Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: An EMIC Intercomparison

This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to 1) quantify the climate change commitment of different radiative forcing trajectories and 2) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible on human time scales. All commitment simulations follow the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to year 2300. Most EMICs simulate substantial surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is weakened temporarily and recovers to near-preindustrial values in most models for RCPs 2.6-6.0. The MOC weakening is more persistent for RCP8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions after 2300 results in slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. At year 3000 atmospheric CO2 is still at more than half its year-2300 level in all EMICs for RCPs 4.5-8.5. Surface air temperature remains constant or decreases slightly and thermosteric sea level rise continues for centuries after elimination of CO2 emissions in all EMICs. Restoration of atmospheric CO2 from RCP to preindustrial levels over 100-1000 years requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and does not result in the simultaneous return to preindustrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level response exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2.

Long-term trends in invertebrate–habitat relationships under protected and fished conditions

Few studies examine the long-term effects of changing predator size and abundance on the habitat associations of resident organisms despite that this knowledge is critical to understand the ecosystem effects of fishing. Marine reserves offer the opportunity to determine ecosystem-level effects of manipulated predator densities, while parallel monitoring of adjacent fished areas allows separating these effects from regional-scale change. Relationships between two measures of benthic habitat structure (reef architecture and topographic complexity) and key invertebrate species were followed over 17 years at fished and protected subtidal rocky reefs associated with two southern Australian marine reserves. Two commercially harvested species, the southern rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) and blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) were initially weakly associated with habitat structure across all fished and protected sites. The strength of association with habitat for both species increased markedly at protected sites 2 years after marine reserve declaration, and then gradually weakened over subsequent years. The increasing size of rock lobster within reserves apparently reduced their dependency on reef shelters as refuges from predation. Rising predation by fish and rock lobster in the reserves corresponded with weakening invertebrate–habitat relationships for H. rubra and sea urchins (Heliocidaris erythrogramma). These results emphasise that animal–habitat relationships are not necessarily stable through time and highlight the value of marine reserves as reference sites. Our work shows that fishery closures to enhance populations of commercially important and keystone species should be in areas with a range of habitat features to accommodate shifting ecological requirements with ontogenesis.

Long-term Responses of Mountain Ecosystems to Environmental Changes: Resilience, Adjustment, and Vulnerability

The steep environmental gradients of mountain ecosystems over short distances reflect large gradients of several climatic parameters and hence provide excellent possibilities for ecological research on the effects of environmental change. To gain a better understanding of the dynamics of abiotic and biotic parameters of mountain ecosystems, long-term records are required since permanent plots in mountain regions cover in the best case about 50 - 70 years. In order to extend investigations of ecological dynamics beyond these temporal limitations of permanent plots, paleoecological approaches can be used if the sampling resolution can be adapted to ecological research questions, e.g. a sample every 10 years. Paleoecological studies in mountain ecosystems can provide new ecological insights through the combination of different spatial and temporal scales. [f we thus improve our understanding of processes across both steep environmental gradients and different time scales, we may be able to better estimate ecosystem responses to current and future environmental change (Ammann et al. 1993; Lotter et al. 1997). The complexity of ecological interactions in mountain regions forces us to concentrate on a number of sub-systems - without losing sight of the wider context. Here, we summarize a few case studies on the effects of Holocene climate change and disturbance on the vegetation of the Western Alps. To categorize the main response modes of vegetation to climatic change and disturbance in the Alps we use three classes of ecological behaviour: "resilience", "adjustment", and "vulnerability", We assume a resilient (or elastic) behaviour if vegetation is able to recover to its former state, regaining important ecosystem characteristics, such as floristic composition, biodiversity, species abundances, and biomass (e.g. Küttel 1990; Aber and Melillo 199 1). Conversely, vegetation displacements may occur in response to climatic change and/or disturbance. In some cases, this may culminate in irreversible large-scale processes such as species and/or community extinctions. Such drastic developments indicate high ecosystem vulnerability (or inelasticity or instability, for detailed definitions see Küttel 1990; Aber and Melillo 199 1) to climatic change and/or disturbance. In this sense, the "vulnerability" (or instability) of an ecosystem is expressed by the degree of failure to recover to the original state before disturbance and/or climatic change. Between these two extremes (resilience vs. vulnerability), ecosystem adjustments to climatic change and/or disturbance may occur, including the appearance of new and/or the disappearance of old species. The term "adjustment" is hence used to indicate the response of vegetational communities, which adapted to new environmental conditions without losing their main character. For forest ecosystems, we assume vegetational adjustments (rather than vulnerability) if the dominant (or co-dominant) tree species are not outnumbered or replaced by formerly unimportant plant species or new invaders. Adaptation as a genetic process is not discussed here and will require additional pbylogeographical studies (that incorporate the analysis of ancient DNA) in order to fully understand the distributions of ecotypes.

