Firms, do you know your currency risk exposure? Survey results

This paper surveys the currency risk management practices of Swiss industrial corporations. We find tha industrials do not quantify their currency risk exposure and investigate possible reasons. One possibility is that firms do not think they need to know because they use on-balance-sheet instruments to protect themselves before and after currency rates reach troublesome levels. This is puzzling because a rough estimate of at least cash flow exposure is not a prohibitive task and could be helpful. It is also puzzling that firms use currency derivatives to hedge/insure individual short-term transactions, without apparently trying to estimate aggregate transaction exposure.

Interstellar Flow and Temperature Determination with IBEX: Robustness and Sensitivity to Systematic Effects

The Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) samples the interstellar neutral (ISN) gas flow of several species every year from December through late March when the Earth moves into the incoming flow. The first quantitative analyses of these data resulted in a narrow tube in four-dimensional interstellar parameter space, which couples speed, flow latitude, flow longitude, and temperature, and center values with approximately 3° larger longitude and 3 km s⁻¹ lower speed, but with temperatures similar to those obtained from observations by the Ulysses spacecraft. IBEX has now recorded six years of ISN flow observations, providing a large database over increasing solar activity and using varying viewing strategies. In this paper, we evaluate systematic effects that are important for the ISN flow vector and temperature determination. We find that all models in use return ISN parameters well within the observational uncertainties and that the derived ISN flow direction is resilient against uncertainties in the ionization rate. We establish observationally an effective IBEX-Lo pointing uncertainty of ±0°18 in spin angle and confirm an uncertainty of ±0°1 in longitude. We also show that the IBEX viewing strategy with different spin-axis orientations minimizes the impact of several systematic uncertainties, and thus improves the robustness of the measurement. The Helium Warm Breeze has likely contributed substantially to the somewhat different center values of the ISN flow vector. By separating the flow vector and temperature determination, we can mitigate these effects on the analysis, which returns an ISN flow vector very close to the Ulysses results, but with a substantially higher temperature. Due to coupling with the ISN flow speed along the ISN parameter tube, we provide the temperature Tvisn∞=8710+440/-680 K for Visn∞=26 km s⁻¹ for comparison, where most of the uncertainty is systematic and likely due to the presence of the Warm Breeze.

Trade Law and Responsible Investment

There is broad international agreement that investment flows to the agricultural sector in developing countries need to be increased. In addition, there is broad agreement that such investments need to be responsible, and that they will only be responsible and beneficial to poor people if they contribute to the prudent development of the agricultural sector. Less studied is the link between responsible investment and trade. In this brief, the assumption is made that responsible investment flows presume a responsible trade regime, i.e. a trade regime that contributes to the prudent development of the agricultural sector in developing countries. Such a prudent, sustainable trade regime will promote investments in the agricultural sector that are responsible to the people involved and to the environment. It builds the “channel” through which investments flow. By contrast, an unsustainable trade framework will create an investment climate that promotes problematic investment practices.

Ultrasound assessment of detrusor thickness in men-can it predict bladder outlet obstruction and replace pressure flow study?

PURPOSE: We estimated the diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound detrusor thickness measurement for BOO and investigated whether this method can replace PFS for the diagnosis of BOO in some patients with lower urinary tract symptoms. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Detrusor thickness was measured by linear ultrasound (7.5 MHz) at a filling volume of greater than 50% of cystometric capacity in 102 men undergoing PFS for LUTS. All patients with prior treatment for bladder outlet obstruction and those with underlying neurological disorders were excluded from analysis. Detrusor thickness was correlated with PFS data. Obstruction was defined according to the Abrams-Griffiths nomogram. RESULTS: Detrusor thickness was significantly higher (p <0.0001) in obstructed (61 cases, median detrusor thickness 2.7 mm, IQR 2.4 to 3.3) compared to unobstructed (18 cases, median detrusor thickness 1.7 mm, IQR 1.5 to 2) as well as equivocal (23 cases, median detrusor thickness 1.8 mm, IQR 1.5 to 2.2) cases. A weak to medium Spearman correlation was found between detrusor thickness and PFS parameters. For a diagnosis of BOO, detrusor thickness of 2.9 mm or greater had a positive predictive value of 100%, a negative predictive value of 54%, specificity of 100% and sensitivity of 43%. ROC analysis revealed that detrusor thickness had a high predictive value for BOO with an AUC of 0.88 (95% CI 0.81-0.94). CONCLUSIONS: In men with LUTS without prior treatment and/or neurological disorders, ultrasonographically assessed detrusor thickness 2.9 mm or greater has a high predictive value for BOO and can replace PFS for the diagnosis of BOO. However, this cutoff value needs to be validated in a larger study population.

