Resistance prediction in AML: analysis of 4601 patients from MRC/NCRI, HOVON/SAKK, SWOG and MD Anderson Cancer Center

Therapeutic resistance remains the principal problem in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). We used area under receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUCs) to quantify our ability to predict therapeutic resistance in individual patients, where AUC=1.0 denotes perfect prediction and AUC=0.5 denotes a coin flip, using data from 4601 patients with newly diagnosed AML given induction therapy with 3+7 or more intense standard regimens in UK Medical Research Council/National Cancer Research Institute, Dutch–Belgian Cooperative Trial Group for Hematology/Oncology/Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research, US cooperative group SWOG and MD Anderson Cancer Center studies. Age, performance status, white blood cell count, secondary disease, cytogenetic risk and FLT3-ITD/NPM1 mutation status were each independently associated with failure to achieve complete remission despite no early death (‘primary refractoriness’). However, the AUC of a bootstrap-corrected multivariable model predicting this outcome was only 0.78, indicating only fair predictive ability. Removal of FLT3-ITD and NPM1 information only slightly decreased the AUC (0.76). Prediction of resistance, defined as primary refractoriness or short relapse-free survival, was even more difficult. Our limited ability to forecast resistance based on routinely available pretreatment covariates provides a rationale for continued randomization between standard and new therapies and supports further examination of genetic and posttreatment data to optimize resistance prediction in AML.

Meta-analysis in medical research: potentials and limitations

Meta-analysis, the statistical combination of results from several studies to produce a single estimate of a treatment effect or size of an association, continues to attract controversy. We illustrate and discuss the promises and limitations of meta-analysis. Meta-analysis of clinical trials can prevent delays in the introduction of effective treatments or lead to the timely identification of adverse effects. However, meta-analyses are liable to numerous biases, both at the level of the individual study and the selection of studies for inclusion in meta-analysis. The biases and confounding factors that threaten the validity of individual studies will also affect meta-analyses of observational studies. We argue that meta-analyses should only be performed within the framework of systematic reviews that have been prepared using methods that minimize bias and address the combinability of studies.

MARVIN: a medical research application framework based on open source software

This paper describes the open source framework MARVIN for rapid application development in the field of biomedical and clinical research. MARVIN applications consist of modules that can be plugged together in order to provide the functionality required for a specific experimental scenario. Application modules work on a common patient database that is used to store and organize medical data as well as derived data. MARVIN provides a flexible input/output system with support for many file formats including DICOM, various 2D image formats and surface mesh data. Furthermore, it implements an advanced visualization system and interfaces to a wide range of 3D tracking hardware. Since it uses only highly portable libraries, MARVIN applications run on Unix/Linux, Mac OS X and Microsoft Windows.

Myth creation in textbook writing : the case of randomised controlled trials in medical research

Textbooks, across all disciplines, are prone to contain errors; grammatical, editorial, factual, or judgemental. The following is an account of one of the possible effects of such errors; how an error becomes entrenched and even exaggerated as later textbooks fail to correct the original error. The example considered here concerns the origins of one of the most basic and important tools of to­ day's medical research, the randomised controlled trial. It is the result of a systematic study of 26 British, French and German history of medicine textbooks since 1996.

Lung volume reduction surgery versus conservative treatment in severe emphysema

Lung volume reduction surgery (LVRS) has been proposed for patients with severe emphysema to improve dyspnoea and pulmonary function. It is unknown, however, whether prognosis and pulmonary function in these patients can be improved compared to conservative treatment. The effect of LVRS and conservative therapy were compared prospectively in 57 patients with emphysema, who fulfilled the standard criteria for LVRS. The patients were divided into two groups according to their own decision. Patients in group 1 (n=29, eight females, mean+/-SEM 58.8+/-1.7 yrs, forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) 27.6+/-1.3% of the predicted value) underwent LVRS. Patients in group 2 (n=28, five females, 58.5+/-1.8 yrs, FEV1 30.8+/-1.4% pred) preferred to postpone LVRS. There were no significant differences in lung function between the two groups at baseline; however, there was a tendency towards better functional status in the control group. The control group had a better modified Medical Research Council (MMRC) dyspnea score (3.1+/-0.15 versus 3.5+/-0.1, p<0.04). Model-based comparisons were used to estimate the differences between the two groups over 18 months. Significant improvements were observed in the LVRS group compared to the control group in FEV1, total lung capacity (TLC), Residual volume (RV), MMRC dyspnea score and 6-min walking distance on all follow up visits. The estimated difference in FEV1 was 33% (95% confidence interval 13-58%; p>0.0001), in TLC 12.9% (7.9-18.8%; p>0.0001), in RV 60.9% 32.6-89.2%; p>0.0001), in 6-min walking distance 230 m (138-322 m; p<0.002) and in MMRC dyspnoea score 1.17 (0.79-1.55; p<0.0001). In conclusion, lung volume reduction surgery is more effective than conservative treatment for the improvement of dyspnoea, lung function and exercise capacity in selected patients with severe emphysema.

