Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: a new microphysics-based data set covering years 1600–present

As the understanding and representation of the impacts of volcanic eruptions on climate have improved in the last decades, uncertainties in the stratospheric aerosol forcing from large eruptions are now linked not only to visible optical depth estimates on a global scale but also to details on the size, latitude and altitude distributions of the stratospheric aerosols. Based on our understanding of these uncertainties, we propose a new model-based approach to generating a volcanic forcing for general circulation model (GCM) and chemistry–climate model (CCM) simulations. This new volcanic forcing, covering the 1600–present period, uses an aerosol microphysical model to provide a realistic, physically consistent treatment of the stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Twenty-six eruptions were modeled individually using the latest available ice cores aerosol mass estimates and historical data on the latitude and date of eruptions. The evolution of aerosol spatial and size distribution after the sulfur dioxide discharge are hence characterized for each volcanic eruption. Large variations are seen in hemispheric partitioning and size distributions in relation to location/date of eruptions and injected SO2 masses. Results for recent eruptions show reasonable agreement with observations. By providing these new estimates of spatial distributions of shortwave and long-wave radiative perturbations, this volcanic forcing may help to better constrain the climate model responses to volcanic eruptions in the 1600–present period. The final data set consists of 3-D values (with constant longitude) of spectrally resolved extinction coefficients, single scattering albedos and asymmetry factors calculated for different wavelength bands upon request. Surface area densities for heterogeneous chemistry are also provided.

Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors in clinical trials with historical control information.

Historical information is always relevant for clinical trial design. Additionally, if incorporated in the analysis of a new trial, historical data allow to reduce the number of subjects. This decreases costs and trial duration, facilitates recruitment, and may be more ethical. Yet, under prior-data conflict, a too optimistic use of historical data may be inappropriate. We address this challenge by deriving a Bayesian meta-analytic-predictive prior from historical data, which is then combined with the new data. This prospective approach is equivalent to a meta-analytic-combined analysis of historical and new data if parameters are exchangeable across trials. The prospective Bayesian version requires a good approximation of the meta-analytic-predictive prior, which is not available analytically. We propose two- or three-component mixtures of standard priors, which allow for good approximations and, for the one-parameter exponential family, straightforward posterior calculations. Moreover, since one of the mixture components is usually vague, mixture priors will often be heavy-tailed and therefore robust. Further robustness and a more rapid reaction to prior-data conflicts can be achieved by adding an extra weakly-informative mixture component. Use of historical prior information is particularly attractive for adaptive trials, as the randomization ratio can then be changed in case of prior-data conflict. Both frequentist operating characteristics and posterior summaries for various data scenarios show that these designs have desirable properties. We illustrate the methodology for a phase II proof-of-concept trial with historical controls from four studies. Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors alleviate prior-data conflicts ' they should encourage better and more frequent use of historical data in clinical trials.

Reversal of gender differences in Educational Attainment – historical analysis of the West German Case

Background information: During the late 1970s and the early 1980s, West Germany witnessed a reversal of gender differences in educational attainment, as females began to outperform males. Purpose: The main objective was to analyse which processes were behind the reversal of gender differences in educational attainment after 1945. The theoretical reflections and empirical evidence presented for the US context by DiPrete and Buchmann (Gender-specific trends in the value of education and the emerging gender gap in college completion, Demography 43: 1–24, 2006) and Buchmann, DiPrete, and McDaniel (Gender inequalities in education, Annual Review of Sociology 34: 319–37, 2008) are considered and applied to the West German context. It is suggested that the reversal of gender differences is a consequence of the change in female educational decisions, which are mainly related to labour market opportunities and not, as sometimes assumed, a consequence of a ‘boy’s crisis’. Sample: Several databases, such as the German General Social Survey, the German Socio-economic Panel and the German Life History Study, are employed for the longitudinal analysis of the educational and occupational careers of birth cohorts born in the twentieth century. Design and methods: Changing patterns of eligibility for university studies are analysed for successive birth cohorts and gender. Binary logistic regressions are employed for the statistical modelling of the individuals’ achievement, educational decision and likelihood for social mobility – reporting average marginal effects (AME). Results: The empirical results suggest that women’s better school achievement being constant across cohorts does not contribute to the explanation of the reversal of gender differences in higher education attainment, but the increase of benefits for higher education explains the changing educational decisions of women regarding their transition to higher education. Conclusions: The outperformance of females compared with males in higher education might have been initialised by several social changes, including the expansion of public employment, the growing demand for highly qualified female workers in welfare and service areas, the increasing returns of women’s increased education and training, and the improved opportunities for combining family and work outside the home. The historical data show that, in terms of (married) women’s increased labour market opportunities and female life-cycle labour force participation, the raising rates of women’s enrolment in higher education were – among other reasons – partly explained by their rising access to service class positions across birth cohorts, and the rise of their educational returns in terms of wages and long-term employment.

