Deep ocean ventilation, carbon isotopes, marine sedimentation and the deglacial CO2 rise

The link between the atmospheric CO2 level and the ventilation state of the deep ocean is an important building block of the key hypotheses put forth to explain glacial-interglacial CO2 fluctuations. In this study, we systematically examine the sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 and its carbon isotope composition to changes in deep ocean ventilation, the ocean carbon pumps, and sediment formation in a global three-dimensional ocean-sediment carbon cycle model. Our results provide support for the hypothesis that a break up of Southern Ocean stratification and invigorated deep ocean ventilation were the dominant drivers for the early deglacial CO2 rise of ~35 ppm between the Last Glacial Maximum and 14.6 ka BP. Another rise of 10 ppm until the end of the Holocene is attributed to carbonate compensation responding to the early deglacial change in ocean circulation. Our reasoning is based on a multi-proxy analysis which indicates that an acceleration of deep ocean ventilation during the early deglaciation is not only consistent with recorded atmospheric CO2 but also with the reconstructed opal sedimentation peak in the Southern Ocean at around 16 ka BP, the record of atmospheric δ13CCO2, and the reconstructed changes in the Pacific CaCO3 saturation horizon.

Deep ocean ventilation, carbon isotopes, marine sedimentation and the deglacial CO2 rise

The link between the atmospheric CO2 level and the ventilation state of the deep ocean is an important building block of the key hypotheses put forth to explain glacial-interglacial CO2 fluctuations. In this study, we systematically examine the sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 and its carbon isotope composition to changes in deep ocean ventilation, the ocean carbon pumps, and sediment formation in a global 3-D ocean-sediment carbon cycle model. Our results provide support for the hypothesis that a break up of Southern Ocean stratification and invigorated deep ocean ventilation were the dominant drivers for the early deglacial CO2 rise of ~35 ppm between the Last Glacial Maximum and 14.6 ka BP. Another rise of 10 ppm until the end of the Holocene is attributed to carbonate compensation responding to the early deglacial change in ocean circulation. Our reasoning is based on a multi-proxy analysis which indicates that an acceleration of deep ocean ventilation during early deglaciation is not only consistent with recorded atmospheric CO2 but also with the reconstructed opal sedimentation peak in the Southern Ocean at around 16 ka BP, the record of atmospheric δ13CCO2, and the reconstructed changes in the Pacific CaCO3 saturation horizon.

Allowable carbon emissions lowered by multiple climate targets

Climate targets are designed to inform policies that would limit the magnitude and impacts of climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances. The target that is currently recognized by most world governments1 places a limit of two degrees Celsius on the global mean warming since preindustrial times. This would require large sustained reductions in carbon dioxide emissions during the twenty-first century and beyond2, 3, 4. Such a global temperature target, however, is not sufficient to control many other quantities, such as transient sea level rise5, ocean acidification6, 7 and net primary production on land8, 9. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) in an observation-informed Bayesian approach, we show that allowable carbon emissions are substantially reduced when multiple climate targets are set. We take into account uncertainties in physical and carbon cycle model parameters, radiative efficiencies10, climate sensitivity11 and carbon cycle feedbacks12, 13 along with a large set of observational constraints. Within this framework, we explore a broad range of economically feasible greenhouse gas scenarios from the integrated assessment community14, 15, 16, 17 to determine the likelihood of meeting a combination of specific global and regional targets under various assumptions. For any given likelihood of meeting a set of such targets, the allowable cumulative emissions are greatly reduced from those inferred from the temperature target alone. Therefore, temperature targets alone are unable to comprehensively limit the risks from anthropogenic emissions.

