On Graphically Checking Goodness-of-fit of Binary Logistic Regression Models

OBJECTIVES: This paper is concerned with checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic regression models. For the practitioners of data analysis, the broad classes of procedures for checking goodness-of-fit available in the literature are described. The challenges of model checking in the context of binary logistic regression are reviewed. As a viable solution, a simple graphical procedure for checking goodness-of-fit is proposed. METHODS: The graphical procedure proposed relies on pieces of information available from any logistic analysis; the focus is on combining and presenting these in an informative way. RESULTS: The information gained using this approach is presented with three examples. In the discussion, the proposed method is put into context and compared with other graphical procedures for checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic models available in the literature. CONCLUSION: A simple graphical method can significantly improve the understanding of any logistic regression analysis and help to prevent faulty conclusions.

LOGITCPRPLOT: Stata module to graph component-plus-residual plot for logistic regression

logitcprplot can be used after logistic regression for graphing a component-plus-residual plot (a.k.a. partial residual plot) for a given predictor, including a lowess, local polynomial, restricted cubic spline, fractional polynomial, penalized spline, regression spline, running line, or adaptive variable span running line smooth

RRLOGIT: Stata module to estimate logistic regression for randomized response data

rrlogit fits a maximum-likelihood logistic regression for randomized response data.

Predicting 3-year mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention: updated logistic clinical SYNTAX score based on patient-level data from 7 contemporary stent trials

OBJECTIVES This study aimed to update the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score to predict 3-year survival after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and compare the performance with the SYNTAX score alone. BACKGROUND The SYNTAX score is a well-established angiographic tool to predict long-term outcomes after PCI. The Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score, developed by combining clinical variables with the anatomic SYNTAX score, has been shown to perform better than the SYNTAX score alone in predicting 1-year outcomes after PCI. However, the ability of this score to predict long-term survival is unknown. METHODS Patient-level data (N = 6,304, 399 deaths within 3 years) from 7 contemporary PCI trials were analyzed. We revised the overall risk and the predictor effects in the core model (SYNTAX score, age, creatinine clearance, and left ventricular ejection fraction) using Cox regression analysis to predict mortality at 3 years. We also updated the extended model by combining the core model with additional independent predictors of 3-year mortality (i.e., diabetes mellitus, peripheral vascular disease, and body mass index). RESULTS The revised Logistic Clinical SYNTAX models showed better discriminative ability than the anatomic SYNTAX score for the prediction of 3-year mortality after PCI (c-index: SYNTAX score, 0.61; core model, 0.71; and extended model, 0.73 in a cross-validation procedure). The extended model in particular performed better in differentiating low- and intermediate-risk groups. CONCLUSIONS Risk scores combining clinical characteristics with the anatomic SYNTAX score substantially better predict 3-year mortality than the SYNTAX score alone and should be used for long-term risk stratification of patients undergoing PCI.

Blood glucose and prognosis in children with presumed severe malaria: is there a threshold for 'hypoglycaemia'?

OBJECTIVES: Hypoglycaemia (glucose <2.2 mmol/l) is a defining feature of severe malaria, but the significance of other levels of blood glucose has not previously been studied in children with severe malaria. METHODS: A prospective study of 437 consecutive children with presumed severe malaria was conducted in Mali. We defined hypoglycaemia as <2.2 mmol/l, low glycaemia as 2.2-4.4 mmol/l and hyperglycaemia as >8.3 mmol/l. Associations between glycaemia and case fatality were analysed for 418 children using logistic regression models and a receiver operator curve (ROC). RESULTS: There was a significant difference between blood glucose levels in children who died (median 4.6 mmol/l) and survivors (median 7.6 mmol/l, P < 0.001). Case fatality declined from 61.5% of the hypoglycaemic children to 46.2% of those with low glycaemia, 13.4% of those with normal glycaemia and 7.6% of those with hyperglycaemia (P < 0.001). Logistic regression showed an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 0.75 (0.64-0.88) for case fatality per 1 mmol/l increase in baseline blood glucose. Compared to a normal blood glucose, hypoglycaemia and low glycaemia both significantly increased the odds of death (AOR 11.87, 2.10-67.00; and 5.21, 1.86-14.63, respectively), whereas hyperglycaemia reduced the odds of death (AOR 0.34, 0.13-0.91). The ROC [area under the curve at 0.753 (95% CI 0.684-0.820)] indicated that glycaemia had a moderate predictive value for death and identified an optimal threshold at glycaemia <6.1 mmol/l, (sensitivity 64.5% and specificity 75.1%). CONCLUSIONS: If there is a threshold of blood glucose which defines a worse prognosis, it is at a higher level than the current definition of 2.2 mmol/l.