Very short telomere length by flow fluorescence in situ hybridization identifies patients with dyskeratosis congenita

Dyskeratosis congenita (DC) is an inherited bone marrow failure syndrome in which the known susceptibility genes (DKC1, TERC, and TERT) belong to the telomere maintenance pathway; patients with DC have very short telomeres. We used multicolor flow fluorescence in situ hybridization analysis of median telomere length in total blood leukocytes, granulocytes, lymphocytes, and several lymphocyte subsets to confirm the diagnosis of DC, distinguish patients with DC from unaffected family members, identify clinically silent DC carriers, and discriminate between patients with DC and those with other bone marrow failure disorders. We defined "very short" telomeres as below the first percentile measured among 400 healthy control subjects over the entire age range. Diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of very short telomeres for DC were more than 90% for total lymphocytes, CD45RA+/CD20- naive T cells, and CD20+ B cells. Granulocyte and total leukocyte assays were not specific; CD45RA- memory T cells and CD57+ NK/NKT were not sensitive. We observed very short telomeres in a clinically normal family member who subsequently developed DC. We propose adding leukocyte subset flow fluorescence in situ hybridization telomere length measurement to the evaluation of patients and families suspected to have DC, because the correct diagnosis will substantially affect patient management.

Spectral waveform analysis of intranodal arterial blood flow in abnormally large superficial lymph nodes in dogs

Objective-To evaluate pulsed-wave Doppler spectral parameters as a method for distinguishing between neoplastic and inflammatory peripheral lymphadenopathy in dogs. Sample Population-40 superficial lymph nodes from 33 dogs with peripheral lymphadenopathy. Procedures-3 Doppler spectral tracings were recorded from each node. Spectral Doppler analysis including assessment of the resistive index, peak systolic velocity-to-end diastolic velocity (S:D) ratio, diastolic notch velocity-to-peak systolic velocity (N:S) ratio, and end diastolic velocity-to-diastolic notch velocity ratio was performed for each tracing. Several calculation methods were used to determine the Doppler indices for each lymph node. After the ultrasonographic examination, fine needle aspirates or excisional biopsy specimens of the examined lymph nodes were obtained, and lymphadenopathy was classified as either inflammatory or neoplastic (lymphomatous or metastatic) via cytologic or histologic examination. Results of Doppler analysis were compared with cytologic or histopathologic findings. Results-The Doppler index with the highest diagnostic accuracy was the S:D ratio calculated from the first recorded tracing; a cutoff value of 3.22 yielded sensitivity of 91%, specificity of 100%, and negative predictive value of 89% for detection of neoplasia. Overall diagnostic accuracy was 95%. At a sensitivity of 100%, the most accurate index was the N:S ratio calculated from the first recorded tracing; a cutoff value of 0.45 yielded specificity of 67%, positive predictive value of 81%, and overall diagnostic accuracy of 86.5%. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-Results suggested that noninvasive Doppler spectral analysis may be useful in the diagnosis of neoplastic versus inflammatory peripheral lymphadenopathy in dogs.

Quantitative stress echocardiography in coronary artery disease using contrast-based myocardial blood flow measurements: prospective comparison with coronary angiography

AIM: To test whether quantitative stress echocardiography using contrast-based myocardial blood flow (MBF, ml x min(-1) x g(-1)) measurements can detect coronary artery disease in humans. METHODS: 48 patients eligible for pharmacological stress testing by myocardial contrast echocardiography (MCE) and willing to undergo subsequent coronary angiography were prospectively enrolled in the study. Baseline and adenosine-induced (140 microg x kg(-1) x min(-1)) hyperaemic MBF was analysed according to a three-coronary-artery-territory model. Vascular territories were categorised into three groups with increasing stenosis severity defined as percentage diameter reduction by quantitative coronary angiography. RESULTS: Myocardial blood flow reserve (MBFR)-that is, the ratio of hyperaemic to baseline MBF, was obtained in 128 (89%) territories. Mean (SD) baseline MBF was 1.073 (0.395) ml x min(-1) x g(-1) and did not differ between territories supplied by coronary arteries with mild (<50% stenosis), moderate (50%-74% stenosis) or severe (>or=75% stenosis) disease. Mean (SD) hyperaemic MBF and MBFR were 2.509 (1.078) ml x min(-1) x g(-1) and 2.54 (1.03), respectively, and decreased linearly (r2 = 0.21 and r2 = 0.39) with stenosis severity. ROC analysis revealed that a territorial MBFR <1.94 detected >or=50% stenosis with 89% sensitivity and 92% specificity. CONCLUSION: Quantitative stress testing based on MBF measurements derived from contrast echocardiography is a new method for the non-invasive and reliable assessment of coronary artery disease in humans.

Isotype-specific detection of ABO blood group antibodies using a novel flow cytometric method

Several methods to detect anti-A/B antibodies based on haemagglutination and haemolysis have been described. These methods measure predominantly anti-A/B immunoglobulin (Ig)M, whereas anti-A/B IgG and IgG subclasses are less well examined. We established a flow cytometry method (ABO-fluorescence-activated cell sorting; ABO-FACS) to quantify binding of anti-A/B IgM, IgG and IgG subclasses to human A or B red blood cells. Anti-A/B IgM were present in the majority of 120 blood donors, as expected from blood group typing. The sensitivity and specificity of anti-A/B IgM to predict the blood group was 93% and 96% respectively. Anti-A/B IgG was found in 34/38 blood group O samples (89%). Anti-B IgG in blood group A or anti-A IgG in blood group B was present in 4/28 (14%) and 1/28 (4%) samples, respectively, and absent in 26 AB sera. IgG2 was the predominant IgG subclass. The correlation of anti-A/B IgM and IgG in the ABO-FACS with haemagglutination titres was 0.870 and 0.783, respectively (n = 240; P < 0.001) whereas the comparison of ABO-FACS with ABO-enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was less significant. In conclusion, ABO-FACS is a valid method to quantify anti-A/B IgM, IgG and IgG subclasses. It opens the possibility of isotype-specific monitoring of anti-A/B antibodies levels after ABO-incompatible solid organ and stem cell transplantation.

