GATS and the Regulation of Trade in Services

This collection of essays takes stock of the key challenges that have arisen since the entry into force of the General Agreement on Trade in Services in the mid-1990s and situates them in the context of the WTO's Doha Development Agenda and the proliferation of preferential agreements addressing services today. The multidisciplinary approach provides an opportunity for many of the world's leading experts and a number of new analytical voices to exchange ideas on the future of services trade and regulation. Cosmopolitan approaches to the treatment of labour mobility, the shape of services trade disciplines in the digital age and pro-competitive regulation in air transport are explored with a view to helping readers gain a better understanding of the forces shaping the changes. An essential read for all those concerned with the evolution of the rules-based trading system and its impact on the service economy.

Dynamic Optimization of SLA-Based Services Scaling Rules

Current advanced cloud infrastructure management solutions allow scheduling actions for dynamically changing the number of running virtual machines (VMs). This approach, however, does not guarantee that the scheduled number of VMs will properly handle the actual user generated workload, especially if the user utilization patterns will change. We propose using a dynamically generated scaling model for the VMs containing the services of the distributed applications, which is able to react to the variations in the number of application users. We answer the following question: How to dynamically decide how many services of each type are needed in order to handle a larger workload within the same time constraints? We describe a mechanism for dynamically composing the SLAs for controlling the scaling of distributed services by combining data analysis mechanisms with application benchmarking using multiple VM configurations. Based on processing of multiple application benchmarks generated data sets we discover a set of service monitoring metrics able to predict critical Service Level Agreement (SLA) parameters. By combining this set of predictor metrics with a heuristic for selecting the appropriate scaling-out paths for the services of distributed applications, we show how SLA scaling rules can be inferred and then used for controlling the runtime scale-in and scale-out of distributed services. We validate our architecture and models by performing scaling experiments with a distributed application representative for the enterprise class of information systems. We show how dynamically generated SLAs can be successfully used for controlling the management of distributed services scaling.

Opportunities and limits of the ecosystem services framework in capturing the cultural dimension of sustainable regional and landscape development in protected areas

With regard to protected areas, the concepts of ecosystem services and the cultural dimension of sustainable development (SD) are increasingly under debate. This contribution analyses the role of cultural aspects within the ecosystem services framework using the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment classification as a reference. The limits of the ecosystem services framework in capturing the cultural dimension are highlighted. Potential ways of strengthening the position of cultural values within this framework are discussed.

Antimyelin antibodies as predictors of disability after clinically isolated syndrome

There is controversy whether determination of antibodies against myelin, myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein, and myelin basic protein in serum from patients with a first episode suggestive of multiple sclerosis is of prognostic value. We evaluated whether detection of antimyelin antibodies in serum indicates a worse course with earlier time to a second relapse and increased progression of disability. We conducted a prospective study at the Department of Neurology, Inselspital Bern, Switzerland from 2004 to 2008 in patients presenting with a clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and a follow-up of at least 4 months. Antimyelin antibodies were assessed by Western blot. Results were correlated with clinical course and sex. Among 93 consecutive patients with a CIS, 74 (80%) were positive for either one or both antimyelin antibodies. A relapse occurred in 49 (53%) and the median EDSS was 2 (range 1-3.5) after a mean observation period of 20 months. Presence of antimyelin antibodies at CIS neither increased the risk for a second relapse nor for progression of disability. Stratification for gender did not reveal differences for any of the clinical surrogates. The sole determination of antimyelin antibodies in serum is of limited prognostic value for the identification of patients with different short-term course.

Time to endovascular reperfusion and degree of disability in acute stroke.

