Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

Stress free configuration of the human eye

Numerical simulations of eye globes often rely on topographies that have been measured in vivo using devices such as the Pentacam or OCT. The topographies, which represent the form of the already stressed eye under the existing intraocular pressure, introduce approximations in the analysis. The accuracy of the simulations could be improved if either the stress state of the eye under the effect of intraocular pressure is determined, or the stress-free form of the eye estimated prior to conducting the analysis. This study reviews earlier attempts to address this problem and assesses the performance of an iterative technique proposed by Pandolfi and Holzapfel [1], which is both simple to implement and promises high accuracy in estimating the eye's stress-free form. A parametric study has been conducted and demonstrated reliance of the error level on the level of flexibility of the eye model, especially in the cornea region. However, in all cases considered 3-4 analysis iterations were sufficient to produce a stress-free form with average errors in node location <10(-6)mm and a maximal error <10(-4)mm. This error level, which is similar to what has been achieved with other methods and orders of magnitude lower than the accuracy of current clinical topography systems, justifies the use of the technique as a pre-processing step in ocular numerical simulations.

On the relationship between Nd isotopic composition and ocean overturning circulation in idealized freshwater discharge events

Using a cost-efficient climate model, the effect of changes in overturning circulation on neodymium isotopic composition,ϵNd, is systematically examined for the first time. Idealized sequences of abrupt climate changes are induced by the application of periodic freshwater fluxes to the North Atlantic (NA) and the Southern Ocean (SO), thus mainly affecting either the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) or Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). Variations in ϵNd reflect weakening and strengthening of the formation of NADW and AABW, changes in ϵNdof end-members are relatively small. Relationships betweenϵNd and the strength of NADW or AABW are more pronounced for AABW than for NADW. Atlantic patterns of variations in ϵNd systematically differ between NA and SO experiments. Additionally, the signature of changes in ϵNd in the Atlantic and the Pacific is alike in NA but opposite in SO experiments. Discrimination between NA and SO experiments is therefore possible based on the Atlantic pattern of variations in ϵNd and the contrariwise behavior of ϵNd in the Atlantic and the Pacific. In further experiments we examined the effect of variations in magnitudes of particle export fluxes. Within the examined range, and although settling particles represent the only sink of Nd, their effects on ϵNd are relatively small. Our results confirm the large potential of ϵNd as a paleocirculation tracer but also indicate its limitations of quantitative reconstructions of changes in the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation.

DXA predictions of human femoral mechanical properties depend on the load configuration

The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of dual energy X-rays absorptiometry (DXA) areal bone mineral density (aBMD) measured in different regions of the proximal part of the human femur for predicting the mechanical properties of matched proximal femora tested in two different loading configurations. 36 pairs of fresh frozen femora were DXA scanned and tested until failure in two loading configurations: a fall on the side or a one-legged standing. The ability of the DXA output from four different regions of the proximal femur in predicting the femoral mechanical properties was measured and compared for the two loading scenarios. The femoral neck DXA BMD was best correlated to the femoral ultimate force for both configurations and predicted significantly better femoral failure load (R2=0.80 vs. R2=0.66, P<0.05) when simulating a side than when simulating a standing configuration. Conversely, the work to failure was predicted similarly for both loading configurations (R2=0.54 vs. R2=0.53, P>0.05). Therefore, neck BMD should be considered as one of the key factors for discriminating femoral fracture risk in vivo. Moreover, the better predictive ability of neck BMD for femoral strength if tested in a fall compared to a one-legged stance configuration suggests that DXA's clinical relevance may not be as high for spontaneous femoral fractures than for fractures associated to a fall.

Late Weichselian local ice dome configuration and chronology in Northwestern Svalbard: early thinning, late retreat

The chronology and configuration of the Svalbard Barents Sea Ice Sheet (SBSIS) during the Late Weichselian (LW) are based on few and geographically scattered data. Thus, the timing and configuration of the SBSIS has been a subject of extensive debate. We present provenance data of erratic boulders and cosmogenic 10Be ages of bedrock and boulders from Northwest Spitsbergen (NWS), Svalbard to determine the thickness, configuration and chronology during the LW. We sampled bedrock and boulders of mountain summits and summit slopes, along with erratic boulders from coastal locations around NWS. We suggest that a local ice dome over central NWS during LW drained radially in all directions. Provenance data from erratic boulders from northern coastal lowland Reinsdyrflya suggest northeastward ice flow through Liefdefjorden. 10Be ages of high-elevation erratic boulders in central NWS (687–836 m above sea level) ranging from 18.3 ± 1.3 ka to 21.7 ± 1.4 ka, indicate that the centre of a local ice dome was at least 300 m thicker than at present. 10Be ages of all high-elevation erratics (>400 m above sea level, central and coastal locations) indicate the onset of ice dome thinning at 25–20 ka. 10Be ages from erratic boulders on Reinsdyrflya ranging from 11.1 ± 0.8 ka to 21.4 ± 1.7 ka, indicate an ice cover over the entire Reinsdyrflya during LW and a complete deglaciation prior to the Holocene, but apparently later than the thinning in the mountains. Lack of moraine deposits, but the preservation of beach terraces, suggest that the ice covering this peninsula possibly was cold-based and that Reinsdyrflya was part of an inter ice-stream area covered by slow-flowing ice, as opposed to the adjacent fjord, which possibly was filled by a fast-flowing ice stream. Despite the early thinning of the ice sheet (25–20 ka) we find a later timing of deglaciation of the fjords and the distal lowlands. Several bedrock samples (10Be) from vertical transects in the central mountains of NWS pre-date the LW, and suggest either ice free or pervasive cold-based ice conditions. Our reconstruction is aligned with the previously suggested hypothesis that a complex multi-dome ice-sheet-configuration occupied Svalbard and the Barents Sea during LW, with numerous drainage basins feeding fast ice streams, separated by slow flowing, possibly cold-based, inter ice-stream areas.