Risk adjustment in aging societies

Background In Switzerland, age is the predominant driver of solidarity transfers in risk adjustment (RA). Concerns have been voiced regarding growing imbalances in cost sharing between young and old insured due to demographic changes (larger fraction of elderly >65 years and rise in average age). Particularly young adults aged 19–25 with limited incomes have to shoulder increasing solidarity burdens. Between 1996 and 2011, monthly intergenerational solidarity payments for young adults have doubled from CHF 87 to CHF 182, which corresponds to the highest absolute transfer increase of all age groups. Results By constructing models for age-specific RA growth and for calculating the lifetime sum of RA transfers we investigated the causes and consequences of demographic changes on RA payments. The models suggest that the main driver for RA increases in the past was below average health care expenditure (HCE) growth in young adults, which was only half as high (average 2% per year) compared with older adults (average 4% per year). Shifts in age group distributions were only accountable for 2% of the CHF 95 rise in RA payments. Despite rising risk adjustment debts for young insured the balance of lifetime transfers remains positive as long as HCE growth rates are greater than the discount rate used in this model (3%). Moreover, the life-cycle model predicts that the lifetime rate of return on RA payments may even be further increased by demographic changes. Nevertheless, continued growth of RA contributions may overwhelm vulnerable age groups such as young adults. We therefore propose methods to limit the burden of social health insurance for specific age groups (e.g. young adults in Switzerland) by capping solidarity payments. Conclusions Taken together, our mathematical modelling framework helps to gain a better understanding of how demographic changes interact with risk adjustment and how redistribution of funds between age groups can be controlled without inducing further selection incentives. Those methods can help to construct more equitable systems of health financing in light of population aging.

Imminent ocean acidification in the Arctic projected with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

Ocean acidification from the uptake of anthropogenic carbon is simulated for the industrial period and IPCC SRES emission scenarios A2 and B1 with a global coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Earlier studies identified seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite, a mineral phase of calcium carbonate, as a key variable governing impacts on corals and other shell-forming organisms. Globally in the A2 scenario, water saturated by more than 300%, considered suitable for coral growth, vanishes by 2070 AD (CO2≈630 ppm), and the ocean volume fraction occupied by saturated water decreases from 42% to 25% over this century. The largest simulated pH changes worldwide occur in Arctic surface waters, where hydrogen ion concentration increases by up to 185% (ΔpH=−0.45). Projected climate change amplifies the decrease in Arctic surface mean saturation and pH by more than 20%, mainly due to freshening and increased carbon uptake in response to sea ice retreat. Modeled saturation compares well with observation-based estimates along an Arctic transect and simulated changes have been corrected for remaining model-data differences in this region. Aragonite undersaturation in Arctic surface waters is projected to occur locally within a decade and to become more widespread as atmospheric CO2 continues to grow. The results imply that surface waters in the Arctic Ocean will become corrosive to aragonite, with potentially large implications for the marine ecosystem, if anthropogenic carbon emissions are not reduced and atmospheric CO2 not kept below 450 ppm.

An Ensemble Kalman Filter multi-tracer assimilation: Determining uncertain ocean model parameters for improved climate-carbon cycle projections

An Ensemble Kalman Filter is applied to assimilate observed tracer fields in various combinations in the Bern3D ocean model. Each tracer combination yields a set of optimal transport parameter values that are used in projections with prescribed CO2 stabilization pathways. The assimilation of temperature and salinity fields yields a too vigorous ventilation of the thermocline and the deep ocean, whereas the inclusion of CFC-11 and radiocarbon improves the representation of physical and biogeochemical tracers and of ventilation time scales. Projected peak uptake rates and cumulative uptake of CO2 by the ocean are around 20% lower for the parameters determined with CFC-11 and radiocarbon as additional target compared to those with salinity and temperature only. Higher surface temperature changes are simulated in the Greenland–Norwegian–Iceland Sea and in the Southern Ocean when CFC-11 is included in the Ensemble Kalman model tuning. These findings highlights the importance of ocean transport calibration for the design of near-term and long-term CO2 emission mitigation strategies and for climate projections.

