Geographic information system-based decision support for soil conservation planning in Tajikistan

Soil erosion on sloping agricultural land poses a serious problem for the environment, as well as for production. In areas with highly erodible soils, such as those in loess zones, application of soil and water conservation measures is crucial to sustain agricultural yields and to prevent or reduce land degradation. The present study, carried out in Faizabad, Tajikistan, was designed to evaluate the potential of local conservation measures on cropland using a spatial modelling approach to provide decision-making support for the planning of spatially explicit sustainable land use. A sampling design to support comparative analysis between well-conserved units and other field units was established in order to estimate factors that determine water erosion, according to the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). Such factor-based approaches allow ready application using a geographic information system (GIS) and facilitate straightforward scenario modelling in areas with limited data resources. The study showed first that assessment of erosion and conservation in an area with inhomogeneous vegetation cover requires the integration of plot-based cover. Plot-based vegetation cover can be effectively derived from high-resolution satellite imagery, providing a useful basis for plot-wise conservation planning. Furthermore, thorough field assessments showed that 25.7% of current total cropland is covered by conservation measures (terracing, agroforestry and perennial herbaceous fodder). Assessment of the effectiveness of these local measures, combined with the RUSLE calculations, revealed that current average soil loss could be reduced through low-cost measures such as contouring (by 11%), fodder plants (by 16%), and drainage ditches (by 53%). More expensive measures such as terracing and agroforestry can reduce erosion by as much as 63% (for agroforestry) and 93% (for agroforestry combined with terracing). Indeed, scenario runs for different levels of tolerable erosion rates showed that more cost-intensive and technologically advanced measures would lead to greater reduction of soil loss. However, given economic conditions in Tajikistan, it seems advisable to support the spread of low-cost and labourextensive measures.

Misleading Population Estimates: Biases and Consistency of Visual Surveys and Matrix Modelling in the Endangered Bearded Vulture

Conservation strategies for long-lived vertebrates require accurate estimates of parameters relative to the populations' size, numbers of non-breeding individuals (the “cryptic” fraction of the population) and the age structure. Frequently, visual survey techniques are used to make these estimates but the accuracy of these approaches is questionable, mainly because of the existence of numerous potential biases. Here we compare data on population trends and age structure in a bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population from visual surveys performed at supplementary feeding stations with data derived from population matrix-modelling approximations. Our results suggest that visual surveys overestimate the number of immature (<2 years old) birds, whereas subadults (3–5 y.o.) and adults (>6 y.o.) were underestimated in comparison with the predictions of a population model using a stable-age distribution. In addition, we found that visual surveys did not provide conclusive information on true variations in the size of the focal population. Our results suggest that although long-term studies (i.e. population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures) are a more time-consuming method, they provide more reliable and robust estimates of population parameters needed in designing and applying conservation strategies. The findings shown here are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share similar life-history traits and ecological requirements.

Moving beyond a descriptive aquatic toxicology: the value of biological process and trait information

In order to improve the ability to link chemical exposure to toxicological and ecological effects, aquatic toxicology will have to move from observing what chemical concentrations induce adverse effects to more explanatory approaches, that are concepts which build on knowledge of biological processes and pathways leading from exposure to adverse effects, as well as on knowledge on stressor vulnerability as given by the genetic, physiological and ecological (e.g., life history) traits of biota. Developing aquatic toxicology in this direction faces a number of challenges, including (i) taking into account species differences in toxicant responses on the basis of the evolutionarily developed diversity of phenotypic vulnerability to environmental stressors, (ii) utilizing diversified biological response profiles to serve as biological read across for prioritizing chemicals, categorizing them according to modes of action, and for guiding targeted toxicity evaluation; (iii) prediction of ecological consequences of toxic exposure from knowledge of how biological processes and phenotypic traits lead to effect propagation across the levels of biological hierarchy; and (iv) the search for concepts to assess the cumulative impact of multiple stressors. An underlying theme in these challenges is that, in addition to the question of what the chemical does to the biological receptor, we should give increasing emphasis to the question how the biological receptor handles the chemicals, i.e., through which pathways the initial chemical-biological interaction extends to the adverse effects, how this extension is modulated by adaptive or compensatory processes as well as by phenotypic traits of the biological receptor.

