Vulnerability to Heatwaves, Floods and Mass Movements in Mountainous Terrain: Test Cases in South Tyrol

South Tyrol is a region that has been often affected by various mountain hazards such as floods, flash floods, debris flows, rock falls, and snow avalanches. Furthermore, areas located in lower altitudes are often influenced by high temperatures and heat waves. Climate change is expected to influence the frequency, magnitude, and spatial extent of these natural phenomena. For this reason, local authorities and other stakeholders are in need of tools that can enable them to reduce the risk posed by these processes. In the present study, a variety of methods are applied at local level in different places in South Tyrol that aim at: (1) the assessment of future losses caused by the occurrence of debris flows by using a vulnerability curve, (2) the assessment of social vulnerability based on the risk awareness of the exposed people to floods, and (3) the assessment of spatial exposure and social vulnerability of the exposed population to heat waves. The results show that, in South Tyrol, the risk to a number of hazards can be reduced by: (1) improving documentation for past events in order to improve existing vulnerability curves and the assessment of future losses, (2) raising citizens' awareness and responsibility to improve coping capacity to floods, and (3) extending heat wave early warning systems to more low-lying areas of South Tyrol.

Mass-movement and flood-induced deposits in Lake Ledro, southern Alps, Italy: implications for Holocene palaeohydrology and natural hazards

High-resolution seismic profiles and sediment cores from Lake Ledro combined with soil and riverbed samples from the lake's catchment area are used to assess the recurrence of natural hazards (earthquakes and flood events) in the southern Italian Alps during the Holocene. Two well-developed deltas and a flat central basin are identified on seismic profiles in Lake Ledro. Lake sediments have been finely laminated in the basin since 9000 cal. yr BP and frequently interrupted by two types of sedimentary events (SEs): light-coloured massive layers and dark-coloured graded beds. Optical analysis (quantitative organic petrography) of the organic matter present in soil, riverbed and lacustrine samples together with lake sediment bulk density and grain-size analysis illustrate that light-coloured layers consist of a mixture of lacustrine sediments and mainly contain algal particles similar to the ones observed in background sediments. Light-coloured layers thicker than 1.5 cm in the main basin of Lake Ledro are synchronous to numerous coeval mass-wasting deposits remoulding the slopes of the basin. They are interpreted as subaquatic mass-movements triggered by historical and pre-historical regional earthquakes dated to AD2005, AD1891, AD1045 and 1260, 2545, 2595, 3350, 3815, 4740, 7190, 9185 and 11 495 cal. yr BP. Darkcoloured SEs develop high-amplitude reflections in front of the deltas and in the deep central basin. These beds are mainly made of terrestrial organic matter (soils and lignocellulosic debris) and are interpreted as resulting from intense hyperpycnal flood event. Mapping and quantifying the amount of soil material accumulated in the Holocene hyperpycnal flood deposits of the sequence allow estimating that the equivalent soil thickness eroded over the catchment area reached up to 5mm during the largest Holocene flood events. Such significant soil erosion is interpreted as resulting from the combination of heavy rainfall and snowmelt. The recurrence of flash flood events during the Holocene was, however, not high enough to affect pedogenesis processes and highlight several wet regional periods during the Holocene. The Holocene period is divided into four phases of environmental evolution. Over the first half of the Holocene, a progressive stabilization of the soils present through the catchment of Lake Ledro was associated with a progressive reforestation of the area and only interrupted during the wet 8.2 event when the soil destabilization was particularly important. Lower soil erosion was recorded during the mid-Holocene climatic optimum (8000-4200 cal. yr BP) and associated with higher algal production. Between 4200 and 3100 cal. yr BP, both wetter climate and human activities within the drainage basin drastically increased soil erosion rates. Finally, from 3100 cal. yr BP to the present-day, data suggest increasing and changing human land use.

Mass Movement-Induced Tsunami Hazard on Perialpine Lake Lucerne (Switzerland): Scenarios and Numerical Experiments

Previous studies of the sediments of Lake Lucerne have shown that massive subaqueous mass movements affecting unconsolidated sediments on lateral slopes are a common process in this lake, and, in view of historical reports describing damaging waves on the lake, it was suggested that tsunamis generated by mass movements represent a considerable natural hazard on the lakeshores. Newly performed numerical simulations combining two-dimensional, depth-averaged models for mass-movement propagation and for tsunami generation, propagation and inunda- tion reproduce a number of reported tsunami effects. Four analysed mass-movement scenarios—three based on documented slope failures involving volumes of 5.5 to 20.8 9 106 m3—show peak wave heights of several metres and maximum runup of 6 to [10 m in the directly affected basins, while effects in neighbouring basins are less drastic. The tsunamis cause large-scale inundation over distances of several hundred metres on flat alluvial plains close to the mass-movement source areas. Basins at the ends of the lake experience regular water-level oscillations with characteristic periods of several minutes. The vulnerability of potentially affected areas has increased dramatically since the times of the damaging historical events, recommending a thorough evaluation of the hazard.

