The role of upper-level dynamics and surface processes for the Pakistan flood of July 2010

In July and August 2010 floods of unprecedented impact afflicted Pakistan. The floods resulted from a series of intense multi-day precipitation events in July and early August. At the same time a series of blocking anticyclones dominated the upper-level flow over western Russia and breaking waves i.e. equatorward extrusions of stratospheric high potential vorticity (PV) air formed along the downstream flank of the blocks. Previous studies suggested that these extratropical upper-level breaking waves were crucial for instigating the precipitation events in Pakistan. Here a detailed analysis is provided of the extratropical forcing of the precipitation. Piecewise PV inversion is used to quantify the extratropical upper-level forcing associated with the wave breaking and trajectories are calculated to study the pathways and source regions of the moisture that precipitated over Pakistan. Limited-area model simulations are carried out to complement the Lagrangian analysis. The precipitation events over Pakistan resulted from a combination of favourable boundary conditions with strong extratropical and monsoonal forcing factors. Above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean led to an elevated lower-tropospheric moisture content. Surface monsoonal depressions ensured the transport of moist air from the ocean towards northeastern Pakistan. Along this pathway the air parcel humidity increased substantially (60–90% of precipitated moisture) via evapotranspiration from the land surface. Extratropical breaking waves influenced the surface wind field substantially by enhancing the wind component directed towards the mountains which reinforced the precipitation.

Warm Conveyor Belts in the ERA-Interim Dataset (1979–2010): Part I: Climatology and Potential Vorticity Evolution

A global climatology of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) is presented for the years 1979–2010, based on trajectories calculated with Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data. WCB trajectories are identified as strongly ascending air parcels (600 hPa in 2 days) near extratropical cyclones. Corroborating earlier studies, WCBs are more frequent during winter than summer and they ascend preferentially in the western ocean basins between 25° and 50° latitude. Before ascending, WCB trajectories typically approach from the subtropics in summer and from more midlatitude regions in winter. Considering humidity, cloud water, and potential temperature along WCBs confirms that they experience strong condensation and integrated latent heating during the ascent (typically >20 K). Liquid and ice water contents along WCBs peak at about 700 and 550 hPa, respectively. The mean potential vorticity (PV) evolution shows typical tropospheric values near 900 hPa, followed by an increase to almost 1 potential vorticity unit (PVU) at 700 hPa, and a decrease to less than 0.5 PVU at 300 hPa. These low PV values in the upper troposphere constitute significant negative anomalies with amplitudes of 1–3 PVU, which can strongly influence the downstream flow. Considering the low-level diabatic PV production, (i) WCBs starting at low latitudes (<40°) are unlikely to attain high PV (due to weak planetary vorticity) although they exhibit the strongest latent heating, and (ii) for those ascending at higher latitudes, a strong vertical heating gradient and high absolute vorticity are both important. This study therefore provides climatological insight into the cloud diabatic formation of significant positive and negative PV anomalies in the extratropical lower and upper troposphere, respectively.

On the Co-Occurrence of Warm Conveyor Belt Outflows and PV Streamers*

The co-occurrence of warm conveyor belts (WCBs), strongly ascending moist airstreams in extratropical cyclones, and stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) streamers, indicators for breaking Rossby waves on the tropopause, is investigated for a 21-yr period in the Northern Hemisphere using Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data. WCB outflows and PV streamers are respectively identified as two- and three-dimensional objects and tracked during their life cycle. PV streamers are more frequent than WCB outflows and nearly 15% of all PV streamers co-occur with WCBs during their life cycle, whereas about 60% of all WCB outflows co-occur with PV streamers. Co-occurrences are most frequent over the North Atlantic and North Pacific in spring and winter. WCB outflows are often located upstream of the PV streamers and form earlier, indicating the importance of diabatic processes for downstream Rossby wave breaking. Less frequently, PV streamers occur first, leading to the formation of new WCBs.

Clinical and haemodynamic outcomes in 658 patients receiving the Perceval sutureless aortic valve: early results from a prospective European multicentre study (the Cavalier Trial)†.