Biological safety concepts of genetically modified live bacterial vaccines

Live vaccines possess the advantage of having access to induce cell-mediated and antibody-mediated immunity; thus in certain cases they are able to prevent infection, and not only disease. Furthermore, live vaccines, particularly bacterial live vaccines, are relatively cheap to produce and easy to apply. Hence they are suitable to immunize large communities or herds. The induction of both cell-mediated immunity as well as antibody-mediated immunity, which is particularly beneficial in inducing mucosal immune responses, is obtained by the vaccine-strain's ability to colonize and multiply in the host without causing disease. For this reason, live vaccines require attenuation of virulence of the bacterium to which immunity must be induced. Traditionally attenuation was achieved simply by multiple passages of the microorganism on growth medium, in animals, eggs or cell cultures or by chemical or physical mutagenesis, which resulted in random mutations that lead to attenuation. In contrast, novel molecular methods enable the development of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) targeted to specific genes that are particularly suited to induce attenuation or to reduce undesirable effects in the tissue in which the vaccine strains can multiply and survive. Since live vaccine strains (attenuated by natural selection or genetic engineering) are potentially released into the environment by the vaccinees, safety issues concerning the medical as well as environmental aspects must be considered. These involve (i) changes in cell, tissue and host tropism, (ii) virulence of the carrier through the incorporation of foreign genes, (iii) reversion to virulence by acquisition of complementation genes, (iv) exchange of genetic information with other vaccine or wild-type strains of the carrier organism and (v) spread of undesired genes such as antibiotic resistance genes. Before live vaccines are applied, the safety issues must be thoroughly evaluated case-by-case. Safety assessment includes knowledge of the precise function and genetic location of the genes to be mutated, their genetic stability, potential reversion mechanisms, possible recombination events with dormant genes, gene transfer to other organisms as well as gene acquisition from other organisms by phage transduction, transposition or plasmid transfer and cis- or trans-complementation. For this, GMOs that are constructed with modern techniques of genetic engineering display a significant advantage over random mutagenesis derived live organisms. The selection of suitable GMO candidate strains can be made under in vitro conditions using basic knowledge on molecular mechanisms of pathogenicity of the corresponding bacterial species rather than by in vivo testing of large numbers of random mutants. This leads to a more targeted safety testing on volunteers and to a reduction in the use of animal experimentation.

Multivariate modelling of responses to conditional items: New possibilities for latent class analysis

Questionnaire data may contain missing values because certain questions do not apply to all respondents. For instance, questions addressing particular attributes of a symptom, such as frequency, triggers or seasonality, are only applicable to those who have experienced the symptom, while for those who have not, responses to these items will be missing. This missing information does not fall into the category 'missing by design', rather the features of interest do not exist and cannot be measured regardless of survey design. Analysis of responses to such conditional items is therefore typically restricted to the subpopulation in which they apply. This article is concerned with joint multivariate modelling of responses to both unconditional and conditional items without restricting the analysis to this subpopulation. Such an approach is of interest when the distributions of both types of responses are thought to be determined by common parameters affecting the whole population. By integrating the conditional item structure into the model, inference can be based both on unconditional data from the entire population and on conditional data from subjects for whom they exist. This approach opens new possibilities for multivariate analysis of such data. We apply this approach to latent class modelling and provide an example using data on respiratory symptoms (wheeze and cough) in children. Conditional data structures such as that considered here are common in medical research settings and, although our focus is on latent class models, the approach can be applied to other multivariate models.

Predicting the population impact of chlamydia screening programmes: comparative mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND: Published individual-based, dynamic sexual network modelling studies reach different conclusions about the population impact of screening for Chlamydia trachomatis. The objective of this study was to conduct a direct comparison of the effect of organised chlamydia screening in different models. METHODS: Three models simulating population-level sexual behaviour, chlamydia transmission, screening and partner notification were used. Parameters describing a hypothetical annual opportunistic screening program in 16-24 year olds were standardised, whereas other parameters from the three original studies were retained. Model predictions of the change in chlamydia prevalence were compared under a range of scenarios. RESULTS: Initial overall chlamydia prevalence rates were similar in women but not men and there were age and sex-specific differences between models. The number of screening tests carried out was comparable in all models but there were large differences in the predicted impact of screening. After 10 years of screening, the predicted reduction in chlamydia prevalence in women aged 16-44 years ranged from 4% to 85%. Screening men and women had a greater impact than screening women alone in all models. There were marked differences between models in assumptions about treatment seeking and sexual behaviour before the start of the screening intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Future models of chlamydia transmission should be fitted to both incidence and prevalence data. This meta-modelling study provides essential information for explaining differences between published studies and increasing the utility of individual-based chlamydia transmission models for policy making.

