Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the Last Millennium (v1

We update the forcings for the PMIP3 experiments for the Last Millennium to include new assessments of historical land use changes and discuss new suggestions for calibrating solar activity proxies to total solar irradiance.

Climate variability of the mid- and high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in ensemble simulations from 1500 to 2000 AD

To increase the sparse knowledge of long-term Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate variability, we assess an ensemble of 4 transient simulations over the last 500 yr performed with a state-of-the-art atmosphere ocean general circulation model. The model is forced with reconstructions of solar irradiance, greenhouse gas (GHG) and volcanic aerosol concentrations. A 1990 control simulation shows that the model is able to represent the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and to some extent the South Pacific Dipole (SPD) and the Zonal Wave 3 (ZW3). During the past 500 yr we find that SPD and ZW3 variability remain stable, whereas SAM shows a significant shift towards its positive state during the 20th century. Regional temperatures over South America are strongly influenced by changing both GHG concentrations and volcanic eruptions, whereas precipitation shows no significant response to the varying external forcing. For temperature this stands in contrast to proxy records, suggesting that SH climate is dominated by internal variability rather than external forcing. The underlying dynamics of the temperature changes generally point to a combination of several modes, thus, hampering the possibilities of regional reconstructing the modes from proxy records. The linear imprint of the external forcing is as expected, i.e. a warming for increase in the combined solar and GHG forcing and a cooling after volcanic eruptions. Dynamically, only the increase in SAM with increased combined forcing is simulated.

Variations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in control and transient simulations of the last millennium

The variability of the Atlantic meridional overturing circulation (AMOC) strength is investigated in control experiments and in transient simulations of up to the last millennium using the low-resolution Community Climate System Model version 3. In the transient simulations the AMOC exhibits enhanced low-frequency variability that is mainly caused by infrequent transitions between two semi-stable circulation states which amount to a 10 percent change of the maximum overturning. One transition is also found in a control experiment, but the time-varying external forcing significantly increases the probability of the occurrence of such events though not having a direct, linear impact on the AMOC. The transition from a high to a low AMOC state starts with a reduction of the convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas and goes along with a changed barotropic circulation of both gyres in the North Atlantic and a gradual strengthening of the convection in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) Seas. In contrast, the transition from a weak to a strong overturning is induced by decreased mixing in the GIN Seas. As a consequence of the transition, regional sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are found in the midlatitude North Atlantic and in the convection regions with an amplitude of up to 3 K. The atmospheric response to the SST forcing associated with the transition indicates a significant impact on the Scandinavian surface air temperature (SAT) in the order of 1 K. Thus, the changes of the ocean circulation make a major contribution to the Scandinavian SAT variability in the last millennium.

Loop formulation of supersymmetric Yang-Mills quantum mechanics

We derive the fermion loop formulation of N=4 supersymmetric SU(N) Yang-Mills quantum mechanics on the lattice. The loop formulation naturally separates the contributions to the partition function into its bosonic and fermionic parts with fixed fermion number and provides a way to control potential fermion sign problems arising in numerical simulations of the theory. Furthermore, we present a reduced fermion matrix determinant which allows the projection into the canonical sectors of the theory and hence constitutes an alternative approach to simulate the theory on the lattice.

Variability of daily winter wind speed distribution over Northern Europe during the past millennium in regional and global climate simulations

We analyse the variability of the probability distribution of daily wind speed in wintertime over Northern and Central Europe in a series of global and regional climate simulations covering the last centuries, and in reanalysis products covering approximately the last 60 years. The focus of the study lies on identifying the link of the variations in the wind speed distribution to the regional near-surface temperature, to the meridional temperature gradient and to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our main result is that the link between the daily wind distribution and the regional climate drivers is strongly model dependent. The global models tend to behave similarly, although they show some discrepancies. The two regional models also tend to behave similarly to each other, but surprisingly the results derived from each regional model strongly deviates from the results derived from its driving global model. In addition, considering multi-centennial timescales, we find in two global simulations a long-term tendency for the probability distribution of daily wind speed to widen through the last centuries. The cause for this widening is likely the effect of the deforestation prescribed in these simulations. We conclude that no clear systematic relationship between the mean temperature, the temperature gradient and/or the North Atlantic Oscillation, with the daily wind speed statistics can be inferred from these simulations. The understand- ing of past and future changes in the distribution of wind speeds, and thus of wind speed extremes, will require a detailed analysis of the representation of the interaction between large-scale and small-scale dynamics.

