Dégradation des forêts et stock de carbone dans la biomasse épigée de la forêt dense humide de Manompana - Nord Est de Madagascar

L’estimation du stock de carbone contenu dans les forêts peut être effectuée de plusieurs manières. Les méthodes les plus connues sont destructives et nécessitent l’abattage d’un grand nombre représentatif d’arbres. Cette représentativité est difficilement atteinte dans les forêts tropicales, présentant une diversité d’espèces exceptionnelles, comme à Madagascar. Afin d’évaluer le niveau de dégradation des forêts, une étude d'images par télédétection est effectuée au moyen de l’analyse du signal radiométrique, combinée à un inventaire non destructif de biomasse. L’étude de la dynamique du paysage proposé est alors basée sur une correction atmosphérique d’une image SPOT 5, de l’année 2009, et sur une classification semi supervisée de l’occupation des sols, combinant une classification préliminaire non supervisée, un échantillonnage aléatoire des classes et une classification supervisée avec un maximum de vraisemblance. La validation est effectuée à l’aide de points indépendants relevés lors des inventaires de biomasse avec des valeurs du stock de carbone bien précises. La classification non supervisée a permis de ressortir deux classes de forêt dénommées « peu dégradée » et « dégradée ». La première désigne l’état climax (le stock de carbone a atteint une valeur qui varie peu) alors que la seconde est caractérisée par un taux de carbone plus faible que le niveau climax, mais qui peut être atteint sans perturbation. Cette première classification permet alors de répartir les placettes d’inventaire dans chaque classe. La méthode d’inventaire recueille à la fois des données dendrométriques classiques (espèce, densité, hauteur totale, hauteur fût, diamètre) et des échantillons représentatifs de branches et de feuilles sur un arbre. Ces différents paramètres avec la densité de bois permettent d’établir une équation allométrique de laquelle est estimée la biomasse totale d’un arbre et conséquemment de la formation forestière. Par la suite, la classification supervisée a été effectuée à partir d’échantillons aléatoires donnant la valeur de séparabilité des classes, de la classification finale. De plus, les valeurs de stocks de carbone à l’hectare, estimées de chaque placette, ont permis de valider cette classification et d’avoir une évaluation de la précision. La connaissance de ce niveau de dégradation issue de données satellitaires à haute résolution spatiale, combinées à des données d’inventaire, ouvre le champ du suivi interannuel du stock de carbone et subséquemment de la modélisation de la situation future du stock de carbone dans différents types de forêts.

Deforestation and forest degradation monitoring and assessment of biomass and carbon stock of lowland rainforest in the Analanjirofo region, Madagascar

Madagascar is currently developing a policy and strategies to enhance the sustainable management of its natural resources, encouraged by United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and REDD. To set up a sustainable financing scheme methodologies have to be provided that estimate, prevent and mitigate leakage, develop national and regional baselines, and estimate carbon benefits. With this research study this challenge was tried to be addressed by analysing a lowland rainforest in the Analanjirofo region in the district of Soanierana Ivongo, North East of Madagascar. For two distinguished forest degradation stages: “low degraded forest” and “degraded forest” aboveground biomass and carbon stock was assessed. The corresponding rates of carbon within those two classes were calculated and linked to a multi-temporal set of SPOT satellite data acquired in 1991, 2004 and 2009. Deforestation and particularly degradation and the related carbon stock developments were analysed. With the assessed data for the 3 years 1991, 2004 and 2009 it was possible to model a baseline and to develop a forest prediction for 2020 for Analanjirofo region in the district of Soanierana Ivongo. These results, developed applying robust methods, may provide important spatial information regarding the priorities in planning and implementation of future REDD+ activities in the area.

