On Graphically Checking Goodness-of-fit of Binary Logistic Regression Models

OBJECTIVES: This paper is concerned with checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic regression models. For the practitioners of data analysis, the broad classes of procedures for checking goodness-of-fit available in the literature are described. The challenges of model checking in the context of binary logistic regression are reviewed. As a viable solution, a simple graphical procedure for checking goodness-of-fit is proposed. METHODS: The graphical procedure proposed relies on pieces of information available from any logistic analysis; the focus is on combining and presenting these in an informative way. RESULTS: The information gained using this approach is presented with three examples. In the discussion, the proposed method is put into context and compared with other graphical procedures for checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic models available in the literature. CONCLUSION: A simple graphical method can significantly improve the understanding of any logistic regression analysis and help to prevent faulty conclusions.

LOGITCPRPLOT: Stata module to graph component-plus-residual plot for logistic regression

logitcprplot can be used after logistic regression for graphing a component-plus-residual plot (a.k.a. partial residual plot) for a given predictor, including a lowess, local polynomial, restricted cubic spline, fractional polynomial, penalized spline, regression spline, running line, or adaptive variable span running line smooth

RRLOGIT: Stata module to estimate logistic regression for randomized response data

rrlogit fits a maximum-likelihood logistic regression for randomized response data.

Predicting adverse events in children with fever and chemotherapy-induced neutropenia: the prospective multicenter SPOG 2003 FN study

PURPOSE To develop a score predicting the risk of adverse events (AEs) in pediatric patients with cancer who experience fever and neutropenia (FN) and to evaluate its performance. PATIENTS AND METHODS Pediatric patients with cancer presenting with FN induced by nonmyeloablative chemotherapy were observed in a prospective multicenter study. A score predicting the risk of future AEs (ie, serious medical complication, microbiologically defined infection, radiologically confirmed pneumonia) was developed from a multivariate mixed logistic regression model. Its cross-validated predictive performance was compared with that of published risk prediction rules. Results An AE was reported in 122 (29%) of 423 FN episodes. In 57 episodes (13%), the first AE was known only after reassessment after 8 to 24 hours of inpatient management. Predicting AE at reassessment was better than prediction at presentation with FN. A differential leukocyte count did not increase the predictive performance. The score predicting future AE in 358 episodes without known AE at reassessment used the following four variables: preceding chemotherapy more intensive than acute lymphoblastic leukemia maintenance (weight = 4), hemoglobin > or = 90 g/L (weight = 5), leukocyte count less than 0.3 G/L (weight = 3), and platelet count less than 50 G/L (weight = 3). A score (sum of weights) > or = 9 predicted future AEs. The cross-validated performance of this score exceeded the performance of published risk prediction rules. At an overall sensitivity of 92%, 35% of the episodes were classified as low risk, with a specificity of 45% and a negative predictive value of 93%. CONCLUSION This score, based on four routinely accessible characteristics, accurately identifies pediatric patients with cancer with FN at risk for AEs after reassessment.

Impact of left ventricular hypertrophy late after aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality

AIMS: The goal of this study was to assess the prevalence of left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy in patients with aortic stenosis late (>6 months) after aortic valve replacement and its impact on cardiac-related morbidity and mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a single tertiary centre, echocardiographic data of LV muscle mass were collected. Detailed information of medical history and angiographic data were gathered. Ninety-nine of 213 patients (46%) had LV hypertrophy late (mean 5.8 +/- 5.4 years) after aortic valve replacement. LV hypertrophy was associated with impaired exercise capacity, higher New York Heart Association dyspnoea class, a tendency for more frequent chest pain expressed as higher Canadian Cardiovascular Society class, and more rehospitalizations. 24% of patients with normal LV mass vs. 39% of patients with LV hypertrophy reported cardiac-related morbidity (p = 0.04). In a multivariate logistic regression model, LV hypertrophy was an independent predictor of cardiac-related morbidity (odds ratio 2.31, 95% CI 1.08 to 5.41), after correction for gender, baseline ejection fraction, and coronary artery disease and its risk factors. Thirty seven deaths occurred during a total of 1959 patient years of follow-up (mean follow-up 9.6 years). Age at aortic valve replacement (hazard ratio 1.85, 95% CI 1.39 to 2.47, for every 5 years increase in age), coexisting coronary artery disease at the time of surgery (hazard ratio 3.36, 95% CI 1.31 to 8.62), and smoking (hazard ratio 4.82, 95% CI 1.72 to 13.45) were independent predictors of overall mortality late after surgery, but not LV hypertrophy. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with aortic valve replacement for isolated aortic stenosis, LV hypertrophy late after surgery is associated with increased morbidity.

