Association between sustained virological response and all-cause mortality among patients with chronic hepatitis C and advanced hepatic fibrosis

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection outcomes include liver failure, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver-related death.

The number needed to treat to prevent mortality and cirrhosis-related complications among patients with cirrhosis and HCV genotype 1 infection

Cirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection remain at risk for complications following sustained virological response (SVR). Therefore, we aimed to evaluate treatment efficacy with the number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent clinical endpoints. Mortality and cirrhosis-related morbidity were assessed in an international multicentre cohort of consecutively treated patients with HCV genotype 1 infection and cirrhosis. The NNT to prevent death or clinical disease progression (any cirrhosis-related event or death) in one patient was determined with the adjusted (event-free) survival among patients without SVR and adjusted hazard ratio of SVR. Overall, 248 patients were followed for a median of 8.3 (IQR 6.2-11.1) years. Fifty-nine (24%) patients attained SVR. Among patients without SVR, the adjusted 5-year survival and event-free survival were 94.4% and 80.0%, respectively. SVR was associated with reduced all-cause mortality (HR 0.15, 95% CI 0.05-0.48, P = 0.002) and clinical disease progression (HR 0.16, 95% CI 0.07-0.36, P < 0.001). The NNT to prevent one death in 5 years declined from 1052 (95% CI 937-1755) at 2% SVR (interferon monotherapy) to 61 (95% CI 54-101) at 35% SVR (peginterferon and ribavirin). At 50% SVR, which might be expected with triple therapy, the estimated NNT was 43 (95% CI 38-71). The NNT to prevent clinical disease progression in one patient in 5 years was 302 (95% CI 271-407), 18 (95% CI 16-24) and 13 (95% CI 11-17) at 2%, 35% and 50% SVR, respectively. In conclusion, the NNT to prevent clinical endpoints among cirrhotic patients with HCV genotype 1 has declined enormously with the improvement of antiviral therapy.

Reliable prediction of clinical outcome in patients with chronic HCV infection and compensated advanced hepatic fibrosis: a validated model using objective and readily available clinical parameters.

OBJECTIVE Reliable tools to predict long-term outcome among patients with well compensated advanced liver disease due to chronic HCV infection are lacking. DESIGN Risk scores for mortality and for cirrhosis-related complications were constructed with Cox regression analysis in a derivation cohort and evaluated in a validation cohort, both including patients with chronic HCV infection and advanced fibrosis. RESULTS In the derivation cohort, 100/405 patients died during a median 8.1 (IQR 5.7-11.1) years of follow-up. Multivariate Cox analyses showed age (HR=1.06, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.09, p<0.001), male sex (HR=1.91, 95% CI 1.10 to 3.29, p=0.021), platelet count (HR=0.91, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.95, p<0.001) and log10 aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio (HR=1.30, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.51, p=0.001) were independently associated with mortality (C statistic=0.78, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.83). In the validation cohort, 58/296 patients with cirrhosis died during a median of 6.6 (IQR 4.4-9.0) years. Among patients with estimated 5-year mortality risks <5%, 5-10% and >10%, the observed 5-year mortality rates in the derivation cohort and validation cohort were 0.9% (95% CI 0.0 to 2.7) and 2.6% (95% CI 0.0 to 6.1), 8.1% (95% CI 1.8 to 14.4) and 8.0% (95% CI 1.3 to 14.7), 21.8% (95% CI 13.2 to 30.4) and 20.9% (95% CI 13.6 to 28.1), respectively (C statistic in validation cohort = 0.76, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.83). The risk score for cirrhosis-related complications also incorporated HCV genotype (C statistic = 0.80, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.83 in the derivation cohort; and 0.74, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.79 in the validation cohort). CONCLUSIONS Prognosis of patients with chronic HCV infection and compensated advanced liver disease can be accurately assessed with risk scores including readily available objective clinical parameters.

Improvement of platelets after SVR among patients with chronic HCV infection and advanced hepatic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS Patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection may develop cirrhosis with portal hypertension, reflected by decreased platelet count and splenomegaly. This retrospective cohort study aimed to assess changes in platelet counts after antiviral therapy among chronic HCV-infected patients with advanced fibrosis. METHODS Platelet counts and spleen sizes were recorded in an international cohort of patients with Ishak 4-6 fibrosis who started antiviral therapy between 1990 and 2003. Last measured platelet counts and spleen sizes were compared to their pre-treatment values (within 6 six months prior to the start of therapy). All registered platelet count measurements from 24 week following cessation of antiviral therapy were included in repeated measurement analyses. RESULTS This study included 464 patients; 353 (76%) had cirrhosis and 187 (40%) attained sustained virological response (SVR). Among patients with SVR, median platelet count, increased by 35 x10(9) /L (IQR 7-62, p<0.001). In comparison, patients without SVR showed a median decline of 17 x10(9) /L (IQR -5-47, p<0.001). In a subgroup of 209 patients, median decrease in spleen size was 1.0 cm (IQR 0.3-2.0) for patients with SVR, while median spleen size increased with 0.6 cm (IQR -0.1-2.0, p<0.001) among those without SVR. The changes in spleen size and platelet count were significantly correlated (R=-0.41, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS Among chronic HCV-infected patients with advanced hepatic fibrosis the platelet counts improved following SVR and the change in platelets correlated with the change in spleen size following antiviral therapy. These results suggest that HCV eradication leads to reduced portal pressure. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.