18 resultados para Median-effect principle

em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça


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Introduction: As a previous study revealed, arts speech therapy (AST) affects cardiorespiratory interaction [1]. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether AST also has effects on brain oxygenation and hemodynamics measured non-invasively using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS). Material and methods: NIRS measurements were performed on 17 subjects (8 men and 9 women, mean age: 35.6 ± 12.7 y) during AST. Each measurement lasted 35 min, comprising 8 min pre-baseline, 10 min recitation and 20 min post-baseline. For each subject, measurements were performed for three different AST recitation tasks (recitation of alliterative, hexameter and prose verse). Relative concentration changes of oxyhemoglobin (Δ[O2Hb]) and deoxyhemoglobin (Δ[HHb]) as well as the tissue oxygenation index (TOI) were measured using a Hamamatsu NIRO300 NIRS device and a sensor placed on the subjects forehead. Movement artifacts were removed using a novel method [2]. Statistical analysis (Wilcoxon test) was applied to the data to investigate (i) if the recitation causes changes in the median values and/or in the Mayer wave power spectral density (MW-PSD, range: 0.07–0.13 Hz) of Δ[O2Hb], Δ[HHb] or TOI, and (ii) if these changes vary between the 3 recitation forms. Results: For all three recitation styles a significant (p < 0.05) decrease in Δ[O2Hb] and TOI was found, indicating a decrease in blood flow. These decreases did not vary significantly between the three styles. MW-PSD increased significantly for Δ[O2Hb] when reciting the hexameter and prose verse, and for Δ[HHb] and TOI when reciting alliterations and hexameter, representing an increase in Mayer waves. The MW-PSD increase for Δ[O2Hb] was significantly larger for the hexameter verse compared to alliterative and prose verse Conclusion: The study showed that AST affects brain hemodynamics (oxygenation, blood flow and Mayer waves). Recitation caused a significant decrease in cerebral blood flow for all recitation styles as well as an increase in Mayer waves, particularly for the hexameter, which may indicate a sympathetic activation. References 1. D. Cysarz, D. von Bonin, H. Lackner, P. Heusser, M. Moser, H. Bettermann. Am J Physiol Heart Circ Physiol, 287 (2) (2004), pp. H579–H587 2. F. Scholkmann, S. Spichtig, T. Muehlemann, M. Wolf. Physiol Meas, 31 (5) (2010), pp. 649–662

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Introduction: Throughout follicular growth and subsequent corpus luteum formation the leukocyte number increases and follicular vascularisation changes. These processes are enhanced under exogenous stimulation with gonadotropins. Cytokines released by leukocytes contribute to further recruitment and vascularisation of the follicle, and they play an important role in regulating ovarian steroidogenesis by influencing theca and granulosa–lutein cell function. Changes in cytokine and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) concentrations in the ovary as a consequence of gonadotropin stimulation may negatively influence oocyte quality. In this project we have compared the intrafollicular production of inflammatory cytokines and growth factors between natural IVF cycles (NC) and classical, gonadotropin-stimulated IVF cycles (gsIVF). Material and Methods: Serum on the day of oocyte retrieval and follicular fluid (FF) were collected in 37 NC and 39 gsIVF cycles. Thirteen women within this population underwent one NC and one gsIVF cycle each. A total of 14 cytokines from Bio-Plex panels I and II were determined in matched serum and FF samples using Luminex xMAP technology on the Bio-Plex(R) platform, using the serum protocol. Results: Tumour necrosis factor-alpha, RANTES, eotaxin and interferon-gamma-induced protein-10 levels were lower in FF than in serum, and thus not further investigated. Interleukin (IL)-6, -8, -10, -15, -18, monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1), VEGF and leukaemia inhibitory factor (LIF) showed higher median concentrations in FF than in serum, indicating possible ovarian production. Moreover, most of these showed higher evels in the gsIVF than in the NC groups in the serum, but not in the follicular fluid. IL-8 was reduced in gsIVF cycles. Conclusion: The fact that serum but not FF levels of the studied cytokines were higher in the stimulated than in the natural cycles can be attributed to the increased number of active follicles present after controlled ovarian stimulation.