Sleep-wake habits and disorders in a series of 100 adult epilepsy patients--a prospective study

The aim of the study was to assess sleep-wake habits and disorders and excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) in an unselected outpatient epilepsy population. Sleep-wake habits and presence of sleep disorders were assessed by means of a clinical interview and a standard questionnaire in 100 consecutive patients with epilepsy and 90 controls. The questionnaire includes three validated instruments: the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) for EDS, SA-SDQ for sleep apnea (SA), and the Ullanlinna Narcolepsy Scale (UNS) for narcolepsy. Sleep complaints were reported by 30% of epilepsy patients compared to 10% of controls (p=0.001). The average total sleep time was similar in both groups. Insufficient sleep times were suspected in 24% of patients and 33% of controls. Sleep maintenance insomnia was more frequent in epilepsy patients (52% vs. 38%, p=0.06), whereas nightmares (6% vs. 16%, p=0.04) and bruxism (10% vs. 19%, p=0.07) were more frequent in controls. Sleep onset insomnia (34% vs. 28%), EDS (ESS >or=10, 19% vs. 14%), SA (9% vs. 3%), restless legs symptoms (RL-symptoms, 18% vs. 12%) and most parasomnias were similarly frequent in both groups. In a stepwise logistic regression model loud snoring and RL-symptoms were found to be the only independent predictors of EDS in epilepsy patients. In conclusion, sleep-wake habits and the frequency of most sleep disorders are similar in non-selected epilepsy patients as compared to controls. In epilepsy patients, EDS was predicted by a history of loud snoring and RL-symptoms but not by SA or epilepsy-related variables (including type of epilepsy, frequency of seizures, and number of antiepileptic drugs).

Publication and non-publication of clinical trials: longitudinal study of applications submitted to a research ethics committee

BACKGROUND: Not all clinical trials are published, which may distort the evidence that is available in the literature. We studied the publication rate of a cohort of clinical trials and identified factors associated with publication and nonpublication of results. METHODS: We analysed the protocols of randomized clinical trials of drug interventions submitted to the research ethics committee of University Hospital (Inselspital) Bern, Switzerland from 1988 to 1998. We identified full articles published up to 2006 by searching the Cochrane CENTRAL database (issue 02/2006) and by contacting investigators. We analyzed factors associated with the publication of trials using descriptive statistics and logistic regression models. RESULTS: 451 study protocols and 375 corresponding articles were analyzed. 233 protocols resulted in at least one publication, a publication rate of 52%. A total of 366 (81%) trials were commercially funded, 47 (10%) had non-commercial funding. 346 trials (77%) were multi-centre studies and 272 of these (79%) were international collaborations. In the adjusted logistic regression model non-commercial funding (Odds Ratio [OR] 2.42, 95% CI 1.14-5.17), multi-centre status (OR 2.09, 95% CI 1.03-4.24), international collaboration (OR 1.87, 95% CI 0.99-3.55) and a sample size above the median of 236 participants (OR 2.04, 95% CI 1.23-3.39) were associated with full publication. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of applications to an ethics committee in Switzerland, only about half of clinical drug trials were published. Large multi-centre trials with non-commercial funding were more likely to be published than other trials, but most trials were funded by industry.

