Spatial heterogeneity and lake morphology affect diffusive greenhouse gas emission estimates of lakes

Most estimates of diffusive flux (F) of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) from lakes are based on single-point flux chamber measurements or on piston velocity (k) modeled from wind speed and single-point measurements of surface water gas concentrations (C-aq). We analyzed spatial variability of F of CH4 and CO2, as well as C-aq and k in 22 European lakes during late summer. F and k were higher in the lake centers, leading to considerable bias when extrapolating single-point chamber measurements to whole-lake estimates. The ratio of our empirical k estimates to wind speed-modeled k was related to lake size and shape, suggesting a lake morphology effect on the relationship between wind speed and k. This indicates that the error inherent to established wind speed models can be reduced by determining k and C-aq at multiple sites on lakes to calibrate wind speed-modeled k to the local system.

Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis

The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm, 25 ± 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 ± 12% and the land the remainder (16 ± 14%). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 ± 0.12 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency, is 92.5 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr. The integrated CO2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the time horizon.

Are Greenhouse Gas Signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm?

For Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone activity, the dependency of a potential anthropogenic climate change signal on the identification method applied is analysed. This study investigates the impact of the used algorithm on the changing signal, not the robustness of the climate change signal itself. Using one single transient AOGCM simulation as standard input for eleven state-of-the-art identification methods, the patterns of model simulated present day climatologies are found to be close to those computed from re-analysis, independent of the method applied. Although differences in the total number of cyclones identified exist, the climate change signals (IPCC SRES A1B) in the model run considered are largely similar between methods for all cyclones. Taking into account all tracks, decreasing numbers are found in the Mediterranean, the Arctic in the Barents and Greenland Seas, the mid-latitude Pacific and North America. Changing patterns are even more similar, if only the most severe systems are considered: the methods reveal a coherent statistically significant increase in frequency over the eastern North Atlantic and North Pacific. We found that the differences between the methods considered are largely due to the different role of weaker systems in the specific methods.

Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework1. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4–0.5 °C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8–1.0 °C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22–27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.

Oxygen and indicators of stress for marine life in multi-model global warming projections

Decadal-to-century scale trends for a range of marine environmental variables in the upper mesopelagic layer (UML, 100–600 m) are investigated using results from seven Earth System Models forced by a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. The models as a class represent the observation-based distribution of oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2), albeit major mismatches between observation-based and simulated values remain for individual models. By year 2100 all models project an increase in SST between 2 °C and 3 °C, and a decrease in the pH and in the saturation state of water with respect to calcium carbonate minerals in the UML. A decrease in the total ocean inventory of dissolved oxygen by 2% to 4% is projected by the range of models. Projected O2 changes in the UML show a complex pattern with both increasing and decreasing trends reflecting the subtle balance of different competing factors such as circulation, production, remineralization, and temperature changes. Projected changes in the total volume of hypoxic and suboxic waters remain relatively small in all models. A widespread increase of CO2 in the UML is projected. The median of the CO2 distribution between 100 and 600m shifts from 0.1–0.2 mol m−3 in year 1990 to 0.2–0.4 mol m−3 in year 2100, primarily as a result of the invasion of anthropogenic carbon from the atmosphere. The co-occurrence of changes in a range of environmental variables indicates the need to further investigate their synergistic impacts on marine ecosystems and Earth System feedbacks.

Protecting Tropical Forests through Public Procurement of Emission Reductions

The rate of destruction of tropical forests continues to accelerate at an alarming rate contributing to an important fraction of overall greenhouse gas emissions. In recent years, much hope has been vested in the emerging REDD+ framework under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which aims at creating an international incentive system to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. This paper argues that in the absence of an international consensus on the design of results-based payments, “bottom-up” initiatives should take the lead and explore new avenues. It suggests that a call for tender for REDD+ credits might both assist in leveraging private investments and spending scarce public funds in a cost-efficient manner. The paper discusses the pros and cons of results-based approaches, provides an overview of the goals and principles that govern public procurement and discusses their relevance for the purchase of REDD+ credits, in particular within the ambit of the European Union.

