Synoptic Analysis of the New York March 1888 Blizzard

The meteorological circumstances that led to the Blizzard of March 1888 that hit New York are analysed in Version 2 of the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis” (20CR). The potential of this data set for studying historical extreme events has not yet been fully explored. A detailed analysis of 20CR data alongside other data sources (including historical instrumental data and weather maps) for historical extremes such as the March 1888 blizzard may give insights into the limitations of 20CR. We find that 20CR reproduces the circulation pattern as well as the temperature development very well. Regarding the absolute values of variables such as snow fall or minimum and maximum surface pressure, there is anunderestimation of the observed extremes, which may be due to the low spatial resolution of 20CR and the fact that only the ensemble mean is considered. Despite this drawback, the dataset allows us to gain new information due to its complete spatial and temporal coverage.

Different Prognostic Value of Functional Right Ventricular Parameters in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy/Dysplasia

BACKGROUND -The value of standard two-dimensional transthoracic echocardiographic (TTE) parameters for risk stratification in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy/dysplasia (ARVC/D) is controversial. METHODS AND RESULTS -We investigated the impact of right ventricular fractional area change (FAC) and tricuspid annulus plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) for prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) defined as the occurrence of cardiac death, heart transplantation, survived sudden cardiac death, ventricular fibrillation, sustained ventricular tachycardia or arrhythmogenic syncope. Among 70 patients who fulfilled the 2010 ARVC/D Task Force Criteria and underwent baseline TTE, 37 (53%) patients experienced a MACE during a median follow-up period of 5.3 (IQR 1.8-9.8) years. Average values for FAC, TAPSE, and TAPSE indexed to body surface area (BSA) decreased over time (p=0.03 for FAC, p=0.03 for TAPSE and p=0.01 for TAPSE/BSA, each vs. baseline). In contrast, median right ventricular end-diastolic area (RVEDA) increased (p=0.001 vs. baseline). Based on the results of Kaplan-Meier estimates, the time between baseline TTE and experiencing MACE was significantly shorter for patients with FAC <23% (p<0.001), TAPSE <17mm (p=0.02) or right atrial (RA) short axis/BSA ≥25mm/m(2) (p=0.04) at baseline. A reduced FAC constituted the strongest predictor of MACE (hazard ratio 1.08 per 1% decrease; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.12; p<0.001) on bivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS -This long-term observational study indicates that TAPSE and dilation of right-sided cardiac chambers are associated with an increased risk for MACE in ARVC/D patients with advanced disease and a high risk for adverse events. However, FAC is the strongest echocardiographic predictor of adverse outcome in these patients. Our data advocate a role for TTE in risk stratification in patients with ARVC/D, although our results may not be generalizable to lower risk ARVC/D cohorts.

Usefulness of inducible ventricular tachycardia to predict long-term adverse outcomes in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy

The role of the electrophysiologic (EP) study for risk stratification in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy is controversial. We investigated the role of inducible sustained monomorphic ventricular tachycardia (SMVT) for the prediction of an adverse outcome (AO), defined as the occurrence of cardiac death, heart transplantation, sudden cardiac death, ventricular fibrillation, ventricular tachycardia with hemodynamic compromise or syncope. Of 62 patients who fulfilled the 2010 Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy Task Force criteria and underwent an EP study, 30 (48%) experienced an adverse outcome during a median follow-up of 9.8 years. SMVT was inducible in 34 patients (55%), 22 (65%) of whom had an adverse outcome. In contrast, in 28 patients without inducible SMVT, 8 (29%) had an adverse outcome. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed an event-free survival benefit for patients without inducible SMVT (log-rank p = 0.008) with a cumulative survival free of an adverse outcome of 72% (95% confidence interval [CI] 56% to 92%) in the group without inducible SMVT compared to 26% (95% CI 14% to 50%) in the other group after 10 years. The inducibility of SMVT during the EP study (hazard ratio [HR] 2.99, 95% CI 1.23 to 7.27), nonadherence (HR 2.74, 95% CI 1.3 to 5.77), and heart failure New York Heart Association functional class II and III (HR 2.25, 95% CI 1.04 to 4.87) were associated with an adverse outcome on univariate Cox regression analysis. The inducibility of SMVT (HR 2.52, 95% CI 1.03 to 6.16, p = 0.043) and nonadherence (HR 2.34, 95% CI 1.1 to 4.99, p = 0.028) remained as significant predictors on multivariate analysis. This long-term observational data suggest that SMVT inducibility during EP study might predict an adverse outcome in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy, advocating a role for EP study in risk stratification.

