A mathematical model of regional citrate anticoagulation in hemodialysis

Regional citrate anticoagulation (RCA) during hemodialysis (HD) has several advantages over heparin anticoagulation, but calcium (Ca) derangements are a major concern necessitating repeated monitoring of systemic ionized Ca (Ca(2+)). We developed a mathematical model of Ca and citrate (Ci) kinetics during RCA.

Effect of pulsatility on the mathematical modeling of rotary blood pumps

In this study, the effect of time derivatives of flow rate and rotational speed was investigated on the mathematical modeling of a rotary blood pump (RBP). The basic model estimates the pressure head of the pump as a dependent variable using measured flow and speed as predictive variables. Performance of the model was evaluated by adding time derivative terms for flow and speed. First, to create a realistic working condition, the Levitronix CentriMag RBP was implanted in a sheep. All parameters from the model were physically measured and digitally acquired over a wide range of conditions, including pulsatile speed. Second, a statistical analysis of the different variables (flow, speed, and their time derivatives) based on multiple regression analysis was performed to determine the significant variables for pressure head estimation. Finally, different mathematical models were used to show the effect of time derivative terms on the performance of the models. In order to evaluate how well the estimated pressure head using different models fits the measured pressure head, root mean square error and correlation coefficient were used. The results indicate that inclusion of time derivatives of flow and speed can improve model accuracy, but only minimally.

A cardiovascular mathematical model of graded head-up tilt

A lumped parameter model of the cardiovascular system has been developed and optimized using experimental data obtained from 13 healthy subjects during graded head-up tilt (HUT) from the supine position to [Formula: see text]. The model includes descriptions of the left and right heart, direct ventricular interaction through the septum and pericardium, the systemic and pulmonary circulations, nonlinear pressure volume relationship of the lower body compartment, arterial and cardiopulmonary baroreceptors, as well as autoregulatory mechanisms. A number of important features, including the separate effects of arterial and cardiopulmonary baroreflexes, and autoregulation in the lower body, as well as diastolic ventricular interaction through the pericardium have been included and tested for their significance. Furthermore, the individual effect of parameter associated with heart failure, including LV and RV contractility, baseline systemic vascular resistance, pulmonary vascular resistance, total blood volume, LV diastolic stiffness and reflex gain on HUT response have also been investigated. Our fitted model compares favorably with our experimental measurements and published literature at a range of tilt angles, in terms of both global and regional hemodynamic variables. Compared to the normal condition, a simulated congestive heart failure condition produced a blunted response to HUT with regards to the percentage changes in cardiac output, stroke volume, end diastolic volume and effector response (i.e., heart contractility, venous unstressed volume, systemic vascular resistance and heart rate) with progressive tilting.

Dopaminergic modulation of rapid reality adaptation in thinking

Dopamine has long held a prominent role in the interpretation of schizophrenia and other psychoses. Clinical studies on confabulation and disorientation, disorders marked by a confusion of reality in thinking, indicated that the ability to keep thinking in phase with reality depends on a process suppressing the interference of upcoming memories that do not refer to ongoing reality. A host of animal studies and a recent clinical study suggested that this suppression might correspond to the phasic inhibition of dopaminergic neurons in response to the absence of expected outcomes. In this study, we tested healthy subjects with a difficult version of a memory paradigm on which confabulating patients had failed. Subjects participated in three test sessions, in which they received in double-blind, randomized fashion L-dopa, risperidone, or placebo. We found that l-dopa, in comparison with risperidone, impaired performance in a highly specific way, which corresponded to the pattern of patients with reality confusion. Specifically, they had an increase of false positive responses, while overall memory performance and reaction times were unaffected. We conclude that dopaminergic transmission influences the ability to rapidly adapt thinking to ongoing reality.

Tracing of patients lost to follow-up and HIV transmission: Mathematical modelling study based on two large ART programmes in Malawi

