research aims to provide a method that can treat the correlation and orbit determination problems simultaneously, and is able to efficiently process large data sets with minimal manual intervention.

Detecting outlying studies in meta-regression models using a forward search algorithm.

When considering data from many trials, it is likely that some of them present a markedly different intervention effect or exert an undue influence on the summary results. We develop a forward search algorithm for identifying outlying and influential studies in meta-analysis models. The forward search algorithm starts by fitting the hypothesized model to a small subset of likely outlier-free studies and proceeds by adding studies into the set one-by-one that are determined to be closest to the fitted model of the existing set. As each study is added to the set, plots of estimated parameters and measures of fit are monitored to identify outliers by sharp changes in the forward plots. We apply the proposed outlier detection method to two real data sets; a meta-analysis of 26 studies that examines the effect of writing-to-learn interventions on academic achievement adjusting for three possible effect modifiers, and a meta-analysis of 70 studies that compares a fluoride toothpaste treatment to placebo for preventing dental caries in children. A simple simulated example is used to illustrate the steps of the proposed methodology, and a small-scale simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.