Estimating and quantifying uncertainties on level sets using the Vorob'ev expectation and deviation with Gaussian process models

Several methods based on Kriging have recently been proposed for calculating a probability of failure involving costly-to-evaluate functions. A closely related problem is to estimate the set of inputs leading to a response exceeding a given threshold. Now, estimating such a level set—and not solely its volume—and quantifying uncertainties on it are not straightforward. Here we use notions from random set theory to obtain an estimate of the level set, together with a quantification of estimation uncertainty. We give explicit formulae in the Gaussian process set-up and provide a consistency result. We then illustrate how space-filling versus adaptive design strategies may sequentially reduce level set estimation uncertainty.

Automated cement segmentation in vertebroplasty

Vertebroplasty is a minimally invasive procedure with many benefits; however, the procedure is not without risks and potential complications, of which leakage of the cement out of the vertebral body and into the surrounding tissues is one of the most serious. Cement can leak into the spinal canal, venous system, soft tissues, lungs and intradiscal space, causing serious neurological complications, tissue necrosis or pulmonary embolism. We present a method for automatic segmentation and tracking of bone cement during vertebroplasty procedures, as a first step towards developing a warning system to avoid cement leakage outside the vertebral body. We show that by using active contours based on level sets the shape of the injected cement can be accurately detected. The model has been improved for segmentation as proposed in our previous work by including a term that restricts the level set function to the vertebral body. The method has been applied to a set of real intra-operative X-ray images and the results show that the algorithm can successfully detect different shapes with blurred and not well-defined boundaries, where the classical active contours segmentation is not applicable. The method has been positively evaluated by physicians.

Is output performance all about the resources? A fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis of street-level bureaucrats in Switzerland

This article refines Lipsky’s (1980) assertion that lacking resources negatively affect output performance. It uses fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis to analyse the nuanced interplay of contextual and individual determinants of the output performance of veterinary inspectors as street-level bureaucrats in Switzerland. Moving ‘beyond Lipsky’, the study builds on recent theoretical contributions and a systematic comparison across organizational contexts. Against a widespread assumption, output performance is not all about the resources. The impact of perceived available resources hinges on caseloads, which prove to be more decisive. These contextual factors interact with individual attitudes emerging from diverse public accountabilities. The results contextualize the often-emphasized importance of worker-client interaction. In a setting where clients cannot escape the interaction, street-level bureaucrats are not primarily held accountable by them. Studies of output performance should thus sensibly consider gaps between what is being demanded of and offered to street-level bureaucrats, and the latter’s multiple embeddedness.

Tropopause level Rossby wave breaking in the Northern Hemisphere: a feature-based validation of the ECHAM5-HAM climate model

Breaking synoptic-scale Rossby waves (RWB) at the tropopause level are central to the daily weather evolution in the extratropics and the subtropics. RWB leads to pronounced meridional transport of heat, moisture, momentum, and chemical constituents. RWB events are manifest as elongated and narrow structures in the tropopause-level potential vorticity (PV) field. A feature-based validation approach is used to assess the representation of Northern Hemisphere RWB in present-day climate simulations carried out with the ECHAM5-HAM climate model at three different resolutions (T42L19, T63L31, and T106L31) against the ERA-40 reanalysis data set. An objective identification algorithm extracts RWB events from the isentropic PV field and allows quantifying the frequency of occurrence of RWB. The biases in the frequency of RWB are then compared to biases in the time mean tropopause-level jet wind speeds. The ECHAM5-HAM model captures the location of the RWB frequency maxima in the Northern Hemisphere at all three resolutions. However, at coarse resolution (T42L19) the overall frequency of RWB, i.e. the frequency averaged over all seasons and the entire hemisphere, is underestimated by 28%.The higher-resolution simulations capture the overall frequency of RWB much better, with a minor difference between T63L31 and T106L31 (frequency errors of −3.5 and 6%, respectively). The number of large-size RWB events is significantly underestimated by the T42L19 experiment and well represented in the T106L31 simulation. On the local scale, however, significant differences to ERA-40 are found in the higher-resolution simulations. These differences are regionally confined and vary with the season. The most striking difference between T106L31 and ERA-40 is that ECHAM5-HAM overestimates the frequency of RWB in the subtropical Atlantic in all seasons except for spring. This bias maximum is accompanied by an equatorward extension of the subtropical westerlies.