OBJECTIVES: Treatment as prevention depends on retaining HIV-infected patients in care. We investigated the effect on HIV transmission of bringing patients lost to follow up (LTFU) back into care. DESIGN: Mathematical model. METHODS: Stochastic mathematical model of cohorts of 1000 HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART), based on data from two clinics in Lilongwe, Malawi. We calculated cohort viral load (CVL; sum of individual mean viral loads each year) and used a mathematical relationship between viral load and transmission probability to estimate the number of new HIV infections. We simulated four scenarios: 'no LTFU' (all patients stay in care); 'no tracing' (patients LTFU are not traced); 'immediate tracing' (after missed clinic appointment); and, 'delayed tracing' (after six months). RESULTS: About 440 of 1000 patients were LTFU over five years. CVL (million copies/ml per 1000 patients) were 3.7 (95% prediction interval [PrI] 2.9-4.9) for no LTFU, 8.6 (95% PrI 7.3-10.0) for no tracing, 7.7 (95% PrI 6.2-9.1) for immediate, and 8.0 (95% PrI 6.7-9.5) for delayed tracing. Comparing no LTFU with no tracing the number of new infections increased from 33 (95% PrI 29-38) to 54 (95% PrI 47-60) per 1000 patients. Immediate tracing prevented 3.6 (95% PrI -3.3-12.8) and delayed tracing 2.5 (95% PrI -5.8-11.1) new infections per 1000. Immediate tracing was more efficient than delayed tracing: 116 and to 142 tracing efforts, respectively, were needed to prevent one new infection. CONCLUSION: Tracing of patients LTFU enhances the preventive effect of ART, but the number of transmissions prevented is small.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of traditional and new partner notification technologies for curable sexually transmitted infections: observational study, systematic reviews and mathematical modelling

BACKGROUND Partner notification is essential to the comprehensive case management of sexually transmitted infections. Systematic reviews and mathematical modelling can be used to synthesise information about the effects of new interventions to enhance the outcomes of partner notification. OBJECTIVE To study the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of traditional and new partner notification technologies for curable sexually transmitted infections (STIs). DESIGN Secondary data analysis of clinical audit data; systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials (MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) published from 1 January 1966 to 31 August 2012 and of studies of health-related quality of life (HRQL) [MEDLINE, EMBASE, ISI Web of Knowledge, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) and Health Technology Assessment (HTA)] published from 1 January 1980 to 31 December 2011; static models of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness; and dynamic modelling studies to improve parameter estimation and examine effectiveness. SETTING General population and genitourinary medicine clinic attenders. PARTICIPANTS Heterosexual women and men. INTERVENTIONS Traditional partner notification by patient or provider referral, and new partner notification by expedited partner therapy (EPT) or its UK equivalent, accelerated partner therapy (APT). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Population prevalence; index case reinfection; and partners treated per index case. RESULTS Enhanced partner therapy reduced reinfection in index cases with curable STIs more than simple patient referral [risk ratio (RR) 0.71; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56 to 0.89]. There are no randomised trials of APT. The median number of partners treated for chlamydia per index case in UK clinics was 0.60. The number of partners needed to treat to interrupt transmission of chlamydia was lower for casual than for regular partners. In dynamic model simulations, > 10% of partners are chlamydia positive with look-back periods of up to 18 months. In the presence of a chlamydia screening programme that reduces population prevalence, treatment of current partners achieves most of the additional reduction in prevalence attributable to partner notification. Dynamic model simulations show that cotesting and treatment for chlamydia and gonorrhoea reduce the prevalence of both STIs. APT has a limited additional effect on prevalence but reduces the rate of index case reinfection. Published quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) weights were of insufficient quality to be used in a cost-effectiveness study of partner notification in this project. Using an intermediate outcome of cost per infection diagnosed, doubling the efficacy of partner notification from 0.4 to 0.8 partners treated per index case was more cost-effective than increasing chlamydia screening coverage. CONCLUSIONS There is evidence to support the improved clinical effectiveness of EPT in reducing index case reinfection. In a general heterosexual population, partner notification identifies new infected cases but the impact on chlamydia prevalence is limited. Partner notification to notify casual partners might have a greater impact than for regular partners in genitourinary clinic populations. Recommendations for future research are (1) to conduct randomised controlled trials using biological outcomes of the effectiveness of APT and of methods to increase testing for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and STIs after APT; (2) collection of HRQL data should be a priority to determine QALYs associated with the sequelae of curable STIs; and (3) standardised parameter sets for curable STIs should be developed for mathematical models of STI transmission that are used for policy-making. FUNDING The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Wright’s Version of Critical Realism

N. T. Wright’s research project “Christian Origins and the Question of God” is characterized by its use of the method of critical realism. Now, “critical realism” is a term that has been used in connection with different epistemo-logical positions because the term has been “constantly reinvented.” It is very easy to make up a term when one wants to distinguish oneself from an assumed naïve approach to reality. As has been observed earlier, the use of a distinct term does not necessarily mean the same if used by another author; the context is important. One has to track literal dependencies to evaluate whether continuity with former uses of a term is intended. That is to say, the term “critical realism” has proven to be equivocal, although this has rarely been noticed . This does not mean that taking such a critical realist stance cannot present a decisive advantage over rather unreflective approaches to whatever sort of reality. Nevertheless, philosophically it can probably only be a start. The purpose of this contribution to this compendium will be to analyze the content claims and the status of N. T. Wright’s critical realism in these regards, with a special emphasis on Paul and the Faithfulness of God, of course.

