Combining spatial-temporal and phylogenetic analysis approaches for improved understanding on global H5N1 transmission

Background Since late 2003, the highly pathogenic influenza A H5N1 had initiated several outbreak waves that swept across the Eurasia and Africa continents. Getting prepared for reassortment or mutation of H5N1 viruses has become a global priority. Although the spreading mechanism of H5N1 has been studied from different perspectives, its main transmission agents and spread route problems remain unsolved. Methodology/Principal Findings Based on a compilation of the time and location of global H5N1 outbreaks from November 2003 to December 2006, we report an interdisciplinary effort that combines the geospatial informatics approach with a bioinformatics approach to form an improved understanding on the transmission mechanisms of H5N1 virus. Through a spherical coordinate based analysis, which is not conventionally done in geographical analyses, we reveal obvious spatial and temporal clusters of global H5N1 cases on different scales, which we consider to be associated with two different transmission modes of H5N1 viruses. Then through an interdisciplinary study of both geographic and phylogenetic analysis, we obtain a H5N1 spreading route map. Our results provide insight on competing hypotheses as to which avian hosts are responsible for the spread of H5N1. Conclusions/Significance We found that although South China and Southeast Asia may be the virus pool of avian flu, East Siberia may be the source of the H5N1 epidemic. The concentration of migratory birds from different places increases the possibility of gene mutation. Special attention should be paid to East Siberia, Middle Siberia and South China for improved surveillance of H5N1 viruses and monitoring of migratory birds.

Mapping H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza risk in Southeast Asia

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus that emerged in southern China in the mid-1990s has in recent years evolved into the first HPAI panzootic. In many countries where the virus was detected, the virus was successfully controlled, whereas other countries face periodic reoccurrence despite significant control efforts. A central question is to understand the factors favoring the continuing reoccurrence of the virus. The abundance of domestic ducks, in particular free-grazing ducks feeding in intensive rice cropping areas, has been identified as one such risk factor based on separate studies carried out in Thailand and Vietnam. In addition, recent extensive progress was made in the spatial prediction of rice cropping intensity obtained through satellite imagery processing. This article analyses the statistical association between the recorded HPAI H5N1 virus presence and a set of five key environmental variables comprising elevation, human population, chicken numbers, duck numbers, and rice cropping intensity for three synchronous epidemic waves in Thailand and Vietnam. A consistent pattern emerges suggesting risk to be associated with duck abundance, human population, and rice cropping intensity in contrast to a relatively low association with chicken numbers. A statistical risk model based on the second epidemic wave data in Thailand is found to maintain its predictive power when extrapolated to Vietnam, which supports its application to other countries with similar agro-ecological conditions such as Laos or Cambodia. The model’s potential application to mapping HPAI H5N1 disease risk in Indonesia is discussed.

["Constanze": a trinational project on avian influenza in wild birds at Lake Constance]

When highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) arrived at Lake Constance in February 2006, little was known about its ecology and epidemiology in wild birds. In order to prevent virus transmission from wild birds to poultry, the adjacent countries initiated the tri-national, interdisciplinary research program <> to investigate avian influenza infections in water birds at Lake Constance. In collaboration with government agencies scientists examined the prevalence of AI virus in the region of Lake Constance for a period of 33 months, compared the effectiveness of different surveillance methods and analysed the migration behaviour of water birds. Although virus introduction from regions as far as the Ural Mountains seemed possible based on the migration behaviour of certain species, no influenza A viruses of the highly pathogenic subtype H5N1 (HPAIV) was found. However, influenza A viruses of different low pathogenic subtypes were isolated in 2.2 % of the sampled birds (swabs). Of the different surveillance methods utilised in the program the sampling of so called sentinel birds was particularly efficient.