A simulation study on the statistical monitoring of condemnation rates from slaughterhouses for syndromic surveillance: an evaluation based on Swiss data

Syndromic surveillance (SyS) systems currently exploit various sources of health-related data, most of which are collected for purposes other than surveillance (e.g. economic). Several European SyS systems use data collected during meat inspection for syndromic surveillance of animal health, as some diseases may be more easily detected post-mortem than at their point of origin or during the ante-mortem inspection upon arrival at the slaughterhouse. In this paper we use simulation to evaluate the performance of a quasi-Poisson regression (also known as an improved Farrington) algorithm for the detection of disease outbreaks during post-mortem inspection of slaughtered animals. When parameterizing the algorithm based on the retrospective analyses of 6 years of historic data, the probability of detection was satisfactory for large (range 83-445 cases) outbreaks but poor for small (range 20-177 cases) outbreaks. Varying the amount of historical data used to fit the algorithm can help increasing the probability of detection for small outbreaks. However, while the use of a 0·975 quantile generated a low false-positive rate, in most cases, more than 50% of outbreak cases had already occurred at the time of detection. High variance observed in the whole carcass condemnations time-series, and lack of flexibility in terms of the temporal distribution of simulated outbreaks resulting from low reporting frequency (monthly), constitute major challenges for early detection of outbreaks in the livestock population based on meat inspection data. Reporting frequency should be increased in the future to improve timeliness of the SyS system while increased sensitivity may be achieved by integrating meat inspection data into a multivariate system simultaneously evaluating multiple sources of data on livestock health.

International survey of primary and revision total knee replacement

Purpose Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is currently the international standard of care for treating degenerative and rheumatologic knee joint disease, as well as certain knee joint fractures. We sought to answer the following three research questions: (1) What is the international variance in primary and revision TKA rates around the world? (2) How do patient demographics (e.g., age, gender) vary internationally? (3) How have the rates of TKA utilization changed over time? Methods The survey included 18 countries with a total population of 755 million, and an estimated 1,324,000 annual primary and revision total knee procedures. Ten national inpatient databases were queried for this study from Canada, the United States, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland. Inpatient data were also compared with published registry data for eight countries with operating arthroplasty registers (Denmark, England & Wales, Norway, Romania, Scotland, Sweden, Australia, and New Zealand). Results The average and median rate of primary and revision (combined) total knee replacement was 175 and 149 procedures/100,000 population, respectively, and ranged between 8.8 and 234 procedures/100,000 population. We observed that the procedure rate significantly increased over time for the countries in which historical data were available. The compound annual growth in the incidence of TKA ranged by country from 5.3% (France) to 17% (Portugal). We observed a nearly 27-fold range of TKA utilization rates between the 18 different countries included in the survey. Conclusion It is apparent from the results of this study that the demand for TKA has risen substantially over the past decade in countries around the world.

Interaction Between Nitrous Oxide, Sevoflurane, and Opioids: A Response Surface Approach

BACKGROUND:: The interaction of sevoflurane and opioids can be described by response surface modeling using the hierarchical model. We expanded this for combined administration of sevoflurane, opioids, and 66 vol.% nitrous oxide (N2O), using historical data on the motor and hemodynamic responsiveness to incision, the minimal alveolar concentration, and minimal alveolar concentration to block autonomic reflexes to nociceptive stimuli, respectively. METHODS:: Four potential actions of 66 vol.% N2O were postulated: (1) N2O is equivalent to A ng/ml of fentanyl (additive); (2) N2O reduces C50 of fentanyl by factor B; (3) N2O is equivalent to X vol.% of sevoflurane (additive); (4) N2O reduces C50 of sevoflurane by factor Y. These four actions, and all combinations, were fitted on the data using NONMEM (version VI, Icon Development Solutions, Ellicott City, MD), assuming identical interaction parameters (A, B, X, Y) for movement and sympathetic responses. RESULTS:: Sixty-six volume percentage nitrous oxide evokes an additive effect corresponding to 0.27 ng/ml fentanyl (A) with an additive effect corresponding to 0.54 vol.% sevoflurane (X). Parameters B and Y did not improve the fit. CONCLUSION:: The effect of nitrous oxide can be incorporated into the hierarchical interaction model with a simple extension. The model can be used to predict the probability of movement and sympathetic responses during sevoflurane anesthesia taking into account interactions with opioids and 66 vol.% N2O.

