Short- and long-term mortality and causes of death in HIV/tuberculosis patients in Europe

Mortality of HIV/tuberculosis (TB) patients in Eastern Europe is high. Little is known about their causes of death. This study aimed to assess and compare mortality rates and cause of death in HIV/TB patients across Eastern Europe and Western Europe and Argentina (WEA) in an international cohort study. Mortality rates and causes of death were analysed by time from TB diagnosis (<3 months, 3-12 months or >12 months) in 1078 consecutive HIV/TB patients. Factors associated with TB-related death were examined in multivariate Poisson regression analysis. 347 patients died during 2625 person-years of follow-up. Mortality in Eastern Europe was three- to ninefold higher than in WEA. TB was the main cause of death in Eastern Europe in 80%, 66% and 61% of patients who died <3 months, 3-12 months or >12 months after TB diagnosis, compared to 50%, 0% and 15% in the same time periods in WEA (p<0.0001). In multivariate analysis, follow-up in WEA (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.12, 95% CI 0.04-0.35), standard TB-treatment (IRR 0.45, 95% CI 0.20-0.99) and antiretroviral therapy (IRR 0.32, 95% CI 0.14-0.77) were associated with reduced risk of TB-related death. Persistently higher mortality rates were observed in HIV/TB patients in Eastern Europe, and TB was the dominant cause of death at any time during follow-up. This has important implications for HIV/TB programmes aiming to optimise the management of HIV/TB patients and limit TB-associated mortality in this region.

Evolving biomarkers improve prediction of long-term mortality in patients with stable coronary artery disease: the BIO-VILCAD score.

OBJECTIVE Algorithms to predict the future long-term risk of patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) are rare. The VIenna and Ludwigshafen CAD (VILCAD) risk score was one of the first scores specifically tailored for this clinically important patient population. The aim of this study was to refine risk prediction in stable CAD creating a new prediction model encompassing various pathophysiological pathways. Therefore, we assessed the predictive power of 135 novel biomarkers for long-term mortality in patients with stable CAD. DESIGN, SETTING AND SUBJECTS We included 1275 patients with stable CAD from the LUdwigshafen RIsk and Cardiovascular health study with a median follow-up of 9.8 years to investigate whether the predictive power of the VILCAD score could be improved by the addition of novel biomarkers. Additional biomarkers were selected in a bootstrapping procedure based on Cox regression to determine the most informative predictors of mortality. RESULTS The final multivariable model encompassed nine clinical and biochemical markers: age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), heart rate, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, cystatin C, renin, 25OH-vitamin D3 and haemoglobin A1c. The extended VILCAD biomarker score achieved a significantly improved C-statistic (0.78 vs. 0.73; P = 0.035) and net reclassification index (14.9%; P < 0.001) compared to the original VILCAD score. Omitting LVEF, which might not be readily measureable in clinical practice, slightly reduced the accuracy of the new BIO-VILCAD score but still significantly improved risk classification (net reclassification improvement 12.5%; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION The VILCAD biomarker score based on routine parameters complemented by novel biomarkers outperforms previous risk algorithms and allows more accurate classification of patients with stable CAD, enabling physicians to choose more personalized treatment regimens for their patients.

Cause-Specific Long-Term Mortality in Survivors of Childhood Cancer in Switzerland: A Population Based Study.

Survivors of childhood cancer have a higher mortality than the general population. We describe cause-specific long-term mortality in a population-based cohort of childhood cancer survivors. We included all children diagnosed with cancer in Switzerland (1976-2007) at age 0-14 years, who survived ≥5 years after diagnosis and followed survivors until December 31, 2012. We obtained causes of death (COD) from the Swiss mortality statistics and used data from the Swiss general population to calculate age-, calendar year- and sex-standardized mortality ratios (SMR), and absolute excess risks (AER) for different COD, by Poisson regression. We included 3'965 survivors and 49'704 person years at risk. Of these, 246 (6.2%) died, which was 11 times higher than expected (SMR 11.0). Mortality was particularly high for diseases of the respiratory (SMR 14.8) and circulatory system (SMR 12.7), and for second cancers (SMR 11.6). The pattern of cause-specific mortality differed by primary cancer diagnosis, and changed with time since diagnosis. In the first 10 years after 5-year survival, 78.9% of excess deaths were caused by recurrence of the original cancer (AER 46.1). Twenty-five years after diagnosis, only 36.5% (AER 9.1) were caused by recurrence, 21.3% by second cancers (AER 5.3) and 33.3% by circulatory diseases (AER 8.3). Our study confirms an elevated mortality in survivors of childhood cancer for at least 30 years after diagnosis with an increased proportion of deaths caused by late toxicities of the treatment. The results underline the importance of clinical follow-up continuing years after the end of treatment for childhood cancer. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Quality of life 9 years after an intensive care unit stay: A long-term outcome study

The purpose of the study was to assess long-term mortality after an intensive care unit (ICU) stay and to test the hypotheses that (1) quality of life improves over time and (2) predictions of outcome made by caregivers during an ICU stay are reliable.

