Führungsinformationssysteme unter Nutzung der unscharfen Logik – Fallbeispiel coop@home

Entscheidungsfragen lassen sich bei anspruchsvollen Managementaufgaben nicht immer scharf mit ja oder nein beantworten. Vielmehr geht es um ein Abwägen unterschiedlicher Einflussfaktoren und die Antwort für eine Problemlösung lautet oft ‚ja unter Vorbehalt' oder ‚sowohl als auch´. Die Antwort ist unscharf und kann Werte zwischen 0 und 1 annehmen. Die unscharfe Logik entspricht der menschlichen Wahrnehmung. Sie vermag neben quantitativen Grössen qualitative Einschätzungen mit einzubeziehen. Um Entscheidungsfindung bei vagem Sachverhalt in Informationssystemen zu ermöglichen, müssen Managementmethoden mit unscharfen Konzepten erweitert werden. Der Beitrag führt in die unscharfe Logik ein und zeigt deren Potenzial anhand der unscharfen Scoringmethode fRFM (fuzzy Recency-, Frequency- und Monetary-Werte) auf, die beim schweizerischen Detailhändler coop@home testweise angewendet wurde.

Critical core mass for enriched envelopes: the role of H2O condensation

Context. Within the core accretion scenario of planetary formation, most simulations performed so far always assume the accreting envelope to have a solar composition. From the study of meteorite showers on Earth and numerical simulations, we know that planetesimals must undergo thermal ablation and disruption when crossing a protoplanetary envelope. Thus, once the protoplanet has acquired an atmosphere, not all planetesimals reach the core intact, i.e. the primordial envelope (mainly H and He) gets enriched in volatiles and silicates from the planetesimals. This change of envelope composition during the formation can have a significant effect on the final atmospheric composition and on the formation timescale of giant planets. Aims. We investigate the physical implications of considering the envelope enrichment of protoplanets due to the disruption of icy planetesimals during their way to the core. Particular focus is placed on the effect on the critical core mass for envelopes where condensation of water can occur. Methods. Internal structure models are numerically solved with the implementation of updated opacities for all ranges of metallicities and the software Chemical Equilibrium with Applications to compute the equation of state. This package computes the chemical equilibrium for an arbitrary mixture of gases and allows the condensation of some species, including water. This means that the latent heat of phase transitions is consistently incorporated in the total energy budget. Results. The critical core mass is found to decrease significantly when an enriched envelope composition is considered in the internal structure equations. A particularly strong reduction of the critical core mass is obtained for planets whose envelope metallicity is larger than Z approximate to 0.45 when the outer boundary conditions are suitable for condensation of water to occur in the top layers of the atmosphere. We show that this effect is qualitatively preserved even when the atmosphere is out of chemical equilibrium. Conclusions. Our results indicate that the effect of water condensation in the envelope of protoplanets can severely affect the critical core mass, and should be considered in future studies.

Internal Models, Vestibular Cognition, and Mental Imagery: Conceptual Considerations

Vestibular cognition has recently gained attention. Despite numerous experimental and clinical demonstrations, it is not yet clear what vestibular cognition really is. For future research in vestibular cognition, adopting a computational approach will make it easier to explore the underlying mech- anisms. Indeed, most modeling approaches in vestibular science include a top-down or a priori component. We review recent Bayesian optimal observer models, and discuss in detail the conceptual value of prior assumptions, likelihood and posterior estimates for research in vestibular cognition. We then consider forward models in vestibular processing, which are required in order to distinguish between sensory input that is induced by active self-motion, and sensory input that is due to passive self-motion. We suggest that forward models are used not only in the service of estimating sensory states but they can also be drawn upon in an offline mode (e.g., spatial perspective transformations), in which interaction with sensory input is not desired. A computational approach to vestibular cogni- tion will help to discover connections across studies, and it will provide a more coherent framework for investigating vestibular cognition.

