Potential drought stress in a Swiss mountain catchment-Ensemble forecasting of high mountain soil moisture reveals a drastic decrease, despite major uncertainties

Climate change is expected to profoundly influence the hydrosphere of mountain ecosystems. The focus of current process-based research is centered on the reaction of glaciers and runoff to climate change; spatially explicit impacts on soil moisture remain widely neglected. We spatio-temporally analyzed the impact of the climate on soil moisture in a mesoscale high mountain catchment to facilitate the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies at the level of vegetation patterns. Two regional climate models were downscaled using three different approaches (statistical downscaling, delta change, and direct use) to drive a hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) for reference and scenario period (1960–1990 and 2070–2100), resulting in an ensemble forecast of six members. For all ensembles members we found large changes in temperature, resulting in decreasing snow and ice storage and earlier runoff, but only small changes in evapotranspiration. The occurrence of downscaled dry spells was found to fluctuate greatly, causing soil moisture depletion and drought stress potential to show high variability in both space and time. In general, the choice of the downscaling approach had a stronger influence on the results than the applied regional climate model. All of the results indicate that summer soil moisture decreases, which leads to more frequent declines below a critical soil moisture level and an advanced evapotranspiration deficit. Forests up to an elevation of 1800 m a.s.l. are likely to be threatened the most, while alpine areas and most pastures remain nearly unaffected. Nevertheless, the ensemble variability was found to be extremely high and should be interpreted as a bandwidth of possible future drought stress situations.

Rapid responses of high-mountain vegetation to early Holocene environmental changes in the Swiss Alps

1 The Early Holocene sediment of a lake at tree line (Gouillé Rion, 2343 m a.s.l.) in the Swiss Central Alps was sampled for plant macrofossils. Thin (0.5 cm) slices, representing time intervals of c. 50 years each from 11 800 to 7800 cal. year bp, were analysed and the data compared with independent palaeoclimatic proxies to study vegetational responses to environmental change. 2 Alpine plant communities (e.g. with Salix herbacea) were established at 11 600–11 500 cal. year bp, when oxygen-isotope records showed that temperatures increased by c. 3–4 °C within decades. Larix decidua trees reached the site at c. 11 350 cal. year bp, probably in response to further warming by 1–2 °C. Forests dominated by L. decidua persisted until 9600 cal. year bp, when Pinus cembra became more important. 3 The dominance of Larix decidua for two millennia is explained by dry summer conditions, and possibly low winter temperatures, which favoured it over the late-successional Pinus cembra. Environmental conditions were a result of variations in the earth's orbit, leading to a maximum of summer and a minimum of winter solar radiation. Other heliophilous and drought-adapted species, such as Dryas octopetala and Juniperus nana, could persist in the open L. decidua forests, but were out-competed when the shade-tolerant P. cembra expanded. 4 The relative importance of Larix decidua decreased during periods of diminished solar radiation at 11 100, 10 100 and 9400 cal. year bp. Stable concentrations of L. decidua indicate that these percentage oscillations were caused by temporary increases of Pinus cembra, Dryas octopetala and Juniperus nana that can be explained by increases in moisture and/or decreases in summer temperature. 5 The final collapse of Larix decidua at 8400 cal. year bp was possibly related to abrupt climatic cooling as a consequence of a large meltwater input to the North Atlantic. Similarly, the temporary exclusion of Pinus cembra from tree line at 10 600–10 200 cal. year bp may be related to slowing down of thermohaline circulation at 10 700–10 300 cal. year bp. 6 Our results show that tree line vegetation was in dynamic equilibrium with climate, even during periods of extraordinarily rapid climatic change. They also imply that forecasted global warming may trigger rapid upslope movements of the tree line of up to 800 m within a few decades or centuries at most, probably inducing large-scale displacements of plant species as well as irrecoverable biodiversity losses.

Late Glacial and Holocene vegetational changes on the Ulagan high-mountain plateau, Altai Mountains, southern Siberia

Three well-dated pollen diagrams from 1985 m, 2050 m, and at the tree line at 2150 m asl show the vegetational succession in the central Altai Mountains since 16 cal ka BP. Pioneer vegetation after deglaciation was recorded first at the lowest site. Subsequently, dense dry steppe vegetation developed coincident with the change from silt to organic sediments at the two lower sites, but silt lasted longer at the highest site, indicating the persistence of bare ground there. Forests of Pinus sibirica, Pinus sylvestris, Picea obovata, Larix sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Betula pendula started to develop about 12 cal ka BP with the change to a warmer and wetter climate at the beginning of the Holocene. Results indicate that the timberline did not rise above the highest site. Mesophilous dark-coniferous forests were fully developed by 9.5 cal ka BP. The role of Abies and Picea decreased by about 7.5 cal ka BP suggesting cooler climate, after which the forests changed little until today. The vegetational development in this portion of the central Altai Mountains is compatible with that described in neighbouring areas of the Altai, southern Siberia, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan.

