Decision strategies for policy decisions under uncertainties: The case of mitigation measures addressing methane emissions from ruminants

Decision strategies aim at enabling reasonable decisions in cases of uncertain policy decision problems which do not meet the conditions for applying standard decision theory. This paper focuses on decision strategies that account for uncertainties by deciding whether a proposed list of policy options should be accepted or revised (scope strategies) and whether to decide now or later (timing strategies). They can be used in participatory approaches to structure the decision process. As a basis, we propose to classify the broad range of uncertainties affecting policy decision problems along two dimensions, source of uncertainty (incomplete information, inherent indeterminacy and unreliable information) and location of uncertainty (information about policy options, outcomes and values). Decision strategies encompass multiple and vague criteria to be deliberated in application. As an example, we discuss which decision strategies may account for the uncertainties related to nutritive technologies that aim at reducing methane (CH4) emissions from ruminants as a means of mitigating climate change, limiting our discussion to published scientific information. These considerations not only speak in favour of revising rather than accepting the discussed list of options, but also in favour of active postponement or semi-closure of decision-making rather than closure or passive postponement.

Land Management in the Central Highlands of Eritrea: A Participatory Appraisal of Conservation Measures and Soils in Afdeyu and its Vicinity

A comprehensive inventory of local and introduced soil and water conservation (SWC) measures presented in standardized fact sheets and completed with a special focus on the underlying reasons (problems) of acceptance / rejection. Different approaches are analysed and measures identified which are adapted to the specific local context. Second part of the study: soil assessment resulting in a consistent local classification of soil types and soil fertility, comparison with scientific classifications. Different topical maps show the spatial distribution of SWC measures, their condition, degradation hotspots, soil types, soil fertility and interrelations between these parameters. Based on the conclusions and the outcome of a stakeholder workshop recommendations are given for further activities in research and implementation of SWC in the Central Highlands of Eritrea.

The Sensitivity of Physiological Measures to Phobic and Nonphobic Fear Intensity

We investigated whether amygdala activation, autonomic responses, respiratory responses, and facial muscle activity (measured over the brow and cheek [fear grin] regions) are all sensitive to phobic versus nonphobic fear and, more importantly, whether effects in these variables vary as a function of both phobic and nonphobic fear intensity. Spider-phobic and comparably low spider-fearful control participants imagined encountering different animals and rated their subjective fear while their central and peripheral nervous system activity was measured. All measures included in our study were sensitive to variations in subjective fear, but were related to different ranges and positions on the subjective fear level continuum. Left amygdala activation, heart rate, and facial muscle activity over the cheek region captured fear intensity variations even within narrowly described regions on the fear level continuum (here within extremely low levels of fear and within considerable phobic fear). Skin conductance and facial muscle activity over the brow region did not capture fear intensity variations within low levels of fear: skin conductance mirrored only extreme levels of fear, and activity over the brow region distinguished phobic from nonphobic fear but also low-to-moderate and high phobic fear. Finally, respiratory measures distinguished phobic from nonphobic fear with no further differentiation within phobic and nonphobic fear. We conclude that a careful consideration of the measures to be used in an investigation and the population to be examined can be critical in order to obtain significant results.

Global evidence in local debates: the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) in Swiss direct-democratic debates on school policy

This article analyses the use of the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) and other evidence in educational policy discourse in the context of direct-democratic votes in Switzerland. The results of a quantitative content analysis show that PISA is used by all actors to support a wide range of policy measures and ideological positions. Other evidence, however, is only used to support single specific policy positions. These findings demonstrate the ubiquity of PISA. The article discusses these results in view of the question of whether the incorporation of evidence into policy debates contributes to informed discourse.

