Mortality of HIV-1-infected patients in the first year of antiretroviral therapy: comparison between low-income and high-income countries

BACKGROUND: Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is being scaled up in developing countries. We compared baseline characteristics and outcomes during the first year of HAART between HIV-1-infected patients in low-income and high-income settings. METHODS: 18 HAART programmes in Africa, Asia, and South America (low-income settings) and 12 HIV cohort studies from Europe and North America (high-income settings) provided data for 4810 and 22,217, respectively, treatment-naive adult patients starting HAART. All patients from high-income settings and 2725 (57%) patients from low-income settings were actively followed-up and included in survival analyses. FINDINGS: Compared with high-income countries, patients starting HAART in low-income settings had lower CD4 cell counts (median 108 cells per muL vs 234 cells per muL), were more likely to be female (51%vs 25%), and more likely to start treatment with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) (70%vs 23%). At 6 months, the median number of CD4 cells gained (106 cells per muL vs 103 cells per muL) and the percentage of patients reaching HIV-1 RNA levels lower than 500 copies/mL (76%vs 77%) were similar. Mortality was higher in low-income settings (124 deaths during 2236 person-years of follow-up) than in high-income settings (414 deaths during 20,532 person-years). The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of mortality comparing low-income with high-income settings fell from 4.3 (95% CI 1.6-11.8) during the first month to 1.5 (0.7-3.0) during months 7-12. The provision of treatment free of charge in low-income settings was associated with lower mortality (adjusted HR 0.23; 95% CI 0.08-0.61). INTERPRETATION: Patients starting HAART in resource-poor settings have increased mortality rates in the first months on therapy, compared with those in developed countries. Timely diagnosis and assessment of treatment eligibility, coupled with free provision of HAART, might reduce this excess mortality.

Prognosis of HIV-1-infected patients up to 5 years after initiation of HAART: collaborative analysis of prospective studies

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prognosis over 5 years of HIV-1-infected, treatment-naive patients starting HAART, taking into account the immunological and virological response to therapy. DESIGN: A collaborative analysis of data from 12 cohorts in Europe and North America on 20,379 adults who started HAART between 1995 and 2003. METHODS: Parametric survival models were used to predict the cumulative incidence at 5 years of a new AIDS-defining event or death, and death alone, first from the start of HAART and second from 6 months after the start of HAART. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions. RESULTS: During 61 798 person-years of follow-up, 1005 patients died and an additional 1303 developed AIDS. A total of 10 046 (49%) patients started HAART either with a CD4 cell count of less than 200 cells/microl or with a diagnosis of AIDS. The 5-year risk of AIDS or death (death alone) from the start of HAART ranged from 5.6 to 77% (1.8-65%), depending on age, CD4 cell count, HIV-1-RNA level, clinical stage, and history of injection drug use. From 6 months the corresponding figures were 4.1-99% for AIDS or death and 1.3-96% for death alone. CONCLUSION: On the basis of data collected routinely in HIV care, prognostic models with high discriminatory power over 5 years were developed for patients starting HAART in industrialized countries. A risk calculator that produces estimates for progression rates at years 1 to 5 after starting HAART is available from www.art-cohort-collaboration.org.

CD4+ T-cell count increase in HIV-1-infected patients with suppressed viral load within 1 year after start of antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND: CD4+ T-cell recovery in patients with continuous suppression of plasma HIV-1 viral load (VL) is highly variable. This study aimed to identify predictive factors for long-term CD4+ T-cell increase in treatment-naive patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). METHODS: Treatment-naive patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study reaching two VL measurements <50 copies/ml >3 months apart during the 1st year of cART were included (n=1816 patients). We studied CD4+ T-cell dynamics until the end of suppression or up to 5 years, subdivided into three periods: 1st year, years 2-3 and years 4-5 of suppression. Multiple median regression adjusted for repeated CD4+ T-cell measurements was used to study the dependence of CD4+ T-cell slopes on clinical covariates and drug classes. RESULTS: Median CD4+ T-cell increases following VL suppression were 87, 52 and 19 cells/microl per year in the three periods. In the multiple regression model, median CD4+ T-cell increases over all three periods were significantly higher for female gender, lower age, higher VL at cART start, CD4+ T-cell <650 cells/microl at start of the period and low CD4+ T-cell increase in the previous period. Patients on tenofovir showed significantly lower CD4+ T-cell increases compared with stavudine. CONCLUSIONS: In our observational study, long-term CD4+ T-cell increase in drug-naive patients with suppressed VL was higher in regimens without tenofovir. The clinical relevance of these findings must be confirmed in, ideally, clinical trials or large, collaborative cohort projects but could influence treatment of older patients and those starting cART at low CD4+ T-cell levels.