Long-term effects of watershed management on surface runoff and sediment loss in the Ethiopian Highlands

Data on rainfall, runoff and sediment loss from different land use types have been collected by the Soil Conservation Research Programme in seven small catchments (73-673 hectares) throughout the Ethiopian Highlands since the early 1980s. Monitoring was carried out on a storm-to-storm basis for extended periods of 10-20 years, and the data are analysed here to assess long-term effects of changes. Soil and water conservation technologies were introduced in the early years in the catchments in view of their capacity to reduce runoff and sediment yield. Results indicate that rainfall did not substantially change over the observation periods. Land use changes and land degradation, however, altered runoff, as shown by the data from small test plots (30 m2), which were not altered by conservation measures during the monitoring periods. Sediment delivery from the catchments may have decreased due to soil and water conservation, while runoff rates did not change significantly. Extrapolation of the results in the highlands, however, showed that expansion of cultivated and grazing land induced by population growth may have increased the overall surface runoff. Watershed management in the catchments, finally, had beneficial effects on ecosystem services by reducing soil erosion, restoring soil fertility, enhancing agricultural production, and maintaining overall runoff to the benefit of lowland areas and neighbouring countries.

Interactions between short-term and long-term plasticity: shooting for a moving target

Far from being static transmission units, synapses are highly dynamical elements that change over multiple time scales depending on the history of the neural activity of both the pre- and postsynaptic neuron. Moreover, synaptic changes on different time scales interact: long-term plasticity (LTP) can modify the properties of short-term plasticity (STP) in the same synapse. Most existing theories of synaptic plasticity focus on only one of these time scales (either STP or LTP or late-LTP) and the theoretical principles underlying their interactions are thus largely unknown. Here we develop a normative model of synaptic plasticity that combines both STP and LTP and predicts specific patterns for their interactions. Recently, it has been proposed that STP arranges for the local postsynaptic membrane potential at a synapse to behave as an optimal estimator of the presynaptic membrane potential based on the incoming spikes. Here we generalize this approach by considering an optimal estimator of a non-linear function of the membrane potential and the long-term synaptic efficacy—which itself may be subject to change on a slower time scale. We find that an increase in the long-term synaptic efficacy necessitates changes in the dynamics of STP. More precisely, for a realistic non-linear function to be estimated, our model predicts that after the induction of LTP, causing long-term synaptic efficacy to increase, a depressing synapse should become even more depressing. That is, in a protocol using trains of presynaptic stimuli, as the initial EPSP becomes stronger due to LTP, subsequent EPSPs should become weakened and this weakening should be more pronounced with LTP. This form of redistribution of synaptic efficacies agrees well with electrophysiological data on synapses connecting layer 5 pyramidal neurons.

Long-term intraocular pressure changes in patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration treated with ranibizumab

BACKGROUND/AIMS To investigate the long-term effects of multiple intravitreal injections (IVTs) of ranibizumab (Lucentis) on intraocular pressure (IOP) in patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration. METHODS In 320 eyes, IOP measurements were performed at baseline prior to injection and compared with IOP measurements of the last visit. Correlations between mean IOP change and total number of IVTs, visual acuity or patient age were tested. RESULTS The mean IOP increase was 0.8 ± 3.1 mm Hg (p < 0.0001). Seven eyes showed final IOP values between 22 and 25 mm Hg. The mean follow-up was 22.7 ± 14.1 months. No further correlations between IOP change and number of IVTs, visual acuity or patient age have been found. CONCLUSIONS This study demonstrated a statistically significant IOP increase in patients treated with repeated injections of ranibizumab. However, IOP increase required no glaucoma treatment during the study. Therefore, repeated injections with ranibizumab can be considered safe with regard to long-term IOP changes in patients without ocular hypertension or glaucoma.