Androgen and gonadotropin patterns differ in HIV-1-infected men who develop lipoatrophy during antiretroviral therapy: a case-control study

OBJECTIVES: We compared androgen and gonadotropin values in HIV-infected men who did and did not develop lipoatrophy on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). METHODS: From a population of 136 treatment-naïve male Caucasians under successful zidovudine/lamivudine-based cART, the 10 patients developing lipoatrophy (cases) were compared with 87 randomly chosen controls. Plasma levels of free testosterone (fT), dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), follicle-stimulating hormone and luteinizing hormone (LH) were measured at baseline and after 2 years of cART. RESULTS: At baseline, 60% of the cases and 71% of the controls showed abnormally low fT values. LH levels were normal or low in 67 and 94% of the patients, respectively, indicating a disturbance of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis. fT levels did not significantly change after 2 years of cART. Cases showed a significant increase in LH levels, while controls showed a significant increase in DHEA levels. In a multivariate logistic regression model, lipoatrophy was associated with higher baseline DHEA levels (P=0.04), an increase in LH levels during cART (P=0.001), a lower body mass index and greater age. CONCLUSIONS: Hypogonadism is present in the majority of HIV-infected patients. The development of cART-related lipoatrophy is associated with an increase in LH and a lack of increase in DHEA levels.

Comparison between two caller groups of a medical call centre in Switzerland

OBJECTIVES: The incidence distribution of triage advice in the medical call centre Medi24 and the pattern of service utilisation were analysed with respect to two groups of callers with different insurance schemes. Individuals having contracted insurance of the Medi24 model could use the telephone consultation service of the medical call centre Medi24 (mainly part of the mandatory basic health insurance) voluntarily and free of charge whereas individuals holding an insurance policy of the Telmed model (special contract within the mandatory basic health insurance with a premium discount ranging from 8% to 12%) were obliged to have a telephone consultation before arranging an appointment with a medical doctor. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out in the medical call centre Medi24 based on all triage datasets of the Medi24 and Telmed groups collected during the one year period from July 1st 2005 to June 30th 2006. The distribution of the six different urgency levels within the two groups and their respective pattern of service utilisation was determined. In a multivariable logistic regression model the Odds Ratio for every enquiry originating from the Telmed group versus those originating from the Medi24 group was calculated. RESULTS: During a one-year period 48 388 triage requests reached the medical call centre Medi24, 56% derived from the Telmed group and 44% from the Medi24 group. Within the Medi24 group more than 25% of the individuals received self-care advice, within the Telmed group, on the other hand, only about 18% received such advice. In contrast, 27% of the Telmed triage requests but only 18% of the Medi24 triage requests resulted in the advice to make a routine appointment with a medical doctor. The probability that an individual of the Telmed group obtained the advice to go to the accident and emergency department was lower than for an individual of the Medi24 group (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.60-0.99). Likewise, the probability of self-care advice was decreased in regard to the Medi24 group (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.75-0.85). However, regarding the advice to make a routine appointment with a medical doctor, the Telmed group was represented more frequently than the Medi24 group (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.28-1.44). CONCLUSION: In respect of the triage advice, the Telmed group differed significantly from the Medi24 group within all urgency levels. The differences between the two groups in respect of the advice given were still less pronounced than expected against the background of their different contract conditions and the disparate temporal pattern of utilisation. We interprete this finding with the fact that appraising the urgency of health problems appropriately seems to be very difficult for the majority of people seeking advice.