Triangle-programmed coulometric nanotitrations completed by continuous flow with potentiometric detection

Coulometric nanotitrations were realized in a microchannel system using a continuous-flow titration technique with a triangle current-time profile. Redox and acid-base titrations were carried out on Fe(II) and nitric acid samples, respectively, with the same nanotitrator device. A linear relation between the concentration and the coulometric current transferred to the solution was found. The advantages of this universally applicable nanotitrator are fast response, low sample volume, high sensitivity, and high reproducibility as well as the convenience of handling an automated analyzer of the flow-through type.

Cost-effectiveness of percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with stable coronary artery disease and abnormal fractional flow reserve

BACKGROUND The Fractional Flow Reserve Versus Angiography for Multivessel Evaluation (FAME) 2 trial demonstrated a significant reduction in subsequent coronary revascularization among patients with stable angina and at least 1 coronary lesion with a fractional flow reserve ≤0.80 who were randomized to percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) compared with best medical therapy. The economic and quality-of-life implications of PCI in the setting of an abnormal fractional flow reserve are unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS We calculated the cost of the index hospitalization based on initial resource use and follow-up costs based on Medicare reimbursements. We assessed patient utility using the EQ-5D health survey with US weights at baseline and 1 month and projected quality-adjusted life-years assuming a linear decline over 3 years in the 1-month utility improvements. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio based on cumulative costs over 12 months. Initial costs were significantly higher for PCI in the setting of an abnormal fractional flow reserve than with medical therapy ($9927 versus $3900, P<0.001), but the $6027 difference narrowed over 1-year follow-up to $2883 (P<0.001), mostly because of the cost of subsequent revascularization procedures. Patient utility was improved more at 1 month with PCI than with medical therapy (0.054 versus 0.001 units, P<0.001). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of PCI was $36 000 per quality-adjusted life-year, which was robust in bootstrap replications and in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS PCI of coronary lesions with reduced fractional flow reserve improves outcomes and appears economically attractive compared with best medical therapy among patients with stable angina.

Investigating the sensitivity of hurricane intensity and trajectory to sea surface temperatures using the regional model WRF

The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the hurricane characteristics are investigated in a set of sensitivity experiments employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The idealised experiments are performed for the case of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The first set of sensitivity experiments with basin-wide changes of the SST magnitude shows that the intensity goes along with changes in the SST, i.e., an increase in SST leads to an intensification of Katrina. Additionally, the trajectory is shifted to the west (east), with increasing (decreasing) SSTs. The main reason is a strengthening of the background flow. The second set of experiments investigates the influence of Loop Current eddies idealised by localised SST anomalies. The intensity of Hurricane Katrina is enhanced with increasing SSTs close to the core of a tropical cyclone. Negative nearby SST anomalies reduce the intensity. The trajectory only changes if positive SST anomalies are located west or north of the hurricane centre. In this case the hurricane is attracted by the SST anomaly which causes an additional moisture source and increased vertical winds.

Spatial variability and potential impacts of climate change on flood and debris flow hazard zone mapping and implications for risk management

The main goals of this study were to identifythe alpine torrent catchments that are sensitive to climatic changes and to assess the robustness of the methods for the elaboration of flood and debris flow hazard zone maps to specific effects of climate changes. In this study, a procedure for the identification and localization of torrent catchments in which the climate scenarios will modify the hazard situation was developed. In two case studies, the impacts of a potential increase of precipitation intensities to the delimited hazard zones were studied. The identification and localization of the torrent and river catchments, where unfavourable changes in the hazard situation occur, could eliminate speculative and unnecessary measures against the impacts of climate changes like a general enlargement of hazard zones or a general over dimensioning of protection structures for the whole territory. The results showed a high spatial variability of the sensitivity of catchments to climate changes. In sensitive catchments, the sediment management in alpine torrents will meet future challenges due to a higher rate for sediment removal from retention basins. The case studies showed a remarkable increase of the areas affected by floods and debris flow when considering possible future precipitation intensities in hazard mapping. But, the calculated increase in extent of future hazard zones lay within the uncertainty of the methods used today for the delimitation of the hazard zones. Thus, the consideration of the uncertainties laying in the methods for the elaboration of hazard zone maps in the torrent and river catchments sensitive to climate changes would provide a useful instrument for the consideration of potential future climate conditions. The study demonstrated that weak points in protection structures in future will become more important in risk management activities.