Effect of sedation level on the prevalence of delirium when assessed with CAM-ICU and ICDSC

Purpose We hypothesized that reduced arousability (Richmond Agitation Sedation Scale, RASS, scores −2 to −3) for any reason during delirium assessment increases the apparent prevalence of delirium in intensive care patients. To test this hypothesis, we assessed delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method for the Intensive Care Unit (CAM-ICU) and Intensive Care Delirium Screening Checklist (ICDSC) in intensive care patients during sedation stops, and related the findings to the level of sedation, as assessed with RASS score. Methods We assessed delirium in 80 patients with ICU stay longer than 48 h using CAM-ICU and ICDSC during daily sedation stops. Sedation was assessed using RASS. The effect of including patients with a RASS of −2 and −3 during sedation stop (“light to moderate sedation”, eye contact less than 10 s or not at all, respectively) on prevalence of delirium was analyzed. Results A total of 467 patient days were assessed. The proportion of CAM-ICU-positive evaluations decreased from 53 to 31 % (p < 0.001) if assessments from patients at RASS −2/−3 (22 % of all assessments) were excluded. Similarly, the number of positive ICDSC results decreased from 51 to 29 % (p < 0.001). Conclusions Sedation per se can result in positive items of both CAM-ICU and ICDSC, and therefore in a diagnosis of delirium. Consequently, apparent prevalence of delirium is dependent on how a depressed level of consciousness after sedation stop is interpreted (delirium vs persisting sedation). We suggest that any reports on delirium using these assessment tools should be stratified for a sedation score during the assessment.

Comparative effects of teriparatide and ibandronate on spine bone mineral density (BMD) and microarchitecture (TBS) in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis: a 2-year open-label study

UNLABELLED Treatment effects over 2 years of teriparatide vs. ibandronate in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis were compared using lumbar spine bone mineral density (BMD) and trabecular bone score (TBS). Teriparatide induced larger increases in BMD and TBS compared to ibandronate, suggesting a more pronounced effect on bone microarchitecture of the bone anabolic drug. INTRODUCTION The trabecular bone score (TBS) is an index of bone microarchitecture, independent of bone mineral density (BMD), calculated from anteroposterior spine dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans. The potential role of TBS for monitoring treatment response with bone-active substances is not established. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of recombinant human 1-34 parathyroid hormone (teriparatide) and the bisphosphonate ibandronate (IBN), on lumbar spine (LS) BMD and TBS in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. METHODS Two patient groups with matched age, body mass index (BMI), and baseline LS BMD, treated with either daily subcutaneous teriparatide (N = 65) or quarterly intravenous IBN (N = 122) during 2 years and with available LS BMD measurements at baseline and 2 years after treatment initiation were compared. RESULTS Baseline characteristics (overall mean ± SD) were similar between groups in terms of age 67.9 ± 7.4 years, body mass index 23.8 ± 3.8 kg/m(2), BMD L1-L4 0.741 ± 0.100 g/cm(2), and TBS 1.208 ± 0.100. Over 24 months, teriparatide induced a significantly larger increase in LS BMD and TBS than IBN (+7.6 % ± 6.3 vs. +2.9 % ± 3.3 and +4.3 % ± 6.6 vs. +0.3 % ± 4.1, respectively; P < 0.0001 for both). LS BMD and TBS were only weakly correlated at baseline (r (2) = 0.04) with no correlation between the changes in BMD and TBS over 24 months. CONCLUSIONS In postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, a 2-year treatment with teriparatide led to a significantly larger increase in LS BMD and TBS than IBN, suggesting that teriparatide had more pronounced effects on bone microarchitecture than IBN.

