Predicting the risk of hospital admission in older persons--validation of a brief self-administered questionnaire in three European countries

OBJECTIVES: To validate the Probability of Repeated Admission (Pra) questionnaire, a widely used self-administered tool for predicting future healthcare use in older persons, in three European healthcare systems. DESIGN: Prospective study with 1-year follow-up. SETTING: Hamburg, Germany; London, United Kingdom; Canton of Solothurn, Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Nine thousand seven hundred thirteen independently living community-dwelling people aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Self-administered eight-item Pra questionnaire at baseline. Self-reported number of hospital admissions and physician visits during 1 year of follow-up. RESULTS: In the combined sample, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.62-0.66) for the prediction of one or more hospital admissions and 0.68 (95% CI=0.66-0.69) for the prediction of more than six physician visits during the following year. AUCs were similar between sites. In comparison, prediction models based on a person's age and sex alone exhibited poor predictive validity (AUC High-risk individuals (Pra score >or= 0.5) were 2.3 times as likely (95% CI=2.1-2.6) as low-risk individuals to have a hospital admission, and 2.1 times as likely (95% CI=2.0-2.2) to have more than six physician visits. CONCLUSION: The Pra instrument exhibits good validity for predicting future health service use on a population level in different healthcare settings. Administrative data have shown similar predictive validity, but in practice, such data are often not available. The Pra is likely of high interest to governments and health insurance companies worldwide as a basis for programs aimed at health risk management in older persons.

Paleoglaciations in Anatolia: A Schematic Review and First Results

Anatolia is situated in the Eastern Mediterranean region between 36 – 42N and 26 – 45E. The geological records of paleoglaciations in the high terrains of Anatolia are key archives to quantify paleoclimate change in the Eastern Mediterranean area. The climate of the Eastern Mediterranean region is influenced by three main atmospheric systems: the main middle to high latitude westerlies, the mid-latitude subtropical high-pressure systems, and the monsoon climate. Glacial geological studies in Turkey have started in the late 19th century. Glacial deposits are found mainly in the eastern, northeastern and southern part of the Anatolian Peninsula. Anatolia is the fundamental element to understand the interactions between paleoenvironment, climatic variations, and development of the human societies. As the Taurus and Black Sea Mountains are sensitively situated for the paleoclimatic reconstructions, a chronostratigraphic framework on the paleoglaciation should be elaborated. The timing of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in Anatolia is still unknown. Our first results from Kavron Valley (Kaçkar Mountains, NE Turkey) are encouraging for the reconstruction of paleoglaciations in Turkey and related paleoclimatological interpretations although it is presently difficult to pinpoint the classical Last Glacial Maximum – Younger Dryas – Little Ice Age moraine sequences in the field.

Design techniques and analysis of high-resolution neural recording systems targeting epilepsy focus localization

The design of a high-density neural recording system targeting epilepsy monitoring is presented. Circuit challenges and techniques are discussed to optimize the amplifier topology and the included OTA. A new platform supporting active recording devices targeting wireless and high-resolution focus localization in epilepsy diagnosis is also proposed. The post-layout simulation results of an amplifier dedicated to this application are presented. The amplifier is designed in a UMC 0.18µm CMOS technology, has an NEF of 2.19 and occupies a silicon area of 0.038 mm(2), while consuming 5.8 µW from a 1.8-V supply.

Milk flow-dependent vacuum loss in high-line milking systems: effects on milking characteristics and teat tissue condition

To study the effects of a milking system that partially compensates for milk flow-dependent vacuum loss compared with a standard (high-line) milking unit in a tie-stall barn, milk flow and vacuum patterns were recorded in 10 cows during machine milking with 2 milking systems in a crossover design for 7 d each. Before and after each treatment period postmilking teat condition was recorded by ultrasound cross-sectioning. Additionally, 2 methods to measure teat tissue condition were compared: longitudinal teat ultrasound cross-sectioning and teat tissue density measurements with the spring-loaded caliper (cutimeter method). The partial compensation of milk flow-dependent vacuum loss caused an elevation of the peak flow rate (4.74+/-0.08 vs. 4.29+/-0.07 kg/min) and a shorter duration of plateau (1.57+/-0.06 vs. 1.96+/-0.07 min) compared with the standard milking system. Total milk yield, duration of incline and decline of milk flow, average milk flow, time until peak flow rate, main milking time, and total milking time did not differ between treatments (overall means: 13.75+/-0.17 kg; 0.65+/-0.01 min; 2.88+/-0.09 min; 2.82+/-0.05 kg/min; 1.65+/-0.03 min; 5.23+/-0.09 min, and 5.30+/-0.10 min, respectively). The vacuum drop in the short milk tube during periods of high milk flow was less in the compensating vacuum than in the standard milking system (11+/-1.1 vs. 15+/-0.7 kPa). Teat measures as determined by ultrasound remained unchanged over the entire experimental period with both milking systems. Postmilking teat tissue measures including their recovery within 20 min after the end of milking show a correlation (0.85 and 0.71, respectively) between the methods used (ultrasound and cutimeter method). In conclusion, a more constant vacuum at the teat tip (within the short milk tube) during periods of high milk flow affected milk flow patterns, mainly increasing peak flow rate. However, the reduced vacuum loss did not increase the overall speed of milking. In addition, effects of higher vacuum stability on teat condition and udder health were not obvious.

