Saving the Australian War Effort in 1916? The Significance and Impact of Global Climatic Conditions and Pests on William Morris Hughes’ Negotiations with the British Government

Taking up the thesis of Dipesh Chakrabarty (2009) that human history (including cultural history) on the one hand and natural history on the other must be brought into conversation more than has been done so in the past, this presentation will focus more closely on the significance and the impact of global climatic conditions and pests on the negotiations that Australian Prime Minister William Morris Hughes carried on with the British government between March and November 1916. Whereas Australia had been able to sell most of its produce in 1914 and 1915 the situation looked more serious in 1916, not least due to the growing shortage in shipping. It was therefore imperative for the Australian government to find a way to solve this problem, not least because it wanted to keep up its own war effort at the pace it had been going so far. In this context intentions to make or press ahead with a contribution to a war perceived to be more total those of the past interacted with natural phenomena such as the declining harvest in many parts of the world in 1916 as a consequence of climatic conditions as well as pests in many parts of the world.

Genome-wide DNA profiling of marginal zone lymphomas identifies subtype-specific lesions with an impact on the clinical outcome

Marginal zone B-cell lymphomas (MZLs) have been divided into 3 distinct subtypes (extranodal MZLs of mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue [MALT] type, nodal MZLs, and splenic MZLs). Nevertheless, the relationship between the subtypes is still unclear. We performed a comprehensive analysis of genomic DNA copy number changes in a very large series of MZL cases with the aim of addressing this question. Samples from 218 MZL patients (25 nodal, 57 MALT, 134 splenic, and 2 not better specified MZLs) were analyzed with the Affymetrix Human Mapping 250K SNP arrays, and the data combined with matched gene expression in 33 of 218 cases. MALT lymphoma presented significantly more frequently gains at 3p, 6p, 18p, and del(6q23) (TNFAIP3/A20), whereas splenic MZLs was associated with del(7q31), del(8p). Nodal MZLs did not show statistically significant differences compared with MALT lymphoma while lacking the splenic MZLs-related 7q losses. Gains of 3q and 18q were common to all 3 subtypes. del(8p) was often present together with del(17p) (TP53). Although del(17p) did not determine a worse outcome and del(8p) was only of borderline significance, the presence of both deletions had a highly significant negative impact on the outcome of splenic MZLs.

Differential pattern and prognostic significance of CD4+, FOXP3+ and IL-17+ tumor infiltrating lymphocytes in ductal and lobular breast cancers

Background Clinical relevance of tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) in breast cancer is controversial. Here, we used a tumor microarray including a large series of ductal and lobular breast cancers with long term follow up data, to analyze clinical impact of TIL expressing specific phenotypes and distribution of TILs within different tumor compartments and in different histological subtypes. Methods A tissue microarray (TMA) including 894 ductal and 164 lobular breast cancers was stained with antibodies recognizing CD4, FOXP3, and IL-17 by standard immunohistochemical techniques. Lymphocyte counts were correlated with clinico-pathological parameters and survival. Results CD4+ lymphocytes were more prevalent than FOXP3+ TILs whereas IL-17+ TILs were rare. Increased numbers of total CD4+ and FOXP3+ TIL were observed in ductal, as compared with lobular carcinomas. High grade (G3) and estrogen receptor (ER) negative ductal carcinomas displayed significantly (p < 0.001) higher CD4+ and FOXP3+ lymphocyte infiltration while her2/neu over-expression in ductal carcinomas was significantly (p < 0.001) associated with higher FOXP3+ TIL counts. In contrast, lymphocyte infiltration was not linked to any clinico-pathological parameters in lobular cancers. In univariate but not in multivariate analysis CD4+ infiltration was associated with significantly shorter survival in patients bearing ductal, but not lobular cancers. However, a FOXP3+/CD4+ ratio > 1 was associated with improved overall survival even in multivariate analysis (p = 0.033). Conclusions Ductal and lobular breast cancers appear to be infiltrated by different lymphocyte subpopulations. In ductal cancers increased CD4+ and FOXP3+ TIL numbers are associated with more aggressive tumor features. In survival analysis, absolute numbers of TILs do not represent major prognostic indicators in ductal and lobular breast cancer. Remarkably however, a ratio > 1 of total FOXP3+/CD4+ TILs in ductal carcinoma appears to represent an independent favorable prognostic factor.