Stroke, coronary and peripheral artery disease survey on antithrombotic treatment (START IT)

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: To determine the perception of primary care physicians regarding the risk of subsequent atherothrombotic events in patients with established cardiovascular (CV) disease, and to correlate this perception with documented antithrombotic therapy. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study of the general practice population in Switzerland, 381 primary care physicians screened 127 040 outpatients during 15 consecutive workdays in 2006. Perception of subsequent atherothrombotic events in patients with established CV disease was assessed using a tick box questionnaire allowing choices between low, moderate, high or very high risk. Logistic regression models were used to determine the relationship between risk perception and antithrombotic treatment. RESULTS: Overall, 13 057 patients (10.4%) were identified as having established CV disease and 48.8% of those were estimated to be at high to very high risk for subsequent atherothrombotic events. Estimated higher risk for subsequent atherothrombotic events was associated with a shift from aspirin monotherapy to clopidogrel, vitamin K antagonist or aspirin plus clopidogrel (p <0.001 for trend). Clopidogrel (12.7% vs 6.8%, p <0.001), vitamin K antagonist (24.5% vs 15.6%, p <0.001) or aspirin plus clopidogrel (10.2% vs 4.2%, p <0.001) were prescribed in patients estimated to be at high to very high risk more often than in those at low to moderate risk. CONCLUSIONS: Perception of primary care physicians regarding risk of subsequent atherothrombotic events varies in patients with CV disease, and as a result antithrombotic therapy is altered in patients with anticipated high to very high risk even though robust evidence and clear guidelines are lacking.

Prevalence of burnout among surgical residents and surgeons in Switzerland

Burnout is a pathologic reaction in response to long-term work-related stress. The aim of this study was 2-fold: first, to assess the prevalence and degree of burnout among surgical residents and surgeons in Switzerland and, second, to identify predictors of burnout in the surgical community. Four hundred five of 618 anonymous questionnaires (65.5%) were returned. Among respondents, 3.7% and 35.1% showed high and moderate degrees of burnout, respectively. Respondents with high and moderate degrees of burnout had higher summary scores of perceived stress (P < .001). In multiple logistic regression analysis, the strongest predictors of burnout were poor interaction with nurses, disturbances due to telephone consultations, and high overall workload. To reduce burnout, new work models should be sought, in addition to decreasing work intensity and workload rather than restricting work hours alone.

Prognostic importance of anaemia in patients with acute pulmonary embolism

Although associated with adverse outcomes in other cardiopulmonary diseases, limited evidence exists on the prognostic value of anaemia in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). We sought to examine the associations between anaemia and mortality and length of hospital stay in patients with PE. We evaluated 14,276 patients with a primary diagnosis of PE from 186 hospitals in Pennsylvania, USA. We used random-intercept logistic regression to assess the association between anaemia at the time of presentation and 30-day mortality and discrete-time logistic hazard models to assess the association between anaemia and time to hospital discharge, adjusting for patient (age, gender, race, insurance type, clinical and laboratory variables) and hospital (region, size, teaching status) factors. Anaemia was present in 38.7% of patients at admission. Patients with anaemia had a higher 30-day mortality (13.7% vs. 6.3%; p <0.001) and a longer length of stay (geometric mean, 6.9 vs. 6.6 days; p <0.001) compared to patients without anaemia. In multivariable analyses, anaemia remained associated with an increased odds of death (OR 1.82, 95% CI: 1.60-2.06) and a decreased odds of discharge (OR 0.85, 95% CI: 0.82-0.89). Anaemia is very common in patients presenting with PE and is independently associated with an increased short-term mortality and length of stay.

Association between cam-type deformities and magnetic resonance imaging-detected structural hip damage: a cross-sectional study in young men

Objective Femoroacetabular impingement may be a risk factor for hip osteoarthritis in men. An underlying hip deformity of the cam type is common in asymptomatic men with nondysplastic hips. This study was undertaken to examine whether hip deformities of the cam type are associated with signs of hip abnormality, including labral lesions and articular cartilage damage, detectable on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Methods In this cross-sectional, population-based study in asymptomatic young men, 1,080 subjects underwent clinical examination and completed a self-report questionnaire. Of these subjects, 244 asymptomatic men with a mean age of 19.9 years underwent MRI. All MRIs were read for cam-type deformities, labral lesions, cartilage thickness, and impingement pits. The relationship between cam-type deformities and signs of joint damage were examined using logistic regression models adjusted for age and body mass index. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were determined. Results Sixty-seven definite cam-type deformities were detected. These deformities were associated with labral lesions (adjusted OR 2.77 [95% CI 1.31, 5.87]), impingement pits (adjusted OR 2.9 [95% CI 1.43, 5.93]), and labral deformities (adjusted OR 2.45 [95% CI 1.06, 5.66]). The adjusted mean difference in combined anterosuperior femoral and acetabular cartilage thickness was −0.19 mm (95% CI −0.41, 0.02) lower in those with cam-type deformities compared to those without. Conclusion Our findings indicate that the presence of a cam-type deformity is associated with MRI-detected hip damage in asymptomatic young men.