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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Thrombolysis has been shown to improve the 3-month outcome of patients with ischemic stroke, but knowledge of the long-term effect of thrombolysis is limited. METHODS: The present study compares the long-term outcome of stroke patients who were treated with intra-arterial thrombolysis (IAT) using urokinase with the outcome of patients treated with aspirin. The modified Rankin Scale (mRS) was used to assess the outcome; 173 patients treated with IAT and 261 patients treated with aspirin from the Bernese Stroke Data Bank were eligible for the study. A matching algorithm taking into account patient age and stroke severity on admission (as measured by the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale [NIHSS]) was used to assemble an IAT and an aspirin group. RESULTS: One hundred and forty-four patients treated with IAT and 147 patients treated with aspirin could be matched and included in the comparative analysis. The median NIHSS score was 14 in each group. At 2 years, 56% of the patients treated with IAT and 42% of the patients treated with aspirin achieved functional independence (mRS, 0 to 2; P=0.037). Clinical outcome was excellent (mRS, 0 to 1) in 40% of the IAT and in 24% of the aspirin patients (P=0.008). Mortality was 23% and 24%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The present study provides evidence for a sustained effect of IAT when assessed 2 years after the stroke.

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PURPOSE: We assessed the effect of terazosin (Hytrin(R)) on functional bladder outlet obstruction in women. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Functional bladder outlet obstruction was defined as a maximum flow rate of less than 12 ml per second combined with a detrusor pressure at maximum flow rate of more than 20 cm H2O in pressure flow studies in the absence of neurological disorders or mechanical causes. In a prospective pilot study 15 women with functional bladder outlet obstruction were treated with terazosin. Terazosin was initiated at 1 mg daily and gradually increased to the maintenance dose of 5 mg daily during 2 weeks. Symptoms and urodynamic parameters were assessed before and 3 to 4 weeks after the initiation of alpha-blocker therapy. RESULTS: While on terazosin, voiding symptoms subjectively improved greater than 50% in 10 of the 15 women (p = 0.002). Median maximum urethral closure pressure at rest decreased significantly from 98 to 70 cm H2O (p = 0.001), median maximum detrusor pressure decreased from 45 to 35 cm H2O (p = 0.008), median detrusor pressure at maximum flow decreased from 34 to 27 ml per second and median post-void residual urine decreased from 120 to 40 ml (p = 0.006 and 0.002, respectively). There was a significant increase in the median maximum flow rate from 9 to 20 ml per second and in median voided volume from 300 to 340 ml (p = 0.0005 and 0.021, respectively). Storage symptoms, functional urethral length and maximum cystometric capacity did not change significantly with alpha-blocker therapy (p > 0.05). Overall terazosin resulted in a significant improvement in symptoms and urodynamic parameters in 10 of the 15 women (67%). CONCLUSIONS: Terazosin had a significant symptomatic and urodynamic effect in two-thirds of our patients. These results suggest that terazosin may be an effective treatment option in women with voiding dysfunction due to functional bladder outlet obstruction.

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BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) decreases morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected patients but is associated with considerable adverse events (AEs). METHODS: We examined the effect of AEs to ART on mortality, treatment modifications and drop-out in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. A cross-sectional evaluation of prevalence of 13 clinical and 11 laboratory parameters was performed in 1999 in 1,078 patients on ART. AEs were defined as abnormalities probably or certainly related to ART. A score including the number and severity of AEs was defined. The subsequent progression to death, drop-out and treatment modification due to intolerance were evaluated according to the baseline AE score and characteristics of individual AEs. RESULTS: Of the 1,078 patients, laboratory AEs were reported in 23% and clinical AEs in 45%. During a median follow up of 5.9 years, laboratory AEs were associated with higher mortality with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2-1.5; P < 0.001) per score point. For clinical AEs no significant association with increased mortality was found. In contrast, an increasing score for clinical AEs (HR 1.11,95% CI 1.04-1.18; P = 0.002), but not for laboratory AEs (HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.97-1.17; P = 0.17), was associated with antiretroviral treatment modification. AEs were not associated with a higher drop-out rate. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of laboratory AEs to antiretroviral drugs is associated with a higher mortality. Physicians seem to change treatments to relieve clinical symptoms, while accepting laboratory AEs. Minimizing laboratory drug toxicity seems warranted and its influence on survival should be further evaluated.