Timing of initiation of antiretroviral therapy in AIDS-free HIV-1-infected patients: a collaborative analysis of 18 HIV cohort studies

BACKGROUND: The CD4 cell count at which combination antiretroviral therapy should be started is a central, unresolved issue in the care of HIV-1-infected patients. In the absence of randomised trials, we examined this question in prospective cohort studies. METHODS: We analysed data from 18 cohort studies of patients with HIV. Antiretroviral-naive patients from 15 of these studies were eligible for inclusion if they had started combination antiretroviral therapy (while AIDS-free, with a CD4 cell count less than 550 cells per microL, and with no history of injecting drug use) on or after Jan 1, 1998. We used data from patients followed up in seven of the cohorts in the era before the introduction of combination therapy (1989-95) to estimate distributions of lead times (from the first CD4 cell count measurement in an upper range to the upper threshold of a lower range) and unseen AIDS and death events (occurring before the upper threshold of a lower CD4 cell count range is reached) in the absence of treatment. These estimations were used to impute completed datasets in which lead times and unseen AIDS and death events were added to data for treated patients in deferred therapy groups. We compared the effect of deferred initiation of combination therapy with immediate initiation on rates of AIDS and death, and on death alone, in adjacent CD4 cell count ranges of width 100 cells per microL. FINDINGS: Data were obtained for 21 247 patients who were followed up during the era before the introduction of combination therapy and 24 444 patients who were followed up from the start of treatment. Deferring combination therapy until a CD4 cell count of 251-350 cells per microL was associated with higher rates of AIDS and death than starting therapy in the range 351-450 cells per microL (hazard ratio [HR] 1.28, 95% CI 1.04-1.57). The adverse effect of deferring treatment increased with decreasing CD4 cell count threshold. Deferred initiation of combination therapy was also associated with higher mortality rates, although effects on mortality were less marked than effects on AIDS and death (HR 1.13, 0.80-1.60, for deferred initiation of treatment at CD4 cell count 251-350 cells per microL compared with initiation at 351-450 cells per microL). INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that 350 cells per microL should be the minimum threshold for initiation of antiretroviral therapy, and should help to guide physicians and patients in deciding when to start treatment.

The Individualized Genetic Barrier Predicts Treatment Response in a Large Cohort of HIV-1 Infected Patients

The success of combination antiretroviral therapy is limited by the evolutionary escape dynamics of HIV-1. We used Isotonic Conjunctive Bayesian Networks (I-CBNs), a class of probabilistic graphical models, to describe this process. We employed partial order constraints among viral resistance mutations, which give rise to a limited set of mutational pathways, and we modeled phenotypic drug resistance as monotonically increasing along any escape pathway. Using this model, the individualized genetic barrier (IGB) to each drug is derived as the probability of the virus not acquiring additional mutations that confer resistance. Drug-specific IGBs were combined to obtain the IGB to an entire regimen, which quantifies the virus' genetic potential for developing drug resistance under combination therapy. The IGB was tested as a predictor of therapeutic outcome using between 2,185 and 2,631 treatment change episodes of subtype B infected patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study Database, a large observational cohort. Using logistic regression, significant univariate predictors included most of the 18 drugs and single-drug IGBs, the IGB to the entire regimen, the expert rules-based genotypic susceptibility score (GSS), several individual mutations, and the peak viral load before treatment change. In the multivariate analysis, the only genotype-derived variables that remained significantly associated with virological success were GSS and, with 10-fold stronger association, IGB to regimen. When predicting suppression of viral load below 400 cps/ml, IGB outperformed GSS and also improved GSS-containing predictors significantly, but the difference was not significant for suppression below 50 cps/ml. Thus, the IGB to regimen is a novel data-derived predictor of treatment outcome that has potential to improve the interpretation of genotypic drug resistance tests.