The impact of body mass index on the development of systemic inflammatory response syndrome and sepsis in patients with polytrauma

PURPOSE: Obesity is a growing problem in industrial nations. Our aim was to examine how overweight patients coped with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) after polytrauma. METHODS: A total of 651 patients were included in this retrospective study, with an ISS≥16 and age≥16 years. The sample was subdivided into three groups: body mass index (BMI; all in kg/m(2))<25, BMI 25-30 and BMI>30, or low, intermediate and high BMI. The SIRS score was measured over 31 days after admission together with measurements of C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and procalcitonin (PCT). Data are given as the mean±SEM if not otherwise indicated. Kruskal-Wallis and χ(2) tests were used for statistical analysis and the significance level was set at p<.05. RESULTS: The maximum SIRS score was reached in the low BMI-group at 3.4±0.4, vs. 2.3±0.1 and 2.5±0.2 in the intermediate BMI-group and high BMI-group, respectively (p<.0001). However, the maximum SIRS score was reached earlier in the BMI 25-30 group at 1.8±0.2 days, vs. 3.4±0.4 and 2.5±0.2 days in the BMI<25 and BMI>30 groups, respectively (p<.0001). The incidence of sepsis was significantly higher in the low BMI group at 46.1%, vs. 0.2% and 0% in the BMI 25-30 and BMI>30 groups, respectively (p<.0001). No significant differences in the CRP, IL-6 or PCT levels were found between groups. CONCLUSIONS: A higher BMI seemed to be protective for these patients with polytrauma-associated inflammatory problems.

Impact of coil position and electrophysiological monitoring on determination of motor thresholds to transcranial magnetic stimulation

OBJECTIVE: We compared motor and movement thresholds to transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) in healthy subjects and investigated the effect of different coil positions on thresholds and MEP (motor-evoked potential) amplitudes. METHODS: The abductor pollicis brevis (APB) 'hot spot' and a standard scalp position were stimulated. APB resting motor threshold (APB MEP-MT) defined by the '5/10' electrophysiological method was compared with movement threshold (MOV-MT), defined by visualization of movements. Additionally, APB MEP-MTs were evaluated with the '3/6 method,' and MEPs were recorded at a stimulation intensity of 120% APB MEP-MT at each position. RESULTS: APB MEP-MTs were significantly lower by stimulation of the 'hot spot' than of the standard position, and significantly lower than MOV-MTs (n=15). There were no significant differences between the '3/6' and the '5/10' methods, or between APB MEP amplitudes by stimulating each position at 120% APB MEP-MT. CONCLUSIONS: Coil position and electrophysiological monitoring influenced motor threshold determinations. Performing 6 instead of 10 trials did not produce different threshold measurements. Adjustment of intensity according to APB MEP-MT at the stimulated position did not influence APB MEP amplitudes. SIGNIFICANCE: Standardization of stimulation positions, nomenclature and criteria for threshold measurements should be considered in design and comparison of TMS protocols.

Impact of Switching From Zidovudine to Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate on Bone Mineral Density and Markers of Bone Metabolism in Virologically Suppressed HIV-1 Infected Patients; A Substudy of the PREPARE Study

Context: In virologically suppressed, antiretroviral-treated patients, the effect of switching to tenofovir (TDF) on bone biomarkers compared to patients remaining on stable antiretroviral therapy is unknown. Methods: We examined bone biomarkers (osteocalcin [OC], procollagen type 1 amino-terminal propeptide, and C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type 1 collagen) and bone mineral density (BMD) over 48 weeks in virologically suppressed patients (HIV RNA < 50 copies/ml) randomized to switch to TDF/emtricitabine (FTC) or remain on first-line zidovudine (AZT)/lamivudine (3TC). PTH was also measured. Between-group differences in bone biomarkers and associations between change in bone biomarkers and BMD measures were assessed by Student's t tests, Pearson correlation, and multivariable linear regression, respectively. All data are expressed as mean (SD), unless otherwise specified. Results: Of 53 subjects (aged 46.0 y; 84.9% male; 75.5% Caucasian), 29 switched to TDF/FTC. There were reductions in total hip and lumbar spine BMD in those switching to TDF/FTC (total hip, TDF/FTC, −1.73 (2.76)% vs AZT/3TC, −0.39 (2.41)%; between-group P = .07; lumbar spine, TDF/FTC, −1.50 (3.49)% vs AZT/3TC, +0.25 (2.82)%; between-group P = .06), but they did not reach statistical significance. Greater declines in lumbar spine BMD correlated with greater increases in OC (r = −0.28; P = .05). The effect of TDF/FTC on bone biomarkers remained significant when adjusted for baseline biomarker levels, gender, and ethnicity. There was no difference in change in PTH levels over 48 weeks between treatment groups (between-group P = .23). All biomarkers increased significantly from weeks 0 to 48 in the switch group, with no significant change in those remaining on AZT/3TC (between-group, all biomarkers, P < .0001). Conclusion: A switch to TDF/FTC compared to remaining on a stable regimen is associated with increases in bone turnover that correlate with reductions in BMD, suggesting that TDF exposure directly affects bone metabolism in vivo.