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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Data suggest that atorvastatin may be nephroprotective. This subanalysis of the Treating to New Targets study investigated how intensive lipid lowering with 80 mg of atorvastatin affects renal function when compared with 10 mg in patients with coronary heart disease. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, ; MEASUREMENTS: A total of 10,001 patients with coronary heart disease and LDL cholesterol levels of <130 mg/dl were randomly assigned to double-blind therapy with 10 or 80 mg/d atorvastatin. Estimated GFR using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation was compared at baseline and at the end of follow-up in 9656 participants with complete renal data. RESULTS: Mean estimated GFR at baseline was 65.6 +/- 11.4 ml/min per 1.73 m2 in the 10-mg group and 65.0 +/- 11.2 ml/min per 1.73 m2 in the 80-mg group. At the end of follow-up (median time to final creatinine measurement 59.5 months), mean change in estimated GFR showed an increase of 3.5 +/- 0.14 ml/min per 1.73 m2 with 10 mg and 5.2 +/- 0.14 ml/min per 1.73 m2 with 80 mg (P < 0.0001 for treatment difference). In the 80-mg arm, estimated GFR improved to > or = 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 in significantly more patients and declined to < 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 in significantly fewer patients than in the 10-mg arm. CONCLUSIONS: The expected 5-yr decline in renal function was not observed. Estimated GFR improved in both treatment groups but was significantly greater with 80 mg than with 10 mg, suggesting this benefit may be dosage related.

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OBJECTIVES: We sought to assess the safety and clinical efficacy of patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure under fluoroscopic guidance only, without intraprocedural echocardiography. BACKGROUND: Percutaneous PFO closure has been shown to be safe and feasible using several devices. It is generally performed using simultaneously fluoroscopic and transesophageal or intracardiac echocardiographic guidance. Transesophageal echocardiography requires sedation or general anesthesia and intubation to avoid aspiration. Intracardiac echocardiography is costly and has inherent risks. Both lengthen the procedure. The Amplatzer PFO Occluder (AGA Medical Corporation, Golden Valley, Minnesota) can be safely implanted without echocardiographic guidance. METHODS: A total of 620 patients (51 +/- 12 years; 66% male) underwent PFO closure using the Amplatzer PFO Occluder for secondary prevention of presumed paradoxical embolism. Based on size and mobility of the PFO and the interatrial septum, an 18-mm device was used in 50 patients, a 25-mm device in 492, and a 35-mm device in 78. RESULTS: All procedures were successful, with 5 procedural complications (0.8%): 4 arteriovenous fistulae requiring elective surgical correction, and 1 transient ischemic attack. Contrast transesophageal echocardiography at 6 months showed complete closure in 91% of patients, whereas a minimal, moderate, or large residual shunt persisted in 6%, 2%, and 1%, respectively. During a mean follow-up period of 3.0 +/- 1.9 years (median: 2.6 years; total patient-years: 1,871), 5 ischemic strokes, 8 transient ischemic attacks, and no peripheral emboli were reported. Freedom from recurrent ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, or peripheral embolism was 99% at 1 year, 99% at 2 years, and 97% at 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: The Amplatzer PFO Occluder affords excellent safety and long-term clinical efficacy of percutaneous PFO closure without intraprocedural echocardiography.

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BACKGROUND: The role of adjuvant dose-intensive chemotherapy and its efficacy according to baseline features has not yet been established. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Three hundred and forty-four patients were randomized to receive seven courses of standard-dose chemotherapy (SD-CT) or three cycles of dose-intensive epirubicin and cyclophosphamide (epirubicin 200 mg/m(2) plus cyclophosphamide 4 mg/m(2) with filgrastim and progenitor cell support). All patients were assigned tamoxifen at the completion of chemotherapy. The primary end point was disease-free survival (DFS). This paper updates the results and explores patterns of recurrence according to predicting baseline features. RESULTS: At 8.3-years median follow-up, patients assigned DI-EC had a significantly better DFS compared with those assigned SD-CT [8-year DFS percent 47% and 37%, respectively, hazard ratio (HR) 0.76; 95% confidence interval 0.58-1.00; P = 0.05]. Only patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease benefited from the DI-EC (HR 0.61; 95% confidence interval 0.39, 0.95; P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: After prolonged follow-up, DI-EC significantly improved DFS, but the effect was observed only in patients with ER-positive disease, leading to the hypothesis that efficacy of DI-EC may relate to its endocrine effects. Further studies designed to confirm the importance of endocrine responsiveness in patients treated with dose-intensive chemotherapy are encouraged.