Impact of Switching From Zidovudine to Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate on Bone Mineral Density and Markers of Bone Metabolism in Virologically Suppressed HIV-1 Infected Patients; A Substudy of the PREPARE Study

Context: In virologically suppressed, antiretroviral-treated patients, the effect of switching to tenofovir (TDF) on bone biomarkers compared to patients remaining on stable antiretroviral therapy is unknown. Methods: We examined bone biomarkers (osteocalcin [OC], procollagen type 1 amino-terminal propeptide, and C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type 1 collagen) and bone mineral density (BMD) over 48 weeks in virologically suppressed patients (HIV RNA < 50 copies/ml) randomized to switch to TDF/emtricitabine (FTC) or remain on first-line zidovudine (AZT)/lamivudine (3TC). PTH was also measured. Between-group differences in bone biomarkers and associations between change in bone biomarkers and BMD measures were assessed by Student's t tests, Pearson correlation, and multivariable linear regression, respectively. All data are expressed as mean (SD), unless otherwise specified. Results: Of 53 subjects (aged 46.0 y; 84.9% male; 75.5% Caucasian), 29 switched to TDF/FTC. There were reductions in total hip and lumbar spine BMD in those switching to TDF/FTC (total hip, TDF/FTC, −1.73 (2.76)% vs AZT/3TC, −0.39 (2.41)%; between-group P = .07; lumbar spine, TDF/FTC, −1.50 (3.49)% vs AZT/3TC, +0.25 (2.82)%; between-group P = .06), but they did not reach statistical significance. Greater declines in lumbar spine BMD correlated with greater increases in OC (r = −0.28; P = .05). The effect of TDF/FTC on bone biomarkers remained significant when adjusted for baseline biomarker levels, gender, and ethnicity. There was no difference in change in PTH levels over 48 weeks between treatment groups (between-group P = .23). All biomarkers increased significantly from weeks 0 to 48 in the switch group, with no significant change in those remaining on AZT/3TC (between-group, all biomarkers, P < .0001). Conclusion: A switch to TDF/FTC compared to remaining on a stable regimen is associated with increases in bone turnover that correlate with reductions in BMD, suggesting that TDF exposure directly affects bone metabolism in vivo.

Virological outcome and management of persistent low-level viraemia in HIV-1-infected patients: 11 years of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND Management of persistent low-level viraemia (pLLV) in patients on combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) with previously undetectable HIV viral loads (VLs) is challenging. We examined virological outcome and management among patients enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). METHODS In this retrospective study (2000-2011), pLLV was defined as a VL of 21-400 copies/mL on ≥3 consecutive plasma samples with ≥8 weeks between first and last analyses, in patients undetectable for ≥24 weeks on cART. Control patients had ≥3 consecutive undetectable VLs over ≥32 weeks. Virological failure (VF), analysed in the pLLV patient group, was defined as a VL>400 copies/mL. RESULTS Among 9972 patients, 179 had pLLV and 5389 were controls. Compared to controls, pLLV patients were more often on unboosted PI-based (adjusted odds ratio, aOR, [95%CI] 3.2 [1.8-5.9]) and NRTI-only combinations (aOR 2.1 [1.1-4.2]) than on NNRTI and boosted PI-based regimens. At 48 weeks, 102/155 pLLV patients (66%) still had pLLV, 19/155 (12%) developed VF, and 34/155 (22%) had undetectable VLs. Predictors of VF were previous VF (aOR 35 [3.8-315]), unboosted PI-based (aOR 12.8 [1.7-96]) or NRTI-only combinations (aOR 115 [6.8-1952]), and VLs>200 during pLLV (aOR 3.7 [1.1-12]). No VF occurred in patients with persistent very LLV (pVLLV, 21-49 copies/mL; N=26). At 48 weeks, 29/39 patients (74%) who changed cART had undetectable VLs, compared to 19/74 (26%) without change (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS Among patients with pLLV, VF was predicted by previous VF, cART regimen and VL ≥200. Most patients who changed cART had undetectable VLs 48 weeks later. These findings support cART modification for pLLV >200 copies/ml.