ABO histo-blood group antigen expression on the graft endothelium long term after ABO-compatible, non-identical heart transplantation

We recently reported a complete change in the endothelial ABO histo-blood group phenotype of a cardiac allograft long term after B to O mismatched transplantation. In the context of the current controversy on graft recolonization with recipient endothelial cells and its importance in the development of immunological unresponsiveness, we monitored the expression of endothelial ABH histo-blood group antigens of 10 ABO-compatible, non-identical cardiac allografts over an observation period of at least 30 months. ABH antigens as well as markers for endothelial cells, erythrocytes and thrombocytes were investigated retrospectively by immunohistochemistry using monoclonal antibodies on sections of formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded biopsies and were evaluated semi-quantitatively by microscopy. In contrast to our earlier finding of the change in the endothelial ABO histo-blood group phenotype long term after ABO- mismatched transplantation, we could not confirm this change in 10 compatible but non-identical cases.

Fluctuation analysis of lung function as a predictor of long-term response to beta2-agonists

The response to beta(2)-agonists differs between asthmatics and has been linked to subsequent adverse events, even death. Possible determinants include beta(2)-adrenoceptor genotype at position 16, lung function and airway hyperresponsiveness. Fluctuation analysis provides a simple parameter alpha measuring the complex correlation properties of day-to-day peak expiratory flow. The present study investigated whether alpha predicts clinical response to beta(2)-agonist treatment, taking into account other conventional predictors. Analysis was performed on previously published twice-daily peak expiratory flow measurements in 66 asthmatic adults over three 6-month randomised order treatment periods: placebo, salbutamol and salmeterol. Multiple linear regression was used to determine the association between alpha during the placebo period and response to treatment (change in the number of days with symptoms), taking into account other predictors namely beta(2)-adrenoceptor genotype, lung function and its variability, and airway hyperresponsiveness. The current authors found that alpha measured during the placebo period considerably improved the prediction of response to salmeterol treatment, taking into account genotype, lung function or its variability, or airway hyperresponsiveness. The present study provides further evidence that response to beta(2)-agonists is related to the time correlation properties of lung function in asthma. The current authors conclude that fluctuation analysis of lung function offers a novel predictor to identify patients who may respond well or poorly to treatment.

Long-term follow-up in patients with Lennox-Gastaut syndrome. Epileptological aspects, psychomotor development and social adaptation

In 1989/90 a follow-up was made possible on 72 of 78 patients who have been treated for the supposed or confirmed diagnosis of a Lennox-Gastaut-Syndrome at the university children hospital of Berne between 1964 and 1978. Nine patients were excluded of this study because the diagnosis was proved wrong retrospectively, leaving 63 cases. Of these, eleven patients (17.5%) have died. The remaining 52 (82.5%) were evaluated regarding their epilepsy, psychomotor development and social adaptation. The follow-up was good for 14.3%, intermediate for 23.8% and poor for 44.4%. Bad prognostic factors were found to be: first manifestation of epilepsy during the first year of life, occurrence of infantile spasms or hypsarrhythmia in the EEG and pathological neurological signs at the beginning of the disease. In the course of illness a change of seizure phenomenology was observed. The infantile spasms were seen only during the first three years of epilepsy. After the second year of disease psychomotor seizures became more and more frequent. Atypical absences, already seen at the beginning, were the most frequent form of seizure from the third year of epilepsy until the end of our observations. During the course of disease the frequency of generalized tonic and tonic-clonic seizures decreased little.

