Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) was created to evaluate our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding methane (CH4) emissions. A multi-model comparison is essential to evaluate the key uncertainties in the mechanisms and parameters leading to methane emissions. Ten modelling groups joined WETCHIMP to run eight global and two regional models with a common experimental protocol using the same climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. We reported the main conclusions from the intercomparison effort in a companion paper (Melton et al., 2013). Here we provide technical details for the six experiments, which included an equilibrium, a transient, and an optimized run plus three sensitivity experiments (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). The diversity of approaches used by the models is summarized through a series of conceptual figures, and is used to evaluate the wide range of wetland extent and CH4 fluxes predicted by the models in the equilibrium run. We discuss relationships among the various approaches and patterns in consistencies of these model predictions. Within this group of models, there are three broad classes of methods used to estimate wetland extent: prescribed based on wetland distribution maps, prognostic relationships between hydrological states based on satellite observations, and explicit hydrological mass balances. A larger variety of approaches was used to estimate the net CH4 fluxes from wetland systems. Even though modelling of wetland extent and CH4 emissions has progressed significantly over recent decades, large uncertainties still exist when estimating CH4 emissions: there is little consensus on model structure or complexity due to knowledge gaps, different aims of the models, and the range of temporal and spatial resolutions of the models.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.

Three-dimensional magnetic resonance observation of cartilage repair tissue (MOCART) score assessed with an isotropic three-dimensional true fast imaging with steady-state precession sequence at 3.0 Tesla

INTRODUCTION: Cartilage defects are common pathologies and surgical cartilage repair shows promising results. In its postoperative evaluation, the magnetic resonance observation of cartilage repair tissue (MOCART) score, using different variables to describe the constitution of the cartilage repair tissue and the surrounding structures, is widely used. High-field magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and 3-dimensional (3D) isotropic sequences may combine ideal preconditions to enhance the diagnostic performance of cartilage imaging.Aim of this study was to introduce an improved 3D MOCART score using the possibilities of an isotropic 3D true fast imaging with steady-state precession (True-FISP) sequence in the postoperative evaluation of patients after matrix-associated autologous chondrocyte transplantation (MACT) as well as to compare the results to the conventional 2D MOCART score using standard MR sequences. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study had approval by the local ethics commission. One hundred consecutive MR scans in 60 patients at standard follow-up intervals of 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, and 60 months after MACT of the knee joint were prospectively included. The mean follow-up interval of this cross-sectional evaluation was 21.4 +/- 20.6 months; the mean age of the patients was 35.8 +/- 9.4 years. MRI was performed at a 3.0 Tesla unit. All variables of the standard 2D MOCART score where part of the new 3D MOCART score. Furthermore, additional variables and options were included with the aims to use the capabilities of isotropic MRI, to include the results of recent studies, and to adapt to the needs of patients and physician in a clinical routine examination. A proton-density turbo spin-echo sequence, a T2-weighted dual fast spin-echo (dual-FSE) sequence, and a T1-weighted turbo inversion recovery magnitude (TIRM) sequence were used to assess the standard 2D MOCART score; an isotropic 3D-TrueFISP sequence was prepared to evaluate the new 3D MOCART score. All 9 variables of the 2D MOCART score were compared with the corresponding variables obtained by the 3D MOCART score using the Pearson correlation coefficient; additionally the subjective quality and possible artifacts of the MR sequences were analyzed. RESULTS: The correlation between the standard 2D MOCART score and the new 3D MOCART showed for the 8 variables "defect fill," "cartilage interface," "surface," "adhesions," "structure," "signal intensity," "subchondral lamina," and "effusion"-a highly significant (P < 0.001) correlation with a Pearson coefficient between 0.566 and 0.932. The variable "bone marrow edema" correlated significantly (P < 0.05; Pearson coefficient: 0.257). The subjective quality of the 3 standard MR sequences was comparable to the isotropic 3D-TrueFISP sequence. Artifacts were more frequently visible within the 3D-TrueFISP sequence. CONCLUSION: In the clinical routine follow-up after cartilage repair, the 3D MOCART score, assessed by only 1 high-resolution isotropic MR sequence, provides comparable information than the standard 2D MOCART score. Hence, the new 3D MOCART score has the potential to combine the information of the standard 2D MOCART score with the possible advantages of isotropic 3D MRI at high-field. A clear limitation of the 3D-TrueFISP sequence was the high number of artifacts. Future studies have to prove the clinical benefits of a 3D MOCART score.

Intra- and inter-individual variation of BIS-index and Entropy during controlled sedation with midazolam/remifentanil and dexmedetomidine/remifentanil in healthy volunteers: an interventional study

INTRODUCTION: We studied intra-individual and inter-individual variability of two online sedation monitors, BIS and Entropy, in volunteers under sedation. METHODS: Ten healthy volunteers were sedated in a stepwise manner with doses of either midazolam and remifentanil or dexmedetomidine and remifentanil. One week later the procedure was repeated with the remaining drug combination. The doses were adjusted to achieve three different sedation levels (Ramsay Scores 2, 3 and 4) and controlled by a computer-driven drug-delivery system to maintain stable plasma concentrations of the drugs. At each level of sedation, BIS and Entropy (response entropy and state entropy) values were recorded for 20 minutes. Baseline recordings were obtained before the sedative medications were administered. RESULTS: Both inter-individual and intra-individual variability increased as the sedation level deepened. Entropy values showed greater variability than BIS(R) values, and the variability was greater during dexmedetomidine/remifentanil sedation than during midazolam/remifentanil sedation. CONCLUSIONS: The large intra-individual and inter-individual variability of BIS and Entropy values in sedated volunteers makes the determination of sedation levels by processed electroencephalogram (EEG) variables impossible. Reports in the literature which draw conclusions based on processed EEG variables obtained from sedated intensive care unit (ICU) patients may be inaccurate due to this variability. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Nr. NCT00641563.