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BACKGROUND Several treatment strategies are available for adults with advanced-stage Hodgkin's lymphoma, but studies assessing two alternative standards of care-increased dose bleomycin, etoposide, doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, vincristine, procarbazine, and prednisone (BEACOPPescalated), and doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine (ABVD)-were not powered to test differences in overall survival. To guide treatment decisions in this population of patients, we did a systematic review and network meta-analysis to identify the best initial treatment strategy. METHODS We searched the Cochrane Library, Medline, and conference proceedings for randomised controlled trials published between January, 1980, and June, 2013, that assessed overall survival in patients with advanced-stage Hodgkin's lymphoma given BEACOPPbaseline, BEACOPPescalated, BEACOPP variants, ABVD, cyclophosphamide (mechlorethamine), vincristine, procarbazine, and prednisone (C[M]OPP), hybrid or alternating chemotherapy regimens with ABVD as the backbone (eg, COPP/ABVD, MOPP/ABVD), or doxorubicin, vinblastine, mechlorethamine, vincristine, bleomycin, etoposide, and prednisone combined with radiation therapy (the Stanford V regimen). We assessed studies for eligibility, extracted data, and assessed their quality. We then pooled the data and used a Bayesian random-effects model to combine direct comparisons with indirect evidence. We also reconstructed individual patient survival data from published Kaplan-Meier curves and did standard random-effects Poisson regression. Results are reported relative to ABVD. The primary outcome was overall survival. FINDINGS We screened 2055 records and identified 75 papers covering 14 eligible trials that assessed 11 different regimens in 9993 patients, providing 59 651 patient-years of follow-up. 1189 patients died, and the median follow-up was 5·9 years (IQR 4·9-6·7). Included studies were of high methodological quality, and between-trial heterogeneity was negligible (τ(2)=0·01). Overall survival was highest in patients who received six cycles of BEACOPPescalated (HR 0·38, 95% credibility interval [CrI] 0·20-0·75). Compared with a 5 year survival of 88% for ABVD, the survival benefit for six cycles of BEACOPPescalated is 7% (95% CrI 3-10)-ie, a 5 year survival of 95%. Reconstructed individual survival data showed that, at 5 years, BEACOPPescalated has a 10% (95% CI 3-15) advantage over ABVD in overall survival. INTERPRETATION Six cycles of BEACOPPescalated significantly improves overall survival compared with ABVD and other regimens, and thus we recommend this treatment strategy as standard of care for patients with access to the appropriate supportive care.

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BACKGROUND Fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FENO), a non-invasive marker of eosinophilic airway inflammation, is increasingly used for diagnostic and therapeutic decisions in adult and paediatric asthma. Standardized guidelines for the measurement of FENO recommend performing FENO measurements before rather than after bronchial provocation tests. OBJECTIVE To investigate whether FENO levels decrease after a Mannitol dry powder (MDP) challenge in a clinical setting, and whether the extent of the decrease is influenced by number of MDP manoeuvres, baseline FENO, atopy and doctor diagnosed asthma. METHODS Children aged 6-16 years, referred for possible reactive airway disease to a respiratory outpatient clinic, performed an MDP challenge (Aridol®, Pharmaxis, Australia). FENO was measured in doublets immediately before and after the challenge test using the portable NIOX MINO® device (Aerocrine, Stockholm, Sweden). We analysed the data using Kruskal-Wallis rank tests, Wilcoxon signed rank tests and multivariable linear regressions. RESULTS One hundred and seven children completed both tests (mean±SD age 11.5±2.8 years). Overall, median (interquartile range) FENO decreased slightly by -2.5 ppb (-7.0, -0.5), from 18.5 ppb (10.5, 45.5) before the MDP challenge to 16.5 ppb thereafter (8.5, 40.5; p<0.001). In all participants, the change in FENO was smaller than one standard deviation of the baseline mean. The % fall in FENO was smaller in children with less MDP manoeuvres (e.g. higher bronchial responsiveness; p = 0.08) but was not influenced by levels of baseline FENO (p = 0.68), atopy (p = 0.84) or doctor diagnosed asthma (p = 0.93). CONCLUSION MDP challenge test influences FENO values but differences are small and clinically barely relevant.

