31 resultados para Longitudinal dispersion model

em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça


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Acute stress reactions (ASR) and postpartum depressive symptoms (PDS) are frequent after childbirth. The present study addresses the change and overlap of ASR and PDS from the 1- to 3-week postpartum and examines the interplay of caregiver support and subjective birth experience with regard to the development of ASR/PDS within a longitudinal path model.

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Illegitimate tasks are a relatively new stressor concept, referring to tasks that an employee cannot appropriately expect to carry out. This study tested the hypothesis that illegitimate tasks predicted recovery, mediated by feelings of resentment. The hypothesis was confirmed in a longitudinal study with three waves of measurement.

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BACKGROUND: Particulate matter <10 mum (PM(10)) from fossil fuel combustion is associated with an increased prevalence of respiratory symptoms in children and adolescents. However, the effect of PM(10) on respiratory symptoms in young children is unclear. METHODS: The association between primary PM(10) (particles directly emitted from local sources) and the prevalence and incidence of respiratory symptoms was studied in a random sample cohort of 4400 Leicestershire children aged 1-5 years surveyed in 1998 and again in 2001. Annual exposure to primary PM(10) was calculated for the home address using the Airviro dispersion model and adjusted odds ratios (ORS) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each microg/m(3) increase. RESULTS: Exposure to primary PM(10) was associated with the prevalence of cough without a cold in both 1998 and 2001, with adjusted ORs of 1.21 (1.07 to 1.38) and 1.56 (1.32 to 1.84) respectively. For night time cough the ORs were 1.06 (0.94 to 1.19) and 1.25 (1.06 to 1.47), and for current wheeze 0.99 (0.88 to 1.12) and 1.28 (1.04 to 1.58), respectively. There was also an association between primary PM(10) and new onset symptoms. The ORs for incident symptoms were 1.62 (1.31 to 2.00) for cough without a cold and 1.42 (1.02 to 1.97) for wheeze. CONCLUSION: In young children there was a consistent association between locally generated primary PM(10) and the prevalence and incidence of cough without a cold and the incidence of wheeze which was independent of potential confounders.

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Groundwater age is a key aspect of production well vulnerability. Public drinking water supply wells typically have long screens and are expected to produce a mixture of groundwater ages. The groundwater age distributions of seven production wells of the Holten well field (Netherlands) were estimated from tritium-helium (3H/3He), krypton-85 (85Kr), and argon-39 (39Ar), using a new application of a discrete age distribution model and existing mathematical models, by minimizing the uncertainty-weighted squared differences of modeled and measured tracer concentrations. The observed tracer concentrations fitted well to a 4-bin discrete age distribution model or a dispersion model with a fraction of old groundwater. Our results show that more than 75 of the water pumped by four shallow production wells has a groundwater age of less than 20 years and these wells are very vulnerable to recent surface contamination. More than 50 of the water pumped by three deep production wells is older than 60 years. 3H/3He samples from short screened monitoring wells surrounding the well field constrained the age stratification in the aquifer. The discrepancy between the age stratification with depth and the groundwater age distribution of the production wells showed that the well field preferentially pumps from the shallow part of the aquifer. The discrete groundwater age distribution model appears to be a suitable approach in settings where the shape of the age distribution cannot be assumed to follow a simple mathematical model, such as a production well field where wells compete for capture area.

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INTRODUCTION The high risk of cardiovascular events in smokers requires adequate control of other cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) to curtail atherosclerosis progression. However, it is unclear which CVRFs have the most influence on atherosclerosis progression in smokers. METHODS In 260 smokers aged 40-70 included in a smoking cessation trial, we analyzed the association between traditional CVRFs, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), smoking cessation and 3-year progression of carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT, assessed by repeated ultrasound measurements) in a longitudinal multivariate model. RESULTS Participants (mean age 52 years, 47% women) had a mean smoking duration of 32 years with a median daily consumption of 20 cigarettes. Baseline CIMT was 1185 μm (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1082-1287) and increased by 93 μm (95% CI: 25-161) and 108 μm (95% CI: 33-183) after 1 and 3 years, respectively. Age, male sex, daily cigarette consumption, systolic blood pressure (SBP), but neither low-density lipoprotein cholesterol nor hs-CRP, were independently associated with baseline CIMT (all P ≤ .05). Baseline SBP, but neither low-density lipoprotein cholesterol nor hs-CRP, was associated with 3-year atherosclerosis progression (P = .01 at 3 years). The higher the SBP at baseline, the steeper was the CIMT increase over 3-year follow-up. We found an increase of 26 μm per each 10-mmHg raise in SBP at 1 year and an increase of 39 μm per each 10 mmHg raise in SBP at 3 years. Due to insufficient statistical power, we could not exclude an effect of smoking abstinence on CIMT progression. CONCLUSION Control of blood pressure may be an important factor to limit atherosclerosis progression in smokers, besides support for smoking cessation. IMPLICATIONS Among 260 smokers aged 40-70 years with a mean smoking duration of 32 years, baseline SBP was associated with atherosclerosis progression over 3 years, as measured by CIMT (P = .01 at 3 years), independently of smoking variables and other CVRFs. The higher the SBP at baseline, the steeper was the CIMT increase over 3-year follow-up. Our findings emphasize the importance of focusing not only on smoking cessation among smokers, but to simultaneously control other CVRFs, particularly blood pressure, in order to prevent future cardiovascular disease.

