Prediction of 1-year mortality in patients with acute coronary syndromes undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: validation of the logistic clinical SYNTAX (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Interventions With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) score

OBJECTIVES This study sought to validate the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) score in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (ACS), in order to further legitimize its clinical application. BACKGROUND The Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score allows for an individualized prediction of 1-year mortality in patients undergoing contemporary percutaneous coronary intervention. It is composed of a "Core" Model (anatomical SYNTAX score, age, creatinine clearance, and left ventricular ejection fraction), and "Extended" Model (composed of an additional 6 clinical variables), and has previously been cross validated in 7 contemporary stent trials (>6,000 patients). METHODS One-year all-cause death was analyzed in 2,627 patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention from the ACUITY (Acute Catheterization and Urgent Intervention Triage Strategy) trial. Mortality predictions from the Core and Extended Models were studied with respect to discrimination, that is, separation of those with and without 1-year all-cause death (assessed by the concordance [C] statistic), and calibration, that is, agreement between observed and predicted outcomes (assessed with validation plots). Decision curve analyses, which weight the harms (false positives) against benefits (true positives) of using a risk score to make mortality predictions, were undertaken to assess clinical usefulness. RESULTS In the ACUITY trial, the median SYNTAX score was 9.0 (interquartile range 5.0 to 16.0); approximately 40% of patients had 3-vessel disease, 29% diabetes, and 85% underwent drug-eluting stent implantation. Validation plots confirmed agreement between observed and predicted mortality. The Core and Extended Models demonstrated substantial improvements in the discriminative ability for 1-year all-cause death compared with the anatomical SYNTAX score in isolation (C-statistics: SYNTAX score: 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.56 to 0.71; Core Model: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.79; Extended Model: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.70 to 0.83). Decision curve analyses confirmed the increasing ability to correctly identify patients who would die at 1 year with the Extended Model versus the Core Model versus the anatomical SYNTAX score, over a wide range of thresholds for mortality risk predictions. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the anatomical SYNTAX score alone, the Core and Extended Models of the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score more accurately predicted individual 1-year mortality in patients presenting with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. These findings support the clinical application of the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score.

Blood glucose and prognosis in children with presumed severe malaria: is there a threshold for 'hypoglycaemia'?

OBJECTIVES: Hypoglycaemia (glucose <2.2 mmol/l) is a defining feature of severe malaria, but the significance of other levels of blood glucose has not previously been studied in children with severe malaria. METHODS: A prospective study of 437 consecutive children with presumed severe malaria was conducted in Mali. We defined hypoglycaemia as <2.2 mmol/l, low glycaemia as 2.2-4.4 mmol/l and hyperglycaemia as >8.3 mmol/l. Associations between glycaemia and case fatality were analysed for 418 children using logistic regression models and a receiver operator curve (ROC). RESULTS: There was a significant difference between blood glucose levels in children who died (median 4.6 mmol/l) and survivors (median 7.6 mmol/l, P < 0.001). Case fatality declined from 61.5% of the hypoglycaemic children to 46.2% of those with low glycaemia, 13.4% of those with normal glycaemia and 7.6% of those with hyperglycaemia (P < 0.001). Logistic regression showed an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 0.75 (0.64-0.88) for case fatality per 1 mmol/l increase in baseline blood glucose. Compared to a normal blood glucose, hypoglycaemia and low glycaemia both significantly increased the odds of death (AOR 11.87, 2.10-67.00; and 5.21, 1.86-14.63, respectively), whereas hyperglycaemia reduced the odds of death (AOR 0.34, 0.13-0.91). The ROC [area under the curve at 0.753 (95% CI 0.684-0.820)] indicated that glycaemia had a moderate predictive value for death and identified an optimal threshold at glycaemia <6.1 mmol/l, (sensitivity 64.5% and specificity 75.1%). CONCLUSIONS: If there is a threshold of blood glucose which defines a worse prognosis, it is at a higher level than the current definition of 2.2 mmol/l.