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Background Open-irrigated radiofrequency catheter ablation (oiRFA) of atrial fibrillation (AF) imposes a volume load and risk of pulmonary edema. We sought to assess the effect of volume administration during ablation on left atrial (LA) pressure and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP). Methods LA pressure was measured via transseptal sheath at the beginning and end of 44 LA ablation procedures in 42 patients. BNP plasma levels were measured before and after 10 procedures. Results A median of 3,255 (interquartile range [IQR], 2,014)-mL saline was administered during the procedure. During LA ablation, the median fluid balance was +1,438 (IQR, 1,109) mL and LA pressure increased by median 3.7 (IQR, 5.9) mm Hg (P < 0.001). LA pressure did not change in the 19 procedures with furosemide administration (median ΔP = −0.3 [IQR, 7.1] mm Hg, P = 0.334). The correlation of LA pressure and fluid balance was weak (rs = 0.383, P = 0.021). BNP decreased in all four procedures starting in AF or atrial tachycardia and then converting to sinus rhythm (P = 0.068), and increased in all six procedures starting and finishing in sinus rhythm (P = 0.028). After ablation, symptomatic volume overload responding to diuresis occurred in three patients. Conclusions A substantial intravascular volume load during oiRFA can be absorbed with little change in LA pressure, such that LA pressure is not a reliable indicator of the fluid balance. Subsequent redistribution of the volume load imposes a risk after the procedure. Conversion to sinus rhythm may improve ability to acutely accommodate the volume load.

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AIM The effect of long-term high-intensity statin therapy on coronary atherosclerosis among patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is unknown. The aim of this study was to quantify the impact of high-intensity statin therapy on plaque burden, composition, and phenotype in non-infarct-related arteries of STEMI patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). METHODS AND RESULTS Between September 2009 and January 2011, 103 STEMI patients underwent intravascular ultrasonography (IVUS) and radiofrequency ultrasonography (RF-IVUS) of the two non-infarct-related epicardial coronary arteries (non-IRA) after successful primary PCI. Patients were treated with high-intensity rosuvastatin (40 mg/day) throughout 13 months and serial intracoronary imaging with the analysis of matched segments was available for 82 patients with 146 non-IRA. The primary IVUS end-point was the change in per cent atheroma volume (PAV). After 13 months, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) had decreased from a median of 3.29 to 1.89 mmol/L (P < 0.001), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels had increased from 1.10 to 1.20 mmol/L (P < 0.001). PAV of the non-IRA decreased by -0.9% (95% CI: -1.56 to -0.25, P = 0.007). Patients with regression in at least one non-IRA were more common (74%) than those without (26%). Per cent necrotic core remained unchanged (-0.05%, 95% CI: -1.05 to 0.96%, P = 0.93) as did the number of RF-IVUS defined thin cap fibroatheromas (124 vs. 116, P = 0.15). CONCLUSION High-intensity rosuvastatin therapy over 13 months is associated with regression of coronary atherosclerosis in non-infarct-related arteries without changes in RF-IVUS defined necrotic core or plaque phenotype among STEMI patients.