The impact of structural conditions in communes on sports behaviour of adolescents and young adults in Switzerland

Young peoples’ sport activity in Switzerland differs considerably depending on the linguistic region (Lamprecht, Fischer, & Stamm, 2008). This appears to be based on cultural as well as on structural differences. The question then arises how differing structural conditions in communes (e.g. sport facilities, significance of the municipal promotion of sport) across different linguistic regions of Switzerland cause variation in sport behaviour. Based on the theory of social action (Coleman, 1990), it is assumed that individual behaviour is not only determined by individual but also by structural and socio-cultural factors in which a person is socially embedded. In two case studies, multilevel data was gathered analysing possible influences of structural factors on sports behaviour. Using an online survey, 15 to 25 year old inhabitants (N = 205) living in a German and French speaking commune were questioned about their sports participation in and outside of their commune, as well as their perception of sport-related structural characteristics in their commune. To collect information about communes’ sport facilities, the sport providers (N = 23) were interviewed. Sport-related characteristics of the communes were also collected through two interviews with representatives of the municipal administration. As expected, sport participation is significantly lower in the French speaking commune (Chi2 (1, N = 205) = 3.84, p < .05). Adolescents and young adults living in the French speaking commune are less satisfied with the sport infrastructure (F(1,135) = 9.65, p < .01) and evaluate the opportunities to be physically active in their commune significantly worse (F(1,144) = 15.33, p < .01) than their German-speaking counterparts. These first findings show the impact of structural conditions in communes on sport participation of adolescents and young people. However, it must be noted that this study is explorative and further communes would need to be examined in order to generalize the results. References Coleman, J. S. (1990). Foundations of social theory. Cambridge, MA: Belknap. Lamprecht, M., Fischer, A. & Stamm, H. (2008). Sport Schweiz 2008. Das Sportverhalten der Schweizer Bevölkerung. Magglingen: BASPO.

The impact of structural conditions in communes on physical activity and sports behaviour of adolescents and young adults in Switzerland

Introduction The physical activity of the Swiss population differs considerably depending on the linguistic region. German speakers are more often physically active than people living in the French- or Italian-speaking part of Switzerland (Stamm & Lamprecht, 2008). This study analyses how differing structural conditions in communes (e.g. sport facilities, significance of the municipal promotion of sport) across different linguistic regions of Switzerland correlate with physical activity and sports participation for adolescents and young adults. Methodological approach Based on the theory of social action (Coleman, 1990), it is assumed that individual behaviour is not only determined by individual but also by structural and socio-cultural factors in which a person is socially embedded. In two case studies, multilevel data was gathered analysing possible influences of structural factors on sports behaviour. Using an online survey, 15 to 25 year old inhabitants (N = 205) living in a German- and French-speaking commune were questioned about their sports participation in and outside of their commune, as well as their perception of sport-related structural characteristics in their commune. To collect information about communes’ sport facilities, the sport providers (N = 23) were interviewed. Sport-related characteristics of the communes were also collected through two interviews with representatives of the municipal administration. Results and discussion Physical activity is significantly higher (Chi2 (1, N = 183) = 4.78, p < .05) and sport participation is significantly lower in the French speaking commune (Chi2 (1, N = 205) = 3.84, p < .05). Adolescents and young adults in the French speaking commune (M = 3.15, SD = 1.23) are less satisfied with the opportunities to be physically active in the environment than their counterparts living in the German speaking commune (p < .001, Mann-Whitney U – test). These first findings show the impact of structural conditions in communes on physical activity and sport participation of adolescents and young people. However, it must be noted that this study is explorative and further communes would need to be examined in order to generalize the results. References Coleman J S (1990). Foundations of social theory. Belknap, Cambridge, MA. Stamm H, Lamprecht M (2008). EJSS, 8(1+2), 15-29.