Liulin silicon semiconductor spectrometers as cosmic ray monitors at the high mountain observatories Jungfraujoch and Lomnický stit

Currently, most cosmic ray data are obtained by detectors on satellites, aircraft, high-altitude balloons and ground (neutron monitors). In our work, we examined whether Liulin semiconductor spectrometers (simple silicon planar diode detectors with spectrometric properties) located at high mountain observatories could contribute new information to the monitoring of cosmic rays by analyzing data from selected solar events between 2005 and 2013. The decision thresholds and detection limits of these detectors placed at Jungfraujoch (Switzerland; 3475 m a.s.l.; vertical cut-off rigidity 4.5 GV) and Lomnicky stıt (Slovakia; 2633 m a.s.l.; vertical cut-off rigidity 3.84 GV) highmountain observatories were determined. The data showed that only the strongest variations of the cosmic ray flux in this period were detectable. The main limitation in the performance of these detectors is their small sensitive volume and low sensitivity of the PIN photodiode to neutrons.

Paleoglaciated landscapes in Simen and other high-mountain areas of Ethiopia

In the present-day Ethiopia, glaciated landscapes do not exist, but paleoglaciated landscapes have been documented on a few mountain tops, which have altitudes higher than about 4,350 m asl in northern Ethiopia (Simen Mountains) and about 4,100 m asl in southern Ethiopia (Arsi and Bale Mountains). Glaciers were associated with the Late Pleistocene cold stages and reached as far down as 3,760 m asl in northern and 3,200 m asl in southern Ethiopia. Bale Mountains had the most extensive Late Pleistocene glaciation, covering over 190 km2, followed by Arsi Mountains (about 85 km2). In Simen, the Late Pleistocene glaciers covered merely 13 km2. In addition, paleo-periglacial slope deposits are found on all above-mentioned paleoglaciated mountains and in further mountain systems which did not host glaciers. This allows the reconstruction of the Late Pleistocene paleoclimate as being about 8 °C colder than at present (2014), much more dry, and probably without monsoon, at least in northern Ethiopia. Most probably in the Early Holocene, the re-emergence of monsoonal rains led to a strong erosion phase, which was followed by an extended stable phase with soil formation, building up about 70-cm-deep A-horizons (Andosol) on the paleo-periglacial slope deposits. These soils have been heavily degraded due to human-induced soil erosion up to about 3800 m asl since agriculture started several decades to millennia ago.

Reconstruction of Holocene vegetation dynamics at Lac de Bretaye, a high-mountain lake in the Swiss Alps

A deeper understanding of past vegetation dynamics is required to better assess future vegetation responses to global warming in the Alps. Lake sediments from Lac de Bretaye, a small subalpine lake in the Northern Swiss Alps (1780 m a.s.l.), were analysed to reconstruct past vegetation dynamics for the entire Holocene, using pollen, macrofossil and charcoal analyses as main proxies. The results show that timberline reached the lake’s catchment area at around 10,300 cal. BP, supporting the hypothesis of a delayed postglacial afforestation in the Northern Alps. At the same time, thermophilous trees such as Ulmus, Tilia and Acer established in the lowlands and expanded to the altitude of the lake, forming distinctive boreo-nemoral forests with Betula, Pinus cembra and Larix decidua. From about 5000 to 3500 cal. BP, thermophilous trees declined because of increasing human land use, mainly driven by the mass expansion of Picea abies and severe anthropogenic fire activity. From the Bronze Age onwards (c. 4200–2800 cal. BP), grazing indicators and high values for charcoal concentration and influx attest an intensifying human impact, fostering the expansion of Alnus viridis and Picea abies. Hence, biodiversity in alpine meadows increased, whereas forest diversity declined, as can be seen in other regional records. We argue that the anticipated climate change and decreasing human impact in the Alps today will not only lead to an upward movement of timberline with consequent loss of area for grasslands, but also to a disruption of Picea abies forests, which may allow the re-expansion of thermophilous tree species.

The Tajik Pamirs: Challenges of sustainable development in an isolated mountain region

Promoting sustainable development in the high mountain region of the Tajik Pamirs is a great challenge in political, economic, social, and ecological terms. The Pamirs, along with other mountain regions in the former Soviet Union, have been particularly affected by economic and political transition after 1991. Using an innovative apporach, the Pamir Strategy Project (PSP) supported stakeholders in their search of solutions an in developing strategies to address the manifold problems they face in their mountain region. The project also contributed to the development of methodological approaches for other mountain regions. The present publication provides a summary of the outcomes of the PSP. It portrays life in the Pamirs, along with development challenges and options, and presents practical an participatory approaches that can lead to sustainable mountain development. In addition, this publication outlines the lessons learnt within the PSP by presenting and evaluationg methods and apporaches such as participatory villages studies, multi-level stakeholder workshops for strategy development, knowledge generation processes, and Geographic Information Systmes as decision support tools for sustainable mountain development.