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BACKGROUND CONTEXT In canine intervertebral disc (IVD) extrusion, a spontaneous animal model of spinal cord injury, hemorrhage is a consistent finding. In rodent models, hemorrhage might be involved in secondary tissue destruction by biochemical mechanisms. PURPOSE This study aimed to investigate a causal association between the extents of intramedullary, subdural and epidural hemorrhage and the severity of spinal cord damage following IVD extrusion in dogs. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING A retrospective study using histologic spinal cord sections from 83 dogs euthanized following IVD extrusion was carried out. METHODS The degree of hemorrhage (intramedullary, subdural, epidural), the degree of spinal cord damage in the epicenter (white and gray matter), and the longitudinal extent of myelomalacia were graded. Associations between the extent of hemorrhage and the degree of spinal cord damage were evaluated statistically. RESULTS Intramedullary and subdural hemorrhages were significantly associated with the degree of white (p<.001/ p=.004) and gray (both p<.001) matter damage, and with the longitudinal extension of myelomalacia (p<.001/p=.005). Intriguingly, accumulation of hemorrhagic cord debris inside or dorsal to a distended and ruptured central canal in segments distant to the epicenter of the lesion was observed exhibiting a wave-like pattern on longitudinal assessment. The occurrence of this debris accumulation was associated with high degrees of tissue destruction (all p<.001). CONCLUSIONS Tissue liquefaction and increased intramedullary pressure associated with hemorrhage are involved in the progression of spinal cord destruction in a canine model of spinal cord injury and ascending or descending myelomalacia. Functional and dynamic studies are needed to investigate this concept further.

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Congenital peripheral nerve hyperexcitability (PNH) is usually associated with impaired function of voltage-gated K(+) channels (VGKCs) in neuromyotonia and demyelination in peripheral neuropathies. Schwartz-Jampel syndrome (SJS) is a form of PNH that is due to hypomorphic mutations of perlecan, the major proteoglycan of basement membranes. Schwann cell basement membrane and its cell receptors are critical for the myelination and organization of the nodes of Ranvier. We therefore studied a mouse model of SJS to determine whether a role for perlecan in these functions could account for PNH when perlecan is lacking. We revealed a role for perlecan in the longitudinal elongation and organization of myelinating Schwann cells because perlecan-deficient mice had shorter internodes, more numerous Schmidt-Lanterman incisures, and increased amounts of internodal fast VGKCs. Perlecan-deficient mice did not display demyelination events along the nerve trunk but developed dysmyelination of the preterminal segment associated with denervation processes at the neuromuscular junction. Investigating the excitability properties of the peripheral nerve suggested a persistent axonal depolarization during nerve firing in vitro, most likely due to defective K(+) homeostasis, and excluded the nerve trunk as the original site for PNH. Altogether, our data shed light on perlecan function by revealing critical roles in Schwann cell physiology and suggest that PNH in SJS originates distally from synergistic actions of peripheral nerve and neuromuscular junction changes.