Prognostic importance of anaemia in HIV type-1-infected patients starting antiretroviral therapy: collaborative analysis of prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND: In HIV type-1-infected patients starting highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), the prognostic value of haemoglobin when starting HAART, and of changes in haemoglobin levels, are not well defined. METHODS: We combined data from 10 prospective studies of 12,100 previously untreated individuals (25% women). A total of 4,222 patients (35%) were anaemic: 131 patients (1.1%) had severe (<8.0 g/dl), 1,120 (9%) had moderate (male 8.0-<11.0 g/dl and female 8.0- < 10.0 g/dl) and 2,971 (25%) had mild (male 11.0- < 13.0 g/ dl and female 10.0- < 12.0 g/dl) anaemia. We separately analysed progression to AIDS or death from baseline and from 6 months using Weibull models, adjusting for CD4+ T-cell count, age, sex and other variables. RESULTS: During 48,420 person-years of follow-up 1,448 patients developed at least one AIDS event and 857 patients died. Anaemia at baseline was independently associated with higher mortality: the adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for mild anaemia was 1.42 (1.17-1.73), for moderate anaemia 2.56 (2.07-3.18) and for severe anaemia 5.26 (3.55-7.81). Corresponding figures for progression to AIDS were 1.60 (1.37-1.86), 2.00 (1.66-2.40) and 2.24 (1.46-3.42). At 6 months the prevalence of anaemia declined to 26%. Baseline anaemia continued to predict mortality (and to a lesser extent progression to AIDS) in patients with normal haemoglobin or mild anaemia at 6 months. CONCLUSIONS: Anaemia at the start of HAART is an important factor for short- and long-term prognosis, including in patients whose haemoglobin levels improved or normalized during the first 6 months of HAART.

CD4+ T cell count recovery in HIV type 1-infected patients is independent of class of antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND: In recent years, treatment options for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection have changed from nonboosted protease inhibitors (PIs) to nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) and boosted PI-based antiretroviral drug regimens, but the impact on immunological recovery remains uncertain. METHODS: During January 1996 through December 2004 [corrected] all patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort were included if they received the first combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) and had known baseline CD4(+) T cell counts and HIV-1 RNA values (n = 3293). For follow-up, we used the Swiss HIV Cohort Study database update of May 2007 [corrected] The mean (+/-SD) duration of follow-up was 26.8 +/- 20.5 months. The follow-up time was limited to the duration of the first cART. CD4(+) T cell recovery was analyzed in 3 different treatment groups: nonboosted PI, NNRTI, or boosted PI. The end point was the absolute increase of CD4(+) T cell count in the 3 treatment groups after the initiation of cART. RESULTS: Two thousand five hundred ninety individuals (78.7%) initiated a nonboosted-PI regimen, 452 (13.7%) initiated an NNRTI regimen, and 251 (7.6%) initiated a boosted-PI regimen. Absolute CD4(+) T cell count increases at 48 months were as follows: in the nonboosted-PI group, from 210 to 520 cells/muL; in the NNRTI group, from 220 to 475 cells/muL; and in the boosted-PI group, from 168 to 511 cells/muL. In a multivariate analysis, the treatment group did not affect the response of CD4(+) T cells; however, increased age, pretreatment with nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors, serological tests positive for hepatitis C virus, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stage C infection, lower baseline CD4(+) T cell count, and lower baseline HIV-1 RNA level were risk factors for smaller increases in CD4(+) T cell count. CONCLUSION: CD4(+) T cell recovery was similar in patients receiving nonboosted PI-, NNRTI-, and boosted PI-based cART.

A coronary heart disease risk model for predicting the effect of potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 infected men