Swiss Alps Jungfrau Aletsch UNESCO World Heritage Site - The state of this World Heritage region as a starting point for regional monitoring

The UNESCO listing as World Heritage Site confirms the outstanding qualities of the high-mountain region around the Great Aletsch Glacier. The region of the World Heritage Site now faces the responsibility to make these qualities visible and to preserve them for future generations. Consequently the qualities of the site must not be regarded in isolation but in the context of the entire region with its dynamics and developments. Regional monitoring is the observation and evaluation of temporal changes in target variables. It is thus an obligation towards UNESCO, who demands regular reports about the state of the listed World Heritage assets. It also allows statements about sustainable regional development and can be the basis for early recognition of threats to the outstanding qualities. Monitoring programmes face three major challenges: first, great care must be taken in defining the target qualities to be monitored or the monitoring would remain vague. Secondly, the selection of ideal indicators to describe these qualities is impeded by inadequate data quality and availability, compromises are inevitable. Thirdly, there is always an element of insecurity in the interpretation of the results as to what influences and determines the changes in the target qualities. The first survey of the monitoring programme confirmed the exceptional qualities of the region and also highlighted problematic issues.

Livelihoods in Transition: Changing Land Use Strategies and Ecological Implications in a Post Soviet Setting (Kyrgyzstan)

The sudden independence of Kyrgyzstan from the Soviet Union in 1991 led to a total rupture of industrial and agricultural production. Based on empirical data, this study seeks to identify key land use transformation processes since the late 1980s, their impact on people's livelihoods and the implication for natural resources in the communes of Tosh Bulak and Saz, located in the Sokuluk River Basin on the northern slope of the Kyrgyz Range. Using the concept of the sustainable livelihood approach as an analytical framework, three different livelihood strategies were identified: (1) An accumulation strategy applied by wealthy households where renting and/or buying of land is a key element; they are the only household category capable of venturing into rain fed agriculture. (2) A preserving strategy involving mainly intermediate households who are not able to buy or rent additional agricultural land; very often they are forced to return their land to the commune or sell it to wealthier households. (3) A coping strategy including mainly poor households consisting of elderly pensioners or headed by single mothers; due to their limited labour and economic power, agricultural production is very low and hardly covers subsistence needs; pensions and social allowances form the backbone of these livelihoods. Ecological assessments have shown that the forage productivity of remote high mountain pastures has increased from 5 to 22 per cent since 1978. At the same time forage productivity on pre-mountain and mountain pastures close to villages has generally decreased from 1 to 34 per cent. It seems that the main avenues for livelihoods to increase their wealth are to be found in the agricultural sector by controlling more and mainly irrigated land as well as by increasing livestock. The losers in this process are thus those households unable to keep or exploit their arable land or to benefit from new agricultural land. Ensuring access to land for the poor is therefore imperative in order to combat rural poverty and socio-economic disparities in rural Kyrgyzstan.

Mid-Holocene Climate and Culture Change in the South Central Ande

This chapter reviews the history of study and the current status of Mid-Holocene climatic and cultural change in the South Central Andes, which host a wide range of different habitats from Pacific coastal areas up to extremely harsh cold and dry environments of the high mountain plateau, the altiplano or the puna. Paleoenvironmental information reveals high amplitude and rapid changes in effective moisture during the Holocene period and, consequently, dramatically changing environmental conditions. Therefore, this area is suitable to study the response of hunting and gathering societies to environmental changes, because the smallest variations in the climatic conditions have large impacts on resources and the living space of humans. This chapter analyzes environmental and paleoclimatic information from lake sediments, ice cores, pollen profiles, and geomorphic processes and relates these with the cultural and geographic settlement patterns of human occupation in the different habitats in the area of southern Peru, southwest Bolivia, northwest Argentina, and north Chile and puts in perspective of the early and late Holocene to present a representative range of environmental and cultural changes. It has been found that the largest changes took place around 9000 cal yr BP when the humid early Holocene conditions were replaced by extremely arid but highly variable climatic conditions. These resulted in a marked decrease of human occupation, “ecological refuges,” increased mobility, and an orientation toward habitats with relatively stable resources (such as the coast, the puna seca, and “ecological refuges”).

Diatoms community structure in superficial sediments of eight Andean lakes of central Chile

In this research the taxonomic structure of diatoms in sediments of high mountain lakes was studied. These lakes are located in Chile between 32°49' and 38°48' S in the Andean Cordillera. A total of 99 diatom taxa distributed in 48 genera were identified and all this taxa are cosmopolitan excepting a Eunotia andinofrequens, Gomphonema punae, Pinnularia araucanensis and Pinnularia acidicola, which are know only for the Southern Hemisphere. The assemblages of diatoms were different in the studied lakes. So the high mountain lakes Ocho, Huifa, Ensueño and Negra, dominated benthic diatoms which are typical of oligotrophic and acid waters as Achnanthidium exiguum, Achnanthidium minutissimum, Encyonema minutum, Pinnularia acidicola and Planothidium lanceolatum. In the assemblages from lakes Galletué, Icalma and Laja planktonic diatoms were more abundant, which are common in alkaline and mesotrophic waters, e.g., Asterionella formosa, Aulacoseira distans, Aulacoseira granulata, Cyclotella stelligera and Rhopalodia gibba.