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BACKGROUND: Chronic extrinsic denervation induced by small bowel transplantation (SBT) results in adrenergic hypersensitivity in rat ileum. This study evaluated the role of neuronal and/or muscular beta1-, beta2-, and beta3-adrenoceptor (AR) mechanisms on contractility. METHODS: Ileal longitudinal muscle strips from Lewis rats (n = 6 rats per group, 8 strips per rat): naive controls (NC), 4 months after sham operation (SC) or after syngeneic orthotopic SBT were studied in vitro. Spontaneous contractile activity and dose responses (10(-8)-10(-4) mol) to isoprenaline (IP), a nonspecific beta-AR agonist were studied with or without selective antagonists (10(-5) mol), for beta1- (atenolol), beta2- (ICI 118551), or beta3- (SR 59230A) AR subtypes in the presence or absence of tetrodotoxin (TTX; 10(-6) mol; nerve blocker). RESULTS: pEC50 (neg log of EC50, which is the concentration where 50% of inhibition was observed) of IP was 7.2 +/- 0.2 (mean value +/- SEM) in SBT vs 6.3 +/- 0.1 in SC and 6.3 +/- 0.2 in NC (both P < .05 vs SBT), reflecting adrenergic hypersensitivity. Beta1- and beta2-AR blockade induced a TTX-sensitive right shift of the curve only in SBT and normalized pEC50 values from 7.2 +/- 0.2 to 6.4 +/- 0.1 and 7.2 +/- 0.2 to 6.6 +/- 0.1, respectively (P < .05). Beta3-AR blockade shifted the curve independent of the presence of TTX to the right in all groups (all P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: In rat ileum, adrenergic inhibition of contractility was dependent on muscular beta3-AR pathways, whereas posttransplant hypersensitivity was due to upregulated neuronal beta1- and beta2-AR mechanisms that were inactive before SBT.

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BACKGROUND: Not all clinical trials are published, which may distort the evidence that is available in the literature. We studied the publication rate of a cohort of clinical trials and identified factors associated with publication and nonpublication of results. METHODS: We analysed the protocols of randomized clinical trials of drug interventions submitted to the research ethics committee of University Hospital (Inselspital) Bern, Switzerland from 1988 to 1998. We identified full articles published up to 2006 by searching the Cochrane CENTRAL database (issue 02/2006) and by contacting investigators. We analyzed factors associated with the publication of trials using descriptive statistics and logistic regression models. RESULTS: 451 study protocols and 375 corresponding articles were analyzed. 233 protocols resulted in at least one publication, a publication rate of 52%. A total of 366 (81%) trials were commercially funded, 47 (10%) had non-commercial funding. 346 trials (77%) were multi-centre studies and 272 of these (79%) were international collaborations. In the adjusted logistic regression model non-commercial funding (Odds Ratio [OR] 2.42, 95% CI 1.14-5.17), multi-centre status (OR 2.09, 95% CI 1.03-4.24), international collaboration (OR 1.87, 95% CI 0.99-3.55) and a sample size above the median of 236 participants (OR 2.04, 95% CI 1.23-3.39) were associated with full publication. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of applications to an ethics committee in Switzerland, only about half of clinical drug trials were published. Large multi-centre trials with non-commercial funding were more likely to be published than other trials, but most trials were funded by industry.

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Among trauma-exposed individuals, severity of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms is strongly correlated with anger. The authors used 2 longitudinal data sets with 282 and 218 crime victims, respectively, to investigate the temporal sequence of anger and PTSD symptoms following the assault. Cross-lagged regression analyses indicated that PTSD symptoms predicted subsequent level of anger, but that anger did not predict subsequent PTSD symptoms. Testing alternative models (common factor model, unmeasured 3rd variable model) that might account for spuriousness of the relation strengthened confidence in the results of the cross-lagged analyses. Further analyses suggested that rumination mediates the effect of PTSD symptoms on anger.

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BACKGROUND: Depressive symptoms in children are associated with social skills deficits and problems with peers. We propose a model which suggests different mechanisms for the impact of deficits in self-oriented social skills (assertiveness and social participation) and other-oriented social skills (pro-social, cooperative and non-aggressive behaviors) on children's depressive symptoms. We hypothesized that deficits in self-oriented social skills have a direct impact on children's depressive symptoms because these children have non-rewarding interactions with peers, whereas the impact of deficits in other-oriented social skills on depressive symptoms is mediated through negative reactions from peers such as peer victimization. METHOD: 378 kindergarten children (163 girls) participated at two assessments (Age at T1: M = 5.8, T2: M = 7.4). Teachers completed questionnaires on children's social skills at T1. Teacher reports on peer victimization and depressive symptoms were assessed at both assessment points. RESULTS: Our study partially confirmed the suggested conceptual model. Deficits in self-oriented social skills significantly predicted depressive symptoms, whereas deficits in other-oriented social skills were more strongly associated with peer victimization. Longitudinal associations between other-oriented social skills and depressive symptoms were mediated through peer victimization. CONCLUSION: The study emphasizes the role of deficits in self-oriented social skills and peer victimization for the development of internalizing disorders.