Within-winter movements: a common phenomenon in the Common Pochard Aythya ferina

Waterbirds are often observed to move between different wintering sites within the same winter—for example, in response to food availability or weather conditions. Within-winter movements may contribute to the spreading of diseases, such as avian influenza, outside the actual migration period. The Common Pochard Aythya ferina seems to be particularly sensitive to infection with the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 and, consequently, could play an important role as vectors for the disease. We describe here the within-winter movements of Pochards in Europe in relation to topography, climate, sex and age. We analysed data provided by the Euring data bank on 201 individuals for which records from different locations from the same winter (December–February) were available. The distances and directions moved within the winter varied markedly between regions, which could be ascribed to the differing topography (coast lines, Alps). We found no significant differences in terms of distances and directions moved between the sexes and only weak indications of differences between the age classes. In Switzerland, juveniles moved in more westerly directions than adults. During relatively mild winters, winter harshness had no effect on the distances travelled, but in cold winters, a positive relationship was observed, a pattern possibly triggered by the freezing of lakes. Winter harshness did not influence the directions of the movement. About 41% (83/201) of the Pochards that were recovered at least 1 km from the ringing site had moved more than 200 km. A substantial number of birds moved between central/southern Europe and the north-western coast of mainland Europe, and between the north-western coast of mainland Europe and Great Britain, whereas no direct exchange between Great Britain and central/southern Europe was observed. Within-winter movements of Pochards seem to be a common phenomenon in all years and possibly occur as a response to the depletion of food resources. This high tendency to move could potentially contribute to the spread of bird-transmitted diseases outside the actual migration period.

Role of Urbanization, Land-Use Diversity, and Livestock Intensification in Zoonotic Emerging Infectious Diseases

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) continue to significantly threaten human and animal health. While there has been some progress in identifying underlying proximal driving forces and causal mechanisms of disease emergence, the role of distal factors is most poorly understood. This article focuses on analyzing the statistical association between highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and urbanization, land-use diversity and poultry intensification. A special form of the urban transition—peri-urbanization—was hypothesized as being associated with ‘hot-spots’ of disease emergence. Novel metrics were used to characterize these distal risk factors. Our models, which combined these newly proposed risk factors with previously known natural and human risk factors, had a far higher predictive performance compared to published models for the first two epidemiological waves in Viet Nam. We found that when relevant risk factors are taken into account, urbanization is generally not a significant independent risk factor. However, urbanization spatially combines other risk factors leading to peri-urban places being the most likely ‘hot-spots’. The work highlights that peri-urban areas have highest levels of chicken density, duck and geese flock size diversity, fraction of land under rice, fraction of land under aquaculture compared to rural and urban areas. Land-use diversity, which has previously never been studied in the context of HPAI H5N1, was found to be a significant risk factor. Places where intensive and extensive forms of poultry production are collocated were found to be at greater risk.

Biological and protective properties of immune sera directed to the influenza virus neuraminidase

The envelope of influenza A viruses contains two large antigens, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Conventional influenza virus vaccines induce neutralizing antibodies that are predominantly directed to the HA globular head, a domain that is subject to extensive antigenic drift. Antibodies directed to NA are induced at much lower levels, probably as a consequence of the immunodominance of the HA antigen. Although antibodies to NA may affect virus release by inhibiting the sialidase function of the glycoprotein, the antigen has been largely neglected in past vaccine design. In this study, we characterized the protective properties of monospecific immune sera that were generated by vaccination with recombinant RNA replicon particles encoding NA. These immune sera inhibited hemagglutination in an NA subtype-specific and HA subtype-independent manner and interfered with infection of MDCK cells. In addition, they inhibited the sialidase activities of various influenza viruses of the same and even different NA subtypes. With this, the anti-NA immune sera inhibited the spread of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus and HA/NA-pseudotyped viruses in MDCK cells in a concentration-dependent manner. When chickens were immunized with NA recombinant replicon particles and subsequently infected with low-pathogenic avian influenza virus, inflammatory serum markers were significantly reduced and virus shedding was limited or eliminated. These findings suggest that NA antibodies can inhibit virus dissemination by interfering with both virus attachment and egress. Our results underline the potential of high-quality NA antibodies for controlling influenza virus replication and place emphasis on NA as a vaccine antigen. IMPORTANCE The neuraminidase of influenza A viruses is a sialidase that acts as a receptor-destroying enzyme facilitating the release of progeny virus from infected cells. Here, we demonstrate that monospecific anti-NA immune sera inhibited not only sialidase activity, but also influenza virus hemagglutination and infection of MDCK cells, suggesting that NA antibodies can interfere with virus attachment. Inhibition of both processes, virus release and virus binding, may explain why NA antibodies efficiently blocked virus dissemination in vitro and in vivo. Anti-NA immune sera showed broader reactivity than anti-HA sera in hemagglutination inhibition tests and demonstrated cross-subtype activity in sialidase inhibition tests. These remarkable features of NA antibodies highlight the importance of the NA antigen for the development of next-generation influenza virus vaccines.