High Rates of Smoking Especially in Female Crohn's Disease Patients and Low Use of Supportive Measures to Achieve Smoking Cessation--Data from the Swiss IBD Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS Smoking is a crucial environmental factor in inflammatory bowel disease [IBD]. However, knowledge on patient characteristics associated with smoking, time trends of smoking rates, gender differences and supportive measures to cease smoking provided by physicians is scarce. We aimed to address these questions in Swiss IBD patients. METHODS Prospectively obtained data from patients participating in the Swiss IBD Cohort Study was analysed and compared with the general Swiss population [GSP] matched by age, sex and year. RESULTS Among a total of 1770 IBD patients analysed [49.1% male], 29% are current smokers. More than twice as many patients with Crohn's disease [CD] are active smokers compared with ulcerative colitis [UC] [UC, 39.6% vs CD 15.3%, p < 0.001]. In striking contrast to the GSP, significantly more women than men with CD smoke [42.8% vs 35.8%, p = 0.025], with also an overall significantly increased smoking rate compared with the GSP in women but not men. The vast majority of smoking IBD patients [90.5%] claim to never have received any support to achieve smoking cessation, significantly more in UC compared with CD. We identify a significantly negative association of smoking and primary sclerosing cholangitis, indicative of a protective effect. Psychological distress in CD is significantly higher in smokers compared with non-smokers, but does not differ in UC. CONCLUSIONS Despite well-established detrimental effects, smoking rates in CD are alarmingly high with persistent and stagnating elevations compared with the GSP, especially in female patients. Importantly, there appears to be an unacceptable underuse of supportive measures to achieve smoking cessation.

Social Network Analysis and Qualitative Comparative Analysis: Their mutual benefit for the explanation of policy network structures

By switching the level of analysis and aggregating data from the micro-level of individual cases to the macro-level, quantitative data can be analysed within a more case-based approach. This paper presents such an approach in two steps: In a first step, it discusses the combination of Social Network Analysis (SNA) and Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) in a sequential mixed-methods research design. In such a design, quantitative social network data on individual cases and their relations at the micro-level are used to describe the structure of the network that these cases constitute at the macro-level. Different network structures can then be compared by QCA. This strategy allows adding an element of potential causal explanation to SNA, while SNA-indicators allow for a systematic description of the cases to be compared by QCA. Because mixing methods can be a promising, but also a risky endeavour, the methodological part also discusses the possibility that underlying assumptions of both methods could clash. In a second step, the research design presented beforehand is applied to an empirical study of policy network structures in Swiss politics. Through a comparison of 11 policy networks, causal paths that lead to a conflictual or consensual policy network structure are identified and discussed. The analysis reveals that different theoretical factors matter and that multiple conjunctural causation is at work. Based on both the methodological discussion and the empirical application, it appears that a combination of SNA and QCA can represent a helpful methodological design for social science research and a possibility of using quantitative data with a more case-based approach.

Drivers of collaboration to mitigate climate change: An illustration of Swiss climate policy over 15 years

Climate change mitigation policy is driven by scientific knowledge and involves actors from the international, national and local decision-making levels. This multi-level and cross-sectoral context requires collaborative management when designing mitigation solutions over time and space. But collaboration in general policymaking settings, and particularly in the complex domain of climate mitigation, is not an easy task. This paper addresses the question of what drives collaboration among collective actors involved in climate mitigation policy. We wish to investigate whether common beliefs or power structures influence collaboration among actors. We adopt a longitudinal approach to grasp differences between the early and more advanced stages of mitigation policy design. We use survey data to investigate actors’ collaboration, beliefs and power, and apply a Stochastic Actor-oriented Model for network dynamics to three subsequent networks in Swiss climate policy between 1995 and 2012. Results show that common beliefs among actors, as well as formal power structures, have a higher impact on collaboration relations than perceived power structures. Furthermore, those effects hold true for decision-making about initial mitigation strategies, but less so for the implementation of those measures.

Choosing the Path of Austerity: How Policy Coalitions Shape Welfare-policy Choices in Periods of Fiscal Consolidation

In general, fiscal adjustments are associated with significant reductions in social spending. Hence, the welfare state is not spared from austerity. Because the welfare state is still central to party competition, this is electorally risky. The paper addresses the following questions: Do left parties differ from their centrist and rightist competitors in the design of austerity measures? And does government type has an impact on the extent to which austerity policies rely on social spending cuts? By comparing 17 OECD countries between 1982 and 2009 we show that if governments embark on a path to austerity, their ideology does not have a significant effect on the magnitude of welfare state retrenchment. However, if major opposition parties and interest groups rally against social spending cuts, a broad pro-reform coalition is a crucial precondition for large fiscal consolidation programs to rely on substantial cuts to social security.