The past ecology of Abies alba provides new perspectives on future responses of silver fir forests to global warming

Paleoecology can provide valuable insights into the ecology of species that complement observation and experiment-based assessments of climate impact dynamics. New paleoecological records (e.g., pollen, macrofossils) from the Italian Peninsula suggest a much wider climatic niche of the important European tree species Abies alba (silver fir) than observed in its present spatial range. To explore this discrepancy between current and past distribution of the species, we analyzed climatic data (temperature, precipitation, frost, humidity, sunshine) and vegetation-independent paleoclimatic reconstructions (e.g., lake levels, chironomids) and use global coupled carbon-cycle climate (NCAR CSM1.4) and dynamic vegetation (LandClim) modeling. The combined evidence suggests that during the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago), prior to humanization of vegetation, A. alba formed forests under conditions that exceeded the modern (1961-1990) upper temperature limit of the species by 5-7°C (July means). Annual precipitation during this natural period was comparable to today (>700-800 mm), with drier summers and wetter winters. In the meso-Mediterranean to sub-Mediterranean forests A. alba co-occurred with thermophilous taxa such as Quercus ilex, Q. pubescens, Olea europaea, Phillyrea, Arbutus, Cistus, Tilia, Ulmus, Acer, Hedera helix, Ilex aquifolium, Taxus, and Vitis. Results from the last interglacial (ca. 130 000-115 000 BP), when human impact was negligible, corroborate the Holocene evidence. Thermophilous Mediterranean A. alba stands became extinct during the last 5000 years when land-use pressure and specifically excessive anthropogenic fire and browsing disturbance increased. Our results imply that the ecology of this key European tree species is not yet well understood. On the basis of the reconstructed realized climatic niche of the species, we anticipate that the future geographic range of A. alba may not contract regardless of migration success, even if climate should become significantly warmer than today with summer temperatures increasing by up to 5-7°C, as long as precipitation does not fall below 700-800 mm/yr, and anthropogenic disturbance (e.g., fire, browsing) does not become excessive. Our finding contradicts recent studies that projected range contractions under global-warming scenarios, but did not factor how millennia of human impacts reduced the realized climatic niche of A. alba.

Comparison of patients in three different rehabilitation settings after knee or hip arthroplasty: a natural observational, prospective study.

BACKGROUND Patients after primary hip or knee replacement surgery can benefit from postoperative treatment in terms of improvement of independence in ambulation, transfers, range of motion and muscle strength. After discharge from hospital, patients are referred to different treatment destination and modalities: intensive inpatient rehabilitation (IR), cure (medically prescribed stay at a convalescence center), or ambulatory treatment (AT) at home. The purpose of this study was to 1) measure functional health (primary outcome) and function relevant factors in patients with hip or knee arthroplasty and to compare them in relation to three postoperative management strategies: AT, Cure and IR and 2) compare the post-operative changes in patient's health status (between preoperative and the 6 month follow-up) for three rehabilitation settings. METHODS Natural observational, prospective two-center study with follow-up. Sociodemographic data and functional mobility tests, Timed Up and Go (TUG) and Iowa Level of Assistance Scale (ILOAS) of 201 patients were analysed before arthroplasty and at the end of acute hospital stay (mean duration of stay: 9.7 days +/- 3.9). Changes in health state were measured with the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) before and 6 months after arthroplasty. RESULTS Compared to patients referred for IR and Cure, patients referred for AT were significantly younger and less comorbid. Patients admitted to IR had the highest functional disability before arthroplasty. Before rehabilitation, mean TUG was 40.0 s in the IR group, 33.9 s in the Cure group, and 27.5 s in the AT group, and corresponding mean ILOAS was 16.0, 13.0 and 12.2 (50.0 = worst). At the 6 months follow-up, the corresponding effect sizes of the WOMAC global score were 1.32, 1.87, and 1.51 (>0 means improvement). CONCLUSIONS Age, comorbidity and functional disability are associated with referral for intensive inpatient rehabilitation after hip or knee arthroplasty and partly affect health changes after rehabilitation.

Deregulation strategies and its regulating effects: The case of the termination of Social Assistance for rejected asylum seekers in Switzerland

Deregulation strategies and their regulating effects: The case of the termination of Social Assistance for rejected asylum seekers in Switzerland. In Switzerland, rejected asylum seekers no longer have any residence rights. In 2003 the Swiss state decided to terminate the so far granted social assistance for people with a non-entry decision on their asylum request. In 2008 the termination of social assistance was expanded to all rejected asylum seekers. Nevertheless, facing the impossibility of deporting them, the Swiss state entitled this group of people to emergency assistance. It is a basic, which is stated in the Swiss Federal constitution. In this context, new structures were established specially for rejected asylum seekers. These structures had to be set up, financed, controlled, managed and legitimized. For example, collective centres were set up exclusively for rejected asylum seekers. In this speech, I want to analyze the political and bureaucratic process of terminating social assistance for rejected asylum seekers. The exclusion of rejected asylum seekers from social aid was embedded in a wider austerity program of the Federal State. The Federal Migration Office had been requested to save money. The main official goal was to reduce the support of these illegalized people, reduce any structures that would prolong their stay on Swiss ground and to set incentives so that they would leave the country on their own. But during the implementation, new regulating effects emerged. Drawing on ethnographic material, I will highlight these “messy procedures” (Sciortino 2004). First, I will analyze the means and goals developed by the Federal authorities while conceptualising the termination of social assistance. Second, I will focus on the new built structures and elaborate the practices and legitimating strategies of the authorities. As a conclusion, I will analyze the ambivalences of these processes which, at the end, established specific structures for the “unwanted”.