Impacts of changing climate and land use on vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean ecosystem: insights from paleoecology and dynamic modeling

Forests near the Mediterranean coast have been shaped by millennia of human disturbance. Consequently, ecological studies relying on modern observations or historical records may have difficulty assessing natural vegetation dynamics under current and future climate. We combined a sedimentary pollen record from Lago di Massacciucoli, Tuscany, Italy with simulations from the LandClim dynamic vegetation model to determine what vegetation preceded intense human disturbance, how past changes in vegetation relate to fire and browsing, and the potential of an extinct vegetation type under present climate. We simulated vegetation dynamics near Lago di Massaciucoli for the last 7,000 years using a local chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction with combinations of three fire regimes (small infrequent, large infrequent, small frequent) and three browsing intensities (no browsing, light browsing, and moderate browsing), and compared model output to pollen data. Simulations with low disturbance support pollen-inferred evidence for a mixed forest dominated by Quercus ilex (a Mediterranean species) and Abies alba (a montane species). Whereas pollen data record the collapse of A. alba after 6000 cal yr bp, simulated populations expanded with declining summer temperatures during the late Holocene. Simulations with increased fire and browsing are consistent with evidence for expansion by deciduous species after A. alba collapsed. According to our combined paleo-environmental and modeling evidence, mixed Q. ilex and A. alba forests remain possible with current climate and limited disturbance, and provide a viable management objective for ecosystems near the Mediterranean coast and in regions that are expected to experience a mediterranean-type climate in the future.

Phosphoinositide 3-kinase C2β regulates RhoA and the actin cytoskeleton through an interaction with Dbl

The regulation of cell morphology is a dynamic process under the control of multiple protein complexes acting in a coordinated manner. Phosphoinositide 3-kinases (PI3K) and their lipid products are widely involved in cytoskeletal regulation by interacting with proteins regulating RhoGTPases. Class II PI3K isoforms have been implicated in the regulation of the actin cytoskeleton, although their exact role and mechanism of action remain to be established. In this report, we have identified Dbl, a Rho family guanine nucleotide exchange factor (RhoGEF) as an interaction partner of PI3KC2β. Dbl was co-immunoprecipitated with PI3KC2β in NIH3T3 cells and cancer cell lines. Over-expression of Class II phosphoinositide 3-kinase PI3KC2β in NIH3T3 fibroblasts led to increased stress fibres formation and cell spreading. Accordingly, we found high basal RhoA activity and increased serum response factor (SRF) activation downstream of RhoA upon serum stimulation. In contrast, the dominant-negative form of PI3KC2β strongly reduced cell spreading and stress fibres formation, as well as SRF response. Platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF) stimulation of wild-type PI3KC2β over-expressing NIH3T3 cells strongly increased Rac and c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) activation, but failed to show similar effect in the cells with the dominant-negative enzyme. Interestingly, epidermal growth factor (EGF) and PDGF stimulation led to increased extracellular signal-regulated kinase (Erk) and Akt pathway activation in cells with elevated wild-type PI3KC2β expression. Furthermore, increased expression of PI3KC2β protected NIH3T3 from detachment-dependent death (anoikis) in a RhoA-dependent manner. Taken together, these findings suggest that PI3KC2β modulates the cell morphology and survival through a specific interaction with Dbl and the activation of RhoA.

Environmental change within the Balkan region during the past ca. 50 ka recorded in the sediments from lakes Prespa and Ohrid