Daily ozone cycle in the stratosphere: global, regional and seasonal behaviour modelled with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) is utilised to study the daily ozone cycle and underlying photochemical and dynamical processes. The analysis is focused on the daily ozone cycle in the middle stratosphere at 5 hPa where satellite-based trend estimates of stratospheric ozone are most biased by diurnal sampling effects and drifting satellite orbits. The simulated ozone cycle shows a minimum after sunrise and a maximum in the late afternoon. Further, a seasonal variation of the daily ozone cycle in the stratosphere was found. Depending on season and latitude, the peak-to-valley difference of the daily ozone cycle varies mostly between 3 and 5% (0.4 ppmv) with respect to the midnight ozone volume mixing ratio. The maximal variation of 15% (0.8 ppmv) is found at the polar circle in summer. The global pattern of the strength of the daily ozone cycle is mainly governed by the solar zenith angle and the sunshine duration. In addition, we find synoptic-scale variations in the strength of the daily ozone cycle. These variations are often anti-correlated to regional temperature anomalies and are due to the temperature dependence of the rate coefficients k2 and k3 of the Chapman cycle reactions. Further, the NOx catalytic cycle counteracts the accumulation of ozone during daytime and leads to an anti-correlation between anomalies in NOx and the strength of the daily ozone cycle. Similarly, ozone recombines with atomic oxygen which leads to an anti-correlation between anomalies in ozone abundance and the strength of the daily ozone cycle. At higher latitudes, an increase of the westerly (easterly) wind cause a decrease (increase) in the sunshine duration of an air parcel leading to a weaker (stronger) daily ozone cycle.

A Drosophila XPD model links cell cycle coordination with neuro-development and suggests links to cancer

XPD functions in transcription, DNA repair and in cell cycle control. Mutations in human XPD (also known as ERCC2) mainly cause three clinical phenotypes: xeroderma pigmentosum (XP), Cockayne syndrome (XP/CS) and trichothiodystrophy (TTD), and only XP patients have a high predisposition to developing cancer. Hence, we developed a fly model to obtain novel insights into the defects caused by individual hypomorphic alleles identified in human XP-D patients. This model revealed that the mutations that displayed the greatest in vivo UV sensitivity in Drosophila did not correlate with those that led to tumor formation in humans. Immunoprecipitations followed by targeted quantitative MS/MS analysis showed how different xpd mutations affected the formation or stability of different transcription factor IIH (TFIIH) subcomplexes. The XP mutants most clearly linked to high cancer risk, Xpd R683W and R601L, showed a reduced interaction with the core TFIIH and also an abnormal interaction with the Cdk-activating kinase (CAK) complex. Interestingly, these two XP alleles additionally displayed high levels of chromatin loss and free centrosomes during the rapid nuclear division phase of the Drosophila embryo. Finally, the xpd mutations showing defects in the coordination of cell cycle timing during the Drosophila embryonic divisions correlated with those human mutations that cause the neurodevelopmental abnormalities and developmental growth defects observed in XP/CS and TTD patients.

Impaired Cell Cycle Regulation in a Natural Equine Model of Asthma.

Recurrent airway obstruction (RAO) is a common and potentially debilitating lower airway disease in horses, which shares many similarities with human asthma. In susceptible horses RAO exacerbation is caused by environmental allergens and irritants present in hay dust. The objective of this study was the identification of genes and pathways involved in the pathology of RAO by global transcriptome analyses in stimulated peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). We performed RNA-seq on PBMCs derived from 40 RAO affected and 45 control horses belonging to three cohorts of Warmblood horses: two half-sib families and one group of unrelated horses. PBMCs were stimulated with hay dust extract, lipopolysaccharides, a recombinant parasite antigen, or left unstimulated. The total dataset consisted of 561 individual samples. We detected significant differences in the expression profiles between RAO and control horses. Differential expression (DE) was most marked upon stimulation with hay dust extract. An important novel finding was a strong upregulation of CXCL13 together with many genes involved in cell cycle regulation in stimulated samples from RAO affected horses, in addition to changes in the expression of several HIF-1 transcription factor target genes. The RAO condition alters systemic changes observed as differential expression profiles of PBMCs. Those changes also depended on the cohort and stimulation of the samples and were dominated by genes involved in immune cell trafficking, development, and cell cycle regulation. Our findings indicate an important role of CXCL13, likely macrophage or Th17 derived, and the cell cycle regulator CDC20 in the immune response in RAO.