Germanic Mythology in Music: Cultural Memory and Conflict within the Framework of Modern Globalization

The multi-layered enactment of a national past in music has been strongly intertwined with the usage of mythological elements. Having often been compiled as a coherent narrative during the emergence of the European nation-states (like the Finnish Kalevala), the mythological material has often been perceived as a form of historical truth and national justification. This focal role is also apparent in various music genres ranging from folk revival to metal in post-1989 Europe. Within the globalized context, however, local-national interpretations can collide with earlier nationalist appropriations. This complex and sometimes politically conflicting situation becomes particularly evident with groups falling back on symbols and narrations that had previously been employed by Nazi-Germany. While Nazi-Germany had, among others, tried replace the Christmas tradition with elements and songs from Germanic (and other) mythological sources, modern Neo-Nazi music groups often employ central mythological names (like Odin or Tyr) and iconic elements (like Vikings and warriors) in song lyrics and CD cover designs. However, while many covers and lyrics are legally forbidden in Germany, Scandinavian and Baltic groups (like the Faroese Viking metal group Tyr and the Latvian pagan metal band Skyforger) employ similar elements of Norse mythology, which are often combined with traditional material. Discussing selected case studies, this paper highlights central discursive points of colliding historical-national associations and individual interpretations of the mythological elements in musical contexts. How far can the material be disassociated from the earlier historical political usage and instrumentalization? Is this necessary ? And how can the specific global-local conflict points be approached by a theoretical framework ?

A 170 year spring phenology index of plants in eastern China

Extending phenological records into the past is essential for the understanding of past ecological change and evaluating the effects of climate change on ecosystems. A growing body of historical phenological information is now available for Europe, North America, and Asia. In East Asia, long-term phenological series are still relatively scarce. This study extracted plant phenological observations from old diaries in the period 1834–1962. A spring phenology index (SPI) for the modern period (1963–2009) was defined as the mean flowering time of three shrubs (first flowering of Amygdalus davidiana and Cercis chinensis, 50% of full flowering of Paeonia suffruticosa) according to the data availability. Applying calibrated transfer functions from the modern period to the historical data, we reconstructed a continuous SPI time series across eastern China from 1834 to 2009. In the recent 30 years, the SPI is 2.1–6.3 days earlier than during any other consecutive 30 year period before 1970. A moving linear trend analysis shows that the advancing trend of SPI over the past three decades reaches upward of 4.1 d/decade, which exceeds all previously observed trends in the past 30 year period. In addition, the SPI series correlates significantly with spring (February to April) temperatures in the study area, with an increase in spring temperature of 1°C inducing an earlier SPI by 3.1 days. These shifts of SPI provide important information regarding regional vegetation-climate relationships, and they are helpful to assess long term of climate change impacts on biophysical systems and biodiversity.

Endovascular Treatment of Acute Stroke: Evolution and Selection of Techniques and Instruments Based on Thrombus Imaging.

Mechanical thrombectomy provides higher recanalization rates than intravenous or intra-arterial thrombolysis. Finally this has been shown to translate into improved clinical outcome in six multicentric randomized controlled trials. However, within cohorts the clinical outcomes may vary, depending on the endovascular techniques applied. Systems aiming mainly for thrombus fragmentation and lacking a protection against distal embolization have shown disappointing results when compared to recent stent-retriever studies or even to historical data on local arterial fibrinolysis. Procedure-related embolic events are usually graded as adverse events in interventional neuroradiology. In stroke, however, the clinical consequences of secondary emboli have so far mostly been neglected and attributed to progression of the stroke itself. We summarize the evolution of instruments and techniques for endovascular, image-guided, microneurosurgical recanalization in acute stroke, and discuss how to avoid procedure-related embolic complications.

Coherence and Elicitability

The risk of a financial position is usually summarized by a risk measure. As this risk measure has to be estimated from historical data, it is important to be able to verify and compare competing estimation procedures. In statistical decision theory, risk measures for which such verification and comparison is possible, are called elicitable. It is known that quantile-based risk measures such as value at risk are elicitable. In this paper, the existing result of the nonelicitability of expected shortfall is extended to all law-invariant spectral risk measures unless they reduce to minus the expected value. Hence, it is unclear how to perform forecast verification or comparison. However, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures does not reduce to minus the expected value. We show that it consists of certain expectiles.