Querying Runtime Information in the IDE

Code queries focus mainly on the static structure of a system. To comprehend the dynamic behavior of a system however, a software engineer needs to be able to reason about the dynamics of this system, for instance by querying a database of dynamic information. Such a querying mechanism should be directly available in the IDE where the developers implements, navigates and reasons about the software system. We propose (i) concepts to gather dynamic information, (ii) the means to query this information, and (iii) tools and techniques to integrate querying of dynamic information in the IDE, including the presentation of results generated by queries.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of traditional and new partner notification technologies for curable sexually transmitted infections: observational study, systematic reviews and mathematical modelling

BACKGROUND Partner notification is essential to the comprehensive case management of sexually transmitted infections. Systematic reviews and mathematical modelling can be used to synthesise information about the effects of new interventions to enhance the outcomes of partner notification. OBJECTIVE To study the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of traditional and new partner notification technologies for curable sexually transmitted infections (STIs). DESIGN Secondary data analysis of clinical audit data; systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials (MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) published from 1 January 1966 to 31 August 2012 and of studies of health-related quality of life (HRQL) [MEDLINE, EMBASE, ISI Web of Knowledge, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) and Health Technology Assessment (HTA)] published from 1 January 1980 to 31 December 2011; static models of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness; and dynamic modelling studies to improve parameter estimation and examine effectiveness. SETTING General population and genitourinary medicine clinic attenders. PARTICIPANTS Heterosexual women and men. INTERVENTIONS Traditional partner notification by patient or provider referral, and new partner notification by expedited partner therapy (EPT) or its UK equivalent, accelerated partner therapy (APT). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Population prevalence; index case reinfection; and partners treated per index case. RESULTS Enhanced partner therapy reduced reinfection in index cases with curable STIs more than simple patient referral [risk ratio (RR) 0.71; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56 to 0.89]. There are no randomised trials of APT. The median number of partners treated for chlamydia per index case in UK clinics was 0.60. The number of partners needed to treat to interrupt transmission of chlamydia was lower for casual than for regular partners. In dynamic model simulations, > 10% of partners are chlamydia positive with look-back periods of up to 18 months. In the presence of a chlamydia screening programme that reduces population prevalence, treatment of current partners achieves most of the additional reduction in prevalence attributable to partner notification. Dynamic model simulations show that cotesting and treatment for chlamydia and gonorrhoea reduce the prevalence of both STIs. APT has a limited additional effect on prevalence but reduces the rate of index case reinfection. Published quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) weights were of insufficient quality to be used in a cost-effectiveness study of partner notification in this project. Using an intermediate outcome of cost per infection diagnosed, doubling the efficacy of partner notification from 0.4 to 0.8 partners treated per index case was more cost-effective than increasing chlamydia screening coverage. CONCLUSIONS There is evidence to support the improved clinical effectiveness of EPT in reducing index case reinfection. In a general heterosexual population, partner notification identifies new infected cases but the impact on chlamydia prevalence is limited. Partner notification to notify casual partners might have a greater impact than for regular partners in genitourinary clinic populations. Recommendations for future research are (1) to conduct randomised controlled trials using biological outcomes of the effectiveness of APT and of methods to increase testing for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and STIs after APT; (2) collection of HRQL data should be a priority to determine QALYs associated with the sequelae of curable STIs; and (3) standardised parameter sets for curable STIs should be developed for mathematical models of STI transmission that are used for policy-making. FUNDING The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Prometheus Framework for Fuzzy Information Retrieval in Semantic Spaces

This paper introduces a novel vision for further enhanced Internet of Things services. Based on a variety of data (such as location data, ontology-backed search queries, in- and outdoor conditions) the Prometheus framework is intended to support users with helpful recommendations and information preceding a search for context-aware data. Adapted from artificial intelligence concepts, Prometheus proposes user-readjusted answers on umpteen conditions. A number of potential Prometheus framework applications are illustrated. Added value and possible future studies are discussed in the conclusion.

Prometheus – Fuzzy Information Retrieval for Semantic Homes and Environments

This paper introduces a novel vision for further enhanced Internet of Things services. Based on a variety of data – such as location data, ontology-backed search queries, in- and outdoor conditions – the Prometheus framework is intended to support users with helpful recommendations and information preceding a search for context-aware data. Adapted from artificial intelligence concepts, Prometheus proposes user-readjusted answers on umpteen conditions. A number of potential Prometheus framework applications are illustrated. Added value and possible future studies are discussed in the conclusion.

