Circulation dynamics and its influence on European and Mediterranean January-April climate over the past half millennium: results and insights from instrumental data, documentary evidence and coupled climate models

We use long instrumental temperature series together with available field reconstructions of sea-level pressure (SLP) and three-dimensional climate model simulations to analyze relations between temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation patterns over much of Europe and the Mediterranean for the late winter/early spring (January–April, JFMA) season. A Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) investigates interannual to interdecadal covariability between a new gridded SLP field reconstruction and seven long instrumental temperature series covering the past 250 years. We then present and discuss prominent atmospheric circulation patterns related to anomalous warm and cold JFMA conditions within different European areas spanning the period 1760–2007. Next, using a data assimilation technique, we link gridded SLP data with a climate model (EC-Bilt-Clio) for a better dynamical understanding of the relationship between large scale circulation and European climate. We thus present an alternative approach to reconstruct climate for the pre-instrumental period based on the assimilated model simulations. Furthermore, we present an independent method to extend the dynamic circulation analysis for anomalously cold European JFMA conditions back to the sixteenth century. To this end, we use documentary records that are spatially representative for the long instrumental records and derive, through modern analogs, large-scale SLP, surface temperature and precipitation fields. The skill of the analog method is tested in the virtual world of two three-dimensional climate simulations (ECHO-G and HadCM3). This endeavor offers new possibilities to both constrain climate model into a reconstruction mode (through the assimilation approach) and to better asses documentary data in a quantitative way.

The Genesis Solar Wind Concentrator: Flight and Post-Flight Conditions and Modeling of Instrumental Fractionation

The Genesis mission Solar Wind Concentrator was built to enhance fluences of solar wind by an average of 20x over the 2.3 years that the mission exposed substrates to the solar wind. The Concentrator targets survived the hard landing upon return to Earth and were used to determine the isotopic composition of solar-wind—and hence solar—oxygen and nitrogen. Here we report on the flight operation of the instrument and on simulations of its performance. Concentration and fractionation patterns obtained from simulations are given for He, Li, N, O, Ne, Mg, Si, S, and Ar in SiC targets, and are compared with measured concentrations and isotope ratios for the noble gases. Carbon is also modeled for a Si target. Predicted differences in instrumental fractionation between elements are discussed. Additionally, as the Concentrator was designed only for ions ≤22 AMU, implications of analyzing elements as heavy as argon are discussed. Post-flight simulations of instrumental fractionation as a function of radial position on the targets incorporate solar-wind velocity and angular distributions measured in flight, and predict fractionation patterns for various elements and isotopes of interest. A tighter angular distribution, mostly due to better spacecraft spin stability than assumed in pre-flight modeling, results in a steeper isotopic fractionation gradient between the center and the perimeter of the targets. Using the distribution of solar-wind velocities encountered during flight, which are higher than those used in pre-flight modeling, results in elemental abundance patterns slightly less peaked at the center. Mean fractionations trend with atomic mass, with differences relative to the measured isotopes of neon of +4.1±0.9 ‰/amu for Li, between -0.4 and +2.8 ‰/amu for C, +1.9±0.7‰/amu for N, +1.3±0.4 ‰/amu for O, -7.5±0.4 ‰/amu for Mg, -8.9±0.6 ‰/amu for Si, and -22.0±0.7 ‰/amu for S (uncertainties reflect Monte Carlo statistics). The slopes of the fractionation trends depend to first order only on the relative differential mass ratio, Δ m/ m. This article and a companion paper (Reisenfeld et al. 2012, this issue) provide post-flight information necessary for the analysis of the Genesis solar wind samples, and thus serve to complement the Space Science Review volume, The Genesis Mission (v. 105, 2003).

Validation of a paradigm to measure instrumental aggression (iap) on a sample of male adolescents with adjustment problems

Aggressive behavior can be classified in hostile and instrumental aggressions (anderson & bushman, 2002). this classification is mostly synonymously used with reactive and proactive aggression, whereas the differences between hostile and instrumental aggression lie on three dimensions, the primary goal, amount of anger and planning and calculation(bushman & anderson, 2001). although there are rating instruments and experimental paradigms to measure hostile aggression, there is no instrument to measure instrumental aggression. the following study will present an account to measure instrumental aggression with an experimental laboratory paradigm. the instrument was firstly tested on two samples of normal young adolescents (n1 = 100; amage. = 19.14; n2 = 60; amage. = 21.46). the first study revealed a strong correlation with a laboratory aggression paradigm measuring hostile aggression, but no correlations with self-reported aggression in the buss and perry questionnaire. these results were replicated in a second study, revealing an additional correlation with aggressive but not adaptive assertiveness. secondly the instrument was part of the evaluation of the reasoning and rehabilitation program r&r2 (ross, hilborn & lidell, 1984) in an institution for male adolescents with adjustment problems in switzerland. the r&r2 is a cognitive behavioral group therapy to reduce antisocial and promote prosocial cognitions and behavior. the treatment group (n= 16; rangeage = 15-17) is compared to a no treatment control group (n=24; rangeage = 17-19) preand post- treatment. further aggressive behavior was surveyed and experimentally measured. hostile rumination, aggressive and adaptive assertiveness, emotional and social competence were included in the measurement to estimate construct validity.

The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence

The magnitudes of the largest known floods of the River Rhine in Basel since 1268 were assessed using a hydraulic model drawing on a set of pre-instrumental evidence and daily hydrological measurements from 1808. The pre-instrumental evidence, consisting of flood marks and documentary data describing extreme events with the customary reference to specific landmarks, was “calibrated” by comparing it with the instrumental series for the overlapping period between the two categories of evidence (1808–1900). Summer (JJA) floods were particularly frequent in the century between 1651–1750, when precipitation was also high. Severe winter (DJF) floods have not occurred since the late 19th century despite a significant increase in winter precipitation. Six catastrophic events involving a runoff greater than 6000 m 3 s-1 are documented prior to 1700. They were initiated by spells of torrential rainfall of up to 72 h (1480 event) and preceded by long periods of substantial precipitation that saturated the soils, and/or by abundant snowmelt. All except two (1999 and 2007) of the 43 identified severe events (SEs: defined as having runoff > 5000 and < 6000 m 3 s -1) occurred prior to 1877. Not a single SE is documented from 1877 to 1998. The intermediate 121-year-long “flood disaster gap” is unique over the period since 1268. The effect of river regulations (1714 for the River Kander; 1877 for the River Aare) and the building of reservoirs in the 20th century upon peak runoff were investigated using a one-dimensional hydraulic flood-routing model. Results show that anthropogenic effects only partially account for the “flood disaster gap” suggesting that variations in climate should also be taken into account in explaining these features.