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The role of Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) in mitigating climate change, indicating soil quality and ecosystem function has created research interested to know the nature of SOC at landscape level. The objective of this study was to examine variation and distribution of SOC in a long-term land management at a watershed and plot level. This study was based on meta-analysis of three case studies and 128 surface soil samples from Ethiopia. Three sites (Gununo, Anjeni and Maybar) were compared after considering two Land Management Categories (LMC) and three types of land uses (LUT) in quasi-experimental design. Shapiro-Wilk tests showed non-normal distribution (p = 0.002, a = 0.05) of the data. SOC median value showed the effect of long-term land management with values of 2.29 and 2.38 g kg-1 for less and better-managed watersheds, respectively. SOC values were 1.7, 2.8 and 2.6 g kg-1 for Crop (CLU), Grass (GLU) and Forest Land Use (FLU), respectively. The rank order for SOC variability was FLU>GLU>CLU. Mann-Whitney U and Kruskal-Wallis test showed a significant difference in the medians and distribution of SOC among the LUT, between soil profiles (p<0.05, confidence interval 95%, a = 0.05) while it is not significant (p>0.05) for LMC. The mean and sum rank of Mann Whitney U and Kruskal Wallis test also showed the difference at watershed and plot level. Using SOC as a predictor, cross-validated correct classification with discriminant analysis showed 46 and 49% for LUT and LMC, respectively. The study showed how to categorize landscapes using SOC with respect to land management for decision-makers.

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Introduction. Erroneous answers in studies on the misinformation effect (ME) can be reduced in different ways. In some studies, ME was reduced by SM questions, warnings, or a low credibility of the source of post-event information (PEI). Results are inconsistent, however. Of course, a participant can deliberately decide to refrain from reporting a critical item only when the difference between the original event and the PEI is distinguishable in principle. We were interested in the question to what extent the influence of erroneous information on a central aspect of the original event can be reduced by different means applied singly or in combination. Method. With a 2 (credibility; high vs. low) x 2 (warning; present vs. absent) between subjects design and an additional control group that received neither misinformation nor a warning (N = 116), we examined the above-mentioned factors’ influence on the ME. Participants viewed a short video of a robbery. The critical item suggested in the PEI was that the victim was given a kick by the perpetrator (which he was actually not). The memory test consisted of a two-forced-choice recognition test followed by a SM test. Results. To our surprise, neither a main effect of erroneous PEI nor a main effect of credibility was found. The error rates for the critical item in the control group (50%) as well as in the high (65%) and low (52%) credibility condition without warning did not significantly differ. A warning about possible misleading information in the PEI significantly reduced the influence of misinformation in both credibility conditions by 32-37%. Using a SM question significantly reduced the error rate too, but only in the high credibility no warning condition. Conclusion and Future Research. Our results show that, contrary to a warning or the use of a SM question, low source credibility did not reduce the ME. The most striking finding was, however, the absence of a main effect of erroneous PEI. Due to the high error rate in the control group, we suspect that the wrong answers might have been caused either by the response format (recognition test) or by autosuggestion possibly promoted by the high schema-consistency of the critical item. First results of a post-study in which we used open-ended questions before the recognition test support the former assumption. Results of a replication of this study using open-ended questions prior to the recognition test will be available by June.

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BACKGROUND Patients with HIV exposed to the antiretroviral drug abacavir may have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). There is concern that this association arises because of a channelling bias. Even if exposure is a risk, it is not clear how that risk changes as exposure cumulates. METHODS We assess the effect of exposure to abacavir on the risk of CVD events in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. We use a new marginal structural Cox model to estimate the effect of abacavir as a flexible function of past exposures while accounting for risk factors that potentially lie on a causal pathway between exposure to abacavir and CVD. RESULTS 11,856 patients were followed for a median of 6.6 years; 365 patients had a CVD event (4.6 events per 1000 patient years). In a conventional Cox model, recent - but not cumulative - exposure to abacavir increased the risk of a CVD event. In the new marginal structural Cox model, continued exposure to abacavir during the past four years increased the risk of a CVD event (hazard ratio 2.06, 95% confidence interval 1.43-2.98). The estimated function for the effect of past exposures suggests that exposure during the past 6 to 36 months caused the greatest increase in risk. CONCLUSIONS Abacavir increases the risk of a CVD event: the effect of exposure is not immediate, rather the risk increases as exposure cumulates over the past few years. This gradual increase in risk is not consistent with a rapidly acting mechanism, such as acute inflammation.