Validation of the Swiss methane emission inventory by atmospheric observations and inverse modelling

Atmospheric inverse modelling has the potential to provide observation-based estimates of greenhouse gas emissions at the country scale, thereby allowing for an independent validation of national emission inventories. Here, we present a regional-scale inverse modelling study to quantify the emissions of methane (CH₄) from Switzerland, making use of the newly established CarboCount-CH measurement network and a high-resolution Lagrangian transport model. In our reference inversion, prior emissions were taken from the "bottom-up" Swiss Greenhouse Gas Inventory (SGHGI) as published by the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment in 2014 for the year 2012. Overall we estimate national CH₄ emissions to be 196 ± 18 Gg yr⁻¹ for the year 2013 (1σ uncertainty). This result is in close agreement with the recently revised SGHGI estimate of 206 ± 33 Gg yr⁻¹ as reported in 2015 for the year 2012. Results from sensitivity inversions using alternative prior emissions, uncertainty covariance settings, large-scale background mole fractions, two different inverse algorithms (Bayesian and extended Kalman filter), and two different transport models confirm the robustness and independent character of our estimate. According to the latest SGHGI estimate the main CH₄ source categories in Switzerland are agriculture (78 %), waste handling (15 %) and natural gas distribution and combustion (6 %). The spatial distribution and seasonal variability of our posterior emissions suggest an overestimation of agricultural CH₄ emissions by 10 to 20 % in the most recent SGHGI, which is likely due to an overestimation of emissions from manure handling. Urban areas do not appear as emission hotspots in our posterior results, suggesting that leakages from natural gas distribution are only a minor source of CH₄ in Switzerland. This is consistent with rather low emissions of 8.4 Gg yr⁻¹ reported by the SGHGI but inconsistent with the much higher value of 32 Gg yr⁻¹ implied by the EDGARv4.2 inventory for this sector. Increased CH₄ emissions (up to 30 % compared to the prior) were deduced for the north-eastern parts of Switzerland. This feature was common to most sensitivity inversions, which is a strong indicator that it is a real feature and not an artefact of the transport model and the inversion system. However, it was not possible to assign an unambiguous source process to the region. The observations of the CarboCount-CH network provided invaluable and independent information for the validation of the national bottom-up inventory. Similar systems need to be sustained to provide independent monitoring of future climate agreements.

Three decades of global methane sources and sinks

Methane is an important greenhouse gas, responsible for about 20 of the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times. By reacting with hydroxyl radicals, methane reduces the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and generates ozone in the troposphere. Although most sources and sinks of methane have been identified, their relative contributions to atmospheric methane levels are highly uncertain. As such, the factors responsible for the observed stabilization of atmospheric methane levels in the early 2000s, and the renewed rise after 2006, remain unclear. Here, we construct decadal budgets for methane sources and sinks between 1980 and 2010, using a combination of atmospheric measurements and results from chemical transport models, ecosystem models, climate chemistry models and inventories of anthropogenic emissions. The resultant budgets suggest that data-driven approaches and ecosystem models overestimate total natural emissions. We build three contrasting emission scenarios � which differ in fossil fuel and microbial emissions � to explain the decadal variability in atmospheric methane levels detected, here and in previous studies, since 1985. Although uncertainties in emission trends do not allow definitive conclusions to be drawn, we show that the observed stabilization of methane levels between 1999 and 2006 can potentially be explained by decreasing-to-stable fossil fuel emissions, combined with stable-to-increasing microbial emissions. We show that a rise in natural wetland emissions and fossil fuel emissions probably accounts for the renewed increase in global methane levels after 2006, although the relative contribution of these two sources remains uncertain.