Predicting daily smoking around a quit date : Volitional processes at the inter- and intraindividual level

Background: The health action process approach (hapa) is a well-established model in predicting health behavior and assumes that volitional processes are important for effective behavioral change. however, only few studies have so far tested associations on the intraindividual level. thus, this study examined the inter- and intraindividual associations between volitional predictors and daily smoking around a quit attempt. method: overall, 105 smokers completed daily electronic questionnaires 10 days before and 21 days after a self-set quit date, including measures of intentions, self-efficacy, planning, action control and numbers of cigarettes smoked. multilevel analysis was applied. findings: at the interindividual level, higher mean levels of volitional predictors across the 32 days were associated with less numbers of cigarettes smoked. negative associations emerged also at the intraindividual level, indicating that on days with higher intentions, self-efficacy, planning and action control than usual, less cigarettes were smoked. moreover, these effects were stronger after the quit date than before the quit date. intentions and action control emerged as most powerful predictors at the intraindividual level. discussion: findings confirm assumptions of the hapa and emphasize the importance of volitional processes at the inter- and intraindividual level in the context of quitting smoking.

The macro level effects of gender - (un)fair language in Polish

A recent analysis of more than 100 countries found that the extent to which their languages grammatically allowed for an asymmetric treatment of men and women correlated with socio-economic indices of gender inequality (Prewitt-Freilino, Caswell, & Laakso, 2012). In a set of four studies we examine whether the availability of feminine forms as indicated by the most recent dictionaries (1) predicts the actual percentage of women and gender wage gap for all professions registered in Poland; (2) predicts the longitudinal pattern of use of the occupational job-titles; (3) relates to social perception of the sample of 150 professions.

A new model construction by making a detour via intuitionistic theories I: Operational set theory without choice is Π1-equivalent to KP

We introduce a version of operational set theory, OST−, without a choice operation, which has a machinery for Δ0Δ0 separation based on truth functions and the separation operator, and a new kind of applicative set theory, so-called weak explicit set theory WEST, based on Gödel operations. We show that both the theories and Kripke–Platek set theory KPKP with infinity are pairwise Π1Π1 equivalent. We also show analogous assertions for subtheories with ∈-induction restricted in various ways and for supertheories extended by powerset, beta, limit and Mahlo operations. Whereas the upper bound is given by a refinement of inductive definition in KPKP, the lower bound is by a combination, in a specific way, of realisability, (intuitionistic) forcing and negative interpretations. Thus, despite interpretability between classical theories, we make “a detour via intuitionistic theories”. The combined interpretation, seen as a model construction in the sense of Visser's miniature model theory, is a new way of construction for classical theories and could be said the third kind of model construction ever used which is non-trivial on the logical connective level, after generic extension à la Cohen and Krivine's classical realisability model.

Invisible social control as predictor of daily negative affect and smoking after a self-set quit date

The dual-effects model of social control proposes that social control leads to increased psychological distress but also to better health practices. However, findings are inconsistent, and recent research suggests that the most effective control is unnoticed by the receiver (i. e., invisible). Yet, investigations of the influence of invisible control on daily negative affect and smoking have been limited. Using daily diaries, we investigated how invisible social control was associated with negative affect and smoking. Overall, 100 smokers (72.0 % men, age M = 40.48, SD = 9.82) and their nonsmoking partners completed electronic diaries from a self-set quit date for 22 consecutive days, reporting received and provided social control, negative affect, and daily smoking. We found in multilevel analyses of the within-person process that on days with higher-than-average invisible control, smokers reported more negative affect and fewer cigarettes smoked. Findings are in line with the assumptions of the dual-effects model of social control: Invisible social control increased daily negative affect and simultaneously reduced smoking at the within-person level.

Daily negative affect and smoking after a self-set quit attempt: The role of dyadic invisible social support in a daily diary study

Objectives Social support receipt from one's partner is assumed to be beneficial for successful smoking cessation. However, support receipt can have costs. Recent research suggests that the most effective support is unnoticed by the receiver (i.e., invisible). Therefore, this study examined the association between everyday levels of dyadic invisible emotional and instrumental support, daily negative affect, and daily smoking after a self-set quit attempt in smoker–non-smoker couples. Methods Overall, 100 smokers (72.0% men, mean age M = 40.48, SD = 9.82) and their non-smoking partners completed electronic diaries from a self-set quit date on for 22 consecutive days, reporting daily invisible emotional and instrumental social support, daily negative affect, and daily smoking. Results Same-day multilevel analyses showed that at the between-person level, higher individual mean levels of invisible emotional and instrumental support were associated with less daily negative affect. In contrast to our assumption, more receipt of invisible emotional and instrumental support was related to more daily cigarettes smoked. Conclusions The findings are in line with previous results, indicating invisible support to have beneficial relations with affect. However, results emphasize the need for further prospective daily diary approaches for understanding the dynamics of invisible support on smoking cessation.

