Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213) and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959). For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

Determination of the molecular subtypes of diffuse large B-cell lymphomas using immunohistochemistry: a case series from the Inselspital, Bern, and a critical appraisal of this determination in Switzerland

The two major subtypes of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) (germinal centre B-cell - like (GCB-DLBCL) and activated B-cell - like (ABC-DLBCL)) are defined by means of gene expression profiling (GEP). Patients with GCB-DLBCL survive longer with the current standard regimen R-CHOP than patients with ABC-DLBCL. As GEP is not part of the current routine diagnostic work-up, efforts have been made to find a substitute than involves immunohistochemistry (IHC). Various algorithms achieved this with 80-90% accuracy. However, conflicting results on the appropriateness of IHC have been reported. Because it is likely that the molecular subtypes will play a role in future clinical practice, we assessed the determination of the molecular DLBCL subtypes by means of IHC at our University Hospital, and some aspects of this determination elsewhere in Switzerland. The most frequently used Hans algorithm includes three antibodies (against CD10, bcl-6 and MUM1). From records of the routine diagnostic work-up, we identified 51 of 172 (29.7%) newly diagnosed and treated DLBCL cases from 2005 until 2010 with an assigned DLBCL subtype. DLBCL subtype information was expanded by means of tissue microarray analysis. The outcome for patients with the GCB subtype was significantly better compared with those with the non-GC subtype, independent of the age-adjusted International Prognostic Index. We found a lack of standardisation in the subtype determination by means of IHC in Switzerland and significant problems of reproducibility. We conclude that the Hans algorithm performs well in our hands and that awareness of this important matter is increasing. However, outside clinical trials, vigorous efforts to standardise IHC determination are needed as DLBCL subtype-specific therapies emerge.

Cosmogenic production rates and recoil loss effects in micrometeorites and interplanetary dust particles

We present a purely physical model to determine cosmogenic production rates for noble gases and radionuclides in micrometeorites (MMs) and interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) by solar cosmic-rays (SCR) and galactic cosmic-rays (GCR) fully considering recoil loss effects. Our model is based on various nuclear model codes to calculate recoil cross sections, recoil ranges, and finally the percentages of the cosmogenic nuclides that are lost as a function of grain size, chemical composition of the grain, and the spectral distribution of the projectiles. The main advantage of our new model compared with earlier approaches is that we consider the entire SCR particle spectrum up to 240 MeV and not only single energy points. Recoil losses for GCR-produced nuclides are assumed to be equal to recoil losses for SCR-produced nuclides. Combining the model predictions with Poynting-Robertson orbital lifetimes, we calculate cosmic-ray exposure ages for recently studied MMs, cosmic spherules, and IDPs. The ages for MMs and the cosmic-spherule are in the range <2.2–233 Ma, which corresponds, according to the Poynting-Robertson drag, to orbital distances in the range 4.0–34 AU. For two IDPs, we determine exposure ages of longer than 900 Ma, which corresponds to orbital distances larger than 150 AU. The orbital distance in the range 4–6 AU for one MM and the cosmic spherule indicate an origin either in the asteroid belt or release from comets coming either from the Kuiper Belt or the Oort Cloud. Three of the studied MMs have orbital distances in the range 23–34 AU, clearly indicating a cometary origin, either from short-period comets from the Kuiper Belt or from the Oort Cloud. The two IDPs have orbital distances of more than 150 AU, indicating an origin from Oort Cloud comets.

Improved luminosity determination in pp collisions at sqrts = 7 TeV using the ATLAS detector at the LHC

The luminosity calibration for the ATLAS detector at the LHC during pp collisions at root s = 7 TeV in 2010 and 2011 is presented. Evaluation of the luminosity scale is performed using several luminosity-sensitive detectors, and comparisons are made of the long-term stability and accuracy of this calibration applied to the pp collisions at root s = 7 TeV. A luminosity uncertainty of delta L/L = +/- 3.5 % is obtained for the 47 pb(-1) of data delivered to ATLAS in 2010, and an uncertainty of delta L/L = +/- 1.8 % is obtained for the 5.5 fb(-1) delivered in 2011.

Mechanism of action of tin-containing fluoride solutions as anti-erosive agents in dentine - an in vitro tin-uptake, tissue loss, and scanning electron microscopy study

Solutions containing tin and fluoride exhibit remarkable anti-erosive properties with tin ions as a major agent. To elucidate its mechanism of action in dentine, the tin uptake on and in the tissue was investigated and related to histological findings and substance loss. Samples were treated twice daily, each treatment lasting for 2 min, with fluoride solutions [pH 4.5; 1,500 parts per million (p.p.m.) F] containing 2,100, 1,400, or 400 p.p.m. Sn as SnCl(2). In experiments 1 and 2, samples were eroded with citric acid (pH 2.3) six times each day, each treatment lasting for 5 min; in experiment 2, the demineralized organic matrix was continuously digested by collagenase; in experiment 3, no erosive challenges were performed. Sample surfaces and cross-sections were investigated using energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy, and profilometry. Surface retention of tin was found in almost all treatment groups and was highest in experiment 2. On cross-sections, tin was retained within the organic matrix; in mineralized areas, tin was found mainly within a depth of 10 mum. Test solutions inhibited substance loss significantly; in experiment 2, the effect was dose-dependent. Erosion inhibition seemed to depend mainly on the incorporation of tin in the mineralized dentine when the organic portion was preserved, but on surface precipitation when the organic portion was continuously digested.