Io volcano observer (IVO) integrated approach to optimizing system design for radiation challenges

One of the major challenges for a mission to the Jovian system is the radiation tolerance of the spacecraft (S/C) and the payload. Moreover, being able to achieve science observations with high signal to noise ratios (SNR), while passing through the high flux radiation zones, requires additional ingenuity on the part of the instrument provider. Consequently, the radiation mitigation is closely intertwined with the payload, spacecraft and trajectory design, and requires a systems-level approach. This paper presents a design for the Io Volcano Observer (IVO), a Discovery mission concept that makes multiple close encounters with Io while orbiting Jupiter. The mission aims to answer key outstanding questions about Io, especially the nature of its intense active volcanism and the internal processes that drive it. The payload includes narrow-angle and wide-angle cameras (NAC and WAC), dual fluxgate magnetometers (FGM), a thermal mapper (ThM), dual ion and neutral mass spectrometers (INMS), and dual plasma ion analyzers (PIA). The radiation mitigation is implemented by drawing upon experiences from designs and studies for missions such as the Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP) and Jupiter Europa Orbiter (JEO). At the core of the radiation mitigation is IVO's inclined and highly elliptical orbit, which leads to rapid passes through the most intense radiation near Io, minimizing the total ionizing dose (177 krads behind 100 mils of Aluminum with radiation design margin (RDM) of 2 after 7 encounters). The payload and the spacecraft are designed specifically to accommodate the fast flyby velocities (e.g. the spacecraft is radioisotope powered, remaining small and agile without any flexible appendages). The science instruments, which collect the majority of the high-priority data when close to Io and thus near the peak flux, also have to mitigate transient noise in their detectors. The cameras use a combination of shielding and CMOS detectors with extremely fast readout to mi- imize noise. INMS microchannel plate detectors and PIA channel electron multipliers require additional shielding. The FGM is not sensitive to noise induced by energetic particles and the ThM microbolometer detector is nearly insensitive. Detailed SNR calculations are presented. To facilitate targeting agility, all of the spacecraft components are shielded separately since this approach is more mass efficient than using a radiation vault. IVO uses proven radiation-hardened parts (rated at 100 krad behind equivalent shielding of 280 mils of Aluminum with RDM of 2) and is expected to have ample mass margin to increase shielding if needed.

PyGirl Generating Whole-System VMs from high-level models using PyPy

Virtual machines emulating hardware devices are generally implemented in low-level languages and using a low-level style for performance reasons. This trend results in largely difficult to understand, difficult to extend and unmaintainable systems. As new general techniques for virtual machines arise, it gets harder to incorporate or test these techniques because of early design and optimization decisions. In this paper we show how such decisions can be postponed to later phases by separating virtual machine implementation issues from the high-level machine-specific model. We construct compact models of whole-system VMs in a high-level language, which exclude all low-level implementation details. We use the pluggable translation toolchain PyPy to translate those models to executables. During the translation process, the toolchain reintroduces the VM implementation and optimization details for specific target platforms. As a case study we implement an executable model of a hardware gaming device. We show that our approach to VM building increases understandability, maintainability and extendability while preserving performance.

Design and Test of a 0.5 THz Dipole Antenna With Integrated Schottky Diode Detector on a High Dielectric Constant Ceramic Electromagnetic Bandgap Substrate

This paper presents the first analysis of the input impedance and radiation properties of a dipole antenna, placed on top of Fan 's three-dimensional electromagnetic bandgap (EBG) structure, (Applied Physics Letters, 1994) constructed using a high dielectric constant ceramic. The best position of the dipole on the EBG surface is determined following impedance and radiation pattern analyses. Based on this optimum configuration an integrated Schottky heterodyne detector was designed, manufactured and tested from 0.48 to 0.52 THz. The main antenna features were not degraded by the high dielectric constant substrate due to the use of the EBG approach. Measured radiation patterns are in good agreement with the predicted ones.