Ventilation-perfusion ratio in perflubron during partial liquid ventilation

BACKGROUND: Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) of fluorine-19 allows for the mapping of oxygen partial pressure within perfluorocarbons in the alveolar space (Pao(2)). Theoretically, fMRI-detected Pao(2) can be combined with the Fick principle approach, i.e., a mass balance of oxygen uptake by ventilation and delivery by perfusion, to quantify the ventilation-perfusion ratio (Va/Q) of a lung region: The mixed venous blood and the inspiratory oxygen fraction, which are equal for all lung regions, are measured. In addition, the local expiratory oxygen fraction and the end capillary oxygen content, both of which may differ between the lung regions, are calculated using the fMRI-detected Pao(2). We investigated this approach by numerical simulations and applied it to quantify local Va/Q in the perfluorocarbons during partial liquid ventilation. METHODS: Numerical simulations were performed to analyze the sensitivity of the Va/Q calculation and to compare this approach with another one proposed by Rizi et al. in 2004 (Magn Reson Med 2004;52:65-72). Experimentally, the method was used during partial liquid ventilation in 7 anesthetized pigs. The Pao(2) distribution in intraalveolar perflubron was measured by fluorine-19 MRI. Respiratory gas fractions together with arterial and mixed venous blood samples were taken to quantify oxygen partial pressure and content. Using the Fick principle, the local Va/Q was estimated. The impact of gravity (nondependent versus dependent) of perflubron dose (10 vs 20 mL/kg body weight) and of inspired oxygen fraction (Fio(2)) (0.4-1.0) on Va/Q was examined. RESULTS: In numerical simulations, the Fick principle proved to be appropriate over the Va/Q range from 0.02 to 2.5. Va/Q values were in acceptable agreement with the method published by Rizi et al. In the experimental setting, low mean Va/Q values were found in perflubron (confidence interval [CI] 0.08-0.29 with 20 mL/kg perflubron). At this dose, Va/Q in the nondependent lung was higher (CI 0.18-0.39) than in the dependent lung regions (CI 0.06-0.16; P = 0.006; Student t test). Differences depending on Fio(2) or perflubron dose were, however, small. CONCLUSION: The results show that derivation of Va/Q from local Po(2) measurements using fMRI in perflubron is feasible. The low detected Va/Q suggests that oxygen transport into the perflubron-filled alveolar space is significantly restrained.

A genetically explicit model of speciation by sensory drive within a continuous population in aquatic environments

BACKGROUND: The sensory drive hypothesis predicts that divergent sensory adaptation in different habitats may lead to premating isolation upon secondary contact of populations. Speciation by sensory drive has traditionally been treated as a special case of speciation as a byproduct of adaptation to divergent environments in geographically isolated populations. However, if habitats are heterogeneous, local adaptation in the sensory systems may cause the emergence of reproductively isolated species from a single unstructured population. In polychromatic fishes, visual sensitivity might become adapted to local ambient light regimes and the sensitivity might influence female preferences for male nuptial color. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of speciation by sensory drive as a byproduct of divergent visual adaptation within a single initially unstructured population. We use models based on explicit genetic mechanisms for color vision and nuptial coloration. RESULTS: We show that in simulations in which the adaptive evolution of visual pigments and color perception are explicitly modeled, sensory drive can promote speciation along a short selection gradient within a continuous habitat and population. We assumed that color perception evolves to adapt to the modal light environment that individuals experience and that females prefer to mate with males whose nuptial color they are most sensitive to. In our simulations color perception depends on the absorption spectra of an individual's visual pigments. Speciation occurred most frequently when the steepness of the environmental light gradient was intermediate and dispersal distance of offspring was relatively small. In addition, our results predict that mutations that cause large shifts in the wavelength of peak absorption promote speciation, whereas we did not observe speciation when peak absorption evolved by stepwise mutations with small effect. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that speciation can occur where environmental gradients create divergent selection on sensory modalities that are used in mate choice. Evidence for such gradients exists from several animal groups, and from freshwater and marine fishes in particular. The probability of speciation in a continuous population under such conditions may then critically depend on the genetic architecture of perceptual adaptation and female mate choice.

Climate spectrum estimation in the presence of timescale errors

We introduce an algorithm (called REDFITmc2) for spectrum estimation in the presence of timescale errors. It is based on the Lomb-Scargle periodogram for unevenly spaced time series, in combination with the Welch's Overlapped Segment Averaging procedure, bootstrap bias correction and persistence estimation. The timescale errors are modelled parametrically and included in the simulations for determining (1) the upper levels of the spectrum of the red-noise AR(1) alternative and (2) the uncertainty of the frequency of a spectral peak. Application of REDFITmc2 to ice core and stalagmite records of palaeoclimate allowed a more realistic evaluation of spectral peaks than when ignoring this source of uncertainty. The results support qualitatively the intuition that stronger effects on the spectrum estimate (decreased detectability and increased frequency uncertainty) occur for higher frequencies. The surplus information brought by algorithm REDFITmc2 is that those effects are quantified. Regarding timescale construction, not only the fixpoints, dating errors and the functional form of the age-depth model play a role. Also the joint distribution of all time points (serial correlation, stratigraphic order) determines spectrum estimation.

Diffusive equilibration of N2, O2 and CO2 mixing ratios in a 1.5-million-years-old ice core

In the framework of the International Partnerships in Ice Core Sciences, one of the most important targets is to retrieve an Antarctic ice core that extends over the last 1.5 million years (i.e. an ice core that enters the climate era when glacial–interglacial cycles followed the obliquity cycles of the earth). In such an ice core the annual layers of the oldest ice would be thinned by a factor of about 100 and the climatic information of a 10 000 yr interval would be contained in less than 1 m of ice. The gas record in such an Antarctic ice core can potentially reveal the role of greenhouse gas forcing on these 40 000 yr cycles. However, besides the extreme thinning of the annual layers, also the long residence time of the trapped air in the ice and the relatively high ice temperatures near the bedrock favour diffusive exchanges. To investigate the changes in the O2 / N2 ratio, as well as the trapped CO2 concentrations, we modelled the diffusive exchange of the trapped gases O2, N2 and CO2 along the vertical axis. However, the boundary conditions of a potential drilling site are not yet well constrained and the uncertainties in the permeation coefficients of the air constituents in the ice are large. In our simulations, we have set the drill site ice thickness at 2700 m and the bedrock ice temperature at 5–10 K below the ice pressure melting point. Using these conditions and including all further uncertainties associated with the drill site and the permeation coefficients, the results suggest that in the oldest ice the precessional variations in the O2 / N2 ratio will be damped by 50–100%, whereas CO2 concentration changes associated with glacial–interglacial variations will likely be conserved (simulated damping 5%). If the precessional O2 / N2 signal will have disappeared completely in this future ice core, orbital tuning of the ice-core age scale will be limited.