On Graphically Checking Goodness-of-fit of Binary Logistic Regression Models

OBJECTIVES: This paper is concerned with checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic regression models. For the practitioners of data analysis, the broad classes of procedures for checking goodness-of-fit available in the literature are described. The challenges of model checking in the context of binary logistic regression are reviewed. As a viable solution, a simple graphical procedure for checking goodness-of-fit is proposed. METHODS: The graphical procedure proposed relies on pieces of information available from any logistic analysis; the focus is on combining and presenting these in an informative way. RESULTS: The information gained using this approach is presented with three examples. In the discussion, the proposed method is put into context and compared with other graphical procedures for checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic models available in the literature. CONCLUSION: A simple graphical method can significantly improve the understanding of any logistic regression analysis and help to prevent faulty conclusions.

A retrospective analysis of patients referred for implant placement to a specialty clinic: indications, surgical procedures, and early failures

Purpose: This retrospective study analyzed the pool of patients referred for treatment with dental implants over a 3-year period in a referral specialty clinic. Materials and Methods: All patients receiving dental implants between 2002 and 2004 in the Department of Oral Surgery and Stomatology, University of Bern, were included in this retrospective study. Patients were analyzed according to age, gender, indications for implant therapy, location of implants, and type and length of implants placed. A cumulative logistic regression analysis was performed to identify and analyze potential risk factors for complications or failures. Results: A total of 1,206 patients received 1,817 dental implants. The group comprised 573 men and 633 women with a mean age of 55.2 years. Almost 60% of patients were age 50 or older. The most frequent indication for implant therapy was single-tooth replacement in the maxilla (522 implants or 28.7%). A total of 726 implants (40%) were inserted in the esthetically demanding region of the anterior maxilla. For 939 implants (51.7%), additional bone-augmentation procedures were required. Of these, ridge augmentation with guided bone regeneration was performed more frequently than sinus grafting. Thirteen complications leading to early failures were recorded, resulting in an early failure rate of 0.7%. The regression analysis failed to identify statistically significant failure etiologies for the variables assessed. Conclusions: From this study it can be concluded that patients referred to a specialty clinic for implant placement were more likely to be partially edentulous and over 50 years old. Single-tooth replacement was the most frequent indication (> 50%). Similarly, additional bone augmentation was indicated in more than 50% of cases. Adhering to strict patient selection criteria and a standardized surgical protocol, an early failure rate of 0.7% was experienced in this study population

RISK OF SHUNT-DEPENDENT HYDROCEPHALUS AFTER OCCLUSION OF RUPTURED INTRACRANIAL ANEURYSMS BY SURGICAL CLIPPING OR ENDOVASCULAR COILING: A SINGLE-INSTITUTION SERIES AND META-ANALYSIS

OBJECTIVE: To compare the risk of shunt-dependent hydrocephalus after treatment of ruptured intracranial aneurysms by clipping versus coiling. METHODS: We analyzed 596 patients prospectively added to our database from July of 1999 to November of 2005 concerning the risk of shunt dependency after clipping versus coiling. Factors analyzed included age; sex; Hunt and Hess grade; Fisher grade; acute hydrocephalus; intraventricular hemorrhage; angiographic vasospasm; and number, size, and location of aneurysms. In addition, a meta-analysis of available data from the literature was performed identifying four studies with quantitative data on the frequency of clip, coil, and shunt dependency. RESULTS: The institutional series revealed Hunt and Hess grade, Fisher grade, acute hydrocephalus, intraventricular hemorrhage, and angiographic vasospasm as significant (P < 0.05) risk factors for shunt dependency after a univariate analysis. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, we isolated intraventricular hemorrhage, acute hydrocephalus, and angiographic vasospasm as independent, significant risk factors for shunt dependency. The meta-analysis, including the current data, revealed a significantly higher risk for shunt dependency after coiling than after clipping (P = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Clipping of a ruptured aneurysm may be associated with a lower risk for developing shunt dependency, possibly by clot removal. This might influence long-term outcome and surgical decision making.

Graft coronary vasculopathy in cardiac transplantation--evaluation of risk factors by multivariate analysis

The development of coronary vasculopathy is the main determinant of long-term survival in cardiac transplantation. The identification of risk factors, therefore, seems necessary in order to identify possible treatment strategies. Ninety-five out of 397 patients, undergoing orthotopic cardiac transplantation from 10/1985 to 10/1992 were evaluated retrospectively on the basis of perioperative and postoperative variables including age, sex, diagnosis, previous operations, renal function, cholesterol levels, dosage of immunosuppressive drugs (cyclosporin A, azathioprine, steroids), incidence of rejection, treatment with calcium channel blockers at 3, 6, 12, and 18 months postoperatively. Coronary vasculopathy was assessed by annual angiography at 1 and 2 years postoperatively. After univariate analysis, data were evaluated by stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis. Coronary vasculopathy was assessed in 15 patients at 1 (16%), and in 23 patients (24%) at 2, years. On multivariate analysis, previous operations and the incidence of rejections were identified as significant risk factors (P < 0.05), whereas the underlying diagnosis had borderline significance (P = 0.058) for the development of graft coronary vasculopathy. In contrast, all other variables were not significant in our subset of patients investigated. We therefore conclude that the development of coronary vasculopathy in cardiac transplant patients mainly depends on the rejection process itself, aside from patient-dependent factors. Therapeutic measures, such as the administration of calcium channel blockers and regulation of lipid disorders, may therefore only reduce the progress of native atherosclerotic disease in the posttransplant setting.