Reconstructing 4000 years of mass movement and tsunami history in a deep peri-Alpine lake (Lake Geneva, France-Switzerland)

The study of mass movements in lake sediments provides insights into past natural hazards at historic and prehistoric timescales. Sediments from the deep basin of Lake Geneva reveal a succession of six large-scale (volumes of 22 × 106 to 250 × 106 m3) mass-transport deposits, associated with five mass-movement events within 2600 years (4000 cal bp to 563 ad). The mass-transport deposits result from: (i) lateral slope failures (mass-transport deposit B at 3895 ± 225 cal bp and mass-transport deposits A and C at 3683 ± 128 cal bp); and (ii) Rhône delta collapses (mass-transport deposits D to G dated at 2650 ± 150 cal bp, 2185 ± 85 cal bp, 1920 ± 120 cal bp and 563 ad, respectively). Mass-transport deposits A and C were most probably triggered by an earthquake, whereas the Rhône delta collapses were likely to be due to sediment overload with a rockfall as the external trigger (mass-transport deposit G, the Tauredunum event in 563 ad known from historical records), an earthquake (mass-transport deposit E) or unknown external triggers (mass-transport deposits D and F). Independent of their origin and trigger mechanisms, numerical simulations show that all of these recorded mass-transport deposits are large enough to have generated at least metre-scale tsunamis during mass movement initiation. Since the Tauredunum event in 563 ad, two small-scale (volumes of 1 to 2 × 106 m3) mass-transport deposits (H and I) are present in the seismic record, both of which are associated with small lateral slope failures. Mass-transport deposits H and I might be related to earthquakes in Lausanne/Geneva (possibly) 1322 ad and Aigle 1584 ad, respectively. The sedimentary record of the deep basin of Lake Geneva, in combination with the historical record, show that during the past 3695 years, at least six tsunamis were generated by mass movements, indicating that the tsunami hazard in the Lake Geneva region should not be neglected, although such events are not frequent with a recurrence time of 0·0016 yr−1.

Signatures of slope failures and river-delta collapses in a perialpine lake (Lake Lucerne, Switzerland)

Historical reports from the 17th Century document two destructive tsunamis with runups exceeding 5 m, affecting proximal basins of Lake Lucerne (Switzerland). One event in AD 1601 is coeval with a strong nearby earthquake (MW ca 5.9), which caused extensive slope failures in many parts of the lake. The second event in AD 1687 is associated with an apparently spontaneous partial collapse of the Muota river delta. This study combines high-resolution bathymetry, reflection seismic and lithological data in order to document the sedimentary and morphological signatures of the two subaqueous mass movements that probably generated the observed tsunamis. Such mass movements are significant as a common sedimentation process and as natural hazard in fjord-type lakes and similar environments. The deposits, covering large parts of the basins with thicknesses reaching >10 m, consist of two subunits: A lower ‘massflow deposit’ contains variably deformed sediments from the source areas. Its emplacement affected pre-existing sediments, incorporating thin sediment slices into the deposit and increasing its volume. Deep-reaching deformation near This is an Accepted Article that has been peer-reviewed and approved for publication in the Sedimentology, but has yet to undergo copy-editing and proof correction.

Earthquake- induced Geomorphology: A Neotectonic Study at the Front of the Alps (Lake Thun & Aare Valley, Switzerland)

We present a multi-disciplinary two-step approach to assess the potential for seismic hazard of the Aare valley and perialpine Lake Thun (Switzerland). High-resolution seismic images and multibeam-bathymetric data, complemented by field observations represent the tools to identify potentially active seismogenic fault structures. Several second-order earthquake effects such as subaqueous mass movements, seismites and liquefaction structures have been observed in Lake Thun and ultimately document the seismic activity of the study area. A first investigation of possibly first-order active structures is presented in the scope of this study. Recently acquired bathymetric data in Lake Thun reveal significant morphologic depressions aligning with an observed lineament on land. Furthermore, high-resolution seismic images indicate potential fault structures in Lake Thun. However, their continuation with depth has to be verified with a multichannel seismic campaign, scheduled for March 2015.