The impact of body mass index and gender on the development of infectious complications in polytrauma patients

Purpose The aim was to test the impact of body mass index (BMI) and gender on infectious complications after polytrauma. Methods A total of 651 patients were included in this retrospective study, with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) C16 and age C16 years. The sample was subdivided into three groups: BMI\25 kg/m2, BMI 25–30 kg/m2, and BMI[30 kg/m2, and a female and a male group. Infectious complications were observed for 31 days after admission. Data are given as mean ± standard errors of the means. Analysis of variance, Kruskal–Wallis test, v2 tests, and Pearson’s correlation were used for the analyses and the significance level was set at P\0.05. Results The overall infection rates were 31.0 % in the BMI\25 kg/m2 group, 29.0 % in the BMI 25–30 kg/m2 group, and 24.5 % in the BMI[30 kg/m2 group (P = 0.519). The female patients developed significantly fewer infectious complications than the male patients (26.8 vs. 73.2 %; P\0.001). The incidence of death was significantly decreased according to the BMI group (8.8 vs. 7.2 vs. 1.5 %; P\0.0001) and the female population had a significantly lower mortality rate (4.1 vs. 13.4 %; P\0.0001). Pearson’s correlations between the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score and the corresponding infectious foci were not significant. Conclusion Higher BMI seems to be protective against polytrauma-associated death but not polytrauma-associated infections, and female gender protects against both polytrauma- associated infections and death. Understanding gender-specific immunomodulation could improve the outcome of polytrauma patients.

Impact of Chronic Neonicotinoid Exposure on Honeybee Colony Performance and Queen Supersedure

Background Honeybees provide economically and ecologically vital pollination services to crops and wild plants. During the last decade elevated colony losses have been documented in Europe and North America. Despite growing consensus on the involvement of multiple causal factors, the underlying interactions impacting on honeybee health and colony failure are not fully resolved. Parasites and pathogens are among the main candidates, but sublethal exposure to widespread agricultural pesticides may also affect bees. Methodology/Principal Findings To investigate effects of sublethal dietary neonicotinoid exposure on honeybee colony performance, a fully crossed experimental design was implemented using 24 colonies, including sister-queens from two different strains, and experimental in-hive pollen feeding with or without environmentally relevant concentrations of thiamethoxam and clothianidin. Honeybee colonies chronically exposed to both neonicotinoids over two brood cycles exhibited decreased performance in the short-term resulting in declining numbers of adult bees (−28%) and brood (−13%), as well as a reduction in honey production (−29%) and pollen collections (−19%), but colonies recovered in the medium-term and overwintered successfully. However, significantly decelerated growth of neonicotinoid-exposed colonies during the following spring was associated with queen failure, revealing previously undocumented long-term impacts of neonicotinoids: queen supersedure was observed for 60% of the neonicotinoid-exposed colonies within a one year period, but not for control colonies. Linked to this, neonicotinoid exposure was significantly associated with a reduced propensity to swarm during the next spring. Both short-term and long-term effects of neonicotinoids on colony performance were significantly influenced by the honeybees’ genetic background. Conclusions/Significance Sublethal neonicotinoid exposure did not provoke increased winter losses. Yet, significant detrimental short and long-term impacts on colony performance and queen fate suggest that neonicotinoids may contribute to colony weakening in a complex manner. Further, we highlight the importance of the genetic basis of neonicotinoid susceptibility in honeybees which can vary substantially.

The Impact of Pre-Operative Malperfusion on Outcome in Acute Type A Aortic Dissection: Results From the GERAADA Registry

BACKGROUND Malperfusion adversely affects outcomes in patients with acute type A aortic dissection, but reliable quantitative data are lacking. OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to analyze the impact of various forms of malperfusion on early outcome. METHODS A total of 2,137 consecutive patients enrolled in GERAADA (German Registry for Acute Aortic Dissection Type A) who underwent surgery between 2006 and 2010, of whom 717 (33.6%) had any kind of pre-operative malperfusion, were retrospectively analyzed. RESULTS All-cause 30-day mortality was 16.9% and varied substantially according to the number of organ systems affected by malperfusion (none, 12.6%; 1 system, 21.3%; 2 systems, 30.9%; 3 systems, 43.4%; p < 0.001). Pre-operative cerebral malperfusion, comatose state, peripheral malperfusion, visceral malperfusion, involvement of supra-aortic branches, coronary malperfusion, and renal malperfusion were all independent predictors of developing any post-operative malperfusion syndrome. When survival was considered, age, peripheral malperfusion, involvement of supra-aortic branches, coronary malperfusion, spinal malperfusion, a primary entry in the descending aorta, and pre-operative comatose state were independent predictors, again with increasing significance. CONCLUSIONS Malperfusion remains a severe clinical condition with strong potential for adverse outcomes in patients undergoing surgery for acute type A aortic dissection. The GERAADA registry suggests that the impact of the number of organs involved and the type of malperfusion on outcome differs substantially. Introducing an appropriate classification system, such as "complicated" and uncomplicated" acute type A aortic dissection, might help predict individual risk as well as select a surgical strategy that may quickly resolve malperfusion.