Progression of steroid-associated osteoporosis after heart transplantation

BACKGROUND: Osteoporosis has been recognized as an important side effect of long-term and of pulsed steroid application after heart transplantation. METHODS: In June 1989 a prospective clinical trial was started to study bone demineralization by quantitative computed tomographic scan. All patients received vitamin D and calcium. In group I (n = 30) synthetic calcitonin (40 Medical Research Council Standard Units subcutaneously per day was administered in 14-day cycles, whereas group II patients (n = 31) received a placebo preparation. Repeat trabecular and cortical quantitative computed tomographic scans of the thoracic (T12) and lumbar spine (L1, L2, L3) were obtained within 48 weeks after heart transplantation. RESULTS: Expressed as the means of T12, L1, L2, and L3, trabecular bone density decreased significantly from 100+/-24 to 79+/-29 mg/mL within 3 weeks after heart transplantation, followed by a further reduction to 67+/-29 mg/mL after 3 months in the calcitonin group. The values for cortical bone density decreased significantly from 229+/-37 to 202+/-40 mg/mL (calcitonin) 3 weeks after heart transplantation. Comparable results were obtained in the placebo group. In both groups bone density remained stable thereafter. Intergroup differences were not of statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: In heart transplant recipients progressive trabecular bone demineralization is limited to the first 3 postoperative months. Thereafter, bone density remained stable. A positive effect of synthetic calcitonin in addition to prophylactic calcium and vitamin D application could not be proved by repeat quantitative computed tomography.

Acute post-stroke blood pressure relative to premorbid levels in intracerebral haemorrhage versus major ischaemic stroke: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND It is often assumed that blood pressure increases acutely after major stroke, resulting in so-called post-stroke hypertension. In view of evidence that the risks and benefits of blood pressure-lowering treatment in acute stroke might differ between patients with major ischaemic stroke and those with primary intracerebral haemorrhage, we compared acute-phase and premorbid blood pressure levels in these two disorders. METHODS In a population-based study in Oxfordshire, UK, we recruited all patients presenting with stroke between April 1, 2002, and March 31, 2012. We compared all acute-phase post-event blood pressure readings with premorbid readings from 10-year primary care records in all patients with acute major ischaemic stroke (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale >3) versus those with acute intracerebral haemorrhage. FINDINGS Of 653 consecutive eligible patients, premorbid and acute-phase blood pressure readings were available for 636 (97%) individuals. Premorbid blood pressure (total readings 13,244) had been measured on a median of 17 separate occasions per patient (IQR 8-31). In patients with ischaemic stroke, the first acute-phase systolic blood pressure was much lower than after intracerebral haemorrhage (158·5 mm Hg [SD 30·1] vs 189·8 mm Hg [38·5], p<0·0001; for patients not on antihypertensive treatment 159·2 mm Hg [27·8] vs 193·4 mm Hg [37·4], p<0·0001), was little higher than premorbid levels (increase of 10·6 mm Hg vs 10-year mean premorbid level), and decreased only slightly during the first 24 h (mean decrease from <90 min to 24 h 13·6 mm Hg). By contrast with findings in ischaemic stroke, the mean first systolic blood pressure after intracerebral haemorrhage was substantially higher than premorbid levels (mean increase of 40·7 mm Hg, p<0·0001) and fell substantially in the first 24 h (mean decrease of 41·1 mm Hg; p=0·0007 for difference from decrease in ischaemic stroke). Mean systolic blood pressure also increased steeply in the days and weeks before intracerebral haemorrhage (regression p<0·0001) but not before ischaemic stroke. Consequently, the first acute-phase blood pressure reading after primary intracerebral haemorrhage was more likely than after ischaemic stroke to be the highest ever recorded (OR 3·4, 95% CI 2·3-5·2, p<0·0001). In patients with intracerebral haemorrhage seen within 90 min, the highest systolic blood pressure within 3 h of onset was 50 mm Hg higher, on average, than the maximum premorbid level whereas that after ischaemic stroke was 5·2 mm Hg lower (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION Our findings suggest that systolic blood pressure is substantially raised compared with usual premorbid levels after intracerebral haemorrhage, whereas acute-phase systolic blood pressure after major ischaemic stroke is much closer to the accustomed long-term premorbid level, providing a potential explanation for why the risks and benefits of lowering blood pressure acutely after stroke might be expected to differ. FUNDING Wellcome Trust, Wolfson Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, Stroke Association, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research.