Isotopic constraints on marine and terrestrial N2O emissions during the last deglaciation

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting substance that has anthropogenic as well as natural marine and terrestrial sources. The tropospheric N2O concentrations have varied substantially in the past in concert with changing climate on glacial–interglacial and millennial timescales. It is not well understood, however, how N2O emissions from marine and terrestrial sources change in response to varying environmental conditions. The distinct isotopic compositions of marine and terrestrial N2O sources can help disentangle the relative changes in marine and terrestrial N2O emissions during past climate variations. Here we present N2O concentration and isotopic data for the last deglaciation, from 16,000 to 10,000 years before present, retrieved from air bubbles trapped in polar ice at Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. With the help of our data and a box model of the N2O cycle, we find a 30 per cent increase in total N2O emissions from the late glacial to the interglacial, with terrestrial and marine emissions contributing equally to the overall increase and generally evolving in parallel over the last deglaciation, even though there is no a priori connection between the drivers of the two sources. However, we find that terrestrial emissions dominated on centennial timescales, consistent with a state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation and land surface process model that suggests that during the last deglaciation emission changes were strongly influenced by temperature and precipitation patterns over land surfaces. The results improve our understanding of the drivers of natural N2O emissions and are consistent with the idea that natural N2O emissions will probably increase in response to anthropogenic warming.

Natural and anthropogenic methane fluxes in Eurasia: a mesoscale quantification by generalized atmospheric inversion

Eight surface observation sites providing quasi-continuous measurements of atmospheric methane mixingratios have been operated since the mid-2000’s in Siberia. For the first time in a single work, we assimilate 1 year of these in situ observations in an atmospheric inversion. Our objective is to quantify methane surface fluxes from anthropogenic and wetland sources at the mesoscale in the Siberian lowlands for the year 2010. To do so, we first inquire about the way the inversion uses the observations and the way the fluxes are constrained by the observation sites. As atmospheric inver- sions at the mesoscale suffer from mis-quantified sources of uncertainties, we follow recent innovations in inversion techniques and use a new inversion approach which quantifies the uncertainties more objectively than the previous inversion systems. We find that, due to errors in the representation of the atmospheric transport and redundant pieces of information, only one observation every few days is found valuable by the inversion. The remaining high-resolution quasi-continuous signal is representative of very local emission patterns difficult to analyse with a mesoscale system. An analysis of the use of information by the inversion also reveals that the observation sites constrain methane emissions within a radius of 500 km. More observation sites than the ones currently in operation are then necessary to constrain the whole Siberian lowlands. Still, the fluxes within the constrained areas are quantified with objectified uncertainties. Finally, the tolerance intervals for posterior methane fluxes are of roughly 20 % (resp. 50 %) of the fluxes for anthropogenic (resp. wetland) sources. About 50–70 % of Siberian lowlands emissions are constrained by the inversion on average on an annual basis. Extrapolating the figures on the constrained areas to the whole Siberian lowlands, we find a regional methane budget of 5–28 TgCH4 for the year 2010, i.e. 1–5 % of the global methane emissions. As very few in situ observations are available in the region of interest, observations of methane total columns from the Greenhouse Gas Observing SATellite (GOSAT) are tentatively used for the evaluation of the inversion results, but they exhibit only a marginal signal from the fluxes within the region of interest.

Spatial assessment of carbon stocks of living vegetation at the national level in Lao PDR

The international mechanism for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) supposedly offers new opportunities for combining climate mitigation, conservation of the environment, and socio-economic development for development countries. In Laos REDD is abundantly promoted by the government and development agencies as a potential option for rural development. Yet, basic information for carbon management is missing: to date no knowledge is available at the national level on the quantities of carbon stored in the Lao landscapes. In this study we present an approach for spatial assessment of vegetation-based carbon stocks. We used Google Earth, Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery and refined the official national land cover data to assess carbon stocks. Our study showed that more than half (52%) of carbon stock of Laos is stored in natural forests, but that 70% of this stock is located outside of national protected areas. On the basis of two carbon-centered land use scenarios we calculated that between 30 and 40 million tons of carbon could be accumulated in shifting cultivation areas; this is less than 3% of the existing total stock. Our study suggests that the main focus of REDD in Laos should be on the conservation of existing carbon stocks, giving highest priority to the prevention of deforestation outside of national protected areas.