Large deviations for heavy-tailed random elements in convex cones

We prove large deviation results for sums of heavy-tailed random elements in rather general convex cones being semigroups equipped with a rescaling operation by positive real numbers. In difference to previous results for the cone of convex sets, our technique does not use the embedding of cones in linear spaces. Examples include the cone of convex sets with the Minkowski addition, positive half-line with maximum operation and the family of square integrable functions with arithmetic addition and argument rescaling.

Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October–March) at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950–2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series). Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin) have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series) is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa) has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus) show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous ascent motions and an increase of the low- to mid-tropospheric moisture. Furthermore, the jet stream position (during ≥5-year return level events) supports the eastern basin being in a divergence area, where ascent motions are favoured. Our results contribute to an improved understanding of daily precipitation extremes in the cold season and associated large scale atmospheric features.

Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors in clinical trials with historical control information.

Historical information is always relevant for clinical trial design. Additionally, if incorporated in the analysis of a new trial, historical data allow to reduce the number of subjects. This decreases costs and trial duration, facilitates recruitment, and may be more ethical. Yet, under prior-data conflict, a too optimistic use of historical data may be inappropriate. We address this challenge by deriving a Bayesian meta-analytic-predictive prior from historical data, which is then combined with the new data. This prospective approach is equivalent to a meta-analytic-combined analysis of historical and new data if parameters are exchangeable across trials. The prospective Bayesian version requires a good approximation of the meta-analytic-predictive prior, which is not available analytically. We propose two- or three-component mixtures of standard priors, which allow for good approximations and, for the one-parameter exponential family, straightforward posterior calculations. Moreover, since one of the mixture components is usually vague, mixture priors will often be heavy-tailed and therefore robust. Further robustness and a more rapid reaction to prior-data conflicts can be achieved by adding an extra weakly-informative mixture component. Use of historical prior information is particularly attractive for adaptive trials, as the randomization ratio can then be changed in case of prior-data conflict. Both frequentist operating characteristics and posterior summaries for various data scenarios show that these designs have desirable properties. We illustrate the methodology for a phase II proof-of-concept trial with historical controls from four studies. Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors alleviate prior-data conflicts ' they should encourage better and more frequent use of historical data in clinical trials.

ATLAS search for new phenomena in dijet mass and angular distributions using pp collisions at sqrts=7 TeV

Mass and angular distributions of dijets produced in LHC proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy root s = 7TeV have been studied with the ATLAS detector using the full 2011 data set with an integrated luminosity of 4.8 fb(-1). Dijet masses up to similar to 4.0TeV have been probed. No resonance-like features have been observed in the dijet mass spectrum, and all angular distributions are consistent with the predictions of QCD. Exclusion limits on six hypotheses of new phenomena have been set at 95% CL in terms of mass or energy scale, as appropriate. These hypotheses include excited quarks below 2.83 TeV, colour octet scalars below 1.86TeV, heavy W bosons below 1.68 TeV, string resonances below 3.61 TeV, quantum black holes with six extra space-time dimensions for quantum gravity scales below 4.11 TeV, and quark contact interactions below a compositeness scale of 7.6 TeV in a destructive interference scenario.

Study of Heavy-ion Induced Fission for Heavy Element Synthesis

Fission fragment mass distributions were measured in heavy-ion induced fission of 238U. The mass distributions changed drastically with incident energy. The results are explained by a change of the ratio between fusion and quasifission with nuclear orientation. A calculation based on a fluctuation dissipation model reproduced the mass distributions and their incident energy dependence. Fusion probability was determined in the analysis. Evaporation residue cross sections were calculated with a statistical model for the reactions of 30Si+238U and 34S+238U using the obtained fusion probability in the entrance channel. The results agree with the measured cross sections of 263,264Sg and 267,268Hs, produced by 30Si+238U and 34S+238U, respectively. It is also suggested that sub-barrier energies can be used for heavy element synthesis.