Long-term maternal imprinting of the specific B cell repertoire by maternal antibodies

Maternal antibodies protect newborns whilst they are immunologically immature. This study shows that maternal antibodies can also shape the B cell repertoire of the offspring long after the maternal antibodies themselves become undetectable. V(H)DJ(H) gene-targeted (VI10) mice expressing a heavy chain specific for vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) produce a 20-fold increased spontaneous titer of VSV-neutralizing antibodies. When transferred from mother to offspring, these antibodies prevented accumulation of Ag-specific transitional type 2 and marginal zone B cells with an activated phenotype and favored selection to the B cell follicles. This effect was B cell-intrinsic and lasted up to adulthood. The pups nursed by mothers producing specific antibodies developed higher endogenous antibody titers of this specificity which perpetuated the effects of specific B cell selection into the mature follicular compartment, presumably by blocking auto-Ag-dependent development of transitional type 2 B cells in the spleen. This repertoire change was functional, as following infection of adult mice with VSV, those pups that had received specific maternal antibodies as neonates had increased pre-immune titers and mounted strong early IgG neutralizing antibodies.

The role of cell death and myofibrillar damage in contractile dysfunction of long-term cultured adult cardiomyocytes exposed to doxorubicin

In failing hearts cardiomyocytes undergo alterations in cytoskeleton structure, contractility and viability. It is not known presently, how stress-induced changes of myofibrils correlate with markers for cell death and contractile function in cardiomyocytes. Therefore, we have studied the progression of contractile dysfunction, myofibrillar damage and cell death in cultured adult cardiomyocytes exposed to the cancer therapy doxorubicin. We demonstrate, that long-term cultured adult cardiomyocytes, a well-established model for the study of myofibrillar structure and effects of growth factors, can also be used to assess contractility and calcium handling. Adult rat ventricular myocytes (ARVM) were isolated and cultured for a total of 14 days in serum containing medium. The organization of calcium-handling proteins and myofibrillar structure in freshly isolated and in long-term cultured adult cardiomyocytes was studied by immunofluorescence and electron microscopy. Excitation contraction-coupling was analyzed by fura 2 and video edge detection in electrically paced cardiomyocytes forming a monolayer, and cell death and viability was measured by TUNEL assay, LDH release, MTT assay, and Western blot for LC3. Adult cardiomyocytes treated with Doxo showed apoptosis and necrosis only at supraclinical concentrations. Treated cells displayed merely alterations in cytoskeleton organization and integrity concomitant with contractile dysfunction and up-regulation of autophagosome formation, but no change in total sarcomeric protein content. We propose, that myofibrillar damage contributes to contractile dysfunction prior to cell death in adult cardiomyocytes exposed to clinically relevant concentrations of anthracyclines.

Chronic NSAID use and long-term decline of renal function in a prospective rheumatoid arthritis cohort study

OBJECTIVES Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) may cause kidney damage. This study assessed the impact of prolonged NSAID exposure on renal function in a large rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patient cohort. METHODS Renal function was prospectively followed between 1996 and 2007 in 4101 RA patients with multilevel mixed models for longitudinal data over a mean period of 3.2 years. Among the 2739 'NSAID users' were 1290 patients treated with cyclooxygenase type 2 selective NSAIDs, while 1362 subjects were 'NSAID naive'. Primary outcome was the estimated glomerular filtration rate according to the Cockroft-Gault formula (eGFRCG), and secondary the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula equations and serum creatinine concentrations. In sensitivity analyses, NSAID dosing effects were compared for patients with NSAID registration in ≤/>50%, ≤/>80% or ≤/>90% of assessments. FINDINGS In patients with baseline eGFRCG >30 mL/min, eGFRCG evolved without significant differences over time between 'NSAID users' (mean change in eGFRCG -0.87 mL/min/year, 95% CI -1.15 to -0.59) and 'NSAID naive' (-0.67 mL/min/year, 95% CI -1.26 to -0.09, p=0.63). In a multivariate Cox regression analysis adjusted for significant confounders age, sex, body mass index, arterial hypertension, heart disease and for other insignificant factors, NSAIDs were an independent predictor for accelerated renal function decline only in patients with advanced baseline renal impairment (eGFRCG <30 mL/min). Analyses with secondary outcomes and sensitivity analyses confirmed these results. CONCLUSIONS NSAIDs had no negative impact on renal function estimates but in patients with advanced renal impairment.