Macro Monte Carlo for dose calculation of proton beams

Although the Monte Carlo (MC) method allows accurate dose calculation for proton radiotherapy, its usage is limited due to long computing time. In order to gain efficiency, a new macro MC (MMC) technique for proton dose calculations has been developed. The basic principle of the MMC transport is a local to global MC approach. The local simulations using GEANT4 consist of mono-energetic proton pencil beams impinging perpendicularly on slabs of different thicknesses and different materials (water, air, lung, adipose, muscle, spongiosa, cortical bone). During the local simulation multiple scattering, ionization as well as elastic and inelastic interactions have been taken into account and the physical characteristics such as lateral displacement, direction distributions and energy loss have been scored for primary and secondary particles. The scored data from appropriate slabs is then used for the stepwise transport of the protons in the MMC simulation while calculating the energy loss along the path between entrance and exit position. Additionally, based on local simulations the radiation transport of neutrons and the generated ions are included into the MMC simulations for the dose calculations. In order to validate the MMC transport, calculated dose distributions using the MMC transport and GEANT4 have been compared for different mono-energetic proton pencil beams impinging on different phantoms including homogeneous and inhomogeneous situations as well as on a patient CT scan. The agreement of calculated integral depth dose curves is better than 1% or 1 mm for all pencil beams and phantoms considered. For the dose profiles the agreement is within 1% or 1 mm in all phantoms for all energies and depths. The comparison of the dose distribution calculated using either GEANT4 or MMC in the patient also shows an agreement of within 1% or 1 mm. The efficiency of MMC is up to 200 times higher than for GEANT4. The very good level of agreement in the dose comparisons demonstrate that the newly developed MMC transport results in very accurate and efficient dose calculations for proton beams.

Dual-loop circuits in postoperative atrial macro re-entrant tachycardias

Background Patients late after open-heart surgery may develop dual-loop reentrant atrial arrhythmias, and mapping and catheter ablation remain challenging despite computer-assisted mapping techniques. Objectives The purpose of the study was to demonstrate the prevalence and characteristics of dual-loop reentrant arrhythmias, and to define the optimal mapping and ablation strategy. Methods Fourty consecutive patients (mean age 52+/-12 years) with intra-atrial reentrant tachycardia (IART) after open-heart surgery (with an incision of the right atrial free wall) were studied. Dual-loop IART was defined as the presence of two simultaneous atrial circuits. Following an abrupt tachycardia change during radiofrequency (RF) ablation, electrical disconnection of the targeted reentry isthmus from the remaining circuit was demonstrated by entrainment mapping. Furthermore, the second circuit loop was localized using electroanatomic mapping and/or entrainment mapping. Results Dual-loop IART was demonstrated in 8 patients (20%, 5 patients with congenital heart disease, 3 with acquired heart disease). Dual-loop IART included an isthmus-dependant atrial flutter combined with a reentry related to the atriotomy scar. The diagnosis of dual-loop IART required the comparison of entrainment mapping before and after tachycardiamodification. Overall, 35 patients had successful RF ablation (88%). Success rates were lower in patients with dual-loop IART than in patient without dual-loop IART. Ablation failures in 3 patients with dual-loop IART were related to the inability to properly transect the second tachycardia isthmus in the right atrial free wall. Conclusions Dual-loop IART is relatively common after heart surgery involving a right atriotomy. Abrupt tachycardia change and specific entrainment mapping maneuvers demonstrate these circuits. Electroanatomic mapping appears to be important to assist catheter ablation of periatriotomy circuits.

Neuropathological survey of fallen stock: Active surveillance reveals high prevalence of encephalitic listeriosis in small ruminants

This paper describes the prevalence of brain lesions in the Swiss fallen stock population of small ruminants. 3075 whole brains (75% sheep, 25% goats) were collected as part of a year-long active survey of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) in small ruminants conducted by the Swiss authorities between July 2004 and July 2005. All fallen stock brains were systematically examined by histopathology to obtain reliable data on histologically identifiable brain lesions. Lesions were found in an unexpectedly high number of animals (8.1% of all examined brains). A wide spectrum of diseases was detected showing that this approach provides an excellent opportunity to screen for the prevalence of neurological diseases. Encephalitic listeriosis was by far the most frequent cause of CNS lesions in both species and its prevalence was unexpectedly high when compared to notified confirmed cases. In conclusion, the prevalence of listeriosis as estimated by passive surveillance based on the notification of clinical suspects has been underestimated in the past.

What Does the Market Learn from Stock Offering Revisions?

We examine the disclosure of size revisions of seasoned stock offerings to see what information revisions impart to investros. Revisions could deliver firm-originated infoirmation, which discloses something managers know about the firm. Alternatively, they could disseminate market-originated information, which is information market participants have but which is not conveyed until trading takes place. Our results reject the notion that revisions reveal firm-originated news. Instead, the results are consistent with the market-originated news hypothesis and suggest a mechanism that investros and underwriters use to learn about the demand for an offering.