Estimating and quantifying uncertainties on level sets using the Vorob'ev expectation and deviation with Gaussian process models

Several methods based on Kriging have recently been proposed for calculating a probability of failure involving costly-to-evaluate functions. A closely related problem is to estimate the set of inputs leading to a response exceeding a given threshold. Now, estimating such a level set—and not solely its volume—and quantifying uncertainties on it are not straightforward. Here we use notions from random set theory to obtain an estimate of the level set, together with a quantification of estimation uncertainty. We give explicit formulae in the Gaussian process set-up and provide a consistency result. We then illustrate how space-filling versus adaptive design strategies may sequentially reduce level set estimation uncertainty.

Differences in coronary risk factors, procedural characteristics, mortality and stent thrombosis between two all-comers percutaneous coronary intervention registries from Europe and Japan: a patient-level data analysis of the Bern-Rotterdam and j-Cypher registries

Aims: The reported rate of stent thrombosis (ST) after drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation varies among registries. To investigate differences in baseline characteristics and clinical outcome in European and Japanese all-comers registries, we performed a pooled analysis of patient-level data. Methods and results: The j-Cypher registry (JC) is a multicentre observational study conducted in Japan, including 12,824 patients undergoing SES implantation. From the Bern-Rotterdam registry (BR) enrolled at two academic hospitals in Switzerland and the Netherlands, 3,823 patients with SES were included in the current analysis. Patients in BR were younger, more frequently smokers and presented more frequently with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (MI). Conversely, JC patients more frequently had diabetes and hypertension. At five years, the definite ST rate was significantly lower in JC than BR (JC 1.6% vs. BR 3.3%, p<0.001), while the unadjusted mortality tended to be lower in BR than in JC (BR 13.2% vs. JC 14.4%, log-rank p=0.052). After adjustment, the j-Cypher registry was associated with a significantly lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.56, 95% CI: 0.49-0.64) as well as definite stent thrombosis (HR 0.46, 95% CI: 0.35-0.61). Conclusions: The baseline characteristics of the two large registries were different. After statistical adjustment, JC was associated with lower mortality and ST.

Automated cement segmentation in vertebroplasty

Vertebroplasty is a minimally invasive procedure with many benefits; however, the procedure is not without risks and potential complications, of which leakage of the cement out of the vertebral body and into the surrounding tissues is one of the most serious. Cement can leak into the spinal canal, venous system, soft tissues, lungs and intradiscal space, causing serious neurological complications, tissue necrosis or pulmonary embolism. We present a method for automatic segmentation and tracking of bone cement during vertebroplasty procedures, as a first step towards developing a warning system to avoid cement leakage outside the vertebral body. We show that by using active contours based on level sets the shape of the injected cement can be accurately detected. The model has been improved for segmentation as proposed in our previous work by including a term that restricts the level set function to the vertebral body. The method has been applied to a set of real intra-operative X-ray images and the results show that the algorithm can successfully detect different shapes with blurred and not well-defined boundaries, where the classical active contours segmentation is not applicable. The method has been positively evaluated by physicians.

GoCARB in the Context of an Artificial Pancreas

Background: In an artificial pancreas (AP), the meals are either manually announced or detected and their size estimated from the blood glucose level. Both methods have limitations, which result in suboptimal postprandial glucose control. The GoCARB system is designed to provide the carbohydrate content of meals and is presented within the AP framework. Method: The combined use of GoCARB with a control algorithm is assessed in a series of 12 computer simulations. The simulations are defined according to the type of the control (open or closed loop), the use or not-use of GoCARB and the diabetics’ skills in carbohydrate estimation. Results: For bad estimators without GoCARB, the percentage of the time spent in target range (70-180 mg/dl) during the postprandial period is 22.5% and 66.2% for open and closed loop, respectively. When the GoCARB is used, the corresponding percentages are 99.7% and 99.8%. In case of open loop, the time spent in severe hypoglycemic events (<50 mg/dl) is 33.6% without the GoCARB and is reduced to 0.0% when the GoCARB is used. In case of closed loop, the corresponding percentage is 1.4% without the GoCARB and is reduced to 0.0% with the GoCARB. Conclusion: The use of GoCARB improves the control of postprandial response and glucose profiles especially in the case of open loop. However, the most efficient regulation is achieved by the combined use of the control algorithm and the GoCARB.

Is output performance all about the resources? A fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis of street-level bureaucrats in Switzerland

This article refines Lipsky’s (1980) assertion that lacking resources negatively affect output performance. It uses fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis to analyse the nuanced interplay of contextual and individual determinants of the output performance of veterinary inspectors as street-level bureaucrats in Switzerland. Moving ‘beyond Lipsky’, the study builds on recent theoretical contributions and a systematic comparison across organizational contexts. Against a widespread assumption, output performance is not all about the resources. The impact of perceived available resources hinges on caseloads, which prove to be more decisive. These contextual factors interact with individual attitudes emerging from diverse public accountabilities. The results contextualize the often-emphasized importance of worker-client interaction. In a setting where clients cannot escape the interaction, street-level bureaucrats are not primarily held accountable by them. Studies of output performance should thus sensibly consider gaps between what is being demanded of and offered to street-level bureaucrats, and the latter’s multiple embeddedness.

