Statistical Methods and the Meaning of Probabilities. A Philosopher Looks at Statistics

The talk starts out with a short introduction to the philosophy of probability. I highlight the need to interpret probabilities in the sciences and motivate objectivist accounts of probabilities. Very roughly, according to such accounts, ascriptions of probabilities have truth-conditions that are independent of personal interests and needs. But objectivist accounts are pointless if they do not provide an objectivist epistemology, i.e., if they do not determine well-defined methods to support or falsify claims about probabilities. In the rest of the talk I examine recent philosophical proposals for an objectivist methodology. Most of them take up ideas well-known from statistics. I nevertheless find some proposals incompatible with objectivist aspirations.

How Comprehensible, Interesting and Relevant is Current Research in Traditional Chinese Medicine for Practitioners?

Purpose: In traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) as in other fields of complementary medicine, research does not necessarily follow the sequence from in vitro studies via phase I to phase IV clinical trials, but all steps are being investigated simultaneously. Here, we aimed to investigate which kinds of studies were interesting and relevant for practitioners. Methods: Thirty abstracts from articles on TCM published between April and June 2012 were randomly chosen, including 5 abstracts each of in vitro studies, animal studies, case reports or series, studies with healthy volunteers, trials with patients, or reviews and meta-analyses. Six TCM practitioners (2 female, 5 non-medical, average age 46 years, average practical TCM experience 9 years) rated 10 abstracts each on a 5 point Likert scale (1=very poor to 5=very good) regarding comprehensibility, interest, relevance to practice, information for patients, and promoting reputation of TCM. Average ratings for each group of abstracts were calculated. Results: Comprehensibility of the abstracts was generally rated as good. Case reports/series, studies in healthy volunteers and trials with patients were rated interesting by the practitioners (average rating = 3.7, 3.8 and 3.7, respectively). Relevance to practice was mediocre for all types (2.5 to 3.5). In vitro studies and reviews/meta-analyses were not rated useful as information for patients (2.0). Reviews/Meta-analyses were considered negative for the reputation of TCM (2.2). Conclusions: Practitioners of TCM find abstracts of study results generally comprehensible and interesting. Case reports/series were rated in a similar way as trials with patients. Although TCM is commonly taught by means of case reports, practitioners seemed to value clinical trials. Abstracts of reviews/meta-analyses were rated rather uninformative, which was possibly due to several inconclusive results and the lack of detailed information in these abstracts.

Statistical testing against baseline was common in dental research

OBJECTIVES To assess the presence of within-group comparisons with baseline in a subset of leading dental journals and to explore possible associations with a range of study characteristics including journal and study design. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING Thirty consecutive issues of five leading dental journals were electronically searched. The conduct and reporting of statistical analysis in respect of comparisons against baseline or otherwise along with the manner of interpretation of the results were assessed. Descriptive statistics were obtained, and chi-square test and Fisher's exact were undertaken to test the association between trial characteristics and overall study interpretation. RESULTS A total of 184 studies were included with the highest proportion published in Journal of Endodontics (n = 84, 46%) and most involving a single center (n = 157, 85%). Overall, 43 studies (23%) presented interpretation of their outcomes based solely on comparisons against baseline. Inappropriate use of baseline testing was found to be less likely in interventional studies (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION Use of comparisons with baseline appears to be common among both observational and interventional research studies in dentistry. Enhanced conduct and reporting of statistical tests are required to ensure that inferences from research studies are appropriate and informative.

Reporting Experiments in Homeopathic Basic Research—Description of the Checklist Development

The objective of this study was to develop a criteria catalogue serving as a guideline for authors to improve quality of reporting experiments in basic research in homeopathy. A Delphi Process was initiated including three rounds of adjusting and phrasing plus two consensus conferences. European researchers who published experimental work within the last 5 years were involved. A checklist for authors provide a catalogue with 23 criteria. The “Introduction” should focus on underlying hypotheses, the homeopathic principle investigated and state if experiments are exploratory or confirmatory. “Materials and methods” should comprise information on object of investigation, experimental setup, parameters, intervention and statistical methods. A more detailed description on the homeopathic substances, for example, manufacture, dilution method, starting point of dilution is required. A further result of the Delphi process is to raise scientists' awareness of reporting blinding, allocation, replication, quality control and system performance controls. The part “Results” should provide the exact number of treated units per setting which were included in each analysis and state missing samples and drop outs. Results presented in tables and figures are as important as appropriate measures of effect size, uncertainty and probability. “Discussion” in a report should depict more than a general interpretation of results in the context of current evidence but also limitations and an appraisal of aptitude for the chosen experimental model. Authors of homeopathic basic research publications are encouraged to apply our checklist when preparing their manuscripts. Feedback is encouraged on applicability, strength and limitations of the list to enable future revisions.