Anemia is associated with abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) size and decreased long-term survival after endovascular AAA repair

OBJECTIVE: Anemia is a common comorbid condition in various inflammatory states and an established predictor of mortality in patients with chronic heart failure, ischemic heart disease, and end-stage renal disease. The present study of patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) undergoing endovascular repair (EVAR) assessed the relationships between baseline hemoglobin concentration and AAA size, as well as anemia and long-term survival. METHODS: Between March 1994 and November 2006, 711 patients (65 women, mean age 75.8 +/- 7.8 years) underwent elective EVAR. Anemia was defined as a hemoglobin level <13 g/dL in men and <12 g/dL in women. Post-EVAR mean follow-up was 48.3 +/- 32.0 months. Association of hemoglobin level with AAA size was assessed with multiple linear regression. Mortality was determined with use of the internet-based Social Security Death Index and the electronic hospital record. Kaplan-Meier survival curves of anemic and nonanemic patient groups were compared by the log-rank method. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine the influence of anemia on vital status after EVAR. RESULTS: A total of 218/711 (30.7%) of AAA patients undergoing EVAR had anemia at baseline. After adjustment for various risk factors, hemoglobin level was inversely related to maximum AAA diameter (beta: - .144, 95%-CI: -1.482 - .322, P = .002). Post-EVAR survival was 65.5% at 5 years and 44.4% at 10 years. In long-term follow-up, survival was significantly lower in patients with anemia as compared to patients without anemia (P < .0001 by log-rank). Baseline hemoglobin levels were independently related to long-term mortality in multivariable Cox regression analysis adjusted for various risk factors (adjusted HR: 0.866, 95% CI: .783 to .958, P = .005). Within this model, statin use (adjusted HR: .517, 95% CI: .308 to .868, P = .013) was independently related to long-term survival, whereas baseline AAA diameter (adjusted HR: 1.022, 95% CI: 1.009 to 1.036, P = .001) was an independently associated with increased mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline hemoglobin concentration is independently associated with AAA size and reduced long-term survival following EVAR. Thus, the presence or absence of anemia offers a potential refinement of existing risk stratification instruments.

Impact of Clinical Presentation (Stable Angina Pectoris vs Unstable Angina Pectoris or Non-ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction vs ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction) on Long-Term Outcomes in Women Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Drug-Eluting Stents

The long-term risk associated with different coronary artery disease (CAD) presentations in women undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with drug-eluting stents (DES) is poorly characterized. We pooled patient-level data for women enrolled in 26 randomized clinical trials. Of 11,577 women included in the pooled database, 10,133 with known clinical presentation received a DES. Of them, 5,760 (57%) had stable angina pectoris (SAP), 3,594 (35%) had unstable angina pectoris (UAP) or non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), and 779 (8%) had ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) as clinical presentation. A stepwise increase in 3-year crude cumulative mortality was observed in the transition from SAP to STEMI (4.9% vs 6.1% vs 9.4%; p <0.01). Conversely, no differences in crude mortality rates were observed between 1 and 3 years across clinical presentations. After multivariable adjustment, STEMI was independently associated with greater risk of 3-year mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 3.45; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.99 to 5.98; p <0.01), whereas no differences were observed between UAP or NSTEMI and SAP (HR 0.99; 95% CI 0.73 to 1.34; p = 0.94). In women with ACS, use of new-generation DES was associated with reduced risk of major adverse cardiac events (HR 0.58; 95% CI 0.34 to 0.98). The magnitude and direction of the effect with new-generation DES was uniform between women with or without ACS (pinteraction = 0.66). In conclusion, in women across the clinical spectrum of CAD, STEMI was associated with a greater risk of long-term mortality. Conversely, the adjusted risk of mortality between UAP or NSTEMI and SAP was similar. New-generation DESs provide improved long-term clinical outcomes irrespective of the clinical presentation in women.