Impact of different magnification levels on visual caries detection with ICDAS

OBJECTIVES The aim of this in vitro study was to examine the effect of different levels of magnification on the accuracy and reliability of visual caries detection using ICDAS criteria. METHODS Occlusal surfaces of 100 extracted molars were assessed by 14 examiners (3rd and the 4th year dental students and dentists) using no magnification aids, a 2.5× Galilean loupe, a 4.5× Keplerian loupe, or a surgical microscope with 10× magnification. The assessments were repeated on a different day. Sensitivity, specificity, AUC and reliabilities were calculated according to the gold standard of histology. RESULTS We found that with increasing magnification, the number of surfaces rated as "sound" (ICDAS code 0) decreased, while the number of surfaces with a localized enamel breakdown (ICDAS code 3) increased. While the sensitivities increased, the values of the specificities decreased to an unacceptably low level irrespective of the clinical experience of the examiners. CONCLUSIONS ICDAS seems to be optimized for natural vision up to 2.0× magnification and not for high magnifications. The use of powerful magnification in visual caries detection involves the risk of unnecessary and premature invasive treatment. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE This paper discusses when it does and does not make sense to use magnification devices for visual caries detection using ICDAS criteria. Strong magnifications should be refrained from for this purpose.

The impact of structural conditions in communes on sports behaviour of adolescents and young adults in Switzerland

Young peoples’ sport activity differs considerably depending on the linguistic region in Switzerland (Lamprecht, Fischer, & Stamm, 2014). This appears to be based on cultural as well as on structural differences. The question then arises how differing structural conditions in communes (e.g. sport facilities, significance of the municipal promotion of sport) across different linguistic regions of Switzerland cause variation in sport behaviour. Based on the theory of social action (Coleman, 1990), it is assumed that individual behaviour is not only determined by individual but also by structural and socio - cultural factors in which a person is socially embedded . In 33 municipalities of the German and French speaking region of Switzerland, multilevel data was gathered analysing possible influences of structural factors on sports behaviour. Using an online survey, 15 to 30 year old inhabitants (N=3677) were questi oned about their sports participation, as well as their perception of sport - related structural characteristics in their commune. To collect information about communes’ sport facilities, sport providers as well as representatives of the municipal administra tion were interviewed and document analyses were conducted. Representatives of the municipal administration attach more importance to sport promotion in the German speaking than in French - speaking municipalities. Young people living in the French speaking commune are less satisfied with the sport facilities (F(1,3266)=31.31, p<.01) and they are less physically active than their German - speaking counterparts (Chi2(1,N=3537)=22.51, p<.05). These first findings show the impact of structural conditions in commun es on sport participation of adolescents and young people. However, further multilevel analyses will be conducted for a better understanding of correlations between structural conditions and different sports behaviour of young people. References Coleman, J. S. (1990). Foundations of social theory. Cambridge, MA: Belknap. Lamprecht, M., Fischer, A. & Stamm, H. (2014). Sport Schweiz 2014. Sportaktivität und Sportinteresse der Schweizer Bevölkerung. Magglingen: BASPO.

Potential Impact of Sexual Transmission on Ebola Virus Epidemiology: Sierra Leone as a Case Study.

BACKGROUND Sexual transmission of Ebola virus disease (EVD) 6 months after onset of symptoms has been recently documented, and Ebola virus RNA has been detected in semen of survivors up to 9 months after onset of symptoms. As countries affected by the 2013-2015 epidemic in West Africa, by far the largest to date, are declared free of Ebola virus disease (EVD), it remains unclear what threat is posed by rare sexual transmission events that could arise from survivors. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We devised a compartmental mathematical model that includes sexual transmission from convalescent survivors: a SEICR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-convalescent-recovered) transmission model. We fitted the model to weekly incidence of EVD cases from the 2014-2015 epidemic in Sierra Leone. Sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations showed that a 0.1% per sex act transmission probability and a 3-month convalescent period (the two key unknown parameters of sexual transmission) create very few additional cases, but would extend the epidemic by 83 days [95% CI: 68-98 days] (p < 0.0001) on average. Strikingly, a 6-month convalescent period extended the average epidemic by 540 days (95% CI: 508-572 days), doubling the current length, despite an insignificant rise in the number of new cases generated. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Our results show that reductions in the per sex act transmission probability via abstinence and condom use should reduce the number of sporadic sexual transmission events, but will not significantly reduce the epidemic size and may only minimally shorten the length of time the public health community must maintain response preparedness. While the number of infectious survivors is expected to greatly decline over the coming months, our results show that transmission events may still be expected for quite some time as each event results in a new potential cluster of non-sexual transmission. Precise measurement of the convalescent period is thus important for planning ongoing surveillance efforts.