OBJECTIVE Faster time from onset to recanalization (OTR) in acute ischemic stroke using endovascular therapy (ET) has been associated with better outcome. However, previous studies were based on less-effective first-generation devices, and analyzed only dichotomized disability outcomes, which may underestimate the full effect of treatment. METHODS In the combined databases of the SWIFT and STAR trials, we identified patients treated with the Solitaire stent retriever with achievement of substantial reperfusion (Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction [TICI] 2b-3). Ordinal numbers needed to treat values were derived by populating joint outcome tables. RESULTS Among 202 patients treated with ET with TICI 2b to 3 reperfusion, mean age was 68 (±13), 62% were female, and median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score was 17 (interquartile range [IQR]: 14-20). Day 90 modified Rankin Scale (mRS) outcomes for OTR time intervals ranging from 180 to 480 minutes showed substantial time-related reductions in disability across the entire outcome range. Shorter OTR was associated with improved mean 90-day mRS (1.4 vs. 2.4 vs. 3.3, for OTR groups of 124-240 vs. 241-360 vs. 361-660 minutes; p < 0.001). The number of patients identified as benefitting from therapy with shorter OTR were 3-fold (range, 1.5-4.7) higher on ordinal, compared with dichotomized analysis. For every 15-minute acceleration of OTR, 34 per 1,000 treated patients had improved disability outcome. INTERPRETATION Analysis of disability over the entire outcome range demonstrates a marked effect of shorter time to reperfusion upon improved clinical outcome, substantially higher than binary metrics. For every 5-minute delay in endovascular reperfusion, 1 of 100 patients has a worse disability outcome. Ann Neurol 2015;78:584-593.

Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats: A SWOT analysis of the ecosystem services framework

The ecosystem services concept (ES) is becoming a cornerstone of contemporary sustainability thought. Challenges with this concept and its applications are well documented, but have not yet been systematically assessed alongside strengths and external factors that influence uptake. Such an assessment could form the basis for improving ES thinking, further embedding it into environmental decisions and management. The Young Ecosystem Services Specialists (YESS) completed a Strengths–Weaknesses–Opportunities–Threats (SWOT) analysis of ES through YESS member surveys. Strengths include the approach being interdisciplinary, and a useful communication tool. Weaknesses include an incomplete scientific basis, frameworks being inconsistently applied, and accounting for nature's intrinsic value. Opportunities include alignment with existing policies and established methodologies, and increasing environmental awareness. Threats include resistance to change, and difficulty with interdisciplinary collaboration. Consideration of SWOT themes suggested five strategic areas for developing and implementing ES. The ES concept could improve decision-making related to natural resource use, and interpretation of the complexities of human-nature interactions. It is contradictory – valued as a simple means of communicating the importance of conservation, whilst also considered an oversimplification characterised by ambiguous language. Nonetheless, given sufficient funding and political will, the ES framework could facilitate interdisciplinary research, ensuring decision-making that supports sustainable development.

Reflections on the Nature of Preferentialism in Services Trade

The Graduate Institute organized an academic workshop and roundtable on the occasion of EFTA's 50th Anniversary in Geneva under the chairmanship of H.E. Doris Leuthard, President of the Swiss Confederation. Pierre Sauve, Deputy Managing Director and Director of Studies, WTI and Co-leader, NCCR-Trade work programme on preferentialism and Anirudh Shingal, Senior Research Fellow, WTI and Co-leader, NCCR-Trade work programme on impact assessment of trade, co-authored a paper on the nature of preferentialism in services trade, which Anirudh presented at the workshop. The event was extremely well-attended by high profile dignitaries and academics including President Leuthard; Director General of the WTO, Pascal Lamy; trade ministers of Brazil and Finland; Jan Kubis, Executive Secretary of the UNECE and several current and former ambassadors. The academic workshop, moderated by Theresa Carpenter (Graduate Institute, Geneva), began in the morning with Prof. Victor Norman's (Norwegian School of Economics & Business Administration) presentation on the future of EFTA. Other presentations included those by Prof. Peter Egger (ETH Zurich) on the structural estimation of gravity models with market entry dynamics and by Prof. Richard Baldwin (Graduate Institute, Geneva) on 21st century regionalism. The high-profile Panel in the afternoon, moderated by Prof. Richard Baldwin, was led by President Leuthard who spoke on free trade agreements and the multilateral trading system in 2020. The keynote address at the Panel was delivered by Prof. Jagdish Bhagwati (Coulmbia University), who spoke on strengthening defences against protectionism and liberalizing trade.