Policy Instrument Selection under Uncertainty: The Case of Micropollution Regulation

The paper addresses the question of which factors drive the formation of policy preferences when there are remaining uncertainties about the causes and effects of the problem at stake. To answer this question we examine policy preferences reducing aquatic micropollutants, a specific case of water protection policy and different actor groups (e.g. state, science, target groups). Here, we contrast two types of policy preferences: a) preventive or source-directed policies, which mitigate pollution in order to avoid contact with water; and b) reactive or end-of-pipe policies, which filter water already contaminated by pollutants. In a second step, we analyze the drivers for actors’ policy preferences by focusing on three sets of explanations, i.e. participation, affectedness and international collaborations. The analysis of our survey data, qualitative interviews and regression analysis of the Swiss political elite show that participation in the policy-making process leads to knowledge exchange and reduces uncertainties about the policy problem, which promotes preferences for preventive policies. Likewise, actors who are affected by the consequences of micropollutants, such as consumer or environmental associations, opt for anticipatory policies. Interestingly, we find that uncertainties about the effectiveness of preventive policies can promote preferences for end-of-pipe policies. While preventive measures often rely on (uncertain) behavioral changes of target groups, reactive policies are more reliable when it comes to fulfilling defined policy goals. Finally, we find that in a transboundary water management context, actors with international collaborations prefer policies that produce immediate and reliable outcomes.

Motivational patterns as an instrument for predicting success in promising young football players

Psychological characteristics are crucial to identifying talents, which is why these are being incorporated in today’s multidimensional talent models. In addition to multidimensionality, talent studies are increasingly drawing on holistic theories of development, leading to the use of person-oriented approaches. The present study adopts such an approach by looking at the influence that motivational characteristics have on the development of performance, in a person-oriented way. For this purpose, it looks at how the constructs achievement motive, achievement goal orientation and self-determination interact with one another, what patterns they form and how these patterns are linked to subsequent sports success. 97 top young football players were questioned twice. Another year later, it was enquired which of these players had been selected for the U15 national team. At both measuring points, four patterns were identified, which displayed a high degree of structural and individual stability. As expected, the highly intrinsically achievement-oriented players were significantly more likely to move up into the U15 national team. The results point to the importance of favourable patterns of motivational variables in the form of specific types, for medium-term performance development among promising football talents, and thus provide valuable clues for the selection and promotion of those.

Holistic patterns as an instrument to predict promising young football players

Multidimensional talent models represent the current state of the art. However, it remains unclear how these different dimensions interact. Based on current theories of human development, person-oriented approaches seem to be particularly appropriate for talent research. The present study adopts this approach by looking at how a holistic system consisting of the dimensions motivation, motor behaviour and the stage of development goes along with athletic performance. For this purpose, it has to be examined which patterns were formed by the constructs net hope, motor abilities, technical skills and the so far achieved percentage of the predicted adult height and how these patterns are related to subsequent sporting success. 119 young elite football players were questioned and tested three times at intervals of one year, beginning at the age of 12. At the age of 15, the performance level the players had reached was examined. At all three measuring points, four patterns were identified which displayed partial structural and high individual stability. As expected, the players showing values above average in all factors were significantly more likely to advance to the highest performance level. Physically strong, precocious developed players though having some technical weaknesses, have good chances to reach the middle performance level. The results point to the importance of holistic approaches for the prediction of performance among promising football talents in the medium-term and thus provide valuable clues for their selection and promotion.

Holistic patterns as an instrument to predict performance of promising young football players

Multidimensional talent models represent the current state of the art. However, it remains unclear how these different dimensions interact. Based on current theories of human development, person-oriented approaches seem to be particularly appropriate for talent research. The present study adopts this approach by looking at how a holistic system consisting of the different dimensions motivation, motor behaviour and the stage of development goes along with athletic performance. For this purpose, it has to be examined which patterns were formed by the constructs net hope (Elbe et al., 2003), motor abilities (3 motor tests; Höner et al., 2014), technical skills (3 motor tests; Höner et al., 2014) and the so far achieved percentage of the predicted adult height (Mirwald et al, 2002) and how these patterns are related to subsequent sporting success. 119 young elite football players were questioned and tested three times at intervals of one year, beginning at the age of 12. At the age of 15, the performance level the players had reached was examined (national, regional or no talent card). At all three measuring points, four patterns were identified which displayed partial structural and high individual stability. As expected, the players showing values above average in all factors were significantly more likely to advance to the highest performance level (Odds ratio = 2.2, p < .01). Physically strong, precocious developed players though having some technical weaknesses, have good chances to reach the middle performance level (OR = 1.6, p = .01). Players showing values under average, have an one and a half times higher probability to advance to the lowest performance level (p < .01). The results point to the importance of holistic approaches for the prediction of performance among promising football talents in the medium-term and thus provide valuable clues for their selection and promotion.