Stocking of captive-bred fish can cause long-term population decline and gene pool replacement: predictions from a population dynamics model incorporating density-dependent mortality

Releasing captive-bred fish into natural environments (stocking) is common in fisheries worldwide. Although stocking is believed to have a positive effect on fish abundance over the short term, little is known about the long-term consequences of recurrent stocking and its influence on natural populations. In fact, there are growing concerns that genetically maladapted captive-bred fish can eventually reduce the abundance of natural population. In this study, we develop a simple model to quantitatively investigate the condition under which recurrent stocking has long-term effects on the natural population. Using a population dynamics model that takes into account a density-dependent recruitment, a gene responsible for the fitness difference between wild and captive-bred fish, and hybridization between them, we show that there is little or no contribution of recurrent stocking to the stock enhancement without a replacement of the wild gene pool by the captive-bred gene pool. The model further predicted that stocking of an intermediate level causes a reduction, rather than enhancement, of population size over the long term. The population decline due to stocking was attributed to the fitness disadvantage of captive-bred fish and strong overcompensation at recruitment stage. These results suggest that it would be difficult to simultaneously attain population size recovery and conservation of the local gene pool when captive-bred fish have fitness disadvantage in the wild, although caution is needed when applying the predictions from the simplified model to a specific species or population.

QTc interval and resting heart rate as long-term predictors of mortality in type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus: a 23-year follow-up

We evaluated the association of QT interval corrected for heart rate (QT(c)) and resting heart rate (rHR) with mortality (all-causes, cardiovascular, cardiac, and ischaemic heart disease) in subjects with type 1 and type 2 diabetes.

Apolipoprotein B as a long-term predictor of mortality in type 1 diabetes mellitus: a 15-year follow up

To evaluate the association of apolipoprotein B (apo B) with mortality due to all causes, to cardiac disease and to ischaemic heart disease (IHD) in subjects with type 1 diabetes mellitus.

Long-term cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality in women and men with type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus: a 30-year follow-up in Switzerland

While studies from other countries have shown an excess mortality in diabetic individuals when compared with the general population, comparable long-term data is not available for Switzerland.

Multiple major morbidities and increased mortality during long-term follow-up after recovery from thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura

Recovery from acute episodes of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP) appears complete except for minor cognitive abnormalities and risk for relapse. The Oklahoma TTP-HUS (hemolytic uremic syndrome) Registry enrolled 70 consecutive patients from 1995 to 2011 with ADAMTS13 activity <10% at their initial episode; 57 survived, with follow-up through 2012. The prevalence of body mass index (BMI), glomerular filtration rate (GFR), urine albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR), hypertension, major depression, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), and risk of death were compared with expected values based on the US reference population. At initial diagnosis, 57 survivors had a median age of 39 years; 45 (79%) were women; 21 (37%) were black; BMI and prevalence of SLE (7%) were greater (P < .001) than expected; prevalence of hypertension (19%; P = .463) was not different. GFR (P = .397) and ACR (P = .793) were not different from expected values. In 2011-2012, prevalence of hypertension (40% vs 23%; P = .013) and major depression (19% vs 6%; P = .005) was greater than expected values. Eleven patients (19%) have died, a proportion greater than expected compared with US and Oklahoma reference populations (P < .05). TTP survivors may have greater risk for poor health and premature death.

Copper, ceruloplasmin, and long-term cardiovascular and total mortality (the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health Study)

BACKGROUND Copper and its main transport protein ceruloplasmin have been suggested to promote the development of atherosclerosis. Most of the data come from experimental and animal model studies. Copper and mortality have not been simultaneously evaluated in patients undergoing coronary angiography. METHODS AND RESULTS We examined whether serum copper and ceruloplasmin concentrations are associated with angiographic coronary artery disease (CAD) and mortality from all causes and cardiovascular causes in 3253 participants of the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health Study. Age and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for death from any cause were 2.23 (95% CI, 1.85-2.68) for copper and 2.63 (95% CI, 2.17-3.20) for ceruloplasmin when we compared the highest with the lowest quartiles. Corresponding hazard ratios (HR) for death from cardiovascular causes were 2.58 (95% CI, 2.05-3.25) and 3.02 (95% CI, 2.36-3.86), respectively. Further adjustments for various risk factors and clinical variables considerably attenuated these associations, which, however, were still statistically significant and the results remained consistent across subgroups. CONCLUSIONS The elevated concentrations of both copper and ceruloplasmin are independently associated with increased risk of mortality from all causes and from cardiovascular causes.