Abstract. Lakes Prespa and Ohrid, in the Balkan region, are considered to be amongst the oldest lakes in Europe. Both lakes are hydraulically connected via karst aquifers. From Lake Ohrid, several sediment cores up to 15m long have been studied over the last few years. Here, we document the first long sediment record from nearby Lake Prespa to clarify the influence of Lake Prespa on Lake Ohrid and the environmental history of the region. Radiocarbon dating and dated tephra layers provide robust age control and indicate that the 10.5m long sediment record from Lake Prespa reaches back to 48 ka. Glacial sedimentation is characterized by low organic matter content and absence of carbonates in the sediments, which indicate oligotrophic conditions in both lakes. Holocene sedimentation is characterized by particularly high carbonate content in Lake Ohrid and by particularly high organic matter content in Lake Prespa, which indicates a shift towards more mesotrophic conditions in the latter. Long-term environmental change and short-term events, such as related to the Heinrich events during the Pleistocene or the 8.2 ka cooling event during the Holocene, are well recorded in both lakes, but are only evident in certain proxies. The comparison of the sediment cores from both lakes indicates that environmental change affects particularly the trophic state of Lake Prespa due to its lower volume and water depth.

Psychological predictors of eco-driving: A longitudinal study

Eco-driving has well-known positive effects on fuel economy and greenhouse-gas emissions. Moreover, eco-driving reduces road-traffic noise, which is a serious threat to the health and well-being of many people. We investigated the psychological predictors of the adoption of eco-driving from the perspective of road-traffic noise abatement. The data came from 890 car drivers who participated in a longitudinal survey over four months. Specifically, we tested the effects of the intention to prevent road-traffic noise, variables derived from the theory of planned behavior (social norm, perceived behavioral control, and attitude), and variables derived from the health action process approach (implementation intention, maintenance self-efficacy, and action control) on the intention to practice eco-driving and on eco-driving behavior. The intention to prevent road-traffic noise was not linked to the intention to practice eco-driving. The strongest predictors of the intention to practice eco-driving were attitude and perceived behavioral control. The strongest predictor of eco-driving behavior was action control. The link between behavioral intention and behavior was weak, indicating that drivers have difficulties putting their intention to practice eco-driving into action. Therefore, intervention efforts should directly address and support the transition from intention to behavior. This could be accomplished by providing reminders, which help to maintain behavioral intention, and by providing behavior feedback, which helps car drivers to monitor their behavior.

Impact of development of job control and task-related stressors on resigned job attitude.

With more experience in the labor market, some job characteristics increase, some decrease. For example, among young employees who just entered the labor market, job control may initially be low but increase with more routine and experience. Job control is a job resource that is valued in itself and is positively associated with job satisfaction; but job control also helps dealing with stressors at work. There is little research on correlated changes, but the existing evidence suggests a joint development over time. However, even less is known about the relevance of such changes for employees. Usually, research tends to use mean levels to predict mean levels in outcomes but development in job control and stressors may be as relevant for job satisfaction as having a certain level in those job characteristics. Job satisfaction typically is regarded as a positive attitude towards one’s work. What has received less attention is that some employees may lower their expectations if their job situation does not reflect their needs, resulting in a resigned attitude towards one’s job. The present study investigates the development of job control and task-related stressors over ten years and tests the predictive value of changes in job control and task-related stressors for resigned attitude towards one’s job. We used data from a Swiss panel study (N=356) ranging over ten years. Job control, task-related stressors (an index consisting of time pressure, concentration demands, performance constraints, interruptions, and uncertainty about tasks), and resigned attitude towards one’s job were assessed in 1998, 1999, 2001, and 2008. Latent growth modeling revealed that growth rates of job control and task-related stressors were not correlated with one another. We predicted resigned attitude towards one’s job in 2008 a) by initial levels, and b) by changes in job control and stressors, controlling for resigned attitude in 1998. There was some prediction by initial levels (job control: β = -.15, p < .05; task-related stressors: β = .12, p = .06). However, as expected, changes in control and stressors predicted resigned attitude much better, with β = -.37, p < .001, for changes in job control, and β = .31, p < .001, for changes in task-related stressors. Our data confirm the importance of having low levels of task-related stressors and higher levels of job control for job attitudes. However, development in these job characteristics seems even more important than initial levels.

