Timing of initiation of antiretroviral therapy in AIDS-free HIV-1-infected patients: a collaborative analysis of 18 HIV cohort studies

BACKGROUND: The CD4 cell count at which combination antiretroviral therapy should be started is a central, unresolved issue in the care of HIV-1-infected patients. In the absence of randomised trials, we examined this question in prospective cohort studies. METHODS: We analysed data from 18 cohort studies of patients with HIV. Antiretroviral-naive patients from 15 of these studies were eligible for inclusion if they had started combination antiretroviral therapy (while AIDS-free, with a CD4 cell count less than 550 cells per microL, and with no history of injecting drug use) on or after Jan 1, 1998. We used data from patients followed up in seven of the cohorts in the era before the introduction of combination therapy (1989-95) to estimate distributions of lead times (from the first CD4 cell count measurement in an upper range to the upper threshold of a lower range) and unseen AIDS and death events (occurring before the upper threshold of a lower CD4 cell count range is reached) in the absence of treatment. These estimations were used to impute completed datasets in which lead times and unseen AIDS and death events were added to data for treated patients in deferred therapy groups. We compared the effect of deferred initiation of combination therapy with immediate initiation on rates of AIDS and death, and on death alone, in adjacent CD4 cell count ranges of width 100 cells per microL. FINDINGS: Data were obtained for 21 247 patients who were followed up during the era before the introduction of combination therapy and 24 444 patients who were followed up from the start of treatment. Deferring combination therapy until a CD4 cell count of 251-350 cells per microL was associated with higher rates of AIDS and death than starting therapy in the range 351-450 cells per microL (hazard ratio [HR] 1.28, 95% CI 1.04-1.57). The adverse effect of deferring treatment increased with decreasing CD4 cell count threshold. Deferred initiation of combination therapy was also associated with higher mortality rates, although effects on mortality were less marked than effects on AIDS and death (HR 1.13, 0.80-1.60, for deferred initiation of treatment at CD4 cell count 251-350 cells per microL compared with initiation at 351-450 cells per microL). INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that 350 cells per microL should be the minimum threshold for initiation of antiretroviral therapy, and should help to guide physicians and patients in deciding when to start treatment.

Elemental and Lead Isotopic Data of Copper Finds from the Singen Cemetery, Germany – a Methodological Approach to Investigate Early Bronze Age Trade Networks

We report a trace element - Pb isotope analytical (LIA) database on the "Singen Copper", a peculiar type of copper found in the North Alpine realm, from its type locality, the Early Bronze Age Singen Cemetery (Germany). What distinguishes “Singen Copper” from other coeval copper types? (i) is it a discrete metal lot with a uniform provenance (if so, can its provenance be constrained)? (ii) was it manufactured by a special, unique metallurgical process that can be discriminated from others? Trace element concentrations can give clues on the ore types that were mined, but they can be modified (more or less intentionally) by metallurgical operations. A more robust indicator are the ratios of chemically similar elements (e.g. Co/Ni, Bi/Sb, etc.), since they should remain nearly constant during metallurgical operations, and are expected to behave homogeneously in each mineral of a given mining area, but their partition amongst the different mineral species is known to cause strong inter-element fractionations. We tested the trace element ratio pattern predicted by geochemical arguments on the Brixlegg mining area. Brixlegg itself is not compatible with the Singen Copper objects, and we only report it because it is a rare instance of a mining area for which sufficient trace element analyses are available in the literature. We observe that As/Sb in fahlerz varies by a factor 1.8 above/below median; As/Sb in enargite varies by a factor of 2.5 with a 10 times higher median. Most of the 102 analyzed metal objects from Singen are Sb-Ni-rich, corresponding to “antimony-nickel copper” of the literature. Other trace element concentrations vary by > 100 times, ratios by factors > 50. Pb isotopic compositions are all significantly different from each other. They do not form a single linear array and require > 3 ore batches that certainly do not derive from one single mining area. Our data suggest a heterogeneous provenance of “Singen copper”. Archaeological information limits the scope to Central European sources. LIA requires a diverse supply network from many mining localities, including possibly Brittany. Trace element ratios show more heterogeneity than LIA; this can be explained either by deliberate selection of one particular ore mineral (from very many sources) or by processing of assorted ore minerals from a smaller number of sources, with the unintentional effect that the quality of the copper would not be constant, as the metallurgical properties of alloys would vary with trace element concentrations.

History of Atmospheric Lead Deposition Since 12,370 14C yr BP from a Peat Bog, Jura Mountains, Switzerland

A continuous record of atmospheric lead since 12,370 carbon-14 years before the present (14C yr BP) is preserved in a Swiss peat bog. Enhanced fluxes caused by climate changes reached their maxima 10,590 14C yr BP (Younger Dryas) and 823014C yr BP. Soil erosion caused by forest clearing and agricultural tillage increased lead deposition after 532014C yr BP. Increasing lead/scandium and decreasing lead-206/lead-207 beginning 3000 14C yr BP indicate the beginning of lead pollution from mining and smelting, and anthropogenic sources have dominated lead emissions ever since. The greatest lead flux (15.7 milligrams per square meter per year in A.D. 1979) was 1570 times the natural, background value (0.01 milligram per square meter per year from 8030 to 5320 14C yr BP).