OBJECTIVES The aim of the Cavalier trial was to evaluate the safety and performance of the Perceval sutureless aortic valve in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR). We report the 30-day clinical and haemodynamic outcomes from the largest study cohort with a sutureless valve. METHODS From February 2010 to September 2013, 658 consecutive patients (mean age 77.8 years; 64.4% females; mean logistic EuroSCORE 10.2%) underwent AVR in 25 European Centres. Isolated AVRs were performed in 451 (68.5%) patients with a less invasive approach in 219 (33.3%) cases. Of the total, 40.0% were octogenarians. Congenital bicuspid aortic valve was considered an exclusion criterion. RESULTS Implantation was successful in 628 patients (95.4%). In isolated AVR through sternotomy, the mean cross-clamp time and the cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) time were 32.6 and 53.7 min, and with the less invasive approach 38.8 and 64.5 min, respectively. The 30-day overall and valve-related mortality rates were 3.7 and 0.5%, respectively. Valve explants, stroke and endocarditis occurred in 0.6, 2.1 and in 0.1% of cases, respectively. Preoperative mean and peak pressure gradients decreased from 44.8 and 73.24 mmHg to 10.24 and 19.27 mmHg at discharge, respectively. The mean effective orifice area improved from 0.72 to 1.46 cm(2). CONCLUSIONS The current 30-day results show that the Perceval valve is safe (favourable haemodynamic effect and low complication rate), and can be implanted with a fast and reproducible technique after a short learning period. Short cross-clamp and CPB times were achieved in both isolated and combined procedures. The Perceval valve represents a promising alternative to biological AVR, especially with a less invasive approach and in older patients.

European multicentre experience with the sutureless Perceval valve: clinical and haemodynamic outcomes up to 5 years in over 700 patients†.

OBJECTIVES This report summarizes the 5-year clinical and haemodynamic data from three prospective, European multicentre trials with the Perceval sutureless aortic valve. METHODS From April 2007 to August 2012, 731 consecutive patients (mean age: 78.5 years; 68.1% females; mean logistic EuroSCORE 10.9%) underwent AVR with the Perceval valve in 25 European centres. Isolated AVR was performed in 498 (68.1%) patients. A minimally invasive approach was performed in 189 (25.9%) cases. The cumulative follow-up was 729 patients-years. RESULTS In isolated AVR, mean cross-clamp and cardiopulmonary bypass times were 30.8 and 50.8 min in full sternotomy, and 37.6 and 64.4 min in the minimally invasive approach, respectively. Early cardiac-related deaths occurred in 1.9%. Overall survival rates at 1 and 5 years were 92.1 and 74.7%, respectively. Major paravalvular leak occurred in 1.4% and 1% at early and late follow-up, respectively. Significant improvement in clinical status was observed postoperatively in the majority of patients. Mean and peak gradients decreased from 42.9 and 74.0 mmHg preoperatively, to 7.8 and 16 mmHg at the 3-year follow-up. LV mass decreased from 254.5 to 177.4 g at 3 years. CONCLUSIONS This European multicentre experience, with the largest cohort of patients with sutureless valves to date, shows excellent clinical and haemodynamic results that remain stable even up to the 5-year follow-up. Even in this elderly patient cohort with 40% octogenarians, both early and late mortality rates were very low. There were no valve migrations, structural valve degeneration or valve thrombosis in the follow-up. The sutureless technique is a promising alternative to biological aortic valve replacement.

The sutureless aortic valve at 1 year: A large multicenter cohort study

OBJECTIVE Sutureless aortic valve replacement (AVR) offers an alternative to standard AVR in aortic stenosis. This prospective, single-arm study aimed to demonstrate safety and effectiveness of a bovine pericardial sutureless aortic valve at 1 year. METHODS From February 2010 to September 2013, 658 patients (mean age 78.3 ± 5.6 years; 40.0% octogenarian; 64.4% female; mean Society of Thoracic Surgeons score 7.2 ± 7.4) underwent sutureless AVR in 25 European centers. Concomitant cardiac procedures were performed in 29.5% and minimally invasive cardiac surgery in 33.3%. RESULTS One-year site-reported event rates were 8.1% for all-cause mortality, 4.5% for cardiac mortality, 3.0% for stroke, 1.9% for valve-related reoperation, 1.4% for endocarditis, and 0.6% for major paravalvular leak. No valve thrombosis, migration, or structural valve deterioration occurred. New York Heart Association class improved at least 1 level in 77.5% and remained stable (70.4% New York Heart Association class I or II at 1 year). Mean effective orifice area was 1.5 ± 0.4 cm(2); pressure gradient was 9.2 ± 5.0 mm Hg. Left ventricular mass decreased from 138.5 g/m(2) before surgery to 115.3 g/m(2) at 1 year (P < .001). Echocardiographic core laboratory findings confirmed that paravalvular leak was rare and remained stable during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS The Perceval sutureless valve resulted in low 1-year event rates in intermediate-risk patients undergoing AVR. New York Heart Association class improved in more than three-quarters of patients and remained stable. These data support the safety and efficacy to 1 year of the Perceval sutureless valve in this intermediate-risk population.