Observation of ventilation-induced Spo(2) oscillations in pigs: first step to noninvasive detection of cyclic recruitment of atelectasis?

High arterial partial oxygen pressure (Pao(2)) oscillations within the respiratory cycle were described recently in experimental acute lung injury. This phenomenon has been related to cyclic recruitment of atelectasis and varying pulmonary shunt fractions. Noninvasive detection of Spo(2) (oxygen saturation measured by pulse oximetry) as an indicator of cyclic collapse of atelectasis, instead of recording Pao(2) oscillations, could be of clinical interest in critical care. Spo(2) oscillations were recorded continuously in three different cases of lung damage to demonstrate the technical feasibility of this approach. To deduce Pao(2) from Spo(2), a mathematical model of the hemoglobin dissociation curve including left and right shifts was derived from the literature and adapted to the dynamic changes of oxygenation. Calculated Pao(2) amplitudes (derived from Spo(2) measurements) were compared to simultaneously measured fast changes of Pao(2), using a current standard method (fluorescence quenching of ruthenium). Peripheral hemoglobin saturation was capable to capture changes of Spo(2) within each respiratory cycle. For the first time, Spo(2) oscillations due to cyclic recruitment of atelectasis within a respiratory cycle were determined by photoplethysmography, a technology that can be readily applied noninvasively in clinical routine. A mathematic model to calculate the respective Pao(2) changes was developed and its applicability tested.

Impaired immune evasion in HIV through intracellular delays and multiple infection of cells

With its high mutation rate, HIV is capable of escape from recognition, suppression and/or killing by CD8(+) cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs). The rate at which escape variants replace each other can give insights into the selective pressure imposed by single CTL clones. We investigate the effects of specific characteristics of the HIV life cycle on the dynamics of immune escape. First, it has been found that cells in HIV-infected patients can carry multiple copies of proviruses. To investigate how this process affects the emergence of immune escape, we develop a mathematical model of HIV dynamics with multiple infections of cells. Increasing the frequency of multiple-infected cells delays the appearance of immune escape variants, slows down the rate at which they replace the wild-type variant and can even prevent escape variants from taking over the quasi-species. Second, we study the effect of the intracellular eclipse phase on the rate of escape and show that escape rates are expected to be slower than previously anticipated. In summary, slow escape rates do not necessarily imply inefficient CTL-mediated killing of HIV-infected cells, but are at least partly a result of the specific characteristics of the viral life cycle.

Theoretical considerations to the verification of dynamic multileaf collimated fields with a SLIC-type portal image detector

The verification possibilities of dynamically collimated treatment beams with a scanning liquid ionization chamber electronic portal image device (SLIC-EPID) are investigated. The ion concentration in the liquid of a SLIC-EPID and therefore the read-out signal is determined by two parameters of a differential equation describing the creation and recombination of the ions. Due to the form of this equation, the portal image detector describes a nonlinear dynamic system with memory. In this work, the parameters of the differential equation were experimentally determined for the particular chamber in use and for an incident open 6 MV photon beam. The mathematical description of the ion concentration was then used to predict portal images of intensity-modulated photon beams produced by a dynamic delivery technique, the sliding window approach. Due to the nature of the differential equation, a mathematical condition for 'reliable leaf motion verification' in the sliding window technique can be formulated. It is shown that the time constants for both formation and decay of the equilibrium concentration in the chamber is in the order of seconds. In order to guarantee reliable leaf motion verification, these time constants impose a constraint on the rapidity of the image-read out for a given maximum leaf speed. For a leaf speed of 2 cm s(-1), a minimum image acquisition frequency of about 2 Hz is required. Current SLIC-EPID systems are usually too slow since they need about a second to acquire a portal image. However, if the condition is fulfilled, the memory property of the system can be used to reconstruct the leaf motion. It is shown that a simple edge detecting algorithm can be employed to determine the leaf positions. The method is also very robust against image noise.