Predictive ability of a modified Örebro Musculoskeletal Pain Questionnaire in an acute/subacute low back pain working population

The original 'Örebro Musculoskeletal Pain Questionnaire' (original-ÖMPQ) has been shown to have limitations in practicality, factor structure, face and content validity. This study addressed these concerns by modifying its content producing the 'Örebro Musculoskeletal Screening Questionnaire' (ÖMSQ). The ÖMSQ and original-ÖMPQ were tested concurrently in acute/subacute low back pain working populations (pilot n = 44, main n = 106). The ÖMSQ showed improved face and content validity, which broadened potential application, and improved practicality with two-thirds less missing responses. High reliability (0.975, p < 0.05, ICC: 2.1), criterion validity (Spearman's r = 0.97) and internal consistency (α = 0.84) were achieved, as were predictive ability cut-off scores from ROC curves (112-120 ÖMSQ-points), statistically different ÖMSQ scores (p < 0.001) for each outcome trait, and a strong correlation with recovery time (Spearman's, r = 0.71). The six-component factor structure reflected the constructs originally proposed. The ÖMSQ can be substituted for the original-ÖMPQ in this population. Further research will assess its applicability in broader populations.

Handbook of LHC Higgs Cross Sections: 3. Higgs Properties. Report of the LHC Higgs Cross Section Working Group

This Report summarizes the results of the activities in 2012 and the first half of 2013 of the LHC Higgs Cross Section Working Group. The main goal of the working group was to present the state of the art of Higgs Physics at the LHC, integrating all new results that have appeared in the last few years. This report follows the first working group report Handbook of LHC Higgs Cross Sections: 1. Inclusive Observables (CERN-2011-002) and the second working group report Handbook of LHC Higgs Cross Sections: 2. Differential Distributions (CERN-2012-002). After the discovery of a Higgs boson at the LHC in mid-2012 this report focuses on refined prediction of Standard Model (SM) Higgs phenomenology around the experimentally observed value of 125-126 GeV, refined predictions for heavy SM-like Higgs bosons as well as predictions in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model and first steps to go beyond these models. The other main focus is on the extraction of the characteristics and properties of the newly discovered particle such as couplings to SM particles, spin and CP-quantum numbers etc.

Theoretical models of planetary system formation: mass vs. semi-major axis

Context. Planet formation models have been developed during the past years to try to reproduce what has been observed of both the solar system and the extrasolar planets. Some of these models have partially succeeded, but they focus on massive planets and, for the sake of simplicity, exclude planets belonging to planetary systems. However, more and more planets are now found in planetary systems. This tendency, which is a result of radial velocity, transit, and direct imaging surveys, seems to be even more pronounced for low-mass planets. These new observations require improving planet formation models, including new physics, and considering the formation of systems. Aims: In a recent series of papers, we have presented some improvements in the physics of our models, focussing in particular on the internal structure of forming planets, and on the computation of the excitation state of planetesimals and their resulting accretion rate. In this paper, we focus on the concurrent effect of the formation of more than one planet in the same protoplanetary disc and show the effect, in terms of architecture and composition of this multiplicity. Methods: We used an N-body calculation including collision detection to compute the orbital evolution of a planetary system. Moreover, we describe the effect of competition for accretion of gas and solids, as well as the effect of gravitational interactions between planets. Results: We show that the masses and semi-major axes of planets are modified by both the effect of competition and gravitational interactions. We also present the effect of the assumed number of forming planets in the same system (a free parameter of the model), as well as the effect of the inclination and eccentricity damping. We find that the fraction of ejected planets increases from nearly 0 to 8% as we change the number of embryos we seed the system with from 2 to 20 planetary embryos. Moreover, our calculations show that, when considering planets more massive than ~5 M⊕, simulations with 10 or 20 planetary embryos statistically give the same results in terms of mass function and period distribution.

From school to work: A comprehensive model of work-related motivation in the transition to working life.

Motivation is a core concept to understand work related outcomes and vocational pursuits. However, existing research mostly focused on specific aspects of motivation, such as goals or self-efficacy beliefs, while falling short of adequately addressing more complex and integrative notions of motivation. Advancing the current state of research, we draw from Motivational Systems Theory and a model of proactive motivation to propose a comprehensive model of work-related motivation. Specifically, we define motivation as a system of mutually related factors consisting of goals, emotions, and personal agency beliefs, comprised by capability beliefs and context evaluations. Adapting this model of motivation to the school-to-work transition, we postulate that this motivational system is affected by different social, personal, and environmental variables, for example social support, the presence of role-models, personality traits, and scholastic achievement. We further expect that students with more autonomous work-related goals, expectations of more positive emotional experiences in their future working life, fewer perceived barriers to their career development, and higher work-related self-efficacy beliefs would be more successful in their transition from school to work. We also propose that goal-directed engagement acts as a partial mediator in the relationship between motivation and a successful transition. Finally, we hypothesize that work-related motivation while in school will have meaningful effects on positive outcomes while in vocational training, as represented by more work engagement, higher career commitment, job satisfaction, and lower intentions to quit training. In sum, we advance the point that the adaptation of a broader concept of work-related motivation in the school-to-work transition would result in more powerful predictions of success in this transition and would enhance scientific research and interventions in career development and counselling practice.