Detection of Malnutrition in Patients Undergoing Maintenance Haemodialysis: A Quantitative Data Analysis on 12 Parameters

Background Protein-energy-malnutrition (PEM) is common in people with end stage kidney disease (ESKD) undergoing maintenance haemodialysis (MHD) and correlates strongly with mortality. To this day, there is no gold standard for detecting PEM in patients on MHD. Aim of Study The aim of this study was to evaluate if Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS-2002), handgrip strength measurement, mid-upper arm muscle area (MUAMA), triceps skin fold measurement (TSF), serum albumin, normalised protein catabolic rate (nPCR), Kt/V and eKt/V, dry body weight, body mass index (BMI), age and time since start on MHD are relevant for assessing PEM in patients on MHD. Methods The predictive value of the selected parameters on mortality and mortality or weight loss of more than 5% was assessed. Quantitative data analysis of the 12 parameters in the same patients on MHD in autumn 2009 (n = 64) and spring 2011 (n = 40) with paired statistical analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed. Results Paired data analysis showed significant reduction of dry body weight, BMI and nPCR. Kt/Vtot did not change, eKt/v and hand grip strength measurements were significantly higher in spring 2011. No changes were detected in TSF, serum albumin, NRS-2002 and MUAMA. Serum albumin was shown to be the only predictor of death and of the combined endpoint “death or weight loss of more than 5%”. Conclusion We now screen patients biannually for serum albumin, nPCR, Kt/V, handgrip measurement of the shunt-free arm, dry body weight, age and time since initiation of MHD.

Implant therapy in a surgical specialty clinic: an analysis of patients, indications, surgical procedures, risk factors, and early failures

PURPOSE The aim of this study was to analyze the patient pool referred to a specialty clinic for implant surgery over a 3-year period. MATERIALS AND METHODS All patients receiving dental implants between 2008 and 2010 at the Department of Oral Surgery and Stomatology were included in the study. As primary outcome parameters, the patients were analyzed according to the following criteria: age, sex, systemic diseases, and indication for therapy. For the inserted implants, the type of surgical procedure, the types of implants placed, postsurgical complications, and early failures were recorded. A logistic regression analysis was performed to identify possible local and systemic risk factors for complications. As a secondary outcome, data regarding demographics and surgical procedures were compared with the findings of a historic study group (2002 to 2004). RESULTS A total of 1,568 patients (792 women and 776 men; mean age, 52.6 years) received 2,279 implants. The most frequent indication was a single-tooth gap (52.8%). Augmentative procedures were performed in 60% of the cases. Tissue-level implants (72.1%) were more frequently used than bone-level implants (27.9%). Regarding dimensions of the implants, a diameter of 4.1 mm (59.7%) and a length of 10 mm (55.0%) were most often utilized. An early failure rate of 0.6% was recorded (13 implants). Patients were older and received more implants in the maxilla, and the complexity of surgical interventions had increased when compared to the patient pool of 2002 to 2004. CONCLUSION Implant therapy performed in a surgical specialty clinic utilizing strict patient selection and evidence-based surgical protocols showed a very low early failure rate of 0.6%.

LOGITCPRPLOT: Stata module to graph component-plus-residual plot for logistic regression

logitcprplot can be used after logistic regression for graphing a component-plus-residual plot (a.k.a. partial residual plot) for a given predictor, including a lowess, local polynomial, restricted cubic spline, fractional polynomial, penalized spline, regression spline, running line, or adaptive variable span running line smooth

RRLOGIT: Stata module to estimate logistic regression for randomized response data

rrlogit fits a maximum-likelihood logistic regression for randomized response data.

WGTTEST: Stata module to test the impact of sampling weights in regression analysis

wgttest performs a test proposed by DuMouchel and Duncan (1983) to evaluate whether the weighted and unweighted estimates of a regression model are significantly different.

Skin cancers in renal transplant recipients: A description of the renal transplant cohort in Bern