BACKGROUND: Many HIV-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) experience metabolic complications including dyslipidaemia and insulin resistance, which may increase their coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. We developed a prognostic model for CHD tailored to the changes in risk factors observed in patients starting HAART. METHODS: Data from five cohort studies (British Regional Heart Study, Caerphilly and Speedwell Studies, Framingham Offspring Study, Whitehall II) on 13,100 men aged 40-70 and 114,443 years of follow up were used. CHD was defined as myocardial infarction or death from CHD. Model fit was assessed using the Akaike Information Criterion; generalizability across cohorts was examined using internal-external cross-validation. RESULTS: A parametric model based on the Gompertz distribution generalized best. Variables included in the model were systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, glucose, diabetes mellitus, body mass index and smoking status. Compared with patients not on HAART, the estimated CHD hazard ratio (HR) for patients on HAART was 1.46 (95% CI 1.15-1.86) for moderate and 2.48 (95% CI 1.76-3.51) for severe metabolic complications. CONCLUSIONS: The change in the risk of CHD in HIV-infected men starting HAART can be estimated based on typical changes in risk factors, assuming that HRs estimated using data from non-infected men are applicable to HIV-infected men. Based on this model the risk of CHD is likely to increase, but increases may often be modest, and could be offset by lifestyle changes.

Discordant responses to potent antiretroviral treatment in previously naive HIV-1-infected adults initiating treatment in resource-constrained countries: the antiretroviral therapy in low-income countries (ART-LINC) collaboration

OBJECTIVES: To assess the frequency of and risk factors for discordant responses at 6 months on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in previously treatment-naive HIV patients from resource-limited countries. METHODS: The Antiretroviral Therapy in Low-Income Countries Collaboration is a network of clinics providing care and treatment to HIV-infected patients in Africa, Latin America, and Asia. Patients who initiated therapy between 1996 and 2004, were aged 16 years or older, and had a baseline CD4 cell count were included in this analysis. Responses were defined based on plasma viral load (PVL) and CD4 cell count at 6 months as complete virologic and immunologic (VR(+)IR(+)), virologic only (VR(+)IR(-)), immunologic only (VR(-)IR(+)), and nonresponse (VR(-)IR(-)). Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess the association between therapy responses and clinical and demographic variables. RESULTS: Of the 3111 patients eligible for analysis, 1914 had available information at 6 months of therapy: 1074 (56.1%) were VR(+)IR(+), 364 (19.0%) were VR(+)IR(-), 283 (14.8%) were (VR(-)IR(+)), and 193 (10.1%) were VR(-)IR(-). OF THE 3111 patients eligible for analysis, 1914 had available information at 6 months of therapy: 1074 (56.1%) were VRIR, 364 (19.0%) were VRIR, 283 (14.8%) were (VRIR), and 193 (10.1%) were VRIR. Compared with complete responders, virologic-only responders were older, had a higher baseline CD4 cell count, had a lower baseline PVL, and were more likely to have received a nonstandard HAART regimen; immunologic-only responders were younger, had a lower baseline CD4 cell count, had a higher baseline PVL, and were more likely to have received a protease inhibitor-based regimen. CONCLUSIONS: The frequency of and risk factors for discordant responses were comparable to those observed in developed countries. Longer follow-up is needed to assess the long-term impact of discordant responses on mortality in these resource-limited settings.

Hypogonadism in HIV-1-infected men is common and does not resolve during antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVES: To assess the prevalence of abnormal testosterone and gonadotropin values in HIV-infected men before and after 2 years of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). DESIGN: Multicentre cohort of HIV-infected adults. METHODS: We identified 139 Caucasian antiretroviral-naive male patients who started zidovudine/ lamivudine-based cART that was virologically successful over a 2 year period. Ninety-seven were randomly chosen and plasma hormone determinations of free testosterone (fT) and luteinizing hormone (LH) at baseline and after 2 years of cART were evaluated. RESULTS: At baseline 68 patients (70%) had subnormal fT levels. In these, LH levels were low in 44%, normal in 47% and high in 9%. There was a trend for an association between lower CD4+ T-cell counts and hypogonadism. Most participants had normal FSH levels. No significant changes of fT, LH and FSH levels were observed after 2 years of cART. CONCLUSIONS: Low fT levels, mainly with normal or low LH levels and thus indicating secondary hypogonadism, are found in the majority of HIV-infected men and do not resolve during 2 years of successful cART.