Three-dimensional printing creates models for surgical planning of aortic valve replacement after previous coronary bypass grafting.

PURPOSE Resternotomy for aortic valve replacement in patients with previous coronary artery bypass grafting and an internal mammary artery graft may be a surgical problem. Thus, we are exploring the effect of using rapid prototyping techniques for surgical planning and intraoperative orientation during aortic valve replacement after previous coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). DESCRIPTION As a proof of concept, we studied a patient who had undergone CABG 5 years earlier. At that time the patient received a left internal mammary artery graft to the left anterior descending artery and a venous graft to the right coronary artery. Now the patient required aortic valve replacement due to symptomatic aortic valve stenosis. The left internal mammary artery bypass and the right coronary artery bypass were patent and showed good flow in the angiography. The patient was examined by 128-slice computed tomography. The image data were visualized and reconstructed. Afterwards, a replica showing the anatomic structures was fabricated using a rapid prototyping machine. EVALUATION Using data derived from 128-slice computed tomography angiography linked to proprietary software, we were able to create three-dimensional reconstructions of the vascular anatomy after the previous CABG. The models were sterilized and taken to the operating theatre for orientation during the surgical procedure. CONCLUSIONS Stereolithographic replicas are helpful for choosing treatment strategies in surgical planning and for intraoperative orientation during reoperations of patients with previous CABG.

Efficacy of a dilemma-focused intervention for unipolar depression: study protocol for a multicenter randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Depression is one of the more severe and serious health problems because of its morbidity, disabling effects and for its societal and economic burden. Despite the variety of existing pharmacological and psychological treatments, most of the cases evolve with only partial remission, relapse and recurrence.Cognitive models have contributed significantly to the understanding of unipolar depression and its psychological treatment. However, success is only partial and many authors affirm the need to improve those models and also the treatment programs derived from them. One of the issues that requires further elaboration is the difficulty these patients experience in responding to treatment and in maintaining therapeutic gains across time without relapse or recurrence. Our research group has been working on the notion of cognitive conflict viewed as personal dilemmas according to personal construct theory. We use a novel method for identifying those conflicts using the repertory grid technique (RGT). Preliminary results with depressive patients show that about 90% of them have one or more of those conflicts. This fact might explain the blockage and the difficult progress of these patients, especially the more severe and/or chronic. These results justify the need for specific interventions focused on the resolution of these internal conflicts. This study aims to empirically test the hypothesis that an intervention focused on the dilemma(s) specifically detected for each patient will enhance the efficacy of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for depression. DESIGN: A therapy manual for a dilemma-focused intervention will be tested using a randomized clinical trial by comparing the outcome of two treatment conditions: combined group CBT (eight, 2-hour weekly sessions) plus individual dilemma-focused therapy (eight, 1-hour weekly sessions) and CBT alone (eight, 2-hour group weekly sessions plus eight, 1-hour individual weekly sessions). METHOD: Participants are patients aged over 18 years meeting diagnostic criteria for major depressive disorder or dysthymic disorder, with a score of 19 or above on the Beck depression inventory, second edition (BDI-II) and presenting at least one cognitive conflict (implicative dilemma or dilemmatic construct) as assessed using the RGT. The BDI-II is the primary outcome measure, collected at baseline, at the end of therapy, and at 3- and 12-month follow-up; other secondary measures are also used. DISCUSSION: We expect that adding a dilemma-focused intervention to CBT will increase the efficacy of one of the more prestigious therapies for depression, thus resulting in a significant contribution to the psychological treatment of depression. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN92443999; ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01542957.