Relationship between the logistic EuroSCORE and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score in patients implanted with the CoreValve ReValving system--a Bern-Rotterdam Study

Background Surgical risk scores, such as the logistic EuroSCORE (LES) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS) score, are commonly used to identify high-risk or “inoperable” patients for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). In Europe, the LES plays an important role in selecting patients for implantation with the Medtronic CoreValve System. What is less clear, however, is the role of the STS score of these patients and the relationship between the LES and STS. Objective The purpose of this study is to examine the correlation between LES and STS scores and their performance characteristics in high-risk surgical patients implanted with the Medtronic CoreValve System. Methods All consecutive patients (n = 168) in whom a CoreValve bioprosthesis was implanted between November 2005 and June 2009 at 2 centers (Bern University Hospital, Bern, Switzerland, and Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands) were included for analysis. Patient demographics were recorded in a prospective database. Logistic EuroSCORE and STS scores were calculated on a prospective and retrospective basis, respectively. Results Observed mortality was 11.1%. The mean LES was 3 times higher than the mean STS score (LES 20.2% ± 13.9% vs STS 6.7% ± 5.8%). Based on the various LES and STS cutoff values used in previous and ongoing TAVI trials, 53% of patients had an LES ≥15%, 16% had an STS ≥10%, and 40% had an LES ≥20% or STS ≥10%. Pearson correlation coefficient revealed a reasonable (moderate) linear relationship between the LES and STS scores, r = 0.58, P < .001. Although the STS score outperformed the LES, both models had suboptimal discriminatory power (c-statistic, 0.49 for LES and 0.69 for STS) and calibration. Conclusions Clinical judgment and the Heart Team concept should play a key role in selecting patients for TAVI, whereas currently available surgical risk score algorithms should be used to guide clinical decision making.

Combined anatomical and clinical factors for the long-term risk stratification of patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score

The SYNTAX score (SXscore), an anatomical-based scoring tool reflecting the complexity of coronary anatomy, has established itself as an important long-term prognostic factor in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). The incorporation of clinical factors may further augment the utility of the SXscore to longer-term risk stratify the individual patient for clinical outcomes.

An integrative transcranial magnetic stimulation mapping technique using non-linear curve fitting

The aim of this study is to develop a new simple method for analyzing one-dimensional transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) mapping studies in humans. Motor evoked potentials (MEP) were recorded from the abductor pollicis brevis (APB) muscle during stimulation at nine different positions on the scalp along a line passing through the APB hot spot and the vertex. Non-linear curve fitting according to the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was performed on the averaged amplitude values obtained at all points to find the best-fitting symmetrical and asymmetrical peak functions. Several peak functions could be fitted to the experimental data. Across all subjects, a symmetric, bell-shaped curve, the complementary error function (erfc) gave the best results. This function is characterized by three parameters giving its amplitude, position, and width. None of the mathematical functions tested with less or more than three parameters fitted better. The amplitude and position parameters of the erfc were highly correlated with the amplitude at the hot spot and with the location of the center of gravity of the TMS curve. In conclusion, non-linear curve fitting is an accurate method for the mathematical characterization of one-dimensional TMS curves. This is the first method that provides information on amplitude, position and width simultaneously.

Short anterior correction of the thoracolumbar/lumbar curve in King 1 idiopathic scoliosis: the behaviour of the instrumented and non-instrumented curves and the trunk balance