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Skin tumours, in particular squamous-cell carcinomas (SCC), are the most common malignant conditions developing in transplant recipients. The aim of this study is to investigate the frequency and type of skin cancer in patients receiving immunosuppressive therapy after organ transplantation. METHODS: Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed on data of 243 renal transplant patients who attended the dermatology outpatient clinic for the first time after transplantation in the period January 2002-October 2005. RESULTS: We found an increased risk of actinic keratosis (AK) and SCC in renal transplant recipients with a basal cell carcinoma (BCC) / SCC ratio of 1:7. Older patients had AK more frequently (odds ratio [OR] 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-1.15; p <0.0001) and SCC (OR 1.14, CI 1.07-1.22; p <0.0001) than younger patients. Men had AK (OR 0.19, CI 0.08-0.45; p = 0.0002) and SCC (OR 0.25, CI 0.07-0.89; p = 0.0332) more frequently than women. The duration of immunosuppressive therapy correlated significantly with the numbers of AKs (OR 1.15, CI 1.08-1.24; p <0.0001) and SCCs (OR 1.16, CI 1.05-1.28; p = 0.0025), and patients with fair skin had more AKs (OR 0.31, CI 0.14-1.24; p <0.0001) and SCCs (OR 0.11, CI 0.02-0.52; p = 0.0054) than darker skinned patients. We could not identify any specific immunosuppressive drug as a distinct risk factor for AK or non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC). CONCLUSION: Skin cancers are increased in the renal transplant population. Main risk factors for skin cancers are fair skin type and long duration of immunosuppressive therapy. A follow-up programme is necessary for early detection of skin cancer and precancerous conditions. Preventive strategies should include specialist dermatological monitoring and self-examination.

Significance of Periodontal Risk Assessment in the recurrence of periodontitis and tooth loss

Aim: To investigate the association of the Periodontal Risk Assessment (PRA) model categories with periodontitis recurrence and tooth loss during supportive periodontal therapy (SPT) and to explore the role of patient compliance. Material and Methods: In a retrospective cohort, PRA was performed for 160 patients after active periodontal therapy (APT) and after 9.5 ± 4.5 years of SPT. The recurrence of periodontitis and tooth loss were analysed according to the patient's risk profile (low, moderate or high) after APT and compliance with SPT. The association of risk factors with tooth loss and recurrence of periodontitis was investigated using logistic regression analysis. Results: In 18.2% of patients with a low-risk profile, in 42.2% of patients with a moderate-risk profile and in 49.2% of patients with a high-risk profile after APT, periodontitis recurred. During SPT, 1.61 ± 2.8 teeth/patient were lost. High-risk profile patients lost significantly more teeth (2.59 ± 3.9) than patients with moderate- (1.02 ± 1.8) or low-risk profiles (1.18 ± 1.9) (Kruskal–Wallis test, p=0.0229). Patients with erratic compliance lost significantly (Kruskal–Wallis test, p=0.0067) more teeth (3.11 ± 4.5) than patients compliant with SPT (1.07 ± 1.6). Conclusions: In multivariate logistic regression analysis, a high-risk patient profile according to the PRA model at the end of APT was associated with recurrence of periodontitis. Another significant factor for recurrence of periodontitis was an SPT duration of more than 10 years.

Prevalence of burnout among surgical residents and surgeons in Switzerland

Burnout is a pathologic reaction in response to long-term work-related stress. The aim of this study was 2-fold: first, to assess the prevalence and degree of burnout among surgical residents and surgeons in Switzerland and, second, to identify predictors of burnout in the surgical community. Four hundred five of 618 anonymous questionnaires (65.5%) were returned. Among respondents, 3.7% and 35.1% showed high and moderate degrees of burnout, respectively. Respondents with high and moderate degrees of burnout had higher summary scores of perceived stress (P < .001). In multiple logistic regression analysis, the strongest predictors of burnout were poor interaction with nurses, disturbances due to telephone consultations, and high overall workload. To reduce burnout, new work models should be sought, in addition to decreasing work intensity and workload rather than restricting work hours alone.

Risk assessment in the first fifteen minutes: a prospective cohort study of a simple physiological scoring system in the emergency department

Introduction The survival of patients admitted to an emergency department is determined by the severity of acute illness and the quality of care provided. The high number and the wide spectrum of severity of illness of admitted patients make an immediate assessment of all patients unrealistic. The aim of this study is to evaluate a scoring system based on readily available physiological parameters immediately after admission to an emergency department (ED) for the purpose of identification of at-risk patients. Methods This prospective observational cohort study includes 4,388 consecutive adult patients admitted via the ED of a 960-bed tertiary referral hospital over a period of six months. Occurrence of each of seven potential vital sign abnormalities (threat to airway, abnormal respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, low Glasgow Coma Scale and seizures) was collected and added up to generate the vital sign score (VSS). VSSinitial was defined as the VSS in the first 15 minutes after admission, VSSmax as the maximum VSS throughout the stay in ED. Occurrence of single vital sign abnormalities in the first 15 minutes and VSSinitial and VSSmax were evaluated as potential predictors of hospital mortality. Results Logistic regression analysis identified all evaluated single vital sign abnormalities except seizures and abnormal respiratory rate to be independent predictors of hospital mortality. Increasing VSSinitial and VSSmax were significantly correlated to hospital mortality (odds ratio (OR) 2.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.50 to 3.14, P < 0.0001 for VSSinitial; OR 2.36, 95% CI 2.15 to 2.60, P < 0.0001 for VSSmax). The predictive power of VSS was highest if collected in the first 15 minutes after ED admission (log rank Chi-square 468.1, P < 0.0001 for VSSinitial;,log rank Chi square 361.5, P < 0.0001 for VSSmax). Conclusions Vital sign abnormalities and VSS collected in the first minutes after ED admission can identify patients at risk of an unfavourable outcome.