Daily negative affect and smoking after a self-set quit attempt: The role of dyadic invisible social support in a daily diary study

Objectives Social support receipt from one's partner is assumed to be beneficial for successful smoking cessation. However, support receipt can have costs. Recent research suggests that the most effective support is unnoticed by the receiver (i.e., invisible). Therefore, this study examined the association between everyday levels of dyadic invisible emotional and instrumental support, daily negative affect, and daily smoking after a self-set quit attempt in smoker–non-smoker couples. Methods Overall, 100 smokers (72.0% men, mean age M = 40.48, SD = 9.82) and their non-smoking partners completed electronic diaries from a self-set quit date on for 22 consecutive days, reporting daily invisible emotional and instrumental social support, daily negative affect, and daily smoking. Results Same-day multilevel analyses showed that at the between-person level, higher individual mean levels of invisible emotional and instrumental support were associated with less daily negative affect. In contrast to our assumption, more receipt of invisible emotional and instrumental support was related to more daily cigarettes smoked. Conclusions The findings are in line with previous results, indicating invisible support to have beneficial relations with affect. However, results emphasize the need for further prospective daily diary approaches for understanding the dynamics of invisible support on smoking cessation.

Examining invisible social control as predictor of daily smoking and negative affect after a self-set quit date

Objectives: The dual-effects model of social control proposes that social control leads to better health practices, but also arouses psychological distress. However, findings are inconsistent in relation to health behavior and psychological distress. Recent research suggests that the most effective control is unnoticed by the receiver (i.e., invisible). There is some evidence that invisible social control is beneficial for positive and negative affective reactions. Yet, investigations of the influence of invisible social control on daily smoking and distress have been limited. In daily diaries, we investigated how invisible social control is associated with number of cigarettes smoked and negative affect on a daily basis. Methods: Overall, 99 smokers (72.0% men, mean age M = 40.48, SD = 9.82) and their non-smoking partners completed electronic diaries from a self-set quit date for 22 consecutive days within the hour before going to bed, reporting received and provided social control, daily number of cigarettes smoked, and negative affect. Results: Multilevel analyses indicated that between-person levels of invisible social control were associated with lower negative affect, whereas they were unrelated to number of cigarettes smoked. On days with higher-than-average invisible social control, smokers reported less cigarettes smoked and more negative affect. Conclusions: Between-person level findings indicate that invisible social control can be beneficial for negative affect. However, findings on the within-person level are in line with the assumptions of the dual-effects model of social control: Invisible social control reduced daily smoking and simultaneously increased daily negative affect within person.

Associating optical measurements and estimating orbits of geocentric objects through population-based meta-heuristic methods

Currently several thousands of objects are being tracked in the MEO and GEO regions through optical means. The problem faced in this framework is that of Multiple Target Tracking (MTT). In this context both, the correct associations among the observations and the orbits of the objects have to be determined. The complexity of the MTT problem is defined by its dimension S. The number S corresponds to the number of fences involved in the problem. Each fence consists of a set of observations where each observation belongs to a different object. The S ≥ 3 MTT problem is an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem. There are two general ways to solve this. One way is to seek the optimum solution, this can be achieved by applying a branch-and- bound algorithm. When using these algorithms the problem has to be greatly simplified to keep the computational cost at a reasonable level. Another option is to approximate the solution by using meta-heuristic methods. These methods aim to efficiently explore the different possible combinations so that a reasonable result can be obtained with a reasonable computational effort. To this end several population-based meta-heuristic methods are implemented and tested on simulated optical measurements. With the advent of improved sensors and a heightened interest in the problem of space debris, it is expected that the number of tracked objects will grow by an order of magnitude in the near future. This research aims to provide a method that can treat the correlation and orbit determination problems simultaneously, and is able to efficiently process large data sets with minimal manual intervention.

Firearm legislation and firearm mortality in the USA: a cross-sectional, state-level study.

BACKGROUND In an effort to reduce firearm mortality rates in the USA, US states have enacted a range of firearm laws to either strengthen or deregulate the existing main federal gun control law, the Brady Law. We set out to determine the independent association of different firearm laws with overall firearm mortality, homicide firearm mortality, and suicide firearm mortality across all US states. We also projected the potential reduction of firearm mortality if the three most strongly associated firearm laws were enacted at the federal level. METHODS We constructed a cross-sectional, state-level dataset from Nov 1, 2014, to May 15, 2015, using counts of firearm-related deaths in each US state for the years 2008-10 (stratified by intent [homicide and suicide]) from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System, data about 25 firearm state laws implemented in 2009, and state-specific characteristics such as firearm ownership for 2013, firearm export rates, and non-firearm homicide rates for 2009, and unemployment rates for 2010. Our primary outcome measure was overall firearm-related mortality per 100 000 people in the USA in 2010. We used Poisson regression with robust variances to derive incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% CIs. FINDINGS 31 672 firearm-related deaths occurred in 2010 in the USA (10·1 per 100 000 people; mean state-specific count 631·5 [SD 629·1]). Of 25 firearm laws, nine were associated with reduced firearm mortality, nine were associated with increased firearm mortality, and seven had an inconclusive association. After adjustment for relevant covariates, the three state laws most strongly associated with reduced overall firearm mortality were universal background checks for firearm purchase (multivariable IRR 0·39 [95% CI 0·23-0·67]; p=0·001), ammunition background checks (0·18 [0·09-0·36]; p<0·0001), and identification requirement for firearms (0·16 [0·09-0·29]; p<0·0001). Projected federal-level implementation of universal background checks for firearm purchase could reduce national firearm mortality from 10·35 to 4·46 deaths per 100 000 people, background checks for ammunition purchase could reduce it to 1·99 per 100 000, and firearm identification to 1·81 per 100 000. INTERPRETATION Very few of the existing state-specific firearm laws are associated with reduced firearm mortality, and this evidence underscores the importance of focusing on relevant and effective firearms legislation. Implementation of universal background checks for the purchase of firearms or ammunition, and firearm identification nationally could substantially reduce firearm mortality in the USA. FUNDING None.