Statistical model-based segmentation of the proximal femur in digital antero-posterior (AP) pelvic radiographs.

PURPOSE    Segmentation of the proximal femur in digital antero-posterior (AP) pelvic radiographs is required to create a three-dimensional model of the hip joint for use in planning and treatment. However, manually extracting the femoral contour is tedious and prone to subjective bias, while automatic segmentation must accommodate poor image quality, anatomical structure overlap, and femur deformity. A new method was developed for femur segmentation in AP pelvic radiographs. METHODS    Using manual annotations on 100 AP pelvic radiographs, a statistical shape model (SSM) and a statistical appearance model (SAM) of the femur contour were constructed. The SSM and SAM were used to segment new AP pelvic radiographs with a three-stage approach. At initialization, the mean SSM model is coarsely registered to the femur in the AP radiograph through a scaled rigid registration. Mahalanobis distance defined on the SAM is employed as the search criteria for each annotated suggested landmark location. Dynamic programming was used to eliminate ambiguities. After all landmarks are assigned, a regularized non-rigid registration method deforms the current mean shape of SSM to produce a new segmentation of proximal femur. The second and third stages are iteratively executed to convergence. RESULTS    A set of 100 clinical AP pelvic radiographs (not used for training) were evaluated. The mean segmentation error was [Formula: see text], requiring [Formula: see text] s per case when implemented with Matlab. The influence of the initialization on segmentation results was tested by six clinicians, demonstrating no significance difference. CONCLUSIONS    A fast, robust and accurate method for femur segmentation in digital AP pelvic radiographs was developed by combining SSM and SAM with dynamic programming. This method can be extended to segmentation of other bony structures such as the pelvis.

Head movement synchrony in social interactions of patients with schizophrenia indicates symptoms, cognition and social functioning

Background: Disturbed interpersonal communication is a core problem in schizophrenia. Patients with schizophrenia often appear disconnected and "out of sync" when interacting with others. This may involve perception, cognition, motor behavior, and nonverbal expressiveness. Although well-known from clinical observation, mainstream research has neglected this area. Corresponding theoretical concepts, statistical methods, and assessment were missing. In recent research, however, it has been shown that objective, video-based measures of nonverbal behavior can be used to reliably quantify nonverbal behavior in schizophrenia. Newly developed algorithms allow for a calculation of movement synchrony. We found that the objective amount of movement of patients with schizophrenia during social interactions was closely related to the symptom profiles of these patients (Kupper et al., 2010). In addition and above the mere amount of movement, the degree of synchrony between patients and healthy interactants may be indicative of various problems in the domain of interpersonal communication and social cognition. Methods: Based on our earlier study, head movement synchrony was assessed objectively (using Motion Energy Analysis, MEA) in 378 brief, videotaped role-play scenes involving 27 stabilized outpatients diagnosed with paranoid-type schizophrenia. Results: Lower head movement synchrony was indicative of symptoms (negative symptoms, but also of conceptual disorganization and lack of insight), verbal memory, patients’ self-evaluation of competence, and social functioning. Many of these relationships remained significant even when corrected for the amount of movement of the patients. Conclusion: The results suggest that nonverbal synchrony may be an objective and sensitive indicator of the severity of symptoms, cognition and social functioning.

GetReal in network meta-analysis: a review of the methodology.