Examining invisible social control as predictor of daily smoking and negative affect after a self-set quit date

Objectives: The dual-effects model of social control proposes that social control leads to better health practices, but also arouses psychological distress. However, findings are inconsistent in relation to health behavior and psychological distress. Recent research suggests that the most effective control is unnoticed by the receiver (i.e., invisible). There is some evidence that invisible social control is beneficial for positive and negative affective reactions. Yet, investigations of the influence of invisible social control on daily smoking and distress have been limited. In daily diaries, we investigated how invisible social control is associated with number of cigarettes smoked and negative affect on a daily basis. Methods: Overall, 99 smokers (72.0% men, mean age M = 40.48, SD = 9.82) and their non-smoking partners completed electronic diaries from a self-set quit date for 22 consecutive days within the hour before going to bed, reporting received and provided social control, daily number of cigarettes smoked, and negative affect. Results: Multilevel analyses indicated that between-person levels of invisible social control were associated with lower negative affect, whereas they were unrelated to number of cigarettes smoked. On days with higher-than-average invisible social control, smokers reported less cigarettes smoked and more negative affect. Conclusions: Between-person level findings indicate that invisible social control can be beneficial for negative affect. However, findings on the within-person level are in line with the assumptions of the dual-effects model of social control: Invisible social control reduced daily smoking and simultaneously increased daily negative affect within person.

Institutions for sustainable governance of forests: Equity, robustness and cross-level interactions in Mawlyngbna, Meghalaya, India

This study adopts Ostrom’s Social-Ecological Systems (SES) framework in empirical fieldwork to explain how local forestry institutions affect forest ecosystems and social equity in the community of Mawlyngbna in North-East India. Data was collected through 26 semi-structured interviews, participatory timeline development, policy documents, direct observation, periodicals, transect walks, and a concurrent forest-ecological study in the village. Results show that Mawlyngbna's forests provide important sources of livelihood benefits for the villagers. However, ecological disturbance and diversity varies among the different forest ownership types and forest-based livelihood benefits are inequitably distributed. Based on a bounded rationality approach, our analysis proposes a set of causal mechanisms that trace these observed social-ecological outcomes to the attributes of the resource system, resource units, actors and governance system. We analyse opportunities and constraints of interactions between the village, regional, and state levels. We discuss how Ostrom’s design principles for community-based resource governance inform the explanation of robustness but have a blind spot in explaining social equity. We report experiences made using the SES framework in empirical fieldwork. We conclude that mapping cross-level interactions in the SES framework needs conceptual refinement and that explaining social equity of forest governance needs theoretical advances.

Firearm legislation and firearm mortality in the USA: a cross-sectional, state-level study.

BACKGROUND In an effort to reduce firearm mortality rates in the USA, US states have enacted a range of firearm laws to either strengthen or deregulate the existing main federal gun control law, the Brady Law. We set out to determine the independent association of different firearm laws with overall firearm mortality, homicide firearm mortality, and suicide firearm mortality across all US states. We also projected the potential reduction of firearm mortality if the three most strongly associated firearm laws were enacted at the federal level. METHODS We constructed a cross-sectional, state-level dataset from Nov 1, 2014, to May 15, 2015, using counts of firearm-related deaths in each US state for the years 2008-10 (stratified by intent [homicide and suicide]) from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System, data about 25 firearm state laws implemented in 2009, and state-specific characteristics such as firearm ownership for 2013, firearm export rates, and non-firearm homicide rates for 2009, and unemployment rates for 2010. Our primary outcome measure was overall firearm-related mortality per 100 000 people in the USA in 2010. We used Poisson regression with robust variances to derive incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% CIs. FINDINGS 31 672 firearm-related deaths occurred in 2010 in the USA (10·1 per 100 000 people; mean state-specific count 631·5 [SD 629·1]). Of 25 firearm laws, nine were associated with reduced firearm mortality, nine were associated with increased firearm mortality, and seven had an inconclusive association. After adjustment for relevant covariates, the three state laws most strongly associated with reduced overall firearm mortality were universal background checks for firearm purchase (multivariable IRR 0·39 [95% CI 0·23-0·67]; p=0·001), ammunition background checks (0·18 [0·09-0·36]; p<0·0001), and identification requirement for firearms (0·16 [0·09-0·29]; p<0·0001). Projected federal-level implementation of universal background checks for firearm purchase could reduce national firearm mortality from 10·35 to 4·46 deaths per 100 000 people, background checks for ammunition purchase could reduce it to 1·99 per 100 000, and firearm identification to 1·81 per 100 000. INTERPRETATION Very few of the existing state-specific firearm laws are associated with reduced firearm mortality, and this evidence underscores the importance of focusing on relevant and effective firearms legislation. Implementation of universal background checks for the purchase of firearms or ammunition, and firearm identification nationally could substantially reduce firearm mortality in the USA. FUNDING None.