A glimpse into the future composition of marine phytoplankton communities

It is expected that climate change will have significant impacts on ecosystems. Most model projections agree that the ocean will experience stronger stratification and less nutrient supply from deep waters. These changes will likely affect marine phytoplankton communities and will thus impact on the higher trophic levels of the oceanic food web. The potential consequences of future climate change on marine microbial communities can be investigated and predicted only with the help of mathematical models. Here we present the application of a model that describes aggregate properties of marine phytoplankton communities and captures the effects of a changing environment on their composition and adaptive capacity. Specifically, the model describes the phytoplankton community in terms of total biomass, mean cell size, and functional diversity. The model is applied to two contrasting regions of the Atlantic Ocean (tropical and temperate) and is tested under two emission scenarios: SRES A2 or “business as usual” and SRES B1 or “local utopia.” We find that all three macroecological properties will decline during the next century in both regions, although this effect will be more pronounced in the temperate region. Being consistent with previous model predictions, our results show that a simple trait-based modeling framework represents a valuable tool for investigating how phytoplankton communities may reorganize under a changing climate.

Chromium uptake and adsorption in marine phytoplankton - Implications for the marine chromium cycle

Using the radioisotope 51Cr, we investigated the controls of cellular Cr accumulation in an array of marine phytoplankton grown in environmentally relevant Cr concentrations (1–10 nM). Given the affinity of Cr(III) for amorphous Fe-hydroxide mineral surfaces, and the formation of these mineral phases on the outside of phytoplankton cells, extracellular Cr was monitored in a model diatom species (Thalassiosira weissflogii) as extracellular Fe concentrations varied. Extracellular Cr in T. weissflogii increased with increasing extracellular Fe, demonstrating that Cr may be removed from seawater via extracellular adsorption to phytoplankton. Short-term Cr(VI) and Cr(III) uptake experiments performed with T. weissflogii demonstrated that Cr(III) was the primary oxidation state adsorbing to cells and being internalized by them. Cellular Cr:C ratios (<0.5 μmol Cr mol C−1) of the eight phytoplankton species surveyed were significantly lower than previously reported Cr:C ratios in marine particles with a high biogenic component (10–300 μmol Cr mol C−1). This indicates that Cr(III) likely accumulates in marine particles due to uptake and/or adsorption. Mass balance calculations demonstrate that surface water Cr deficits can be explained via loss of Cr(III) to exported particles, thereby providing a mechanism to account for the nutrient depth profile for Cr in modern seawater. Given the large fractionation of stable Cr isotopes during Cr(VI) reduction, Cr(III) associated with exported organic carbon is likely enriched in lighter isotopes. Most sedimentary Cr isotope studies have thus far neglected internal fractionating processes in the marine Cr cycle, but our data indicate that loss of Cr to exported particles may be traced in the sedimentary d53Cr record.

Climate-induced interannual variability of marine primary and export production in three global coupled climate carbon cycle models

Fully coupled climate carbon cycle models are sophisticated tools that are used to predict future climate change and its impact on the land and ocean carbon cycles. These models should be able to adequately represent natural variability, requiring model validation by observations. The present study focuses on the ocean carbon cycle component, in particular the spatial and temporal variability in net primary productivity (PP) and export production (EP) of particulate organic carbon (POC). Results from three coupled climate carbon cycle models (IPSL, MPIM, NCAR) are compared with observation-based estimates derived from satellite measurements of ocean colour and results from inverse modelling (data assimilation). Satellite observations of ocean colour have shown that temporal variability of PP on the global scale is largely dominated by the permanently stratified, low-latitude ocean (Behrenfeld et al., 2006) with stronger stratification (higher sea surface temperature; SST) being associated with negative PP anomalies. Results from all three coupled models confirm the role of the low-latitude, permanently stratified ocean for anomalies in globally integrated PP, but only one model (IPSL) also reproduces the inverse relationship between stratification (SST) and PP. An adequate representation of iron and macronutrient co-limitation of phytoplankton growth in the tropical ocean has shown to be the crucial mechanism determining the capability of the models to reproduce observed interactions between climate and PP.

Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity

With the emergence of decadal predictability simulations, research toward forecasting variations of the climate system now covers a large range of timescales. However, assessment of the capacity to predict natural variations of relevant biogeochemical variables like carbon fluxes, pH, or marine primary productivity remains unexplored. Among these, the net primary productivity (NPP) is of particular relevance in a forecasting perspective. Indeed, in regions like the tropical Pacific (30°N–30°S), NPP exhibits natural fluctuations at interannual to decadal timescales that have large impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. Here, we investigate predictions of NPP variations over the last decades (i.e., from 1997 to 2011) with an Earth system model within the tropical Pacific. Results suggest a predictive skill for NPP of 3 y, which is higher than that of sea surface temperature (1 y). We attribute the higher predictability of NPP to the poleward advection of nutrient anomalies (nitrate and iron), which sustain fluctuations in phytoplankton productivity over several years. These results open previously unidentified perspectives to the development of science-based management approaches to marine resources relying on integrated physical-biogeochemical forecasting systems.