Pairwise meta-analysis is an established statistical tool for synthesizing evidence from multiple trials, but it is informative only about the relative efficacy of two specific interventions. The usefulness of pairwise meta-analysis is thus limited in real-life medical practice, where many competing interventions may be available for a certain condition and studies informing some of the pairwise comparisons may be lacking. This commonly encountered scenario has led to the development of network meta-analysis (NMA). In the last decade, several applications, methodological developments, and empirical studies in NMA have been published, and the area is thriving as its relevance to public health is increasingly recognized. This article presents a review of the relevant literature on NMA methodology aiming to pinpoint the developments that have appeared in the field. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quantitative assessment of urea generation and elimination in healthy dogs and in dogs with chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND: Kinetic assessment of urea, the main end product of protein metabolism, could serve to assess protein catabolism in dogs with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Protein malnutrition and catabolism are poorly documented in CKD and they often are neglected clinically because of a lack of appropriate evaluation tools. HYPOTHESIS: Generation and excretion of urea are altered in dogs with CKD. ANIMALS: Nine dogs with spontaneous CKD (IRIS stages 2-4) and 5 healthy research dogs. METHODS: Endogenous renal clearance (Clrenal) of urea and creatinine was measured first. Exogenous plasma clearance (Clplasma, total body clearance) of the 2 markers then was determined by an IV infusion of urea (250-1,000 mg/kg over 20 minutes) and an IV bolus of creatinine (40 mg/kg). Extrarenal clearance (Clextra) was defined as the difference between Clplasma)and Clrenal. Endogenous urea generation was computed assuming steady-state conditions. RESULTS: Median Clrenal and Clextra of urea were 2.17 and 0.21 mL/min/kg in healthy dogs and 0.37 and 0.28 mL/min/kg in CKD dogs. The proportion of urea cleared by extrarenal route was markedly higher in dogs with glomerular filtration rate<1 mL/kg/min than in normal dogs, reaching up to 85% of the total clearance. A comparable pattern was observed for creatinine excretion, except in 1 dog, Clextra remained<20% of Clplasma. CONCLUSION: Extrarenal pathways of urea excretion are predominant in dogs with advanced CKD and justify exploring adjunctive therapies based on enteric nitrogen excretion in dogs. A trend toward increased urea generation may indicate increased catabolism in advanced CKD.

New methods can extend the use of minimal important difference units in meta-analyses of continuous outcome measures

For continuous outcomes measured using instruments with an established minimally important difference (MID), pooled estimates can be usefully reported in MID units. Approaches suggested thus far omit studies that used instruments without an established MID. We describe an approach that addresses this limitation.

Music, perceived arousal, and intensity: psychophysiological reactions to Chopin's "Tristesse"

The present study investigates the relation of perceived arousal (continuous self-rating), autonomic nervous system activity (heart rate, heart rate variability) and musical characteristics (sound intensity, musical rhythm) upon listening to a complex musical piece. Twenty amateur musicians listened to two performances of Chopin's "Tristesse" with different rhythmic shapes. Besides conventional statistical methods for analyzing psychophysiological reactions (heart rate, respiration rate) and musical variables, semblance analysis was used. Perceived arousal correlated strongly with sound intensity; heart rate showed only a partial response to changes in sound intensity. Larger changes in heart rate were caused by the version with more rhythmic tension. The low-/high-frequency ratio of heart rate variability increased-whereas the high frequency component decreased-during music listening. We conclude that autonomic nervous system activity can be modulated not only by sound intensity but also by the interpreter's use of rhythmic tension. Semblance analysis enables us to track the subtle correlations between musical and physiological variables.

Break detection of annual Swiss temperature series

[1] Instrumental temperature series are often affected by artificial breaks (“break points”) due to (e.g.,) changes in station location, land-use, or instrumentation. The Swiss climate observation network offers a high number and density of stations, many long and relatively complete daily to sub-daily temperature series, and well-documented station histories (i.e., metadata). However, for many climate observation networks outside of Switzerland, detailed station histories are missing, incomplete, or inaccessible. To correct these records, the use of reliable statistical break detection methods is necessary. Here, we apply three statistical break detection methods to high-quality Swiss temperature series and use the available metadata to assess the methods. Due to the complex terrain in Switzerland, we are able to assess these methods under specific local conditions such as the Foehn or crest situations. We find that the temperature series of all stations are affected by artificial breaks (average = 1 break point / 48 years) with discrepancies in the abilities of the methods to detect breaks. However, by combining the three statistical methods, almost all of the detected break points are confirmed by metadata. In most cases, these break points are ascribed to a combination of factors in the station history.