The tumor border configuration of colorectal cancer as a histomorphological prognostic indicator.

Histomorphological features of colorectal cancers (CRC) represent valuable prognostic indicators for clinical decision making. The invasive margin is a central feature for prognostication shaped by the complex processes governing tumor-host interaction. Assessment of the tumor border can be performed on standard paraffin sections and shows promise for integration into the diagnostic routine of gastrointestinal pathology. In aggressive CRC, an extensive dissection of host tissue is seen with loss of a clear tumor-host interface. This pattern, termed "infiltrative tumor border configuration" has been consistently associated with poor survival outcome and early disease recurrence of CRC-patients. In addition, infiltrative tumor growth is frequently associated with presence of adverse clinicopathological features and molecular alterations related to aggressive tumor behavior including BRAFV600 mutation. In contrast, a well-demarcated "pushing" tumor border is seen frequently in CRC-cases with low risk for nodal and distant metastasis. A pushing border is a feature frequently associated with mismatch-repair deficiency and can be used to identify patients for molecular testing. Consequently, assessment of the tumor border configuration as an additional prognostic factor is recommended by the AJCC/UICC to aid the TNM-classification. To promote the assessment of the tumor border configuration in standard practice, consensus criteria on the defining features and method of assessment need to be developed further and tested for inter-observer reproducibility. The development of a standardized quantitative scoring system may lay the basis for verification of the prognostic associations of the tumor growth pattern in multivariate analyses and clinical trials. This article provides a comprehensive review of the diagnostic features, clinicopathological associations, and molecular alterations associated with the tumor border configuration in early stage and advanced CRC.

Developmental self-construction and -configuration of functional neocortical neuronal networks.

The prenatal development of neural circuits must provide sufficient configuration to support at least a set of core postnatal behaviors. Although knowledge of various genetic and cellular aspects of development is accumulating rapidly, there is less systematic understanding of how these various processes play together in order to construct such functional networks. Here we make some steps toward such understanding by demonstrating through detailed simulations how a competitive co-operative ('winner-take-all', WTA) network architecture can arise by development from a single precursor cell. This precursor is granted a simplified gene regulatory network that directs cell mitosis, differentiation, migration, neurite outgrowth and synaptogenesis. Once initial axonal connection patterns are established, their synaptic weights undergo homeostatic unsupervised learning that is shaped by wave-like input patterns. We demonstrate how this autonomous genetically directed developmental sequence can give rise to self-calibrated WTA networks, and compare our simulation results with biological data.

Reglucosylation of the Benzoxazinoid DIMBOA with Inversion of Stereochemical Configuration is a Detoxification Strategy in Lepidopteran Herbivores

Benzoxazinoids are chemical defenses against herbivores and are produced by many members of the grass family. These compounds are stored as stable glucosides in plant cells and require the activity of glucosidases to release the corresponding toxic aglucones. In maize leaves, the most abundant benzoxazinoid is (2R)-DIMBOA-Glc, which is converted into the toxic DIMBOA upon herbivory. The ways in which three Spodoptera species metabolize this toxin were investigated. (2S)-DIMBOA-Glc, an epimer of the initial plant compound, was observed in the insect frass, and the associated glucosyltransferase activity was detected in the insect gut tissue. The epimeric glucoside produced by the insect was found to be no longer reactive towards plant glucosidases and thus cannot be converted into a toxin. Stereoselective reglucosylation thus represents a detoxification strategy in Spodoptera species that might help to explain their success as agricultural pests on benzoxazinoid-containing crops.

Tumour border configuration in colorectal cancer: proposal for an alternative scoring system based on the percentage of infiltrating margin.

AIMS Information on tumour border configuration (TBC) in colorectal cancer (CRC) is currently not included in most pathology reports, owing to lack of reproducibility and/or established evaluation systems. The aim of this study was to investigate whether an alternative scoring system based on the percentage of the infiltrating component may represent a reliable method for assessing TBC. METHODS AND RESULTS Two hundred and fifteen CRCs with complete clinicopathological data were evaluated by two independent observers, both 'traditionally' by assigning the tumours into pushing/infiltrating/mixed categories, and alternatively by scoring the percentage of infiltrating margin. With the pushing/infiltrating/mixed pattern method, interobserver agreement (IOA) was moderate (κ = 0.58), whereas with the percentage of infiltrating margins method, IOA was excellent (intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.86). A higher percentage of infiltrating margin correlated with adverse features such as higher grade (P = 0.0025), higher pT (P = 0.0007), pN (P = 0.0001) and pM classification (P = 0.0063), high-grade tumour budding (P < 0.0001), lymphatic invasion (P < 0.0001), vascular invasion (P = 0.0032), and shorter survival (P = 0.0008), and was significantly associated with an increased probability of lymph node metastasis (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Information on TBC gives additional prognostic value to pathology reports on CRC. The novel proposed scoring system, by using the percentage of infiltrating margin, outperforms the 'traditional' way of reporting TBC. Additionally, it is reproducible and simple to apply, and can therefore be easily integrated into daily diagnostic practice.