Infection with human herpesvirus 8 and transplant-associated gammopathy

BACKGROUND: The role of human herpesvirus (HHV)-8 in the pathogenesis of multiple myeloma and its pre-malignant state of monoclonal gammopathy is unclear. HHV-8 is transmitted by organ transplantation, representing a unique model with which to investigate primary HHV-8 infection. METHODS: The authors studied the incidence of clonal gammopathy in renal transplant recipients and correlated it with previous and recent HHV-8 infection. RESULTS: Clonal gammopathy was observed in 31 of 162 (19%) HHV-8-seronegative patients, in 5 of 17 (29%) HHV-8-seropositive patients, and in 9 of 24 (38%) HHV-8 seroconverters within 5 years after transplantation. Gammopathy was often transient, and no progression to myeloma was observed. Two patients with persistent gammopathy developed B-cell lymphoma. In a logistic regression model, HHV-8 serostatus of the graft recipient was significantly associated with subsequent development of gammopathy, with a relative risk (RR) of 1.9 and a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 0.5 to 6.4 for an HHV-8-seropositive recipient and an RR of 2.9 and a 95% CI of 1.01 to 8.0 for seroconverters as compared with baseline (HHV-8 seronegative). Other significant variables were cytomegalovirus (CMV) serostatus and the intensity of immunosuppression (RR of 10.4 and 95% CI of 2.6-41.7 for a CMV-negative recipient with a CMV-positive donor vs. a CMV-negative recipient with a CMV-negative donor and RR of 17.6 and 95% CI of 2.0-150.8 if OKT3 was used vs. no use of antilymphocytic substances). CONCLUSIONS: Transplant recipients with HHV-8 infection are more likely to develop clonal gammopathy. However, this risk is much lower than the risk conferred by CMV infection and antilymphocytic therapy, arguing against a major role of HHV-8 infection in the pathogenesis of clonal plasma cell proliferation.

Expanding the cone location and magnitude index to include corneal thickness and posterior surface information for the detection of keratoconus

PURPOSE To extend the capabilities of the Cone Location and Magnitude Index algorithm to include a combination of topographic information from the anterior and posterior corneal surfaces and corneal thickness measurements to further improve our ability to correctly identify keratoconus using this new index: ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X. DESIGN Retrospective case-control study. METHODS Three independent data sets were analyzed: 1 development and 2 validation. The AnteriorCornealPower index was calculated to stratify the keratoconus data from mild to severe. The ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex algorithm was applied to all tomography data collected using a dual Scheimpflug-Placido-based tomographer. The ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X formula, resulting from analysis of the Development set, was used to determine the logistic regression model that best separates keratoconus from normal and was applied to all data sets to calculate PercentProbabilityKeratoconus_X. The sensitivity/specificity of PercentProbabilityKeratoconus_X was compared with the original PercentProbabilityKeratoconus, which only uses anterior axial data. RESULTS The AnteriorCornealPower severity distribution for the combined data sets are 136 mild, 12 moderate, and 7 severe. The logistic regression model generated for ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X produces complete separation for the Development set. Validation Set 1 has 1 false-negative and Validation Set 2 has 1 false-positive. The overall sensitivity/specificity results for the logistic model produced using the ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X algorithm are 99.4% and 99.6%, respectively. The overall sensitivity/specificity results for using the original ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex algorithm are 89.2% and 98.8%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X provides a robust index that can detect the presence or absence of a keratoconic pattern in corneal tomography maps with improved sensitivity/specificity from the original anterior surface-only ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex algorithm.

Adjudication-related processes are underreported and lack standardization in clinical trials of venous thromboembolism: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES Although the use of an adjudication committee (AC) for outcomes is recommended in randomized controlled trials, there are limited data on the process of adjudication. We therefore aimed to assess whether the reporting of the adjudication process in venous thromboembolism (VTE) trials meets existing quality standards and which characteristics of trials influence the use of an AC. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING We systematically searched MEDLINE and the Cochrane Library from January 1, 2003, to June 1, 2012, for randomized controlled trials on VTE. We abstracted information about characteristics and quality of trials and reporting of adjudication processes. We used stepwise backward logistic regression model to identify trial characteristics independently associated with the use of an AC. RESULTS We included 161 trials. Of these, 68.9% (111 of 161) reported the use of an AC. Overall, 99.1% (110 of 111) of trials with an AC used independent or blinded ACs, 14.4% (16 of 111) reported how the adjudication decision was reached within the AC, and 4.5% (5 of 111) reported on whether the reliability of adjudication was assessed. In multivariate analyses, multicenter trials [odds ratio (OR), 8.6; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.7, 27.8], use of a data safety-monitoring board (OR, 3.7; 95% CI: 1.2, 11.6), and VTE as the primary outcome (OR, 5.7; 95% CI: 1.7, 19.4) were associated with the use of an AC. Trials without random allocation concealment (OR, 0.3; 95% CI: 0.1, 0.8) and open-label trials (OR, 0.3; 95% CI: 0.1, 1.0) were less likely to report an AC. CONCLUSION Recommended processes of adjudication are underreported and lack standardization in VTE-related clinical trials. The use of an AC varies substantially by trial characteristics.