Addition of docetaxel, zoledronic acid, or both to first-line long-term hormone therapy in prostate cancer (STAMPEDE): survival results from an adaptive, multiarm, multistage, platform randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND Long-term hormone therapy has been the standard of care for advanced prostate cancer since the 1940s. STAMPEDE is a randomised controlled trial using a multiarm, multistage platform design. It recruits men with high-risk, locally advanced, metastatic or recurrent prostate cancer who are starting first-line long-term hormone therapy. We report primary survival results for three research comparisons testing the addition of zoledronic acid, docetaxel, or their combination to standard of care versus standard of care alone. METHODS Standard of care was hormone therapy for at least 2 years; radiotherapy was encouraged for men with N0M0 disease to November, 2011, then mandated; radiotherapy was optional for men with node-positive non-metastatic (N+M0) disease. Stratified randomisation (via minimisation) allocated men 2:1:1:1 to standard of care only (SOC-only; control), standard of care plus zoledronic acid (SOC + ZA), standard of care plus docetaxel (SOC + Doc), or standard of care with both zoledronic acid and docetaxel (SOC + ZA + Doc). Zoledronic acid (4 mg) was given for six 3-weekly cycles, then 4-weekly until 2 years, and docetaxel (75 mg/m(2)) for six 3-weekly cycles with prednisolone 10 mg daily. There was no blinding to treatment allocation. The primary outcome measure was overall survival. Pairwise comparisons of research versus control had 90% power at 2·5% one-sided α for hazard ratio (HR) 0·75, requiring roughly 400 control arm deaths. Statistical analyses were undertaken with standard log-rank-type methods for time-to-event data, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs derived from adjusted Cox models. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00268476) and ControlledTrials.com (ISRCTN78818544). FINDINGS 2962 men were randomly assigned to four groups between Oct 5, 2005, and March 31, 2013. Median age was 65 years (IQR 60-71). 1817 (61%) men had M+ disease, 448 (15%) had N+/X M0, and 697 (24%) had N0M0. 165 (6%) men were previously treated with local therapy, and median prostate-specific antigen was 65 ng/mL (IQR 23-184). Median follow-up was 43 months (IQR 30-60). There were 415 deaths in the control group (347 [84%] prostate cancer). Median overall survival was 71 months (IQR 32 to not reached) for SOC-only, not reached (32 to not reached) for SOC + ZA (HR 0·94, 95% CI 0·79-1·11; p=0·450), 81 months (41 to not reached) for SOC + Doc (0·78, 0·66-0·93; p=0·006), and 76 months (39 to not reached) for SOC + ZA + Doc (0·82, 0·69-0·97; p=0·022). There was no evidence of heterogeneity in treatment effect (for any of the treatments) across prespecified subsets. Grade 3-5 adverse events were reported for 399 (32%) patients receiving SOC, 197 (32%) receiving SOC + ZA, 288 (52%) receiving SOC + Doc, and 269 (52%) receiving SOC + ZA + Doc. INTERPRETATION Zoledronic acid showed no evidence of survival improvement and should not be part of standard of care for this population. Docetaxel chemotherapy, given at the time of long-term hormone therapy initiation, showed evidence of improved survival accompanied by an increase in adverse events. Docetaxel treatment should become part of standard of care for adequately fit men commencing long-term hormone therapy. FUNDING Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council, Novartis, Sanofi-Aventis, Pfizer, Janssen, Astellas, NIHR Clinical Research Network, Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research.