Keeping Promises : Implementing the UNESCO Convention on Cultural Diversity into EU's Internal Policies

Irrespective of the diverse stances taken on the UNESCO Convention’s bearing in the external relations context, since its wording is fairly open-ended, it is clear to all observers that the Convention’s impact will largely depend on how it is implemented. The discussion on the domestic implementation of the Convention, both in the political and in the academic discourses, is only just emerging. The implementation model of the EU and its Member States could set an important example for the international community and for the other State Parties that ratified the UNESCO Convention, as the EU and the Member States acting individually, played a critical role in the approval of the Convention, and in the longer process of promoting cultural concerns on the international scene. Against this background, it is the objective of the present article to analyse in how far EU’s internal policies are taking account of the spirit and letter of the UNESCO Convention on Cultural Diversity, to critically assess these policies and make some recommendations for adjustment.

Analytical Models of Exoplanetary Atmospheres. II. Radiative Transfer via the Two-Stream Approximation

We present a comprehensive analytical study of radiative transfer using the method of moments and include the effects of non-isotropic scattering in the coherent limit. Within this unified formalism, we derive the governing equations and solutions describing two-stream radiative transfer (which approximates the passage of radiation as a pair of outgoing and incoming fluxes), flux-limited diffusion (which describes radiative transfer in the deep interior) and solutions for the temperature-pressure profiles. Generally, the problem is mathematically under-determined unless a set of closures (Eddington coefficients) is specified. We demonstrate that the hemispheric (or hemi-isotropic) closure naturally derives from the radiative transfer equation if energy conservation is obeyed, while the Eddington closure produces spurious enhancements of both reflected light and thermal emission. We concoct recipes for implementing two-stream radiative transfer in stand-alone numerical calculations and general circulation models. We use our two-stream solutions to construct toy models of the runaway greenhouse effect. We present a new solution for temperature-pressure profiles with a non-constant optical opacity and elucidate the effects of non-isotropic scattering in the optical and infrared. We derive generalized expressions for the spherical and Bond albedos and the photon deposition depth. We demonstrate that the value of the optical depth corresponding to the photosphere is not always 2/3 (Milne's solution) and depends on a combination of stellar irradiation, internal heat and the properties of scattering both in optical and infrared. Finally, we derive generalized expressions for the total, net, outgoing and incoming fluxes in the convective regime.

Elucidating the internal structure of psychophysical timing performance in the sub-second and second range by utilizing confirmatory factor analysis

The most influential theoretical account in time psychophysics assumes the existence of a unitary internal clock based on neural counting. The distinct timing hypothesis, on the other hand, suggests an automatic timing mechanism for processing of durations in the sub-second range and a cognitively controlled timing mechanism for processing of durations in the range of seconds. Although several psychophysical approaches can be applied for identifying the internal structure of interval timing in the second and sub-second range, the existing data provide a puzzling picture of rather inconsistent results. In the present chapter, we introduce confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to further elucidate the internal structure of interval timing performance in the sub-second and second range. More specifically, we investigated whether CFA would rather support the notion of a unitary timing mechanism or of distinct timing mechanisms underlying interval timing in the sub-second and second range, respectively. The assumption of two distinct timing mechanisms which are completely independent of each other was not supported by our data. The model assuming a unitary timing mechanism underlying interval timing in both the sub-second and second range fitted the empirical data much better. Eventually, we also tested a third model assuming two distinct, but functionally related mechanisms. The correlation between the two latent variables representing the hypothesized timing mechanisms was rather high and comparison of fit indices indicated that the assumption of two associated timing mechanisms described the observed data better than only one latent variable. Models are discussed in the light of the existing psychophysical and neurophysiological data.