Clinical signs of deformed wing virus infection are predictive markers for honey bee colony losses.

The ectoparasitic mite Varroa destructor acting as a virus vector constitutes a central mechanism for losses of managed honey bee, Apis mellifera, colonies. This creates demand for an easy, accurate and cheap diagnostic tool to estimate the impact of viruliferous mites in the field. Here we evaluated whether the clinical signs of the ubiquitous and mite-transmitted deformed wing virus (DWV) can be predictive markers of winter losses. In fall and winter 2007/2008, A.m. carnica workers with apparent wing deformities were counted daily in traps installed on 29 queenright colonies. The data show that colonies which later died had a significantly higher proportion of workers with wing deformities than did those which survived. There was a significant positive correlation between V. destructor infestation levels and the number of workers displaying DWV clinical signs, further supporting the mite's impact on virus infections at the colony level. A logistic regression model suggests that colony size, the number of workers with wing deformities and V. destructor infestation levels constitute predictive markers for winter colony losses in this order of importance and ease of evaluation.

Plasma DNA is Elevated in Patients with Deep Vein Thrombosis

OBJECTIVE To investigate if plasma DNA is elevated in patients with deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and to determine whether there is a correlation with other biomarkers of DVT. BACKGROUND Leukocytes release DNA to form extracellular traps (ETs), which have recently been linked to experimental DVT. In baboons and mice, extracellular DNA co-localized with von Willebrand factor (VWF) in the thrombus and DNA appeared in circulation at the time of thrombus formation. ETs have not been associated with clinical DVT. SETTING From December 2008 to August 2010, patients were screened through the University of Michigan Diagnostic Vascular Unit and were divided into three distinct groups: 1) the DVT positive group, consisting of patients who were symptomatic for DVT, which was confirmed by compression duplex ultrasound (n=47); 2) the DVT negative group, consisting of patients that present with swelling and leg pain but had a negative compression duplex ultrasound, (n=28); and 3) a control group of healthy non-pregnant volunteers without signs or symptoms of active or previous DVT (n=19). Patients were excluded if they were less than 18 years of age, unwillingness to consent, pregnant, on an anticoagulant therapy, or diagnosed with isolated calf vein thrombosis. METHODS Blood was collected for circulating DNA, CRP, D-dimer, VWF activity, myeloperoxidase (MPO), ADAMTS13 and VWF. The Wells score for a patient's risk of DVT was assessed. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was generated to determine the strength of the relationship between circulating DNA levels and the presence of DVT. A Spearman correlation was performed to determine the relationship between the DNA levels and the biomarkers and the Wells score. Additionally the ratio of ADAMTS13/VWF was assessed. RESULTS Our results showed that circulating DNA (a surrogate marker for NETs) was significantly elevated in DVT patients, compared to both DVT negative patients (57.7±6.3 vs. 17.9±3.5ng/mL, P<.01) and controls (57.7±6.3 vs. 23.9±2.1ng/mL, P<.01). There was a strong positive correlation with CRP (P<.01), D-dimer (P<.01), VWF (P<.01), Wells score (P<.01) and myeloperoxidase (MPO) (P<.01), along with a strong negative correlation with ADAMTS13 (P<.01) and the ADAMTS13/VWF ratio. The logistic regression model showed a strong association between plasma DNA and the presence of DVT (ROC curve was determined to be 0.814). CONCLUSIONS Plasma DNA is elevated in patients with deep vein thrombosis and correlates with biomarkers of DVT. A strong correlation between circulating DNA and MPO suggests that neutrophils may be a source of plasma DNA in patients with DVT.