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We examined the relation between low self-esteem and depression using longitudinal data from a sample of 674 Mexican-origin early adolescents who were assessed at age 10 and 12 years. Results supported the vulnerability model, which states that low self-esteem is a prospective risk factor for depression. Moreover, results suggested that the vulnerability effect of low self-esteem is driven, for the most part, by general evaluations of worth (i.e., global self-esteem), rather than by domain-specific evaluations of academic competence, physical appearance, and competence in peer relationships. The only domain-specific self-evaluation that showed a prospective effect on depression was honesty-trustworthiness. The vulnerability effect of low self-esteem held for male and female adolescents, for adolescents born in the United States versus Mexico, and across different levels of pubertal status. Finally, the vulnerability effect held when we controlled for several theoretically relevant 3rd variables (i.e., social support, maternal depression, stressful events, and relational victimization) and for interactive effects between self-esteem and the 3rd variables. The present study contributes to an emerging understanding of the link between self-esteem and depression and provides much needed data on the antecedents of depression in ethnic minority populations

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Low self-esteem and depression are strongly related, but there is not yet consistent evidence on the nature of the relation. Whereas the vulnerability model states that low self-esteem contributes to depression, the scar model states that depression erodes self-esteem. Furthermore, it is unknown whether the models are specific for depression or whether they are also valid for anxiety. We evaluated the vulnerability and scar models of low self-esteem and depression, and low self-esteem and anxiety, by meta-analyzing the available longitudinal data (covering 77 studies on depression and 18 studies on anxiety). The mean age of the samples ranged from childhood to old age. In the analyses, we used a random-effects model and examined prospective effects between the variables, controlling for prior levels of the predicted variables. For depression, the findings supported the vulnerability model: The effect of self-esteem on depression (β = -.16) was significantly stronger than the effect of depression on self-esteem (β = -.08). In contrast, the effects between low self-esteem and anxiety were relatively balanced: Self-esteem predicted anxiety with β = -.10, and anxiety predicted self-esteem with β = -.08. Moderator analyses were conducted for the effect of low self-esteem on depression; these suggested that the effect is not significantly influenced by gender, age, measures of self-esteem and depression, or time lag between assessments. If future research supports the hypothesized causality of the vulnerability effect of low self-esteem on depression, interventions aimed at increasing self-esteem might be useful in reducing the risk of depression.

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In this paper we address the issue of who is most likely to participate in further training, for what reasons and at what stage of the life course. Special emphasis is given to the impact of labour-market policies to encourage further education and a person's individual or cohort possibilities to participate in further education. We apply a Cox proportional hazard model to data from the West German Life History Study, separately for women and men, within and outside the firm. Younger cohorts show not only higher proportions of participation in further education and training at early stages of the life course, they also continue to participate in higher numbers during later stages of the life course. General labour-force participation reduces and tenure with the same firm increases the propensity to participate in further education and training. Contrary to expectations, in Germany labour-market segmentation has been enhanced rather than reduced by further education and training policies, since in the firm-specific labour-market segment, i.e. skilled jobs in large firms, and in the public sector both women and men had a higher probability of participation. Particularly favourable conditions for participation in further education outside the firm prevailed during the first years of the labour promotion act (Arbeitsförderungsgesetz) between 1969 and 1974, but women did not benefit to the same extent as men. Training policies are, therefore, in need of continuous assessment based on a goal-achievement evaluation to avoid any unintended effects of such policies.

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OBJECTIVE: Occupational low back pain (LBP) is considered to be the most expensive form of work disability, with the socioeconomic costs of persistent LBP exceeding the costs of acute and subacute LBP by far. This makes the early identification of patients at risk of developing persistent LBP essential, especially in working populations. The aim of the study was to evaluate both risk factors (for the development of persistent LBP) and protective factors (preventing the development of persistent LBP) in the same cohort. PARTICIPANTS: An inception cohort of 315 patients with acute to subacute or with recurrent LBP was recruited from 14 health practitioners (twelve general practitioners and two physiotherapists) across New Zealand. METHODS: Patients with persistent LBP at six-month follow-up were compared to patients with non-persistent LBP looking at occupational, psychological, biomedical and demographic/lifestyle predictors at baseline using multiple logistic regression analyses. All significant variables from the different domains were combined into a one predictor model. RESULTS: A final two-predictor model with an overall predictive value of 78% included social support at work (OR 0.67; 95%CI 0.45 to 0.99) and somatization (OR 1.08; 95%CI 1.01 to 1.15). CONCLUSIONS: Social support at work should be considered as a resource preventing the development of persistent LBP whereas somatization should be considered as a risk factor for the development of persistent LBP. Further studies are needed to determine if addressing these factors in workplace interventions for patients suffering from acute, subacute or recurrent LBP prevents subsequent development of persistent LBP.