Persistence of endocrine disruption in zebrafish (Danio rerio) after discontinued exposure to the androgen 17β-trenbolone.

The aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of the androgenic endocrine disruptor 17β-trenbolone on the sexual development of zebrafish (Danio rerio) with special emphasis on the question of whether adverse outcomes of developmental exposure are reversible or persistent. An exposure scenario including a recovery phase was chosen to assess the potential reversibility of androgenic effects. Zebrafish were exposed to environmentally relevant concentrations of 17β-trenbolone (1 ng/L-30 ng/L) from fertilization until completion of gonad sexual differentiation (60 d posthatch). Thereafter, exposure was either followed by 40 d of recovery in clean water or continued until 100 d posthatch, the age when zebrafish start being able to reproduce. Fish exposed for 100 d to 10 ng/L or 30 ng/L 17β-trenbolone were masculinized at different biological effect levels, as evidenced from a concentration-dependent shift of the sex ratio toward males as well as a significantly increased maturity of testes. Gonad morphological masculinization occurred in parallel with decreased vitellogenin concentrations in both sexes. Changes of brain aromatase (cyp19b) mRNA expression showed no consistent trend with respect to either exposure duration or concentration. Gonad morphological masculinization as well as the decrease of vitellogenin persisted after depuration over 40 d in clean water. This lack of recovery suggests that androgenic effects on sexual development of zebrafish are irreversible.

Reversibility of endocrine disruption in zebrafish (Danio rerio) after discontinued exposure to the estrogen 17α-ethinylestradiol.

The aim of the present study was to investigate the persistence of the feminizing effects of discontinued 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2) exposure on zebrafish (Danio rerio). An exposure scenario covering the sensitive phase of sexual differentiation, as well as final gonad maturation was chosen to examine the estrogenic effects on sexual development of zebrafish. Two exposure scenarios were compared: continuous exposure to environmentally relevant concentrations (0.1-10 ng/L EE2) up to 100 days post-hatch (dph) and developmental exposure up to 60 dph, followed by 40 days of depuration in clean water. The persistence of effects was investigated at different biological organization levels from mRNA to population-relevant endpoints to cover a broad range of important parameters. EE2 had a strong feminizing and inhibiting effect on the sexual development of zebrafish. Brain aromatase (cyp19b) mRNA expression showed no clear response, but vitellogenin levels were significantly elevated, gonad maturation and body growth were inhibited in both genders, and sex ratios were skewed towards females and undifferentiated individuals. To a large extent, all of these effects were reversed after 40 days of recovery, leading to the conclusion that exposure to the estrogen EE2 results in very strong, but reversible underdevelopment and feminization of zebrafish. The present study is the first to show this reversibility at different levels of organization, which gives better insight into the mechanistic basis of estrogenic effects in zebrafish.

Anke von Kügelgen on Contemporary Islamic Thought

Anke von Kügelgen joins Peter to discuss developments over the last century or so, including attitudes towards past thinkers like Avicenna, Averroes and Ibn Taymiyya. This interview is based on research conducted to write a forthcoming book on Philosophy in the Islamic world in the 19th and 20th centuries, to be co-edited by Prof von Kügelgen together Professor Ulrich Rudolph, and Michael Frey as redactor. It will be the fourth volume of a German Overview of the whole history of philosophy in the Islamic world (Grundriss der Geschichte der Philosophie in der islamischen Welt, published by Schwabe Verlag in Basel). Prof von Kügelgen would like to recognize the contribution of her collaborators: her main partner for the philosophy in the Arab speaking countries is Sarhan Dhouib, originally from Tunesia, now at the University of Kassel. For Muslim Southasia, she is working with Jan Peter Hartung from the SOAS in London, and for Iran, Reza Hajatpour, Katajun Amirpur and Roman Seidel who are all at present at German Universities. The part on Philosophy in the Ottoman Empire is written by Sait Özervarlı from the Yildiz Teknik Universitesi in Istanbul and for Turkey by Christoph Herzog from the University of Bamberg.