High altitude, a natural research laboratory for the study of cardiovascular physiology and pathophysiology

High altitude constitutes an exciting natural laboratory for medical research. Although initially, the aim of high-altitude research was to understand the adaption of the organism to hypoxia and find treatments for altitude-related diseases, during the past decade or so, the scope of this research has broadened considerably. Two important observations led the foundation for the broadening of the scientific scope of high-altitude research. First, high-altitude pulmonary edema represents a unique model that allows studying fundamental mechanisms of pulmonary hypertension and lung edema in humans. Second, the ambient hypoxia associated with high-altitude exposure facilitates the detection of pulmonary and systemic vascular dysfunction at an early stage. Here, we will review studies that, by capitalizing on these observations, have led to the description of novel mechanisms underpinning lung edema and pulmonary hypertension and to the first direct demonstration of fetal programming of vascular dysfunction in humans.

Protocol for a population-based study of rheumatic heart disease prevalence and cardiovascular outcomes among schoolchildren in Nepal

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remains a major contributor to morbidity and mortality in developing countries. The reported prevalence rates of RHD are highly variable and mainly attributable to differences in the sensitivity of either clinical screening to detect advanced heart disease or echocardiographic evaluation where disease is diagnosed earlier across a continuous spectrum. The clinical significance of diagnosis of subclinical RHD by echocardiographic screening and early implementation of secondary prevention has not been clearly established. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The authors designed a cross-sectional survey to determine the prevalence of RHD in children from private and public schools between the age of 5 and 15 years in urban and rural areas of Eastern Nepal using both cardiac auscultation and echocardiographic evaluation. Children with RHD will be treated with secondary prevention and enrolled in a prospective cohort study. The authors will compare the prevalence rates by cardiac auscultation and echocardiography, determine risk factors associated with diagnosis and progression of RHD, investigate social and economic barriers for receiving adequate cardiac care and assess clinical outcomes with regular medical surveillance as a function of stage of disease at the time of diagnosis. Prospective clinical studies investigating the impact of secondary prevention for subclinical RHD on long-term clinical outcome will be of central relevance for future health resource utilisation in developing countries. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was considered ethically uncritical and was given an exempt status by the ethics committee at University of Bern, Switzerland. The study has been submitted to the National Nepal Health Research Council and was registered with http://www.ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01550068). The study findings will be reported in peer-reviewed publications. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV IDENTIFIER: NCT01550068.

The Virtual Skeleton Database: An Open Access Repository for Biomedical Research and Collaboration

Background: Statistical shape models are widely used in biomedical research. They are routinely implemented for automatic image segmentation or object identification in medical images. In these fields, however, the acquisition of the large training datasets, required to develop these models, is usually a time-consuming process. Even after this effort, the collections of datasets are often lost or mishandled resulting in replication of work. Objective: To solve these problems, the Virtual Skeleton Database (VSD) is proposed as a centralized storage system where the data necessary to build statistical shape models can be stored and shared. Methods: The VSD provides an online repository system tailored to the needs of the medical research community. The processing of the most common image file types, a statistical shape model framework, and an ontology-based search provide the generic tools to store, exchange, and retrieve digital medical datasets. The hosted data are accessible to the community, and collaborative research catalyzes their productivity. Results: To illustrate the need for an online repository for medical research, three exemplary projects of the VSD are presented: (1) an international collaboration to achieve improvement in cochlear surgery and implant optimization, (2) a population-based analysis of femoral fracture risk between genders, and (3) an online application developed for the evaluation and comparison of the segmentation of brain tumors. Conclusions: The VSD is a novel system for scientific collaboration for the medical image community with a data-centric concept and semantically driven search option for anatomical structures. The repository has been proven to be a useful tool for collaborative model building, as a resource for biomechanical population studies, or to enhance segmentation algorithms.

The application of medical informatics to the veterinary management programs at companion animal practices in Alberta, Canada: a case study.

Companion animals closely share their domestic environment with people and have the potential to, act as sources of zoonotic diseases. They also have the potential to be sentinels of infectious and noninfectious, diseases. With the exception of rabies, there has been minimal ongoing surveillance of, companion animals in Canada. We developed customized data extraction software, the University of, Calgary Data Extraction Program (UCDEP), to automatically extract and warehouse the electronic, medical records (EMR) from participating private veterinary practices to make them available for, disease surveillance and knowledge creation for evidence-based practice. It was not possible to build, generic data extraction software; the UCDEP required customization to meet the specific software, capabilities of the veterinary practices. The UCDEP, tailored to the participating veterinary practices', management software, was capable of extracting data from the EMR with greater than 99%, completeness and accuracy. The experiences of the people developing and using the UCDEP and the, quality of the extracted data were evaluated. The electronic medical record data stored in the data, warehouse may be a valuable resource for surveillance and evidence-based medical research.