Predicting asthma control and exacerbations: chronic asthma as a complex dynamic model

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Predicting asthma episodes is notoriously difficult but has potentially significant consequences for the individual, as well as for healthcare services. The purpose of this review is to describe recent insights into the prediction of acute asthma episodes in relation to classical clinical, functional or inflammatory variables, as well as present a new concept for evaluating asthma as a dynamically regulated homeokinetic system. RECENT FINDINGS: Risk prediction for asthma episodes or relapse has been attempted using clinical scoring systems, considerations of environmental factors and lung function, as well as inflammatory and immunological markers in induced sputum or exhaled air, and these are summarized here. We have recently proposed that newer mathematical methods derived from statistical physics may be used to understand the complexity of asthma as a homeokinetic, dynamic system consisting of a network comprising multiple components, and also to assess the risk for future asthma episodes based on fluctuation analysis of long time series of lung function. SUMMARY: Apart from the classical analysis of risk factor and functional parameters, this new approach may be used to assess asthma control and treatment effects in the individual as well as in future research trials.

Application and assessment of a robust elastic motion correction algorithm to dynamic MRI

The purpose of this study was to assess the performance of a new motion correction algorithm. Twenty-five dynamic MR mammography (MRM) data sets and 25 contrast-enhanced three-dimensional peripheral MR angiographic (MRA) data sets which were affected by patient motion of varying severeness were selected retrospectively from routine examinations. Anonymized data were registered by a new experimental elastic motion correction algorithm. The algorithm works by computing a similarity measure for the two volumes that takes into account expected signal changes due to the presence of a contrast agent while penalizing other signal changes caused by patient motion. A conjugate gradient method is used to find the best possible set of motion parameters that maximizes the similarity measures across the entire volume. Images before and after correction were visually evaluated and scored by experienced radiologists with respect to reduction of motion, improvement of image quality, disappearance of existing lesions or creation of artifactual lesions. It was found that the correction improves image quality (76% for MRM and 96% for MRA) and diagnosability (60% for MRM and 96% for MRA).

Assessment of a robust opportunistic routing for video transmission in dynamic topologies

Mobile multimedia ad hoc services run on dynamic topologies due to node mobility or failures and wireless channel impairments. A robust routing service must adapt to topology changes with the aim of recovering or maintaining the video quality level and reducing the impact of the user's experience. In those scenarios, beacon-less Opportunistic Routing (OR) increases the robustness by supporting routing decisions in a completely distributed manner based on protocol-specific characteristics. However, the existing beacon-less OR approaches do not efficiently combine multiple metrics for forwarding selection, which cause higher packet loss rate, and consequently reduce the video quality level. In this paper, we assess the robustness and reliability of our recently developed OR protocol under node failures, called cross-layer Link quality and Geographical-aware OR protocol (LinGO). Simulation results show that LinGO achieves multimedia dissemination with QoE support and robustness in scenarios with dynamic topologies.

Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors in clinical trials with historical control information.

Historical information is always relevant for clinical trial design. Additionally, if incorporated in the analysis of a new trial, historical data allow to reduce the number of subjects. This decreases costs and trial duration, facilitates recruitment, and may be more ethical. Yet, under prior-data conflict, a too optimistic use of historical data may be inappropriate. We address this challenge by deriving a Bayesian meta-analytic-predictive prior from historical data, which is then combined with the new data. This prospective approach is equivalent to a meta-analytic-combined analysis of historical and new data if parameters are exchangeable across trials. The prospective Bayesian version requires a good approximation of the meta-analytic-predictive prior, which is not available analytically. We propose two- or three-component mixtures of standard priors, which allow for good approximations and, for the one-parameter exponential family, straightforward posterior calculations. Moreover, since one of the mixture components is usually vague, mixture priors will often be heavy-tailed and therefore robust. Further robustness and a more rapid reaction to prior-data conflicts can be achieved by adding an extra weakly-informative mixture component. Use of historical prior information is particularly attractive for adaptive trials, as the randomization ratio can then be changed in case of prior-data conflict. Both frequentist operating characteristics and posterior summaries for various data scenarios show that these designs have desirable properties. We illustrate the methodology for a phase II proof-of-concept trial with historical controls from four studies. Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors alleviate prior-data conflicts ' they should encourage better and more frequent use of historical data in clinical trials.