The German business and information technologies project

The Business and Information Technologies (BIT) project strives to reveal new insights into how modern IT impacts organizational structures and business practices using empirical methods. Due to its international scope, it allows for inter-country comparison of empirical results. Germany — represented by the European School of Management and Technologies (ESMT) and the Institute of Information Systems at Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin — joined the BIT project in 2006. This report presents the result of the first survey conducted in Germany during November–December 2006. The key results are as follows: • The most widely adopted technologies and systems in Germany are websites, wireless hardware and software, groupware/productivity tools, and enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems. The biggest potential for growth exists for collaboration and portal tools, content management systems, business process modelling, and business intelligence applications. A number of technological solutions have not yet been adopted by many organizations but also bear some potential, in particular identity management solutions, Radio Frequency Identification (RFID), biometrics, and third-party authentication and verification. • IT security remains on the top of the agenda for most enterprises: budget spending was increasing in the last 3 years. • The workplace and work requirements are changing. IT is used to monitor employees' performance in Germany, but less heavily compared to the United States (Karmarkar and Mangal, 2007).1 The demand for IT skills is increasing at all corporate levels. Executives are asking for more and better structured information and this, in turn, triggers the appearance of new decision-making tools and online technologies on the market. • The internal organization of companies in Germany is underway: organizations are becoming flatter, even though the trend is not as pronounced as in the United States (Karmarkar and Mangal, 2007), and the geographical scope of their operations is increasing. Modern IT plays an important role in enabling this development, e.g. telecommuting, teleconferencing, and other web-based collaboration formats are becoming increasingly popular in the corporate context. • The degree to which outsourcing is being pursued is quite limited with little change expected. IT services, payroll, and market research are the most widely outsourced business functions. This corresponds to the results from other countries. • Up to now, the adoption of e-business technologies has had a rather limited effect on marketing functions. Companies tend to extract synergies from traditional printed media and on-line advertising. • The adoption of e-business has not had a major impact on marketing capabilities and strategy yet. Traditional methods of customer segmentation are still dominating. The corporate identity of most organizations does not change significantly when going online. • Online sales channel are mainly viewed as a complement to the traditional distribution means. • Technology adoption has caused production and organizational costs to decrease. However, the costs of technology acquisition and maintenance as well as consultancy and internal communication costs have increased.

Diffusion of HTO, Br-, I-, Cs+, Sr-85(2+) and Co-60(2+) in a clay formation: Results and modelling from an in situ experiment in Opalinus Clay

The migration of radioactive and chemical contaminants in clay materials and argillaceous host rocks is characterised by diffusion and retention processes. Valuable information on such processes can be gained by combining diffusion studies at laboratory scale with field migration tests. In this work, the outcome of a multi-tracer in situ migration test performed in the Opalinus Clay formation in the Mont Terri underground rock laboratory (Switzerland) is presented. Thus, 1.16 x 10(5) Bq/L of HTO, 3.96 x 10(3) Bq/L of Sr-85, 6.29 x 10(2) Bq/L of Co-60, 2.01 x 10(-3) mol/L Cs, 9.10 x 10(-4) mol/L I and 1.04 x 10(-3) mol/L Br were injected into the borehole. The decrease of the radioisotope concentrations in the borehole was monitored using in situ gamma-spectrometry. The other tracers were analyzed with state-of-the-art laboratory procedures after sampling of small water aliquots from the reservoir. The diffusion experiment was carried out over a period of one year after which the interval section was overcored and analyzed. Based on the experimental data from the tracer evolution in the borehole and the tracer profiles in the rock, the diffusion of tracers was modelled with the numerical code CRUNCH. The results obtained for HTO (H-3), I- and Br- confirm previous lab and in situ diffusion data. Anionic fluxes into the formation were smaller compared to HTO because of anion exclusion effects. The migration of the cations Sr-85(2+), Cs+ and Co-60(2+) was found to be governed by both diffusion and sorption processes. For Sr-85(2+), the slightly higher diffusivity relative to HTO and the low sorption value are consistent with laboratory diffusion measurements on small-scale samples. In the case of Cs+, the numerically deduced high diffusivity and the Freundlich-type sorption behaviour is also supported by ongoing laboratory data. For Co, no laboratory diffusion data were yet available for comparison; however, the modelled data suggests that Co-60(2+) sorption was weaker than would be expected from available batch sorption data. Overall, the results demonstrate the feasibility of the experimental setup for obtaining high-quality diffusion data for conservative and sorbing tracers. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.