Androgen and gonadotropin patterns differ in HIV-1-infected men who develop lipoatrophy during antiretroviral therapy: a case-control study

OBJECTIVES: We compared androgen and gonadotropin values in HIV-infected men who did and did not develop lipoatrophy on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). METHODS: From a population of 136 treatment-naïve male Caucasians under successful zidovudine/lamivudine-based cART, the 10 patients developing lipoatrophy (cases) were compared with 87 randomly chosen controls. Plasma levels of free testosterone (fT), dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), follicle-stimulating hormone and luteinizing hormone (LH) were measured at baseline and after 2 years of cART. RESULTS: At baseline, 60% of the cases and 71% of the controls showed abnormally low fT values. LH levels were normal or low in 67 and 94% of the patients, respectively, indicating a disturbance of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis. fT levels did not significantly change after 2 years of cART. Cases showed a significant increase in LH levels, while controls showed a significant increase in DHEA levels. In a multivariate logistic regression model, lipoatrophy was associated with higher baseline DHEA levels (P=0.04), an increase in LH levels during cART (P=0.001), a lower body mass index and greater age. CONCLUSIONS: Hypogonadism is present in the majority of HIV-infected patients. The development of cART-related lipoatrophy is associated with an increase in LH and a lack of increase in DHEA levels.

Mortality of HIV-infected patients starting antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: comparison with HIV-unrelated mortality

BACKGROUND: Mortality in HIV-infected patients who have access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (ART) has declined in sub-Saharan Africa, but it is unclear how mortality compares to the non-HIV-infected population. We compared mortality rates observed in HIV-1-infected patients starting ART with non-HIV-related background mortality in four countries in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Patients enrolled in antiretroviral treatment programmes in Côte d'Ivoire, Malawi, South Africa, and Zimbabwe were included. We calculated excess mortality rates and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Expected numbers of deaths were obtained using estimates of age-, sex-, and country-specific, HIV-unrelated, mortality rates from the Global Burden of Disease project. Among 13,249 eligible patients 1,177 deaths were recorded during 14,695 person-years of follow-up. The median age was 34 y, 8,831 (67%) patients were female, and 10,811 of 12,720 patients (85%) with information on clinical stage had advanced disease when starting ART. The excess mortality rate was 17.5 (95% CI 14.5-21.1) per 100 person-years SMR in patients who started ART with a CD4 cell count of less than 25 cells/microl and World Health Organization (WHO) stage III/IV, compared to 1.00 (0.55-1.81) per 100 person-years in patients who started with 200 cells/microl or above with WHO stage I/II. The corresponding SMRs were 47.1 (39.1-56.6) and 3.44 (1.91-6.17). Among patients who started ART with 200 cells/microl or above in WHO stage I/II and survived the first year of ART, the excess mortality rate was 0.27 (0.08-0.94) per 100 person-years and the SMR was 1.14 (0.47-2.77). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality of HIV-infected patients treated with combination ART in sub-Saharan Africa continues to be higher than in the general population, but for some patients excess mortality is moderate and reaches that of the general population in the second year of ART. Much of the excess mortality might be prevented by timely initiation of ART.

Prognosis of patients treated with cART from 36 months after initiation, according to current and previous CD4 cell count and plasma HIV-1 RNA measurements

OBJECTIVES: CD4 cell count and plasma viral load are well known predictors of AIDS and mortality in HIV-1-infected patients treated with combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). This study investigated, in patients treated for at least 3 years, the respective prognostic importance of values measured at cART initiation, and 6 and 36 months later, for AIDS and death. METHODS: Patients from 15 HIV cohorts included in the ART Cohort Collaboration, aged at least 16 years, antiretroviral-naive when they started cART and followed for at least 36 months after start of cART were eligible. RESULTS: Among 14 208 patients, the median CD4 cell counts at 0, 6 and 36 months were 210, 320 and 450 cells/microl, respectively, and 78% of patients achieved viral load less than 500 copies/ml at 6 months. In models adjusted for characteristics at cART initiation and for values at all time points, values at 36 months were the strongest predictors of subsequent rates of AIDS and death. Although CD4 cell count and viral load at cART initiation were no longer prognostic of AIDS or of death after 36 months, viral load at 6 months and change in CD4 cell count from 6 to 36 months were prognostic for rates of AIDS from 36 months. CONCLUSIONS: Although current values of CD4 cell count and HIV-1 RNA are the most important prognostic factors for subsequent AIDS and death rates in HIV-1-infected patients treated with cART, changes in CD4 cell count from 6 to 36 months and the value of 6-month HIV-1 RNA are also prognostic for AIDS.