This is a retrospective clinical, radiological and patient outcome assessment of 21 consecutive patients with King 1 idiopathic adolescent scoliosis treated by short anterior selective fusion of the major thoracolumbar/lumbar (TL/L) curve. Three-dimensional changes of both curves, changes in trunk balance and rib hump were evaluated. The minimal follow-up was 24 months (max. 83). The Cobb angle of the TL/L curve was 52 degrees (45-67 degrees) with a flexibility of 72% (40-100%). The average length of the main curve was 5 (3-8) segments. An average of 3 (2-4) segments was fused using rigid single rod implants with side-loading screws. The Cobb angle of the thoracic curve was 33 degrees (18-50 degrees) with a flexibility of 69% (29-100%). The thoracic curve in bending was less than 20 degrees in 17 patients, and 20-25 degrees in 4 patients. In the TL/L curve there was an improvement of the Cobb angle of 67%, of the apex vertebral rotation of 51% and of the apex vertebral translation of 74%. The Cobb angle of the thoracic curve improved 29% spontaneously. Shoulder balance improved significantly from an average preoperative imbalance of 14.5-3.1 mm at the last follow-up. Seventy-five percent of the patients with preoperative positive shoulder imbalance (higher on the side of the thoracic curve) had levelled shoulders at the last follow-up. C7 offset improved from a preoperative 19.8 (0-40) to 4.8 (0-18) mm at the last follow-up. There were no significant changes in rotation, translation of the thoracic curve and the clinical rib hump. There were no significant changes in thoracic kyphosis or lumbar lordosis. The average score of the SRS-24 questionnaire at the last follow-up was 91 points (max. 120). We conclude that short anterior selective fusion of the TL/L curve in King 1 scoliosis with a thoracic curve bending to 25 degrees or less (Type 5 according to Lenke classification) results in a satisfactory correction and a balanced spine. Short fusions leave enough mobile lumbar segments for the establishment of global spinal balance. A positive shoulder imbalance is not a contraindication for this procedure. Structural interbody grafts are not necessary to maintain lumbar lordosis.

The effect of a myocardial infarction on the normalized time-varying elastance curve

It has been suggested that the shape of the normalized time-varying elastance curve [E(n)(t(n))] is conserved in different cardiac pathologies. We hypothesize, however, that the E(n)(t(n)) differs quantitatively after myocardial infarction (MI). Sprague-Dawley rats (n = 9) were anesthetized, and the left anterior descending coronary artery was ligated to provoke the MI. A sham-operated control group (CTRL) (n = 10) was treated without the MI. Two months later, a conductance catheter was inserted into the left ventricle (LV). The LV pressure and volume were measured and the E(n)(t(n)) derived. Slopes of E(n)(t(n)) during the preejection period (alpha(PEP)), ejection period (alpha(EP)), and their ratio (beta = alpha(EP)/alpha(PEP)) were calculated, together with the characteristic decay time during isovolumic relaxation (tau) and the normalized elastance at end diastole (E(min)(n)). MI provoked significant LV chamber dilatation, thus a loss in cardiac output (-33%), ejection fraction (-40%), and stroke volume (-30%) (P < 0.05). Also, it caused significant calcium increase (17-fold), fibrosis (2-fold), and LV hypertrophy. End-systolic elastance dropped from 0.66 +/- 0.31 mmHg/microl (CTRL) to 0.34 +/- 0.11 mmHg/microl (MI) (P < 0.05). Normalized elastance was significantly reduced in the MI group during the preejection, ejection, and diastolic periods (P < 0.05). The slope of E(n)(t(n)) during the alpha(PEP) and beta were significantly altered after MI (P < 0.05). Furthermore, tau and end-diastolic E(min)(n) were both significantly augmented in the MI group. We conclude that the E(n)(t(n)) differs quantitatively in all phases of the heart cycle, between normal and hearts post-MI. This should be considered when utilizing the single-beat concept.

Blood concentration curve of cyclosporine: impact of itraconazole in lung transplant recipients

Although the influence of cytochrome P450 inhibitory drugs on the area under the curve (AUC) of cyclosporine (CsA) has been described, data concerning the impact of these substances on the shape of the blood concentration curve are scarce. By assessment of CsA blood levels before and 1, 2, and 4 hr after oral intake (C0, C1, C2, and C4, respectively) CsA profiling examinations were performed in 20 lung transplant recipients taking 400 mg, 200 mg, and no itraconazole, respectively. The three groups showed comparable results for C0, C2, and AUC(0-12). Greater values were found for Cmax, Cmax-C0, peak-trough fluctuation and rise to Cmax in favor of the non-itraconazole group. Additionally, tmax was shorter in the non-itraconazole group. Comedication with the metabolic inhibitor itraconazole is associated with a flattening of the CsA blood concentration profile in lung transplant recipients. These changes cannot be assessed by isolated C0, C2, or AUC(0-12) values alone.