Prolonged inflammation following critical illness may impair long-term survival: a hypothesis with potential therapeutic implications

Despite successful intensive care a substantial portion of critically ill patients dies after discharge from the intensive care unit or hospital. Observational studies investigating long-term survival of critically ill patients reported that most deaths occur during the first months or year after discharge. Only limited data on the causes of impaired quality of life and post-intensive care unit deaths exist in the current literature. In this manuscript we hypothesize that the acute inflammatory response which characteristically accompanies critical illness is ensued by a prolonged imbalance or activation of the immune system. Such a chronic low-grade inflammatory response to critical illness may be sub-clinical and persist for a variable period of time after discharge from the intensive care unit and hospital. Chronic inflammation is a well-recognized risk factor for long-term morbidity and mortality, particularly from cardiovascular causes, and may thus partly contribute to the impaired quality of life as well as increased morbidity and mortality following intensive care unit and hospital discharge of critically ill patients. Assuming that critical illness is indeed followed by a prolonged inflammatory response, important implications for treatment would arise. An interesting and potentially beneficial therapy could be the administration of immune-modulating drugs during the time after intensive care unit or hospital discharge until chronic inflammation has subsided. Statins are well-investigated and effective drugs to attenuate chronic inflammation and could potentially also improve long-term outcome of critically ill patients after intensive care unit or hospital discharge. Future studies evaluating the course of inflammation during and after critical illness as well as its response to statin therapy are required.

Long-term comparison of everolimus-eluting and sirolimus-eluting stents for coronary revascularization

Objectives This study sought to compare the unrestricted use of everolimus-eluting stents (EES) with sirolimus-eluting stents (SES) in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. Background It is unclear whether there are differences in safety and efficacy between EES and SES during long-term follow-up. Methods Using propensity score matching, clinical outcome was compared among 1,342 propensity score–matched pairs of patients treated with EES and SES. The primary outcome was a composite of death, MI, and target vessel revascularization. Results The median follow-up was 1.5 years with a maximum of 3 years. The primary outcome occurred in 14.9% of EES- and 18.0% of SES-treated patients up to 3 years (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68 to 1.00, p = 0.056). All-cause mortality (6.0% vs. 6.5%, HR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.68 to 1.25, p = 0.59) was similar, risks of myocardial infarction (MI) (3.3% vs. 5.0%, HR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.42 to 0.92, p = 0.017), and target vessel revascularization (7.0% vs. 9.6%, HR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.57 to 0.99, p = 0.039) were lower with EES than SES. Definite stent thrombosis (ST) (HR: 0.30, 95% CI: 0.12 to 0.75, p = 0.01) was less frequent among patients treated with EES. The reduced rate of MI with EES was explained in part by the lower risk of definite ST and the corresponding decrease in events associated with ST (HR: 0.25, 95% CI: 0.08 to 0.75, p = 0.013). Conclusions The unrestricted use of EES appears to be associated with improved clinical long-term outcome compared with SES. Differences in favor of EES are driven in part by a lower risk of MI associated with ST.

Long-term consequences of an intensive care unit stay in older critically ill patients: design of a longitudinal study

Background Modern methods in intensive care medicine often enable the survival of older critically ill patients. The short-term outcomes for patients treated in intensive care units (ICUs), such as survival to hospital discharge, are well documented. However, relatively little is known about subsequent long-term outcomes. Pain, anxiety and agitation are important stress factors for many critically ill patients. There are very few studies concerned with pain, anxiety and agitation and the consequences in older critically ill patients. The overall aim of this study is to identify how an ICU stay influences an older person's experiences later in life. More specific, this study has the following objectives: (1) to explore the relationship between pain, anxiety and agitation during ICU stays and experiences of the same symptoms in later life; and (2) to explore the associations between pain, anxiety and agitation experienced during ICU stays and their effect on subsequent health-related quality of life, use of the health care system (readmissions, doctor visits, rehabilitation, medication use), living situation, and survival after discharge and at 6 and 12 months of follow-up. Methods/Design A prospective, longitudinal study will be used for this study. A total of 150 older critically ill patients in the ICU will participate (ICU group). Pain, anxiety, agitation, morbidity, mortality, use of the health care system, and health-related quality of life will be measured at 3 intervals after a baseline assessment. Baseline measurements will be taken 48 hours after ICU admission and one week thereafter. Follow-up measurements will take place 6 months and 12 months after discharge from the ICU. To be able to interpret trends in scores on outcome variables in the ICU group, a comparison group of 150 participants, matched by age and gender, recruited from the Swiss population, will be interviewed at the same intervals as the ICU group. Discussion Little research has focused on long term consequences after ICU admission in older critically ill patients. The present study is specifically focussing on long term consequences of stress factors experienced during ICU admission.