Misleading Population Estimates: Biases and Consistency of Visual Surveys and Matrix Modelling in the Endangered Bearded Vulture

Conservation strategies for long-lived vertebrates require accurate estimates of parameters relative to the populations' size, numbers of non-breeding individuals (the “cryptic” fraction of the population) and the age structure. Frequently, visual survey techniques are used to make these estimates but the accuracy of these approaches is questionable, mainly because of the existence of numerous potential biases. Here we compare data on population trends and age structure in a bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population from visual surveys performed at supplementary feeding stations with data derived from population matrix-modelling approximations. Our results suggest that visual surveys overestimate the number of immature (<2 years old) birds, whereas subadults (3–5 y.o.) and adults (>6 y.o.) were underestimated in comparison with the predictions of a population model using a stable-age distribution. In addition, we found that visual surveys did not provide conclusive information on true variations in the size of the focal population. Our results suggest that although long-term studies (i.e. population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures) are a more time-consuming method, they provide more reliable and robust estimates of population parameters needed in designing and applying conservation strategies. The findings shown here are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share similar life-history traits and ecological requirements.

Corrected kriging update formulae for batch-sequential data assimilation

Recently, a lot of effort has been spent in the efficient computation of kriging predictors when observations are assimilated sequentially. In particular, kriging update formulae enabling significant computational savings were derived. Taking advantage of the previous kriging mean and variance computations helps avoiding a costly matrix inversion when adding one observation to the TeX already available ones. In addition to traditional update formulae taking into account a single new observation, Emery (2009) proposed formulae for the batch-sequential case, i.e. when TeX new observations are simultaneously assimilated. However, the kriging variance and covariance formulae given in Emery (2009) for the batch-sequential case are not correct. In this paper, we fix this issue and establish correct expressions for updated kriging variances and covariances when assimilating observations in parallel. An application in sequential conditional simulation finally shows that coupling update and residual substitution approaches may enable significant speed-ups.

Highly accurate isotope composition measurements by a miniature laser ablation mass spectrometer designed for in situ investigations on planetary surface

An experimental procedure for precise and accurate measurements of isotope abundances by a miniature laser ablation mass spectrometer for space research is described. The measurements were conducted on different untreated NIST standards and galena samples by applying pulsed UV laser radiation (266 nm, 3 ns and 20 Hz) for ablation, atomisation, and ionisation of the sample material. Mass spectra of released ions are measured by a reflectron-type time-of-flight mass analyser. A computer controlled performance optimiser was used to operate the system at maximum ion transmission and mass resolution. At optimal experimental conditions, the best relative accuracy and precision achieved for Pb isotope compositions are at the per mill level and were obtained in a range of applied laser irradiances and a defined number of accumulated spectra. A similar relative accuracy and precision was achieved in the study of Pb isotope compositions in terrestrial galena samples. The results for the galena samples are similar to those obtained with a thermal ionisation mass spectrometer (TIMS). The studies of the isotope composition of other elements yielded relative accuracy and precision at the per mill level too, with characteristic instrument parameters for each element. The relative accuracy and precision of the measurements is degrading with lower element/isotope concentration in a sample. For the elements with abundances below 100 ppm these values drop to the percent level. Depending on the isotopic abundances of Pb in minerals, 207Pb/206Pb ages with accuracy in the range of tens of millions of years can be achieved.

Episodic and long-lasting Paleozoic felsic magmatism in the pre-Alpine basement of the Suretta nappe (eastern Swiss Alps)

The Suretta nappe of eastern Switzerland contains a series of meta-igneous rocks, with the Rofna Porphyry Complex (RPC) being the most prominent member. We present LA-ICP-MS U–Pb zircon data from 12 samples representing a broad spectrum of meta-igneous rocks within the Suretta nappe, in order to unravel the pre-Alpine magmatic history of this basement unit. Fine-grained porphyries and coarse-grained augengneisses from the RPC give crystallization ages between 284 and 271 Ma, which either represent distinct magma pulses or long-lasting magmatic activity in a complex magma chamber. There is also evidence for an earlier Variscan magmatic event at ~320–310 Ma. Mylonites at the base of the Suretta nappe are probably derived from either the RPC augengneisses or another unknown Carboniferous–Permian magmatic protolith with a crystallization age between 320 and 290 Ma. Two polymetamorphic orthogneisses from the southern Suretta nappe yield crystallization ages of ~490 Ma. Inherited zircon cores are mainly of late Neoproterozoic age, with minor Neo- to Paleoproterozoic sources. We interpret the Suretta nappe as mainly representing a Gondwana-derived crustal unit, which was subsequently intruded by minor Cambrian–Ordovician and major Carboniferous–Permian magmatic rocks. Finally, the Suretta nappe was thrust into its present position during the Alpine orogeny, which hardly affected the U–Pb system in zircon.

Study of Heavy-ion Induced Fission for Heavy Element Synthesis

Fission fragment mass distributions were measured in heavy-ion induced fission of 238U. The mass distributions changed drastically with incident energy. The results are explained by a change of the ratio between fusion and quasifission with nuclear orientation. A calculation based on a fluctuation dissipation model reproduced the mass distributions and their incident energy dependence. Fusion probability was determined in the analysis. Evaporation residue cross sections were calculated with a statistical model for the reactions of 30Si+238U and 34S+238U using the obtained fusion probability in the entrance channel. The results agree with the measured cross sections of 263,264Sg and 267,268Hs, produced by 30Si+238U and 34S+238U, respectively. It is also suggested that sub-barrier energies can be used for heavy element synthesis.