English Dialect App

Do you pronounce the /r/ in 'arm'? Do you call a shelf a 'sheuf'? And what on earth is a 'hoddy-doddy'? There is extensive variation in English dialects: this is why your answers to such questions will allow this app to localize your broader dialect region on a map of England. Did your home dialect change over time? Our algorithm is based on historical data from the Survey of English Dialects. If it guesses where you are from correctly, your home dialect has probably remained stable over the past decades. If the guess is far off, however, it is probably because of dialect change. - Can we localize your dialect based on your pronunciation of 26 words? - Record your dialect and listen to recordings of other users and to historical dialect recordings! - Choose a pronunciation variant, e.g. 'sheuf', and discover where in England it is used...or choose a place and explore its dialect!

Effect of an intervertebral disk spacer on stiffness after monocortical screw/polymethylmethacrylate fixation in simulated and cadaveric canine cervical vertebral columns.

OBJECTIVE To determine the biomechanical effect of an intervertebral spacer on construct stiffness in a PVC model and cadaveric canine cervical vertebral columns stabilized with monocortical screws/polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA). STUDY DESIGN Biomechanical study. SAMPLE POPULATION PVC pipe; cadaveric canine vertebral columns. METHODS PVC model-PVC pipe was used to create a gap model mimicking vertebral endplate orientation and disk space width of large-breed canine cervical vertebrae; 6 models had a 4-mm gap with no spacer (PVC group 1); 6 had a PVC pipe ring spacer filling the gap (PCV group 2). Animals-large breed cadaveric canine cervical vertebral columns (C2-C7) from skeletally mature dogs without (cadaveric group 1, n = 6, historical data) and with an intervertebral disk spacer (cadaveric group 2, n = 6) were used. All PVC models and cadaver specimens were instrumented with monocortical titanium screws/PMMA. Stiffness of the 2 PVC groups was compared in extension, flexion, and lateral bending using non-destructive 4-point bend testing. Stiffness testing in all 3 directions was performed of the unaltered C4-C5 vertebral motion unit in cadaveric spines and repeated after placement of an intervertebral cortical allograft ring and instrumentation. Data were compared using a linear mixed model approach that also incorporated data from previously tested spines with the same screw/PMMA construct but without disk spacer (cadaveric group 1). RESULTS Addition of a spacer increased construct stiffness in both the PVC model (P < .001) and cadaveric vertebral columns (P < .001) compared to fixation without a spacer. CONCLUSIONS Addition of an intervertebral spacer significantly increased construct stiffness of monocortical screw/PMMA fixation.

Extreme River Floods in Western Switzerland and the Lake of Constance Region in the Period Prior to Instrumental Measurements

The floods that occurred on the Aare and Rhine rivers in May 2015 and the mostly successful handling of this event in terms of flood protection measures are a good reminder of how important it is to comprehend the causes and processes involved in such natural hazards. While the needed data series of gauge measurements and peak discharge calculations reach back to the 19th century, historical records dating further back in time can provide additional and useful information to help understanding extreme flood events and to evaluate prevention measures such as river dams and corrections undertaken prior to instrumental measurements. In my PhD project I will use a wide range of historical sources to assess and quantify past extreme flood events. It is part of the SNF-funded project “Reconstruction of the Genesis, Process and Impact of Major Pre-instrumental Flood Events of Major Swiss Rivers Including a Peak Discharge Quantification” and will cover the research locations Fribourg (Saane R.), Burgdorf (Emme R.), Thun, Bern (both Aare R.), and the Lake of Constance at the locations Lindau, Constance and Rorschach. My main goals are to provide a long time series of quantitative data for extreme flood events, to discuss the occurring changes in these data, and to evaluate the impact of the aforementioned human influences on the drainage system. Extracting information given in account books from the towns of Basel and Solothurn may also enable me to assess the frequency and seasonality of less severe river floods. Finally, historical information will be used for remodeling the historical hydrological regime to homogenize the historical data series to modern day conditions and thus make it comparable to the data provided by instrumental measurements. The method I will apply for processing all information provided by historical sources such as chronicles, newspapers, institutional records, as well as flood marks, paintings and archeological evidence has been developed and successfully applied to the site of Basel by Wetter et al. (2011). They have also shown that data homogenization is possible by reconstructing previous stream flow conditions using historical river profiles and by carefully observing and re-constructing human changes of the river bed and its surroundings. Taken all information into account, peak discharges for past extreme flood events will be calculated with a one-dimensional hydrological model.