Sleep-Wake Cycle Dysfunction in the TgCRND8 Mouse Model of Alzheimer's Disease: From Early to Advanced Pathological Stages.

In addition to cognitive decline, individuals affected by Alzheimer's disease (AD) can experience important neuropsychiatric symptoms including sleep disturbances. We characterized the sleep-wake cycle in the TgCRND8 mouse model of AD, which overexpresses a mutant human form of amyloid precursor protein resulting in high levels of β-amyloid and plaque formation by 3 months of age. Polysomnographic recordings in freely-moving mice were conducted to study sleep-wake cycle architecture at 3, 7 and 11 months of age and corresponding levels of β-amyloid in brain regions regulating sleep-wake states were measured. At all ages, TgCRND8 mice showed increased wakefulness and reduced non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep during the resting and active phases. Increased wakefulness in TgCRND8 mice was accompanied by a shift in the waking power spectrum towards fast frequency oscillations in the beta (14-20 Hz) and low gamma range (20-50 Hz). Given the phenotype of hyperarousal observed in TgCRND8 mice, the role of noradrenergic transmission in the promotion of arousal, and previous work reporting an early disruption of the noradrenergic system in TgCRND8, we tested the effects of the alpha-1-adrenoreceptor antagonist, prazosin, on sleep-wake patterns in TgCRND8 and non-transgenic (NTg) mice. We found that a lower dose (2 mg/kg) of prazosin increased NREM sleep in NTg but not in TgCRND8 mice, whereas a higher dose (5 mg/kg) increased NREM sleep in both genotypes, suggesting altered sensitivity to noradrenergic blockade in TgCRND8 mice. Collectively our results demonstrate that amyloidosis in TgCRND8 mice is associated with sleep-wake cycle dysfunction, characterized by hyperarousal, validating this model as a tool towards understanding the relationship between β-amyloid overproduction and disrupted sleep-wake patterns in AD.

Expression, localization, and functional model of cholesterol transporters in lactating and nonlactating mammary tissues of murine, bovine, and human origin

Members of the ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporters play a pivotal role in cellular lipid efflux. To identify candidate cholesterol transporters implicated in lipid homeostasis and mammary gland (MG) physiology, we compared expression and localization of ABCA1, ABCG1, and ABCA7 and their regulatory genes in mammary tissues of different species during the pregnancy-lactation cycle. Murine and bovine mammary glands (MGs) were investigated during different functional stages. The abundance of mRNAs was determined by quantitative RT-PCR. Furthermore, transporter proteins were localized in murine, bovine, and human MGs by immunohistochemistry. In the murine MG, ABCA1 mRNA abundance was elevated during nonlactating compared with lactating stages, whereas ABCA7 and ABCA1 mRNA profiles were not altered. In the bovine MG, ABCA1, ABCG1, and ABCA7 mRNAs abundances were increased during nonlactating stages compared with lactation. Furthermore, associations between mRNA levels of transporters and their regulatory genes LXRalpha, PPARgamma, and SREBPs were found. ABCA1, ABCG1, and ABCA7 proteins were localized in glandular MG epithelial cells (MEC) during lactation, whereas during nonlactating stages, depending on species, the proteins showed distinct localization patterns in MEC and adipocytes. Our results demonstrate that ABCA1, ABCG1, and ABCA7 are differentially expressed between lactation and nonlactating stages and in association with regulatory genes. Combined expression and localization data suggest that the selected cholesterol transporters are universal MG transporters involved in transport and storage of cholesterol and in lipid homeostasis of MEC. Because of the species-specific expression patterns of transporters in mammary tissue, mechanisms of cholesterol homeostasis seem to be differentially regulated between species.