Simulating the impact of four control strategies on the population dynamics of Neospora caninum infection in Swiss dairy cattle

A dynamic deterministic simulation model was developed to assess the impact of different putative control strategies on the seroprevalence of Neospora caninum in female Swiss dairy cattle. The model structure comprised compartments of "susceptible" and "infected" animals (SI-model) and the cattle population was divided into 12 age classes. A reference model (Model 1) was developed to simulate the current (status quo) situation (present seroprevalence in Switzerland 12%), taking into account available demographic and seroprevalence data of Switzerland. Model 1 was modified to represent four putative control strategies: testing and culling of seropositive animals (Model 2), discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows (Model 3), chemotherapeutic treatment of calves from seropositive cows (Model 4), and vaccination of susceptible and infected animals (Model 5). Models 2-4 considered different sub-scenarios with regard to the frequency of diagnostic testing. Multivariable Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of uncertainty in input parameters. A policy of annual testing and culling of all seropositive cattle in the population reduced the seroprevalence effectively and rapidly from 12% to <1% in the first year of simulation. The control strategies with discontinued breeding with offspring from all seropositive cows, chemotherapy of calves and vaccination of all cattle reduced the prevalence more slowly than culling but were still very effective (reduction of prevalence below 2% within 11, 23 and 3 years of simulation, respectively). However, sensitivity analyses revealed that the effectiveness of these strategies depended strongly on the quality of the input parameters used, such as the horizontal and vertical transmission factors, the sensitivity of the diagnostic test and the efficacy of medication and vaccination. Finally, all models confirmed that it was not possible to completely eradicate N. caninum as long as the horizontal transmission process was not interrupted.

The influence of striking object characteristics on the impact energy.

A common form of violence investigated in legal medicine is blunt trauma caused by striking with different objects. The injuries and medical consequences have been widely examined, whereas the forces and especially the energies acting on impact have rarely been analyzed. This study focuses on how the impact energy of different striking objects depends on their characteristics. A total of 1170 measurements of horizontal strikes against a static and relatively heavy pendulum have been acquired with 13 volunteers. The main focus was laid on how the weight, the length, and the center of mass of the different striking objects influenced the striking energy. The results show average impact energies in the range of 67.3 up to 311.5 J for men with an optimum weight of about 1.3 kg with its center of mass in the far end quarter for a 1-m-long striking object. The average values for women range from 30 to 202.6 J, with an optimum weight between 1.65 and 2.2 kg and similar settings for the center of mass as the men. Also, the impact energies are getting higher with shorter object lengths and reach a maximum at a length of about 0.3 to 0.4 m. The male volunteers' impact energy was on average by 84.2 % higher than the values of the female volunteers, where the impact masses were very similar and the impact velocities played the key role.