Daily Physical Activities and Sports in Adult Survivors of Childhood Cancer and Healthy Controls: A Population-Based Questionnaire Survey

Background Healthy lifestyle including sufficient physical activity may mitigate or prevent adverse long-term effects of childhood cancer. We described daily physical activities and sports in childhood cancer survivors and controls, and assessed determinants of both activity patterns. Methodology/Principal Findings The Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study is a questionnaire survey including all children diagnosed with cancer 1976–2003 at age 0–15 years, registered in the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry, who survived ≥5years and reached adulthood (≥20years). Controls came from the population-based Swiss Health Survey. We compared the two populations and determined risk factors for both outcomes in separate multivariable logistic regression models. The sample included 1058 survivors and 5593 controls (response rates 78% and 66%). Sufficient daily physical activities were reported by 52% (n = 521) of survivors and 37% (n = 2069) of controls (p<0.001). In contrast, 62% (n = 640) of survivors and 65% (n = 3635) of controls reported engaging in sports (p = 0.067). Risk factors for insufficient daily activities in both populations were: older age (OR for ≥35years: 1.5, 95CI 1.2–2.0), female gender (OR 1.6, 95CI 1.3–1.9), French/Italian Speaking (OR 1.4, 95CI 1.1–1.7), and higher education (OR for university education: 2.0, 95CI 1.5–2.6). Risk factors for no sports were: being a survivor (OR 1.3, 95CI 1.1–1.6), older age (OR for ≥35years: 1.4, 95CI 1.1–1.8), migration background (OR 1.5, 95CI 1.3–1.8), French/Italian speaking (OR 1.4, 95CI 1.2–1.7), lower education (OR for compulsory schooling only: 1.6, 95CI 1.2–2.2), being married (OR 1.7, 95CI 1.5–2.0), having children (OR 1.3, 95CI 1.4–1.9), obesity (OR 2.4, 95CI 1.7–3.3), and smoking (OR 1.7, 95CI 1.5–2.1). Type of diagnosis was only associated with sports. Conclusions/Significance Physical activity levels in survivors were lower than recommended, but comparable to controls and mainly determined by socio-demographic and cultural factors. Strategies to improve physical activity levels could be similar as for the general population.

Predictors and overestimation of recalled mobile phone use among children and adolescents

A growing body of literature addresses possible health effects of mobile phone use in children and adolescents by relying on the study participants' retrospective reconstruction of mobile phone use. In this study, we used data from the international case-control study CEFALO to compare self-reported with objectively operator-recorded mobile phone use. The aim of the study was to assess predictors of level of mobile phone use as well as factors that are associated with overestimating own mobile phone use. For cumulative number and duration of calls as well as for time since first subscription we calculated the ratio of self-reported to operator-recorded mobile phone use. We used multiple linear regression models to assess possible predictors of the average number and duration of calls per day and logistic regression models to assess possible predictors of overestimation. The cumulative number and duration of calls as well as the time since first subscription of mobile phones were overestimated on average by the study participants. Likelihood to overestimate number and duration of calls was not significantly different for controls compared to cases (OR=1.1, 95%-CI: 0.5 to 2.5 and OR=1.9, 95%-CI: 0.85 to 4.3, respectively). However, likelihood to overestimate was associated with other health related factors such as age and sex. As a consequence, such factors act as confounders in studies relying solely on self-reported mobile phone use and have to be considered in the analysis.

Replicative phenotyping adds value to genotypic resistance testing in heavily pre-treated HIV-infected individuals--the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Background Replicative phenotypic HIV resistance testing (rPRT) uses recombinant infectious virus to measure viral replication in the presence of antiretroviral drugs. Due to its high sensitivity of detection of viral minorities and its dissecting power for complex viral resistance patterns and mixed virus populations rPRT might help to improve HIV resistance diagnostics, particularly for patients with multiple drug failures. The aim was to investigate whether the addition of rPRT to genotypic resistance testing (GRT) compared to GRT alone is beneficial for obtaining a virological response in heavily pre-treated HIV-infected patients. Methods Patients with resistance tests between 2002 and 2006 were followed within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). We assessed patients' virological success after their antiretroviral therapy was switched following resistance testing. Multilevel logistic regression models with SHCS centre as a random effect were used to investigate the association between the type of resistance test and virological response (HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/mL or ≥1.5log reduction). Results Of 1158 individuals with resistance tests 221 with GRT+rPRT and 937 with GRT were eligible for analysis. Overall virological response rates were 85.1% for GRT+rPRT and 81.4% for GRT. In the subgroup of patients with >2 previous failures, the odds ratio (OR) for virological response of GRT+rPRT compared to GRT was 1.45 (95% CI 1.00-2.09). Multivariate analyses indicate a significant improvement with GRT+rPRT compared to GRT alone (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.31-2.15). Conclusions In heavily pre-treated patients rPRT-based resistance information adds benefit, contributing to a higher rate of treatment success.