Learning from failure--rationale and design for a study about discontinuation of randomized trials (DISCO study)

Background Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) may be discontinued because of apparent harm, benefit, or futility. Other RCTs are discontinued early because of insufficient recruitment. Trial discontinuation has ethical implications, because participants consent on the premise of contributing to new medical knowledge, Research Ethics Committees (RECs) spend considerable effort reviewing study protocols, and limited resources for conducting research are wasted. Currently, little is known regarding the frequency and characteristics of discontinued RCTs. Methods/Design Our aims are, first, to determine the prevalence of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons; second, to determine whether the risk of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons differs between investigator- and industry-initiated RCTs; third, to identify risk factors for RCT discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment; fourth, to determine at what stage RCTs are discontinued; and fifth, to examine the publication history of discontinued RCTs. We are currently assembling a multicenter cohort of RCTs based on protocols approved between 2000 and 2002/3 by 6 RECs in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada. We are extracting data on RCT characteristics and planned recruitment for all included protocols. Completion and publication status is determined using information from correspondence between investigators and RECs, publications identified through literature searches, or by contacting the investigators. We will use multivariable regression models to identify risk factors for trial discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment. We aim to include over 1000 RCTs of which an anticipated 150 will have been discontinued due to insufficient recruitment. Discussion Our study will provide insights into the prevalence and characteristics of RCTs that were discontinued. Effective recruitment strategies and the anticipation of problems are key issues in the planning and evaluation of trials by investigators, Clinical Trial Units, RECs and funding agencies. Identification and modification of barriers to successful study completion at an early stage could help to reduce the risk of trial discontinuation, save limited resources, and enable RCTs to better meet their ethical requirements.

An Instrument Design for Space-Based Optical Observation of Space Debris

Currently, observations of space debris are primarily performed with ground-based sensors. These sensors have a detection limit at some centimetres diameter for objects in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and at about two decimetres diameter for objects in Geostationary Orbit (GEO). The few space-based debris observations stem mainly from in-situ measurements and from the analysis of returned spacecraft surfaces. Both provide information about mostly sub-millimetre-sized debris particles. As a consequence the population of centimetre- and millimetre-sized debris objects remains poorly understood. The development, validation and improvement of debris reference models drive the need for measurements covering the whole diameter range. In 2003 the European Space Agency (ESA) initiated a study entitled “Space-Based Optical Observation of Space Debris”. The first tasks of the study were to define user requirements and to develop an observation strategy for a space-based instrument capable of observing uncatalogued millimetre-sized debris objects. Only passive optical observations were considered, focussing on mission concepts for the LEO, and GEO regions respectively. Starting from the requirements and the observation strategy, an instrument system architecture and an associated operations concept have been elaborated. The instrument system architecture covers the telescope, camera and onboard processing electronics. The proposed telescope is a folded Schmidt design, characterised by a 20 cm aperture and a large field of view of 6°. The camera design is based on the use of either a frame-transfer charge coupled device (CCD), or on a cooled hybrid sensor with fast read-out. A four megapixel sensor is foreseen. For the onboard processing, a scalable architecture has been selected. Performance simulations have been executed for the system as designed, focussing on the orbit determination of observed debris particles, and on the analysis of the object detection algorithms. In this paper we present some of the main results of the study. A short overview of the user requirements and observation strategy is given. The architectural design of the instrument is discussed, and the main tradeoffs are outlined. An insight into the results of the performance simulations is provided.

A system design for space-based space surveillance

This paper presents the capabilities of a Space-Based Space Surveillance (SBSS) demonstration mission for Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) based on a micro- satellite platform. The results have been produced in the frame of ESA’s "As sessment Study for Space Based Space Surveillance Demonstration Mission (Phase A) " performed by the Airbus DS consortium. Space Surveillance and Tracking is part of Space Situational Awareness (SSA) and covers the detection, tracking and cataloguing of spa ce debris and satellites. Derived SST services comprise a catalogue of these man-made objects, collision warning, detection and characterisation of in-orbit fragmentations, sub-catalogue debris characterisation, etc. The assessment of SBSS in an SST system architecture has shown that both an operational SBSS and also already a well - designed space-based demonstrator can provide substantial performance in terms of surveillance and tracking of beyond - LEO objects. Especially the early deployment of a demonstrator, possible by using standard equipment, could boost initial operating capability and create a self-maintained object catalogue. Unlike classical technology demonstration missions, the primary goal is the demonstration and optimisation of the functional elements in a complex end-to-end chain (mission planning, observation strategies, data acquisition, processing and fusion, etc.) until the final products can be offered to the users. The presented SBSS system concept takes the ESA SST System Requirements (derived within the ESA SSA Preparatory Program) into account and aims at fulfilling some of the SST core requirements in a stand-alone manner. The evaluation of the concept has shown that an according solution can be implemented with low technological effort and risk. The paper presents details of the system concept, candidate micro - satellite platforms, the observation strategy and the results of performance simulations for GEO coverage and cataloguing accuracy

Space-based space surveillance and tracking demonstrator: mission and system design

This paper presents the capabilities of a Space-Based Space Surveillance (SBSS) demonstration mission for Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) based on a micro-satellite platform. The results have been produced in the frame of ESA’s "Assessment Study for Space Based Space Surveillance Demonstration Mission" performed by the Airbus Defence and Space consortium. The assessment of SBSS in an SST system architecture has shown that both an operational SBSS and also already a well- designed space-based demonstrator can provide substantial performance in terms of surveillance and tracking of beyond-LEO objects. Especially the early deployment of a demonstrator, possible by using standard equipment, could boost initial operating capability and create a self-maintained object catalogue. Furthermore, unique statistical information about small-size LEO debris (mm size) can be collected in-situ. Unlike classical technology demonstration missions, the primary goal is the demonstration and optimisation of the functional elements in a complex end-to-end chain (mission planning, observation strategies, data acquisition, processing, etc.) until the final products can be offered to the users and with low technological effort and risk. The SBSS system concept takes the ESA SST System Requirements into account and aims at fulfilling SST core requirements in a stand-alone manner. Additionally, requirements for detection and characterisation of small-sizedLEO debris are considered. The paper presents details of the system concept, candidate micro-satellite platforms, the instrument design and the operational modes. Note that the detailed results of performance simulations for space debris coverage and cataloguing accuracy are presented in a separate paper “Capability of a Space-based Space Surveillance System to Detect and Track Objects in GEO, MEO and LEO Orbits” by J. Silha (AIUB) et al., IAC-14, A6, 1.1x25640.