Elucidating the Functional Relationship Between Working Memory Capacity and Psychometric Intelligence: A Fixed-Links Modeling Approach for Experimental Repeated-Measures Designs

Numerous studies reported a strong link between working memory capacity (WMC) and fluid intelligence (Gf), although views differ in respect to how close these two constructs are related to each other. In the present study, we used a WMC task with five levels of task demands to assess the relationship between WMC and Gf by means of a new methodological approach referred to as fixed-links modeling. Fixed-links models belong to the family of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and are of particular interest for experimental, repeated-measures designs. With this technique, processes systematically varying across task conditions can be disentangled from processes unaffected by the experimental manipulation. Proceeding from the assumption that experimental manipulation in a WMC task leads to increasing demands on WMC, the processes systematically varying across task conditions can be assumed to be WMC-specific. Processes not varying across task conditions, on the other hand, are probably independent of WMC. Fixed-links models allow for representing these two kinds of processes by two independent latent variables. In contrast to traditional CFA where a common latent variable is derived from the different task conditions, fixed-links models facilitate a more precise or purified representation of the WMC-related processes of interest. By using fixed-links modeling to analyze data of 200 participants, we identified a non-experimental latent variable, representing processes that remained constant irrespective of the WMC task conditions, and an experimental latent variable which reflected processes that varied as a function of experimental manipulation. This latter variable represents the increasing demands on WMC and, hence, was considered a purified measure of WMC controlled for the constant processes. Fixed-links modeling showed that both the purified measure of WMC (β = .48) as well as the constant processes involved in the task (β = .45) were related to Gf. Taken together, these two latent variables explained the same portion of variance of Gf as a single latent variable obtained by traditional CFA (β = .65) indicating that traditional CFA causes an overestimation of the effective relationship between WMC and Gf. Thus, fixed-links modeling provides a feasible method for a more valid investigation of the functional relationship between specific constructs.

Simultaneous analysis of nuclear and mitochondrial DNA, mRNA and miRNA from backspatter from inside parts of firearms generated by shots at "triple contrast" doped ballistic models

When a firearm projectile hits a biological target a spray of biological material (e.g., blood and tissue fragments) can be propelled from the entrance wound back towards the firearm. This phenomenon has become known as "backspatter" and if caused by contact shots or shots from short distances traces of backspatter may reach, consolidate on, and be recovered from, the inside surfaces of the firearm. Thus, a comprehensive investigation of firearm-related crimes must not only comprise of wound ballistic assessment but also backspatter analysis, and may even take into account potential correlations between these emergences. The aim of the present study was to evaluate and expand the applicability of the "triple contrast" method by probing its compatibility with forensic analysis of nuclear and mitochondrial DNA and the simultaneous investigation of co-extracted mRNA and miRNA from backspatter collected from internal components of different types of firearms after experimental shootings. We demonstrate that "triple contrast" stained biological samples collected from the inside surfaces of firearms are amenable to forensic co-analysis of DNA and RNA and permit sequence analysis of the entire mtDNA displacement-loop, even for "low template" DNA amounts that preclude standard short tandem repeat DNA analysis. Our findings underscore the "triple contrast" method's usefulness as a research tool in experimental forensic ballistics.

A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 2: Shortcomings and strengths of models and reconstructions

This study compares gridded European seasonal series of surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation (PRE) reconstructions with a regional climate simulation over the period 1500–1990. The area is analysed separately for nine subareas that represent the majority of the climate diversity in the European sector. In their spatial structure, an overall good agreement is found between the reconstructed and simulated climate features across Europe, supporting consistency in both products. Systematic biases between both data sets can be explained by a priori known deficiencies in the simulation. Simulations and reconstructions, however, largely differ in the temporal evolution of past climate for European subregions. In particular, the simulated anomalies during the Maunder and Dalton minima show stronger response to changes in the external forcings than recorded in the reconstructions. Although this disagreement is to some extent expected given the prominent role of internal variability in the evolution of regional temperature and precipitation, a certain degree of agreement is a priori expected in variables directly affected by external forcings. In this sense, the inability of the model to reproduce a warm period similar to that recorded for the winters during the first decades of the 18th century in the reconstructions is indicative of fundamental limitations in the simulation that preclude reproducing exceptionally anomalous conditions. Despite these limitations, the simulated climate is a physically consistent data set, which can be used as a benchmark to analyse the consistency and limitations of gridded reconstructions of different variables. A comparison of the leading modes of SAT and PRE variability indicates that reconstructions are too simplistic, especially for precipitation, which is associated with the linear statistical techniques used to generate the reconstructions. The analysis of the co-variability between sea level pressure (SLP) and SAT and PRE in the simulation yields a result which resembles the canonical co-variability recorded in the observations for the 20th century. However, the same analysis for reconstructions exhibits anomalously low correlations, which points towards a lack of dynamical consistency between independent reconstructions.